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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1649674 times)
thefiniteidea
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March 28, 2013, 02:48:17 PM
 #16261

I know you guys hate when I do this but...



yay Grin

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rpietila
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March 28, 2013, 02:53:06 PM
 #16262

However, I don't think this bubble will reach $400. $300 is the maximum I can imagine at the moment. And the subsequent crash will take us to below $100,

I agree.

likely below $40.

LMAO. I am willing to write PUTs for $50 expiring Dec 2013. How many you want? What price?

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March 28, 2013, 02:53:42 PM
 #16263

I know you guys hate when I do this but...



yay Grin

I just woke up still, with a bit of a hangover... and.. the price is 95$ am I still dreaming?

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March 28, 2013, 02:54:46 PM
 #16264

Hah, just wait a few years to see who is really crazy around here!  Cheesy
I have been waiting a few years, and will continue to wait many many more years. Realize that it took over 2 years to get a few lowly internet freemium services to even consider BTC as a legitimate form of money. You're expecting what in a "few years" (and define "few")?

See I'm in it for the long haul, but I'm not about to lose my value over inane speculative bubbles. You just got here, and seem to already believe this is a get rich quick scheme. You're part of the speculative bubble. Just don't get caught at the top.

It seems you think Bitcoin has to succeed as a payment system in order to justify a high price, or at least think it is an important part of it. While Bitcoin as a payment system certainly has some merit, Bitcoin as a safe haven is far more relevant. There is so incredibly much money in the world invested in things like derivatives, only a small fraction of this has to go to Bitcoin in order for it to get to a price over $1000.

What we need right now is a legal framework which allows institutional investors to get their money into Bitcoin. Things like insured accounts, for instance. As Bitcoin is now rapidly getting in the limelight, this point may not be far away. And obviously I'm in Bitcoin for the long haul as well, I just believe things might happen very fast.

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March 28, 2013, 02:56:39 PM
 #16265

It seems you think Bitcoin has to succeed as a payment system in order to justify a high price, or at least think it is an important part of it. While Bitcoin as a payment system certainly has some merit, Bitcoin as a safe haven is far more relevant. There is so incredibly much money in the world invested in things like derivatives, only a small fraction of this has to go to Bitcoin in order for it to get to a price over $1000.

What we need right now is a legal framework which allows institutional investors to get their money into Bitcoin. Things like insured accounts, for instance. As Bitcoin is now rapidly getting in the limelight, this point may not be far away. And obviously I'm in Bitcoin for the long haul as well, I just believe things might happen very fast.
I stopped reading at safe haven, sorry.
WikileaksDude
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March 28, 2013, 03:01:24 PM
 #16266

It seems you think Bitcoin has to succeed as a payment system in order to justify a high price, or at least think it is an important part of it. While Bitcoin as a payment system certainly has some merit, Bitcoin as a safe haven is far more relevant. There is so incredibly much money in the world invested in things like derivatives, only a small fraction of this has to go to Bitcoin in order for it to get to a price over $1000.

What we need right now is a legal framework which allows institutional investors to get their money into Bitcoin. Things like insured accounts, for instance. As Bitcoin is now rapidly getting in the limelight, this point may not be far away. And obviously I'm in Bitcoin for the long haul as well, I just believe things might happen very fast.
I stopped reading at safe haven, sorry.

2x

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March 28, 2013, 03:04:20 PM
 #16267

It seems you think Bitcoin has to succeed as a payment system in order to justify a high price, or at least think it is an important part of it. While Bitcoin as a payment system certainly has some merit, Bitcoin as a safe haven is far more relevant. There is so incredibly much money in the world invested in things like derivatives, only a small fraction of this has to go to Bitcoin in order for it to get to a price over $1000.

What we need right now is a legal framework which allows institutional investors to get their money into Bitcoin. Things like insured accounts, for instance. As Bitcoin is now rapidly getting in the limelight, this point may not be far away. And obviously I'm in Bitcoin for the long haul as well, I just believe things might happen very fast.
I stopped reading at safe haven, sorry.

Well, I assume you think Bitcoin can't be a safe haven as it is still in it's technological infancy, but as it isn't correlated to any other asset in the world, it has the possibility of being a good hedge. And so far it has been.

On bubbles, they can grow quite a lot bigger before they crash. From Wikipedia, on the dot-com bubble:

Quote from: JACK WILLOUGHBY, March 20, 2000, Barrons
America's 371 publicly traded Internet companies have grown to the point that they are collectively valued at $1.3 trillion, which amounts to about 8% of the entire U.S. stock market.

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March 28, 2013, 03:08:11 PM
 #16268

Well, I assume you think Bitcoin can't be a safe haven as it is still in it's technological infancy, but as it isn't correlated to any other asset in the world, it has the possibility of being a good hedge. And so far it has been.

On bubbles, they can grow quite a lot bigger before they crash. From Wikipedia, on the dot-com bubble:
There is nothing safe about bitcoins, a quick glance at a 6mo chart of USD/BTC will show you that, and yes I would attribute that to infancy in general. And what good does the peak of a bubble mean to anyone that loses their shirt? What good does the peak mean if the higher the peak, the harder confidence in the currency gets hit after the correction (and depending on the degree of correction)? If your argument is that it's a bubble but it might pop higher, I can't disagree.
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March 28, 2013, 03:08:15 PM
 #16269

The only real, long term value a currency has is its utility as a means of exchange. If Bitcoin is successful then 20 years from now there will be no exchanges, and no speculation, because there won't be any other currencies to trade against. The purchasing power of a bitcoin will be driven by the needs of commerce instead of speculators, exactly as it should be.
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March 28, 2013, 03:09:20 PM
 #16270

The only real, long term value a currency has is its utility as a means of exchange. If Bitcoin is successful then 20 years from now there will be no exchanges, and no speculation, because there won't be any other currencies to trade against. The purchasing power of a bitcoin will be driven by the needs of commerce instead of speculators, exactly as it should be.
Bingo. Couldn't have said it better.
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March 28, 2013, 03:11:21 PM
 #16271

The only arguments I see are this:

Bull: Bitcoin has vast potential.  It is beginning to reach that potential, thus price increase.  Potential as store of value. Potential as money transmitter. Potential as international currency.  Potential for money laundering.  Also, the increase in publicity is introducing bitcoin's uses to a whole new global audience.  Not just it's current trade price, but actual value and uses.

Bear: Bubble because.

I have yet to see anything out side of this.

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deeplink
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March 28, 2013, 03:15:49 PM
 #16272

The only real, long term value a currency has is its utility as a means of exchange. If Bitcoin is successful then 20 years from now there will be no exchanges, and no speculation, because there won't be any other currencies to trade against. The purchasing power of a bitcoin will be driven by the needs of commerce instead of speculators, exactly as it should be.

If it has purchasing power, people will use it to store wealth. Like gold.
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March 28, 2013, 03:17:50 PM
 #16273

Well, I assume you think Bitcoin can't be a safe haven as it is still in it's technological infancy, but as it isn't correlated to any other asset in the world, it has the possibility of being a good hedge. And so far it has been.

On bubbles, they can grow quite a lot bigger before they crash. From Wikipedia, on the dot-com bubble:
There is nothing safe about bitcoins, a quick glance at a 6mo chart of USD/BTC will show you that, and yes I would attribute that to infancy in general. And what good does the peak of a bubble mean to anyone that loses their shirt? What good does the peak mean if the higher the peak, the harder confidence in the currency gets hit after the correction (and depending on the degree of correction)? If your argument is that it's a bubble but it might pop higher, I can't disagree.

The volatility is irrelevant and actually what we have to expect from anything which has to start at zero. And my argument is that it indeed will pop higher, only a lot higher with not one single large pop, but many small ones (as we have seen the last few months). And it will recover even then.

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March 28, 2013, 03:19:17 PM
 #16274

The only arguments I see are this:

Bull: Bitcoin has vast potential.  It is beginning to reach that potential, thus price increase.  Potential as store of value. Potential as money transmitter. Potential as international currency.  Potential for money laundering.  Also, the increase in publicity is introducing bitcoin's uses to a whole new global audience.  Not just it's current trade price, but actual value and uses.

Bear: Bubble because.

I have yet to see anything out side of this.

I could play it the same way.

Bull: Bitcoin is valuable because bitcoin is valuable (or will be at some arbitrary point in time since clairvoyant)

Bear: Actually, I can only use it for x, y, and z, and I've seen only x% in measured user growth and the valuation has far outpaced it, so bubble.

If it has purchasing power, people will use it to store wealth. Like gold.
This is true, but right now it doesn't, and won't for the foreseeable future. Unless you know something I don't?
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March 28, 2013, 03:21:05 PM
 #16275

Well, I assume you think Bitcoin can't be a safe haven as it is still in it's technological infancy, but as it isn't correlated to any other asset in the world, it has the possibility of being a good hedge. And so far it has been.

On bubbles, they can grow quite a lot bigger before they crash. From Wikipedia, on the dot-com bubble:
There is nothing safe about bitcoins, a quick glance at a 6mo chart of USD/BTC will show you that, and yes I would attribute that to infancy in general. And what good does the peak of a bubble mean to anyone that loses their shirt? What good does the peak mean if the higher the peak, the harder confidence in the currency gets hit after the correction (and depending on the degree of correction)? If your argument is that it's a bubble but it might pop higher, I can't disagree.

The volatility is irrelevant and actually what we have to expect from anything which has to start at zero. And my argument is that it indeed will pop higher, only a lot higher with not one single large pop, but many small ones (as we have seen the last few months). And it will recover even then.

The volatility was way higher when the price was low.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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March 28, 2013, 03:23:23 PM
 #16276

I could play it the same way.

Yea, but you did a terrible job at it :/

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March 28, 2013, 03:24:02 PM
 #16277

Yea, but you did a terrible job at it :/
Because it's not in line with your opinion. :\
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March 28, 2013, 03:24:06 PM
 #16278

Bear: Actually, I can only use it for x, y, and z, and I've seen only x% in measured user growth and the valuation has far outpaced it, so bubble.

I can use Bitcoin to store wealth, without having the risk that someday the government or a bank will take it away. There is a risk that either my wallet gets stolen, the technology behind it will be cracked or using it might become extremely cumbersome due to government actions, but with that priced in, it is still a good store of wealth. I don't care at all that people aren't using it to buy stuff online, as long as they use it to store wealth.

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March 28, 2013, 03:26:37 PM
 #16279

If it has purchasing power, people will use it to store wealth. Like gold.
This is true, but right now it doesn't, and won't for the foreseeable future. Unless you know something I don't?

Actually there is quite a lot you can already buy with bitcoins at the moment.

BitcoinStore, Mega, Reddit, Wordpress, Amazon fulfillment integration, Gold, Silver, etc.

And we are only just getting started.
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March 28, 2013, 03:28:24 PM
 #16280

Actually there is quite a lot you can already buy with bitcoins at the moment.

BitcoinStore, Mega, Reddit, Wordpress, Amazon fulfillment integration, Gold, Silver, etc.

And we are only just getting started.

Heh, it's funny because you think that's a lot. If that's a lot, how do you characterize every other commodity and currency?
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