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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651359 times)
molecular
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March 27, 2013, 07:04:42 PM
 #16061

$9.5M vs 45k BTC

no post for over one hour. Is this alarming? Sell!

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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Make sure you back up your wallet regularly! With Bitcoin-Qt, it needs to be backed up at least as often as every 100 transactions (both sends and receipts) or new addresses.
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March 27, 2013, 07:07:18 PM
 #16062

100k btc sell off would only take us down to $50, that's some crazy strength considering how recently we broke 50

(1470) <KLYE> But I was far too drunk to fuck a midget
(1470) <KLYE> I will fuck a chicken for 250 btc
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March 27, 2013, 07:08:56 PM
 #16063

100k btc sell off would only take us down to $50, that's some crazy strength considering how recently we broke 50

And the market would also rebound so fast no one would hardly notice.

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March 27, 2013, 07:14:16 PM
 #16064

100k btc sell off would only take us down to $50, that's some crazy strength considering how recently we broke 50

And the market would also rebound so fast no one would hardly notice.

If that happens the bubble popped. And will subsequently go lower than that.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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March 27, 2013, 07:15:21 PM
 #16065

100k btc sell off would only take us down to $50, that's some crazy strength considering how recently we broke 50

And the market would also rebound so fast no one would hardly notice.

If that happens the bubble popped. And will subsequently go lower than that.

The market rebounding would be a bubble pop? Color me unimpressed with your bearishness.

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March 27, 2013, 07:16:46 PM
 #16066

100k btc sell off would only take us down to $50, that's some crazy strength considering how recently we broke 50

And the market would also rebound so fast no one would hardly notice.

If that happens the bubble popped. And will subsequently go lower than that.

The market rebounding would be a bubble pop? Color me unimpressed with your bearishness.

That's how trend following trading strategies determine their exit.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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March 27, 2013, 07:23:26 PM
 #16067

I have two transactions over hours still 0 confirmations (2 different source wallets)

are we experiencing another event like the fork?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156942.msg1688304#msg1688304

Donations: 1JVhKjUKSjBd7fPXQJsBs5P3Yphk38AqPr - TIPS
the hacks, the hacks, secure your bits!
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March 27, 2013, 07:24:58 PM
 #16068

100k btc sell off would only take us down to $50, that's some crazy strength considering how recently we broke 50

And the market would also rebound so fast no one would hardly notice.

If that happens the bubble popped. And will subsequently go lower than that.

The market rebounding would be a bubble pop? Color me unimpressed with your bearishness.

That's how trend following trading strategies determine their exit.



Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

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March 27, 2013, 07:26:58 PM
 #16069

Premise #1: New investors help drive up the price of Bitcoin.

Premise #2: Capital is fearful.  It runs away at the slightest hint of risk.

Conclusion: It is in the long-term interest of those who are long Bitcoin to try to prevent any significant dips, as they tend to scare away new investors.  

Proposed new investment strategy:
1.  Everyone on this thread temporarily convert 10% of their BTC holdings into USD (or the fiat of your choice) at Mt.Gox (or the exchange of your choice).
2.  Place a buy order backed by that fiat at 10% below the current price.
3.  As the price goes up, keep adjusting your buy order upwards.
4.  If the price dips significantly, the buy orders will execute, hopefully arresting the downward trend.

I say it's better to be 90% invested in a long, sustained rally than 100% invested in a choppy market that scares away new investors.

Who is with me?

Tips much appreciated! 1PPJHDawPvjh6MEzsvXrMYLgpLmyAaNXUc
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March 27, 2013, 07:27:16 PM
 #16070

I have two transactions over hours still 0 confirmations (2 different source wallets)

are we experiencing another event like the fork?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156942.msg1688304#msg1688304

No the blocks are almost full.  Include a fee next time, or a larger fee if it's important to confirm quickly.  

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mccorvic
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March 27, 2013, 07:27:37 PM
 #16071

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

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March 27, 2013, 07:30:38 PM
 #16072

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

#4 This Time It's Different.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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March 27, 2013, 07:31:22 PM
 #16073

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

#4 This Time It's Different.

Please quote the part that references bitcoin.

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Ozymandias
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March 27, 2013, 07:34:36 PM
 #16074

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

#4 This Time It's Different.

3. Everyone Seems to Be Ignoring the Fundamentals

Only the bears seem to be ignoring/not understanding the fundamentals, which is why I guess only the bears have been seeing a bubble since the 20s

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March 27, 2013, 07:34:52 PM
 #16075

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

#4 This Time It's Different.

Please quote the part that references bitcoin.

Of course bitcoin going up, uP UP forever.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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March 27, 2013, 07:35:56 PM
 #16076

Big fight going on between $87 and $89. Wonder which side will win out in the short term.

Help pay for my BTCCharts.com subscription: 1DTannerQHQD7qjSmA3abLQaDkVFLnBGma
Piper67
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March 27, 2013, 07:36:40 PM
 #16077

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

#4 This Time It's Different.

3. Everyone Seems to Be Ignoring the Fundamentals

Only the bears seem to be ignoring/not understanding the fundamentals, which is why I guess only the bears have been seeing a bubble since the 20s

Nope, they've been calling a bubble since it reached par with the USD back in early 2011. Same arguments, not an iota changed between then and now.
Piper67
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March 27, 2013, 07:39:29 PM
 #16078

Bull tip: classic market strategies are meaningless in the current bitcoin market. Something dead obvious since  $15.

Hey! What are you doing bringing rational thought and logic into this thread! Don't you know that makes the bears lose all control of their bladder?

#4 This Time It's Different.

Please quote the part that references bitcoin.

Of course bitcoin going up, uP UP forever.

This is the fallacy in your argument. No one is claiming Bitcoin will go up forever. But that or a bubble that pops back to zero are NOT the only two alternatives. Bitcoin could go up and up for a while, then go up more slowly, then plateau, then go up only to catch up with the inflation of the fiat currencies against which it is compared. That's quite a feasible future, just not in you religious, authority-inspired outlook.
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March 27, 2013, 07:45:21 PM
 #16079

This is the fallacy in your argument. No one is claiming Bitcoin will go up forever. But that or a bubble that pops back to zero are NOT the only two alternatives. Bitcoin could go up and up for a while, then go up more slowly, then plateau, then go up only to catch up with the inflation of the fiat currencies against which it is compared. That's quite a feasible future, just not in you religious, authority-inspired outlook.

What you basically are saying it will go up forever. Just at different speeds?
That's still the same issue.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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March 27, 2013, 07:51:08 PM
 #16080

This is the fallacy in your argument. No one is claiming Bitcoin will go up forever. But that or a bubble that pops back to zero are NOT the only two alternatives. Bitcoin could go up and up for a while, then go up more slowly, then plateau, then go up only to catch up with the inflation of the fiat currencies against which it is compared. That's quite a feasible future, just not in you religious, authority-inspired outlook.

What you basically are saying it will go up forever. Just at different speeds?
That's still the same issue.

Yes, I can point you to other things that go up forever, just at different speeds. Human population, for example, or the rate of devaluation of the USD. This really is no shocking surprise. The basic problem is that you're arguing from two positions (today) that are rather infantile: 1) There's this article that says here's how you can tell you're in a bubble (appeal to authority) and 2) if this isn't a bubble, Bitcoin will just keep rising at this rate forever (strawman).

You do a couple of other tricks that have been fairly well understood since the inquisition, like reversing the onus of proof.

This is quite plain for anyone who understands the mechanisms of fallacies. Google Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit.

What you are specifically NOT arguing is how or by what mechanism Bitcoin will fail. If you were, that could be an argument worth having. As it is, it's like trying to argue the existence of god against a devout Christian, a complete waste of time.
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