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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1805452 times)
oakpacific
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March 31, 2013, 02:06:21 AM
 #16881

Does anyone else enjoy the eerie quiet?



It is Easter, so a little quiet is to be expected.

It's at best a enhanced weekend dip, in Asia we don't celebrate the Easter, so our attack should still continue.

question is: will it spill over to mtGox? I guess arbitrageurs will have a hard time moving fiat to mtGox and buffers are only that big.

I'd be surprised to see anything explosive to the upside before tuesday (no matter what chinese or any other market does).. actually wednesday more likely. But when the rocket fires that next stage... it'll shake the world who will watch in disbelief.


Suppose that some Chinese/Korean tycoons made up the idea to buy, Gox would be the only place with enough liquidity I guess.

My favourite scenario would be some bears who are ignorant about world cultural geography setting up walls, reckoning that there wouldn't be much buying during the Easter holiday, then gets gobbled up in a minute.

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molecular
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March 31, 2013, 02:07:23 AM
 #16882

Does anyone else enjoy the eerie quiet?



It is Easter, so a little quiet is to be expected.

It's at best a enhanced weekend dip, in Asia we don't celebrate the Easter, so our attack should still continue.

question is: will it spill over to mtGox? I guess arbitrageurs will have a hard time moving fiat to mtGox and buffers are only that big.

I'd be surprised to see anything explosive to the upside before tuesday (no matter what chinese or any other market does).. actually wednesday more likely. But when the rocket fires that next stage... it'll shake the world who will watch in disbelief.


Suppose that some Chinese/Korean tycoons made up the idea to buy, Gox would be the only place with enough liquidity I guess.

My favourite scenario would be some bears who are ignorant about world cultural geography setting up walls, reckoning that there wouldn't be much buying during the Easter holiday, then gets gobbled up in a minute.

hehe. I'd love to see that happen.

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mccorvic
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March 31, 2013, 02:08:06 AM
 #16883

My favourite scenario would be some bears who are ignorant about world cultural geography setting up walls, reckoning that there wouldn't be much buying during the Easter holiday, then gets gobbled up in a minute.

Well, bears aren't the smartest to begin with so I would expect them to under estimate the Asian Bull.

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March 31, 2013, 02:48:49 AM
 #16884

I'd be surprised to see anything explosive to the upside before tuesday (no matter what chinese or any other market does).. actually wednesday more likely. But when the rocket fires that next stage... it'll shake the world who will watch in disbelief.

It does seem to be putting in a floor again. Is $94 the new $47...

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March 31, 2013, 03:12:16 AM
 #16885

It does seem to be putting in a floor again. Is $94 the new $47...

47*2=94

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March 31, 2013, 03:32:52 AM
 #16886

Does anyone else enjoy the eerie quiet?



It is Easter, so a little quiet is to be expected.

It's at best a enhanced weekend dip, in Asia we don't celebrate the Easter, so our attack should still continue.

question is: will it spill over to mtGox? I guess arbitrageurs will have a hard time moving fiat to mtGox and buffers are only that big.

I'd be surprised to see anything explosive to the upside before tuesday (no matter what chinese or any other market does).. actually wednesday more likely. But when the rocket fires that next stage... it'll shake the world who will watch in disbelief.

Amen!  Grin

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March 31, 2013, 07:25:40 AM
 #16887

FYI the search rate has gone from huge over the last few months to bananas




Bro, do you even blockchain?
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March 31, 2013, 07:36:50 AM
 #16888

FYI the search rate has gone from huge over the last few months to bananas





Still not quite up to 2011 levels, but a slightly lower slope, so hopefully we can pass it up and keep trucking.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2010%2040m&cmpt=q

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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lebing
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March 31, 2013, 07:40:19 AM
 #16889

FYI the search rate has gone from huge over the last few months to bananas





Still not quite up to 2011 levels, but a slightly lower slope, so hopefully we can pass it up and keep trucking.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2010%2040m&cmpt=q

*Ahem*



Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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March 31, 2013, 07:43:03 AM
 #16890

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.
thoughtfan
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March 31, 2013, 08:20:02 AM
 #16891

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.
Although some are making the claim that the rise in price is due to panicking Cypriots buying Bitcoin I think the more credible (though not convincing to me) claim made is that the Cyprus situation is giving the other countries, particularly southern European weaker Euro nations the jitters with respect to what will happen in theirs.

But the search results don't appear to back this up either.  Maybe to the extent the Cyprus story is having an impact it's more likely that it is reaffirming the pre-existing beliefs of people world-over who see the banks and traditional currencies as being in a precarious position thereby increasing their confidence (and holding) in Bitcoin.  And given that a reasonably high proportion of such people know enough about and/or are involved with Bitcoin already then this wouldn't necessarily show up in the search statistics.  But then again my theory, by my having nothing of substance to support it, is pure conjecture too Smiley

And in the meantime the oversimplified version doesn't need to be true to sell papers/TV news slots providing it makes a good story!

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
solex
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March 31, 2013, 08:41:31 AM
 #16892

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

oakpacific
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March 31, 2013, 08:47:04 AM
 #16893

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map


Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
foo
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March 31, 2013, 08:52:00 AM
 #16894

"MtGox Verification Queue: Over 8300"

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bcg14/mtgox_verification_queue_over_8300/

I know this because Tyler knows this.
oakpacific
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March 31, 2013, 08:54:31 AM
 #16895

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map


Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.

Also interesting stat, in Tanzania there are 1608 Mac installations, and only 1 Windows installation, is it one single person responsible for all this?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
thoughtfan
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March 31, 2013, 09:11:12 AM
 #16896

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map


Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.
And this makes the case that nobody should take my hypotheses too seriously because it didn't even cross my mind to take this into consideration!

Regarding the additional downloads from Cyprus isn't it just as likely to have arisen out of the news claims of Cypriots putting their savings into Bitcoin rather than the other way round?

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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March 31, 2013, 09:25:13 AM
 #16897

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.

Go Finland! Rule the world with the might Mathematics has bestowed on you!
oakpacific
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March 31, 2013, 09:29:21 AM
 #16898

Interestingly, breaking down the search volume on Google for the last 12 months by region... Cyprus is nowhere to be found. I never really believed the notion, but it's not impossible. I'm wondering why people are making this assumption. Is there more data related to this correlation (Cyprus' interest in BTC vs BTC rising value)?



Edit: Filtering by past 7, 30, 90 days yields about the same results, and still no sign of Cyprus.

Go Finland! Rule the world with the might Mathematics has bestowed on you!

Spain triumphs you! But again, Finland doesn't need to prove itself. Smiley

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
oakpacific
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March 31, 2013, 09:36:13 AM
 #16899


This is the Spanish data, behold.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
solex
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March 31, 2013, 09:55:02 AM
 #16900

The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map


Oh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only.
And this makes the case that nobody should take my hypotheses too seriously because it didn't even cross my mind to take this into consideration!

Regarding the additional downloads from Cyprus isn't it just as likely to have arisen out of the news claims of Cypriots putting their savings into Bitcoin rather than the other way round?

Cyprus population (south) about 850,000, so indeed, they have the highest number of downloads of the bitcoin client per capita. That is significant!
Slovenia (pop 2m) has the same number of downloads, also high per capita. And this country is next up on the euro hangman's gallows.

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