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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1805446 times)
Zomdifros
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March 31, 2013, 10:12:28 PM
 #16941


Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?


Yes


This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded.

In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak.

Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century.

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solex
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March 31, 2013, 10:54:02 PM
 #16942


Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?


Yes


This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded.

In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak.

Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century.

Guys. This graphic best describes the situation. TA is great for short-term trading, FA is needed for long-term analysis. The future of Bitcoin 2 years out must be based upon projection of fundamentals (if you can even guess them all).


phatsphere
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March 31, 2013, 11:29:03 PM
 #16943

What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
wachtwoord
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March 31, 2013, 11:35:35 PM
 #16944


Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?


Yes


This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded.

In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak.

Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century.

Guys. This is graph best describes the situation. TA is great for short-term trading, FA is needed for long-term analysis. The future of Bitcoin 2 years out must be based upon projection of fundamentals (if you can even guess them all).



The fact that I never hold something for a short period might explain my aversion to TA? Wink
Beta-coiner1
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March 31, 2013, 11:38:34 PM
 #16945

What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
Lol,I was thinking the same.There have been a lot of purchases and highs on there or Bitfloor.I suspect 100 will be hit tomorrow through Bitstamp.

Missionary
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March 31, 2013, 11:55:23 PM
 #16946

What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
Lol,I was thinking the same.There have been a lot of purchases and highs on there or Bitfloor.I suspect 100 will be hit tomorrow through Bitstamp.

It's gonna be fun to see what happens when the banks open on monday and tuesday. I guess most european banks have a holiday on monday, right?

I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z
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samson
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March 31, 2013, 11:59:55 PM
 #16947

What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
Lol,I was thinking the same.There have been a lot of purchases and highs on there or Bitfloor.I suspect 100 will be hit tomorrow through Bitstamp.

It's gonna be fun to see what happens when the banks open on monday and tuesday. I guess most european banks have a holiday on monday, right?

They do have a holiday on Monday in Europe but I believe the Japanese banks are open tomorrow (today in Japan) so there will be new money arriving into MtGox very soon assuming it was sent Thursday / Friday.
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April 01, 2013, 12:10:09 AM
 #16948

They do have a holiday on Monday in Europe but I believe the Japanese banks are open tomorrow (today in Japan) so there will be new money arriving into MtGox very soon assuming it was sent Thursday / Friday.

On that topic: The banking hours in Japan should already have begun.

I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z
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SlaveInDebt
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April 01, 2013, 12:34:27 AM
 #16949


"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
zkay
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April 01, 2013, 12:51:16 AM
 #16950



Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.
wachtwoord
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April 01, 2013, 12:52:39 AM
 #16951



Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.

Would you care?
zkay
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April 01, 2013, 12:55:50 AM
 #16952



Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.

Would you care?

Yes, infact I'd be alarmed, seeing as I'm hoping for it to get to a certain valuation before I can cash out and buy a few big ticket items (for me, at least).
bitarrow
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April 01, 2013, 01:12:16 AM
 #16953



Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.
$40 would be an awesome day! buy buy buy
Zomdifros
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April 01, 2013, 01:29:48 AM
 #16954



Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.
$40 would be an awesome day! buy buy buy

What if Bitcoin itself is some elaborate april fool staged by an anonymous nerd back in 2009?

Only he happened to be a very talented developer and his creation got a life of it's own?

bitarrow
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April 01, 2013, 01:37:30 AM
 #16955



Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.
$40 would be an awesome day! buy buy buy

What if Bitcoin itself is some elaborate april fool staged by an anonymous nerd back in 2009?

Only he happened to be a very talented developer and his creation got a life of it's own?
Then I would say all developers/programmers that have reviewed the client and protocol code are either idiots or involved with the hoax. Im not worried Smiley
However I wonder if Satoshi has thousands of BTC locked in multiple brain wallets Smiley And cashed it all in On April 1st. This would be more plausible
oakpacific
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April 01, 2013, 01:54:02 AM
 #16956


Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?


Yes


This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded.

In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak.

Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century.

Guys. This graphic best describes the situation. TA is great for short-term trading, FA is needed for long-term analysis. The future of Bitcoin 2 years out must be based upon projection of fundamentals (if you can even guess them all).



I agree with what user "David M" once said, when the price makes a new high, every technical analysis/trend becomes invalidated, you have to start all over again.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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April 01, 2013, 02:49:39 AM
 #16957

More wall pics?  Sure.

The bull run is starting early this week Wink

Also, listentobitcoin is pretty neat.  Didn't see that huge buy ping on it though.




Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
ehoffman
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April 01, 2013, 02:53:19 AM
 #16958

Yup, I just saw the 2K wall-eater buy transaction Smiley

Like my comments?  Cheer me up at 137s1qFV63M6SXWhKkwjaZKEeZX23pq1hw
Don't like my comments, donate to the BCRT (better comment research team) here at 1A1PbZypjEe7yanj69ApVS1FhK8UMW7Wdc Smiley
The-Real-Link
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April 01, 2013, 02:58:53 AM
 #16959

Aww looks like the command post was deleted.

Anyway, Buy ALL the Bitcoins!

Or wait, we just need some deals going down and they can you know, base the game on a transaction on a true story.  Metal Gear Solid VI: Wall-Eater.

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
ineededausername
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bitcoin hundred-aire


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April 01, 2013, 03:16:53 AM
 #16960

some idiotic bear keeps selling right after huge buys... I don't get it at all

(BFL)^2 < 0
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