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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1648439 times)
Zomdifros
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March 29, 2013, 09:11:04 AM
 #16681

And now for some more bullish news.

You've all probably noticed the forum yesterday broke it's 2011 records of most active users online:
Quote
Most Online Ever: 4824 (March 28, 2013, 10:20:50 PM)

Also, it's doing quite well on Twitter:
http://analytics.topsy.com/?q=bitcoin

But the real slammer is that we finally broke through the Google Trends record of June 2011:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2011%2027m&cmpt=q

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March 29, 2013, 09:38:51 AM
 #16682

MagicalTux gave some info on engine lag and changes he's planning on irc last night:

The coming change at mtGox and its implications

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Zomdifros
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March 29, 2013, 10:21:50 AM
 #16683

MagicalTux gave some info on engine lag and changes he's planning on irc last night:

The coming change at mtGox and its implications


Thanks for sharing this btw.

Also, I have absolutely no information besides a lot of wishful thinking on my behalf, but the chart looks like it's going to explode any time now.

Zomdifros
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March 29, 2013, 10:31:40 AM
 #16684

MagicalTux gave some info on engine lag and changes he's planning on irc last night:

The coming change at mtGox and its implications


Thanks for sharing this btw.

Also, I have absolutely no information besides a lot of wishful thinking on my behalf, but the chart looks like it's going to explode any time now.

I was thinking this too, I also think once we break 100 it might be 150 before we slow down. I just kinda think once we break 100 it will just pop.

Agreed, that is not unlikely. As they said on QZ, Bitcoin is experiencing a demand crisis. As the price continues to climb upwards, more people are willing to invest more money in it. It's like a turbo on an engine, it will continue to accelerate as long as there is enough fuel in the tank.

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March 29, 2013, 10:50:36 AM
 #16685

Bitcoin is getting a lot of attention at the moment but these things don't last forever.

Do you think Bitcoin will be such a hot topic in 1 month? How about 2 months? I don't think it will and the price will reflect this.

I agree with Gavins prediction he made all the way back in July 2010.

Bitcoin will get mentioned someplace with lots of readers, a bunch of those readers will like the idea and try to buy Bitcoins, their price will rise which will draw even more people to "invest", which will drive the price up even more... until people decide that the price isn't going to rise any more and everybody rushes to sell before the price drops.  I predict there will be between one and five Bitcoin bubbles (price will double or more and then crash back down below the starting price) in the next four years .

He posted that before even the 2011 bubble.

I would call this bubble #2, so there are between 0 and 3 more to go Grin

As for numbers; I think this bubble has already reached it's peak and the next will reach $250, after that $500, etc. At least doubling, maybe even tripling each time.
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March 29, 2013, 11:12:26 AM
 #16686

A lot of the fresh money coming in is doing so because it's expecting the price to rise. If we will see a severe weekend dip during the next days, reflected in a loss of a few % over the course of several days, maybe several days with a loss over 24h, this could initiate a psychological trend reversal. I wouldn't expect a lot of the greedy risk-taking money to still be attracted to bitcoins then in the short term future. We've seen dips corrected quickly before, all very bullish, this time a psychological barrier of 100$ is added to the equation. As I don't have time to dedicate to watching curves the next few days I decided to stay out for now. I'm a tad sad about it since i expect there's going to be a lot of money made in daytrading the coming days, but sometimes family comes first.

It was a nice ride so far and I hope the development will continue to exceed your expectations.

18FoHvM5nfkTyiEC9ScxieMNedh7wwgrG2
Zomdifros
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March 29, 2013, 11:27:02 AM
 #16687

Bitcoin is getting a lot of attention at the moment but these things don't last forever.

Do you think Bitcoin will be such a hot topic in 1 month? How about 2 months? I don't think it will and the price will reflect this.

I agree with Gavins prediction he made all the way back in July 2010.

Bitcoin will get mentioned someplace with lots of readers, a bunch of those readers will like the idea and try to buy Bitcoins, their price will rise which will draw even more people to "invest", which will drive the price up even more... until people decide that the price isn't going to rise any more and everybody rushes to sell before the price drops.  I predict there will be between one and five Bitcoin bubbles (price will double or more and then crash back down below the starting price) in the next four years .

He posted that before even the 2011 bubble.

I would call this bubble #2, so there are between 0 and 3 more to go Grin

As for numbers; I think this bubble has already reached it's peak and the next will reach $250, after that $500, etc. At least doubling, maybe even tripling each time.

Wow, truly great post by Gavin.

I think it all depends on the infrastructure and the institutional investors. There could be many of them who decide it's safe enough to use as a hedge against pretty much anything else. The fact that Bitcoin isn't correlated to traditional assets gives it value in itself.
 
Also, the real driver might be it's utility as a private, pseudonymous wealth transfer system. The drug cartels, weapon dealers, Russian black market and gamblers still have to join the party and for them Bitcoin provides lots of advantages.

And I think there may be another bubble which will deflate once the media attention is over, but it won't be as violent as 2011 because we all have the collective knowledge that Bitcoin is able to survive this.

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March 29, 2013, 12:01:56 PM
 #16688

Bitcoin is getting a lot of attention at the moment but these things don't last forever.

Do you think Bitcoin will be such a hot topic in 1 month? How about 2 months? I don't think it will and the price will reflect this.

I agree with Gavins prediction he made all the way back in July 2010.

Bitcoin will get mentioned someplace with lots of readers, a bunch of those readers will like the idea and try to buy Bitcoins, their price will rise which will draw even more people to "invest", which will drive the price up even more... until people decide that the price isn't going to rise any more and everybody rushes to sell before the price drops.  I predict there will be between one and five Bitcoin bubbles (price will double or more and then crash back down below the starting price) in the next four years .

He posted that before even the 2011 bubble.

I would call this bubble #2, so there are between 0 and 3 more to go Grin

As for numbers; I think this bubble has already reached it's peak and the next will reach $250, after that $500, etc. At least doubling, maybe even tripling each time.

This wasn't a bubble, and neither was 2011. They were dips, and in hindsight, not even that big.
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March 29, 2013, 12:24:55 PM
 #16689

A bubble pops. It doesn't reform almost immediately.

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
Zomdifros
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March 29, 2013, 12:33:11 PM
 #16690

Wow, look at the awesomeness of this post:

First: it looks like we're in the middle of our first Bitcoin Bubble.  Price today went from about 0.8 US cents to 1.4 US cents on the Bitcoin Market.  Maybe the price won't crash back down... will be interesting to see what happens.

Second, RE: lending:  I think it's going to be really hard to establish enough trust to create a lending bitcoin bank.  I base that on my experiences dabbling as a Prosper.com lender; when hard times hit, repaying your Bitcoin debts will be WAAAAY down on the priority list.

Instead, I think we'll see Ponzi schemes masquerading as lending banks.  Buyer beware!


Not only did Gavin accurately predict the whole Pirate scam, just look at the price. Going from 0.8 cents to 1.4 cents for a bitcoin, fuck.

yokosan
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March 29, 2013, 12:40:30 PM
 #16691

Wow, look at the awesomeness of this post:

First: it looks like we're in the middle of our first Bitcoin Bubble.  Price today went from about 0.8 US cents to 1.4 US cents on the Bitcoin Market.  Maybe the price won't crash back down... will be interesting to see what happens.

Second, RE: lending:  I think it's going to be really hard to establish enough trust to create a lending bitcoin bank.  I base that on my experiences dabbling as a Prosper.com lender; when hard times hit, repaying your Bitcoin debts will be WAAAAY down on the priority list.

Instead, I think we'll see Ponzi schemes masquerading as lending banks.  Buyer beware!


Not only did Gavin accurately predict the whole Pirate scam, just look at the price. Going from 0.8 cents to 1.4 cents for a bitcoin, fuck.

Think I'm going to dig through his posts and try to find some predictions that haven't happened yet Cheesy
Nemesis
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March 29, 2013, 01:17:35 PM
 #16692

I've been thinking about posting another confession about a new manipulation trick i have developed.

I feel kinda bad making moneys off newbie Sad

Its mainly related to Mt.Gox trading engine.

So..... should i?
yokosan
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March 29, 2013, 01:19:09 PM
 #16693

More gold from Gavin:

I think a big publicity splash should wait until Bitcoin 1.0.  Bitcoin still has way too many rough edges for ordinary folk to use (watch them run away screaming as you try to explain that it is NORMAL for it to take half an hour to download the block chain the first time you start Bitcoin....).

We are still not at version 1.0 Cheesy

When we do reach the holy version 1.0 I wonder how much media attention that might attract?

Bitcoin-related sites that have self-signed or CACert certificates (like mybitcoin.com) look unprofessional and un-trustworthy to clueless non-techies.

I know, I know, a Verisign-certified certificate isn't really any guarantee of security, but that doesn't matter-- if you want ordinary users to start trusting your website, get a certificate that doesn't popup any scary-looking security warnings.


He said MyBItcoin looks un-trustworthy. Herp derp!

Maybe a bitcoin payment request MIME type would work better; you click on a link and the web server returns a little file of type "application/bitcoin-payment-request".  Like this. Or the links on this page.

This still hasn't happened yet.

I'm starting to think that bitcoin as a store-of-value might end up being more attractive than bitcoin as a medium-of-exchange.

...

I agree-- we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency.  I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles..

I tend not to worry about things that are out of my control; I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators, and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins).


Still true.

When Bitcoins are worth more than about ten dollars (or euros) each, I think it'll be time to allow sub-bit-penny payments.  And I think the "smallest free transaction" limit (and other internal minimums) should move in lock-step with that change.

When 1 Bitcoin is worth somewhere around $100 (in 2010 dollars), I think it'll be time for the client to switch to millicoins (e.g. .001 BTC), so if I'm buying a paperback book it costs 50 milliBTC  instead of  .05 BTC.

Cheesy


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March 29, 2013, 01:30:36 PM
 #16694

I've been thinking about posting another confession about a new manipulation trick i have developed.

I feel kinda bad making moneys off newbie Sad

Its mainly related to Mt.Gox trading engine.

So..... should i?


Yes.. Cheesy
Zomdifros
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March 29, 2013, 01:33:07 PM
 #16695

I've been thinking about posting another confession about a new manipulation trick i have developed.

I feel kinda bad making moneys off newbie Sad

Its mainly related to Mt.Gox trading engine.

So..... should i?


Yes, please do so. And it would be nice to provide at least some evidence.

Edit: hmm, the market is not moving in my preferred direction.

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March 29, 2013, 01:34:33 PM
 #16696

Here we go again !

I'm not placing an order on the way down this time as who knows where it will end up.
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March 29, 2013, 01:34:48 PM
 #16697

Annnnd it's dropping in price rapidly again
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March 29, 2013, 01:35:01 PM
 #16698

... aaaaaand the fun starts again....



Roll up, roll up ladies and gentlemen, how far will she fall this time? Smiley


... and how high will the lag get? Wink

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
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March 29, 2013, 01:36:59 PM
 #16699

please everyone make usd wall now!
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March 29, 2013, 01:39:07 PM
 #16700

Of course we're going down.  Look at the tasty depth on the bid side.  Tons of USD available to buy -- ~$1.5m above $80.
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