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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1805446 times)
thoughtfan
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April 01, 2013, 05:39:06 PM
 #17181

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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mp420
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April 01, 2013, 05:51:13 PM
 #17182

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.
thoughtfan
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April 01, 2013, 06:27:56 PM
 #17183

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.
Maybe we're talking cross purposes here.  If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'.  Sorry I'm confused!

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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April 01, 2013, 06:42:45 PM
 #17184

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.
Maybe we're talking cross purposes here.  If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'.  Sorry I'm confused!

I believe there's a non-zero chance that Bitcoin will be priced much higher in the distant future. This is why I have bitcoins in the first place.

I also believe that we will experience bubbles. Wherever there is an immature market with lots of layman traders there will be bubbles.

The bubbles and crashes make it possible for people like me to make money by selling into downtrends and  buying back after the tide turns.
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April 01, 2013, 06:45:48 PM
 #17185

I'm wondering what the average amount of money is those standing in line at MtGox are going to invest in Bitcoin. $1000 perhaps?

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

I would say you are totally wrong, if you'd check the forums in Spanish, Italian, etc. you'd see  plenty of single-figures-post-count newbies going through the MtGox verification to invest just a few hundreds of euro, and there are more of them every day - just because MtGox is still the market leader in terms of volume. And then check the average transactions happening in EUR at bitcoinity.org, they are quite low - is very very very unlikely that the average quantity to invest for european newcomers is $25K.

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April 01, 2013, 06:46:03 PM
 #17186

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.
Maybe we're talking cross purposes here.  If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'.  Sorry I'm confused!

This is poker, no information beforehand will give you any hints about the peak. Selling all at the absolute peak is a fantasy. Selling some with every increase is the way to go, not perfect but proffitable in the long run.

If the price at some point falls back to a previous support level, you can buy some back at a discount!

                                                                               
                
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                                     ▄▄███▀▀╙      ▄██  ▓█                     
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                        ,▄▌███▀▀¬              ▓█▀     █▄                      
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                              ,,╓╓█▓▄▌   █▌    ▐█U                             
                        º▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓███   ▀█    █▌                              
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                                ▐███      ▀██Ñ                                 
                                            ▀                             

thoughtfan
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April 01, 2013, 06:51:29 PM
 #17187

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.
Maybe we're talking cross purposes here.  If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'.  Sorry I'm confused!

I believe there's a non-zero chance that Bitcoin will be priced much higher in the distant future. This is why I have bitcoins in the first place.

I also believe that we will experience bubbles. Wherever there is an immature market with lots of layman traders there will be bubbles.

The bubbles and crashes make it possible for people like me to make money by selling into downtrends and  buying back after the tide turns.
Now I've got you.  Many here are very sure of the way things are going to go - and many of these contradict one another.  Therefore it is sometimes not clear which future the person writing is talking about.  Your use of 'eventual peak' suggested to me you were thinking it would crash and fizzle to its eventual demise after that.  Now it is obvious it is not the case so I'd therefore suggest your use of the word 'eventual' wasn't helpful?

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
thoughtfan
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April 01, 2013, 06:55:55 PM
 #17188


This is poker, no information beforehand will give you any hints about the peak. Selling all at the absolute peak is a fantasy. Selling some with every increase is the way to go, not perfect but proffitable in the long run.

If the price at some point falls back to a previous support level, you can buy some back at a discount!
Bear in mind the 'no information beforehand' includes not knowing whether when you have sold 'with every increase' that you will get an opportunity to buy back in lower.  Guessing those 'support levels' and dips is a different version of the same game as guessing the peaks!

If Bitcoin does have a big future then there's a reasonable chance that buying and holding will be more profitable.  At least it is a simpler game to play Smiley

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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April 01, 2013, 06:58:44 PM
 #17189

its always a good time to buy bitcoin,

because people dont want to buy into bitcoin right now, because they are scared that their money will not be safe long term. in 10Years bitcoin will be a proven method of exchanging / storing wealth, and at that time a good % of worlds transactions will be in done in bitcoin, %1 of worlds weath expressed in BTC / LTC, and i would expect a bubble on the 12th year. maybe i'll sell my house for 200BTC so i can move into my 250BTC house  Cheesy

so ya its always a good time to buy... bitcoin is and will always be undervalued, Especially so when early adopters sell large coins  Wink

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April 01, 2013, 07:02:48 PM
 #17190

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

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April 01, 2013, 07:39:58 PM
 #17191

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

6k Support wall at $100 already.

- aka The "DigiMan"
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April 01, 2013, 07:41:57 PM
 #17192

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

I think a big wave down is coming.  Based on PWT, of course.
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April 01, 2013, 07:44:01 PM
 #17193

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

I think a big wave down is coming.  Based on PWT, of course.
Maybe after we hit $200 first?

- aka The "DigiMan"
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April 01, 2013, 07:45:31 PM
 #17194

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

I think a big wave down is coming.  Based on PWT, of course.

PWT = Pretty Wrong Track record
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April 01, 2013, 07:45:39 PM
 #17195

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

I think a big wave down is coming.  Based on PWT, of course.

You think that? Truly, a ground breaking prediction!   Grin

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April 01, 2013, 07:48:15 PM
 #17196

The price, being a little fluffy at the moment, is susceptible to bad news. Bitcoin Central and/or Instawallet getting raided and losing everyone's money would cause a news splash and a crash, especially since it throws cold water on the "move your money out of banks and into Bitcoin" theme that the media is running with. It would be a great buying op, could take us down to $60. Otherwise, we're likely to continue this meteoric rise.
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April 01, 2013, 07:50:04 PM
 #17197

The price, being a little fluffy at the moment, is susceptible to bad news. Bitcoin Central and/or Instawallet getting raided and losing everyone's money would cause a news splash and a crash, especially since it throws cold water on the "move your money out of banks and into Bitcoin" theme that the media is running with. It would be a great buying op, could take us down to $60. Otherwise, we're likely to continue this meteoric rise.

Unless the hypothetical thief dumps all his coins at once I doubt we'll see anything to crazy.  The fork issue was a MUCH larger test of bitcoin than this.

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April 01, 2013, 07:54:56 PM
 #17198

Second wave successfully started.

Bids still at 10mil mark, asks never went up past 50k and beginning to falter again. 

I think a big wave down is coming.  Based on PWT, of course.

At some point this is getting ridiculous.

Of course you will be right given enough time and enough leeway to interpret the term "big".

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April 01, 2013, 07:59:16 PM
 #17199

The price, being a little fluffy at the moment, is susceptible to bad news. Bitcoin Central and/or Instawallet getting raided and losing everyone's money would cause a news splash and a crash, especially since it throws cold water on the "move your money out of banks and into Bitcoin" theme that the media is running with. It would be a great buying op, could take us down to $60. Otherwise, we're likely to continue this meteoric rise.

Unless the hypothetical thief dumps all his coins at once I doubt we'll see anything to crazy.  The fork issue was a MUCH larger test of bitcoin than this.

I'm not sure, this may be true for us in the know how bad a double spend is. I doubt the general population can even relate to what that problem is. They can however relate to "BITCOIN HACKED UNSAFE SELL!" as we've witnessed before. I still doubt a large effect, though.

EDIT: journalists own coins Wink

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April 01, 2013, 08:05:50 PM
 #17200

The price, being a little fluffy at the moment, is susceptible to bad news. Bitcoin Central and/or Instawallet getting raided and losing everyone's money would cause a news splash and a crash, especially since it throws cold water on the "move your money out of banks and into Bitcoin" theme that the media is running with. It would be a great buying op, could take us down to $60. Otherwise, we're likely to continue this meteoric rise.

Unless the hypothetical thief dumps all his coins at once I doubt we'll see anything to crazy.  The fork issue was a MUCH larger test of bitcoin than this.

It's all about how they spin it. BC partnering with a bank stood out as huge for some people, and it hurts extra because we're riding the Cyprus wave. Depends on how bad the hack was, too. People would say, "What's the difference if my money gets haircutted or hacked away?"
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