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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1811501 times)
adamstgBit (OP)
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April 12, 2013, 06:38:48 PM
 #22181

Considering the substantial parallels with the June 2011 bubble, I would say that any support at these levels, i.e. 76, is not going to hold. The primary reason is identical with the last time - the onetime flood of new bitcoin buyers is going to dry up. There is only bad media about bitcoin, e.g. no new all time highs to report - now just the crash and how Mt.Gox messed up, same as last time.



you base your trades on past price movement

while I obverse, absorb and act.

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jasonpitts
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April 12, 2013, 06:41:23 PM
 #22182

I am no expert, but even if the prices hang in this range for awhile, this is still significant growth for Bitcoin. It sucks for those of us that bought way above this price point, but we will still get back there one day. And who knows the next rally could be next week.
Piper67
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April 12, 2013, 06:45:34 PM
 #22183

Considering the substantial parallels with the June 2011 bubble, I would say that any support at these levels, i.e. 76, is not going to hold. The primary reason is identical with the last time - the onetime flood of new bitcoin buyers is going to dry up. There is only bad media about bitcoin, e.g. no new all time highs to report - now just the crash and how Mt.Gox messed up, same as last time.



I doubt you were around for 2011. If you were, you're clearly trolling, in case you weren't, here are a few differences between then and now:

1) Money's still pouring in. MtGox ask sum up past 11 mil and rising as of a few minutes ago.

2) In 2011, the hack against MtGox was successful in executive all sells, all the way down to a few cents. Trading stopped, not for 12 hours, but for a couple weeks.

3) The difference in media coverage between then and now is simply astounding, both in quantity and tenor.

4) The 2011 hack came close together with two other major disruptions to Bitcoin, the theft of a large sum of BTC from allinvain, and the debacle with mybitcoin.com.

5) The ancillary network of business, companies and VC that surrounds Bitcoin today wasn't even in its gestation period back then.

Will the price drop this weekend? Quite possibly so, though it's also possible it will hold, like it did last weekend.

If MtGox gets its act together (an enormous IF, btw), this will be a speedbump, nothing more. If MtGox doesn't get its act together, it will require a shift in mindset from Gox to alternate exchanges and off exchange systems like localbitcoins.com. Not a speedbump, more like a moat that has to be crossed after we've built the bridge.

GreekGeek
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April 12, 2013, 06:49:51 PM
 #22184

offtopic

don't you think the main problem of bitcoin will be DDoSs

if not on an exchange probably on the blockchain it self

today it took 4 hours (fees payed) for one transaction to be confirmed

retirement fund : 1NBM5DM317RfWsHXKUfPUDtba2scavpPoB
Kazu
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April 12, 2013, 06:50:00 PM
 #22185

I have a new and radical idea, how about NOBODY SELL WHEN THE PRICES ARE LOW and also NOBODY BUY WHEN THE SENTIMENT IS SO BAD.

Just set what you currently have aside as some Bitcoin savings, and buy when you have an actual use for bitcoins or wish to add some more to your long term savings, rather than buy to try and sell a couple of minutes later.

The latter achieves the following:
-Pays Gox or exchangers, essentially twice, when they clearly do not deserve it. You are essentially building a Bitcoin Barclays.
-Destabalizes the currency making it less viable for merchants.
-Take a huge risk for your own money.
-Not a huge chance of you making any significant amount of money

Just don't do it. Stay calm.

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mike938
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April 12, 2013, 06:50:37 PM
 #22186

i can sell ltc at btc-e for btc and transfer to gox and make an additional percentage when i end up with usd.

making money is not personal. gox can do whatever they want as long as it assists me in making a tad more.

all you bulls blaming gox for the crash and hating on them.. giggle


.... Uh, what? Lol, dude. The issue is not bulls blaming gox for whatever, it is silly people using a service that is incredibly inferior.
There are a dozen other exchanges where you could transfer your BTC to and sell it for USD and make the same profit. Some exchanges even have a higher USD/BTC rate than GoX much of the time. Yet, you choose the one that at any given moment could have 427 seconds of lag time or be completely unreachable due to "victim of our own success."

I'm not laughing at people trying to make money, I'm laughing at people picking the poorest-performing broker to do so. Lrn2freemarket.

So if fcmatt were picking a convalescent home to put his mum in, he would pick the one that costs more, has the electricity shut off randomly, and beats its patients, rather than the one that has excellent service, nice staff, no rolling blackouts, and no beatings? And he would state a completely unrelated, incorrect reason as to why other people don't put their mums in the abusive home with the outages?

Matt don't let your mum know you have such bad skillz at choosing institutions with which to do business based on their performance...

one word: dwolla

that alone makes gox the most interesting exchange for me. i bet it does for many many others too.

CampBX does dwolla as well?
Krabby
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April 12, 2013, 06:55:06 PM
 #22187

I'm just wondering what will happen around 1-3UTC.
Anyone have any idea what happened with this in the end?:




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fcmatt
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April 12, 2013, 06:56:25 PM
 #22188

i can sell ltc at btc-e for btc and transfer to gox and make an additional percentage when i end up with usd.

making money is not personal. gox can do whatever they want as long as it assists me in making a tad more.

all you bulls blaming gox for the crash and hating on them.. giggle


.... Uh, what? Lol, dude. The issue is not bulls blaming gox for whatever, it is silly people using a service that is incredibly inferior.
There are a dozen other exchanges where you could transfer your BTC to and sell it for USD and make the same profit. Some exchanges even have a higher USD/BTC rate than GoX much of the time. Yet, you choose the one that at any given moment could have 427 seconds of lag time or be completely unreachable due to "victim of our own success."

I'm not laughing at people trying to make money, I'm laughing at people picking the poorest-performing broker to do so. Lrn2freemarket.

So if fcmatt were picking a convalescent home to put his mum in, he would pick the one that costs more, has the electricity shut off randomly, and beats its patients, rather than the one that has excellent service, nice staff, no rolling blackouts, and no beatings? And he would state a completely unrelated, incorrect reason as to why other people don't put their mums in the abusive home with the outages?

Matt don't let your mum know you have such bad skillz at choosing institutions with which to do business based on their performance...

one word: dwolla

that alone makes gox the most interesting exchange for me. i bet it does for many many others too.

CampBX does dwolla as well?

Yes.

good to know. thanks.
BitcoinAshley
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April 12, 2013, 06:57:23 PM
 #22189

Considering the substantial parallels with the June 2011 bubble, I would say that any support at these levels, i.e. 76, is not going to hold. The primary reason is identical with the last time - the onetime flood of new bitcoin buyers is going to dry up. There is only bad media about bitcoin, e.g. no new all time highs to report - now just the crash and how Mt.Gox messed up, same as last time.


If new funds dry up, it'll only be over the weekend. The $1000+ queue and the number of new accounts daily on the major exchanges isn't going to just evaporate. Maybe if Ron Paul came out with a press release tomorrow saying that he officially supported QE Over 9000!, and all the governments working on implementing bail-in procedures for "systemically important institutions" issued statements formally reversing their policies, maybe then the new money coming in might be SLIGHTLY reduced.
Fact is, people are worried about the economy.
Fact is, folks see Bitcoin as a way out and they're not going to let a few DDOSes and the community's over-reliance on an inferior piece of infrastructure get in their way.

Irrational pessimism combined with a complete ignorance of the economic environment that brings people to bitcoin in the first place is just as bad, if not worse, than irrational exuberance.
Richy_T
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April 12, 2013, 06:57:45 PM
 #22190


If MtGox doesn't get its act together, it will require a shift in mindset from Gox to alternate exchanges and off exchange systems like localbitcoins.com. Not a speedbump, more like a moat that has to be crossed after we've built the bridge.



Even if Gox suddenly turns out the perfect exchange, that shift in mindset should still occur. Eggs & baskets.

1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
adamstgBit (OP)
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April 12, 2013, 06:58:11 PM
 #22191

offtopic

don't you think the main problem of bitcoin will be DDoSs

if not on an exchange probably on the blockchain it self

today it took 4 hours (fees payed) for one transaction to be confirmed


there are too many miners, they would have to DDOS all miners, very costly... might aswell use that computing power to mine bitcoin.

also miners can protect themselves from being DDOS'd easily because they don't need to expose themselves to all traffic ( like mtgox has too ) they can block all traffic and only communicate with trusted nodes.

steamboat
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April 12, 2013, 06:58:22 PM
 #22192

I have a new and radical idea, how about NOBODY SELL WHEN THE PRICES ARE LOW and also NOBODY BUY WHEN THE SENTIMENT IS SO BAD.

Just set what you currently have aside as some Bitcoin savings, and buy when you have an actual use for bitcoins or wish to add some more to your long term savings, rather than buy to try and sell a couple of minutes later.

The latter achieves the following:
-Pays Gox or exchangers, essentially twice, when they clearly do not deserve it. You are essentially building a Bitcoin Barclays.
-Destabalizes the currency making it less viable for merchants.
-Take a huge risk for your own money.
-Not a huge chance of you making any significant amount of money

Just don't do it. Stay calm.
Decent advise for those that have no idea what they're doing in order to save them money. Other than that, rubbish.


The answer to any bit coin problem is not "let's all agree not to do this". These are growing pains. If bit coin doesn't rise to the challenge, it doesn't deserve the responsibility.

What happens when someone with less than noble intentions decides to get involved, and decides not to follow the rules.


man the fuck up community. You wanted the responsibility, now use it instead of giving it away.

ASIC miners available for purchase

Those who serve best, profit most.
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April 12, 2013, 06:58:45 PM
 #22193

temporary BTCCharts link http://96.47.239.25/




BTCCharts.com - still for free!
hlynur
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April 12, 2013, 06:59:30 PM
 #22194

I'm just wondering what will happen around 1-3UTC.
Anyone have any idea what happened with this in the end?:




felt that sound from tip to toe

jojo69
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April 12, 2013, 07:00:54 PM
 #22195

moody is down

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
elux
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April 12, 2013, 07:01:13 PM
 #22196

Btccharts temp/backup site is up:



Chalkbot
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April 12, 2013, 07:02:30 PM
 #22197

How is btccharts up for you?


Edit: NM, I see the temp link.
kiko
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April 12, 2013, 07:03:55 PM
 #22198

This is what we like to see. A nice, big, round J-Lo style bottom.
Kazu
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April 12, 2013, 07:04:01 PM
 #22199

I have a new and radical idea, how about NOBODY SELL WHEN THE PRICES ARE LOW and also NOBODY BUY WHEN THE SENTIMENT IS SO BAD.

Just set what you currently have aside as some Bitcoin savings, and buy when you have an actual use for bitcoins or wish to add some more to your long term savings, rather than buy to try and sell a couple of minutes later.

The latter achieves the following:
-Pays Gox or exchangers, essentially twice, when they clearly do not deserve it. You are essentially building a Bitcoin Barclays.
-Destabalizes the currency making it less viable for merchants.
-Take a huge risk for your own money.
-Not a huge chance of you making any significant amount of money

Just don't do it. Stay calm.
Decent advise for those that have no idea what they're doing in order to save them money. Other than that, rubbish.


The answer to any bit coin problem is not "let's all agree not to do this". These are growing pains. If bit coin doesn't rise to the challenge, it doesn't deserve the responsibility.

What happens when someone with less than noble intentions decides to get involved, and decides not to follow the rules.


man the fuck up community. You wanted the responsibility, now use it instead of giving it away.

I'm not saying that we all have to agree to do anything. I'm speculating that what I described is the best for your money as well as the community, which is sort of the entire point of this subforum. I don't have some discrete contract I'm trying to force people to sign. I'm simply saying what I think.

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elux
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April 12, 2013, 07:05:43 PM
 #22200

Any chance this little rally will be nuked by any of you guys dumping while flying blind?  Cheesy Sad *sigh, shrug, sob*
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