Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[notme]

FYI the search rate has gone from huge over the last few months to bananas

Still not quite up to 2011 levels, but a slightly lower slope, so hopefully we can pass it up and keep trucking.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2010%2040m&cmpt=q

[lebing]

FYI the search rate has gone from huge over the last few months to bananas

Still not quite up to 2011 levels, but a slightly lower slope, so hopefully we can pass it up and keep trucking.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2010%2040m&cmpt=q

*Ahem*

[Crazy]

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.

[thoughtfan]

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.

Although some are making the claim that the rise in price is due to panicking Cypriots buying Bitcoin I think the more credible (though not convincing to me) claim made is that the Cyprus situation is giving the other countries, particularly southern European weaker Euro nations the jitters with respect to what will happen in theirs.

But the search results don't appear to back this up either.  Maybe to the extent the Cyprus story is having an impact it's more likely that it is reaffirming the pre-existing beliefs of people world-over who see the banks and traditional currencies as being in a precarious position thereby increasing their confidence (and holding) in Bitcoin.  And given that a reasonably high proportion of such people know enough about and/or are involved with Bitcoin already then this wouldn't necessarily show up in the search statistics.  But then again my theory, by my having nothing of substance to support it, is pure conjecture too

And in the meantime the oversimplified version doesn't need to be true to sell papers/TV news slots providing it makes a good story!

[solex]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

[oakpacific]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

[foo]

"MtGox Verification Queue: Over 8300"

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bcg14/mtgox_verification_queue_over_8300/

[oakpacific]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

Also interesting stat, in Tanzania there are 1608 Mac installations, and only 1 Windows installation, is it one single person responsible for all this?

[thoughtfan]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

And this makes the case that nobody should take my hypotheses too seriously because it didn't even cross my mind to take this into consideration!

Regarding the additional downloads from Cyprus isn't it just as likely to have arisen out of the news claims of Cypriots putting their savings into Bitcoin rather than the other way round?

[rpietila]

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.

Go Finland! Rule the world with the might Mathematics has bestowed on you!

[oakpacific]

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.

Go Finland! Rule the world with the might Mathematics has bestowed on you!

Spain triumphs you! But again, Finland doesn't need to prove itself.

[oakpacific]

This is the Spanish data, behold.

[solex]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

And this makes the case that nobody should take my hypotheses too seriously because it didn't even cross my mind to take this into consideration!

Regarding the additional downloads from Cyprus isn't it just as likely to have arisen out of the news claims of Cypriots putting their savings into Bitcoin rather than the other way round?

Cyprus population (south) about 850,000, so indeed, they have the highest number of downloads of the bitcoin client per capita. That is significant!
Slovenia (pop 2m) has the same number of downloads, also high per capita. And this country is next up on the euro hangman's gallows.

[oakpacific]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

And this makes the case that nobody should take my hypotheses too seriously because it didn't even cross my mind to take this into consideration!

Regarding the additional downloads from Cyprus isn't it just as likely to have arisen out of the news claims of Cypriots putting their savings into Bitcoin rather than the other way round?

Cyprus population (south) about 850,000, so indeed, they have the highest number of downloads of the bitcoin client per capita. That is significant!
Slovenia (pop 2m) has the same number of downloads, also high per capita. And this country is next up on the euro hangman's gallows.

Now since they obviously record individual IPs, why can't sourceforge publish stats of them? Then we can have a general idea of the number of bitcoin users in the world.

[ErisDiscordia]

Any ideas on how come Slovakia and Czech republic are that high on the list? Quite unexpected. What's going on there?

[solex]

Now since they obviously record individual IPs, why can't sourceforge publish stats of them? Then we can have a general idea of the number of bitcoin users in the world.

That info might be available to the Bitcoin admin team on sourceforge. But a lot of users won't run a full client, they will just have a web wallet and manage their coins from it. Blockchain has about 150k wallet users.

[ManBearPig]

I'm willing to bet a large chunk of Cypriots interested in moving money out of the country are already in another country themselves. North and East London have massive Cypriot communities, most of them with local businesses and hence money in the 'old country'.

Also, Geo-locating IPs is becoming less reliable as IP4 addresses dry up.

[molecular]

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

It would be cool to see these numbers normalized to population.

Cyprus has a population of less than 900,000. You wouldn't expect it to be close in number of downloads to Korea (50 million people), but it is.

Journalists exaggerate and sometimes even make stuff up. I guess in this case you could say it's just exaggeration.

[molecular]

"MtGox Verification Queue: Over 8300"

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bcg14/mtgox_verification_queue_over_8300/

I'm still not sure what to make of this. If I understand correctly verification is necessary only to withdraw money and to deposit more than $50,000. I doubt these 8000 people want to really deposit more than 50,000. Maybe these are mainly people who want to be able to withdraw fiat?

[randomguy7]

"MtGox Verification Queue: Over 8300"

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bcg14/mtgox_verification_queue_over_8300/

I'm still not sure what to make of this. If I understand correctly verification is necessary only to withdraw money and to deposit more than $50,000. I doubt these 8000 people want to really deposit more than 50,000. Maybe these are mainly people who want to be able to withdraw fiat?

Afaik verification is required for all sepa deposits, no matter what the amount is.