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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1648502 times)
klee
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March 28, 2013, 10:41:54 AM
 #16221

LMAO

BTC: 1K9atu5zgz7izCMAynk5adBJ8Qn2YgS6nT
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ManBearPig
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March 28, 2013, 10:57:37 AM
 #16222

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash

A dip perhaps - not a crash Smiley

Yes it does look thin though. Amazed it hasn't happened already but we know it will simply be a buying opp for those not already all-in  Grin

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March 28, 2013, 11:24:56 AM
 #16223

Excellent article: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-28/bitcoin-may-be-the-global-economys-last-safe-haven

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March 28, 2013, 11:26:03 AM
 #16224

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.
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March 28, 2013, 11:27:12 AM
 #16225


Great piece! Is the financial press starting to take BTC seriously?

Probably not (yet) Tongue

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Ente
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March 28, 2013, 11:57:57 AM
 #16226

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.

All right, I bite:

- What crash are you expecting? Down to what rate?
- In what timeframe are you expecting it to happen?
- Under what circumstances will you convert to bull-side? Like, no crash until x BTC or day y?

You fail to deliver any reasoning in the last months. You fail at your vague predictions. You fail at answering others here.
I, personally, will judge your bear/troll ratio on your answers on this. Although I don't expect you to care a lot, obviously ;-)

Ente
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March 28, 2013, 12:08:44 PM
 #16227

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

This is really the pattern we've seen for a couple weeks.  The bids within the $10 or so dollars of the current price look real thin, but they are very strong as bears attempt to dump.

Total bids remain the same at about 9.5mil.

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March 28, 2013, 12:16:00 PM
 #16228

Guy named sander cleared out the bids at btc24 usd apparently by accident, selling 50 BTC for prices between .1 and 1 dollar. Poor guy. Cheapest coins today !

http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=bitcoin24

Of course he claims it wasn't his fault...

18FoHvM5nfkTyiEC9ScxieMNedh7wwgrG2
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March 28, 2013, 12:19:38 PM
 #16229

Guy named sander cleared out the bids at btc24 usd apparently by accident, selling 50 BTC for prices between .1 and 1 dollar. Poor guy. Cheapest coins today !

http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=bitcoin24

Of course he claims it wasn't his fault...

10 coins at $0.16ea!!
20 coins at $0.25ea!!

someone got extremely lucky...
samson
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March 28, 2013, 12:19:52 PM
 #16230

Guy named sander cleared out the bids at btc24 usd apparently by accident, selling 50 BTC for prices between .1 and 1 dollar. Poor guy. Cheapest coins today !

http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=bitcoin24

Of course he claims it wasn't his fault...

How can that even happen ? Weren't there any bids on the order book higher then those real low ones ?
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March 28, 2013, 12:26:09 PM
 #16231

Other users claim their accounts got hacked, site owner shows up in chat at bitcoin24.

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oakpacific
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March 28, 2013, 12:26:58 PM
 #16232

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.

All right, I bite:

- What crash are you expecting? Down to what rate?
- In what timeframe are you expecting it to happen?
- Under what circumstances will you convert to bull-side? Like, no crash until x BTC or day y?

You fail to deliver any reasoning in the last months. You fail at your vague predictions. You fail at answering others here.
I, personally, will judge your bear/troll ratio on your answers on this. Although I don't expect you to care a lot, obviously ;-)

Ente

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March 28, 2013, 12:39:49 PM
 #16233

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely (1) in MtGox, the bids are thin (2) all the way down to $1.  When (3) the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time (4).  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses (5).  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.

Proudhon I am really interested in any opposing opinions. Would you care to explain in more detail what you mean with the above? For example:

1) "likely" sure but it also goes the other way. There is also likely more $$ on MtGox than the orderbook shows.
2) define "thin". Down to $1 has over $8M in bids. That doesn't look "thin" to me.
3) "when" is vague, please define in which period you think this is going to happen.
4) "exactly like last time" is not possible because we are now at 3x the top of 2011 and have been staying here much longer with many short stops in between. Also the fundamentals have become overwelmingly better in the meantime. Please explain what you mean.
5) Why not? It survived the first collapse pretty well and one could argue bitcoin came out even stronger.
mccorvic
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March 28, 2013, 12:52:58 PM
 #16234

The number 1 reason that BTC will increase in value:

Quote from: Businessweek
...with a market cap of $864 million, all of it is worth less than what Facebook (FB) paid for Instagram

Bitcoin is worth far, far more than some sh*tty program that allows hipsters to take pictures of food and was programed in about 15 seconds.

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surya
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March 28, 2013, 12:54:05 PM
 #16235

I reduced the bitcoin percentage of my savings from 86% to 5% today, after making the equivalent of 2 years of my usual salary in 1 months thanks to bitcoin.
Fear, greed and luck...seeing it on the first page of newspapers worldwide, it seems like a good point to sell as long as the buyers storm the exchanges.

I don't want it to disappear again, like it happened trading stocks before.

I still left 1 month salary in it, waiting for 4 digits bitcoin, planning to keep in for the next few years.

Now waiting for verification @ mtgox to get the fiat money out.  I am number 5000, as I am living in Tokyo just 10 min walk from MTGOX office in Shibuya,
do you think I could make a verification on the spot there?
rpietila
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March 28, 2013, 12:55:13 PM
 #16236

I reduced the bitcoin percentage of my savings from 86% to 5% today, after making the equivalent of 2 years of my usual salary in 1 months thanks to bitcoin.
Fear, greed and luck...seeing it on the first page of newspapers worldwide, it seems like a good point to sell as long as the buyers storm the exchanges.

I don't want it to disappear again, like it happened trading stocks before.

I still left 1 month salary in it, waiting for 4 digits bitcoin, planning to keep in for the next few years.

Now waiting for verification @ mtgox to get the fiat money out.  I am number 5000, as I am living in Tokyo just 10 min walk from MTGOX office in Shibuya,
do you think I could make a verification on the spot there?

 Smiley Congratulations!  Smiley

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March 28, 2013, 12:56:09 PM
 #16237

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.
I will add my own response to this, not in the hope of changing Proudhon's mind but in case there are newbies considering giving his opinion some credibility due to his post-count.

Proudhon, Thinking about the owners of these enormous numbers of bitcoins you're implying are 'likely [to be] in MtGox' put yourself in the shoes of serious reasoning bears who believe Bitcoin will fail and whose intention is to get out with maximum profit.  Why, given the evidence for increasing interest, numbers and volume, do you think they would prefer to crash the market losing loads through slippage rather than sell as much as they can at current price then see what happens then  rinse & repeat?

Thing is, for your scenario to work it would need a huge proportion of the volume of Bitcoin holders either to be opportunists who see no future for the currency but are taking advantage of the 'fad' or naive get-rich-quick folk who would buckle and sell at the first signs of a reversal.  I don't believe this to be the case in terms of the latter because we keep having nice dips (such as now) to lose the weak hands as we go along.  As for the former I'm not getting the sense of that.  Do you have some evidence that it is?

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
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March 28, 2013, 01:03:11 PM
 #16238

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.
I will add my own response to this, not in the hope of changing Proudhon's mind but in case there are newbies considering giving his opinion some credibility due to his post-count.

Proudhon, Thinking about the owners of these enormous numbers of bitcoins you're implying are 'likely [to be] in MtGox' put yourself in the shoes of serious reasoning bears who believe Bitcoin will fail and whose intention is to get out with maximum profit.  Why, given the evidence for increasing interest, numbers and volume, do you think they would prefer to crash the market losing loads through slippage rather than sell as much as they can at current price then see what happens then  rinse & repeat?

Thing is, for your scenario to work it would need a huge proportion of the volume of Bitcoin holders either to be opportunists who see no future for the currency but are taking advantage of the 'fad' or naive get-rich-quick folk who would buckle and sell at the first signs of a reversal.  I don't believe this to be the case in terms of the latter because we keep having nice dips (such as now) to lose the weak hands as we go along.  As for the former I'm not getting the sense of that.  Do you have some evidence that it is?

Proudhon is a joke, nobody would write 3000 bearish posts if he wasn't involved. If he was involved in shorting, he would have been out many times and lost all his money. So he is involved in being long. When did he begin in the forum? Yes, April 2011. I assume his average entry point is $1, which means that in the minimum, we are looking into the eye of a llama who owns 1000s of bitcoins. There is no upper limit but I would believe he owns less than BTC25,000 by statistical analysis.

So let's continue playing the game with him, and not analyze too much  Wink

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March 28, 2013, 01:04:25 PM
 #16239

I'm fairly new here and haven't fed the troll so I shan't just yet :p

However: I believe there will be NO 'crash' to zero. I myself would buy up as much as I could lay my hands on long before that, I'm sure there are tens of thousands of others who would do the same.

Also, looking at the wall (as much as this thread is about just that) is becoming less reliable. I'm simply all-in with no stop-loss. I don't need the money I have invested in BTC right now and am happy to let it bounce from whatever bottom it may find itself at back to whatever the market value is.

You simply cannot compare Bitcoin now with what it was in previous years, it has become something else. The highs and lows we've seen recently are a big indicator of how people are playing this market now. Ignore the actual numbers and see the general psychology of the market behind them.

The linear projection (Jan and Feb of this year) ignoring the exponential growth since the start of March suggests (to me at least) a target of around $300-$400 in 2 years time. This is the current underlying trend on top of which the exponential growth is happening, this is the only trendline I'm looking in detail at the moment.

I will of course take anything above this as a bonus.

Take all of this with a pinch of salt of course, I don't profess to be anything other than an interested partaker in the saga of the Bitcoin!

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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March 28, 2013, 01:10:41 PM
 #16240


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