Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[BitcoinAshley]

Considering the substantial parallels with the June 2011 bubble, I would say that any support at these levels, i.e. 76, is not going to hold. The primary reason is identical with the last time - the onetime flood of new bitcoin buyers is going to dry up. There is only bad media about bitcoin, e.g. no new all time highs to report - now just the crash and how Mt.Gox messed up, same as last time.

I doubt you were around for 2011. If you were, you're clearly trolling, in case you weren't, here are a few differences between then and now:

1) Money's still pouring in. MtGox ask sum up past 11 mil and rising as of a few minutes ago.

2) In 2011, the hack against MtGox was successful in executive all sells, all the way down to a few cents. Trading stopped, not for 12 hours, but for a couple weeks.

3) The difference in media coverage between then and now is simply astounding, both in quantity and tenor.

4) The 2011 hack came close together with two other major disruptions to Bitcoin, the theft of a large sum of BTC from allinvain, and the debacle with mybitcoin.com.

5) The ancillary network of business, companies and VC that surrounds Bitcoin today wasn't even in its gestation period back then.

Will the price drop this weekend? Quite possibly so, though it's also possible it will hold, like it did last weekend.

If MtGox gets its act together (an enormous IF, btw), this will be a speedbump, nothing more. If MtGox doesn't get its act together, it will require a shift in mindset from Gox to alternate exchanges and off exchange systems like localbitcoins.com. Not a speedbump, more like a moat that has to be crossed after we've built the bridge.

Nah, pffft, that's all little stuff; everything's EXACTLY the same as it was in 2011

BTW, bitfloor's at 98.

[1714229182]

1714229182

[elux]

[Kazu]

Is bitcoinium dead?

[proudhon]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

[Piper67]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

Uuuuup we go! 

[Richy_T]

.... Uh, what? Lol, dude. The issue is not bulls blaming gox for whatever, it is silly people using a service that is incredibly inferior.
There are a dozen other exchanges where you could transfer your BTC to and sell it for USD and make the same profit. Some exchanges even have a higher USD/BTC rate than GoX much of the time. Yet, you choose the one that at any given moment could have 427 seconds of lag time or be completely unreachable due to "victim of our own success."

I'm not laughing at people trying to make money, I'm laughing at people picking the poorest-performing broker to do so. Lrn2freemarket.

So if fcmatt were picking a convalescent home to put his mum in, he would pick the one that costs more, has the electricity shut off randomly, and beats its patients, rather than the one that has excellent service, nice staff, no rolling blackouts, and no beatings? And he would state a completely unrelated, incorrect reason as to why other people don't put their mums in the abusive home with the outages?

Matt don't let your mum know you have such bad skillz at choosing institutions with which to do business based on their performance...

Most people are using Gox cause it is the only one that appears to have it together for getting dollars into it. Then on top of that, there's network effects. The other exchanges offer poor prices on BTC because there's not much fiat in them. I don't know why another solid exchange (for as solid as MtGox is) hasn't popped up to steal Gox's lunch though.

[fcmatt]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

hush. i wish to sell my mining results. i want a pop over 100 quick.

[Krabby]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

I'm agreeing with proudhon.

[phantastisch]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

The biggest bear of them all has spoken. Single Digits here we come !

[Richy_T]

TO THE MOON!!!!

[nagnagnag2]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

[thoughtfan]

Wow, I don't know why I put myself through it but I have finally caught up with this thread since I went to bed last night (though I have managed to get other stuff done in between)!  Some of the accusations that there was too much bull circle-jerking going on were I think not without some justification but at least it was generally fun and bear put-downs were on the whole good-natured.  In contrast the bear circle-jerking seems to have quite a nasty feel to it and I really don't understand why.  From what I understand most of them did quite well from the big drop but they hardly seem in celebratory mood.  For those whose intention from the start was to use bitcoin as a trading vehicle who managed to make tons of money and are in the process of walking away successful: Congratulations and good luck with whatever you move onto next  I don't get coming on here with big 'told-you-sos' and proclaiming the death, or at least the long-time crippling of bitcoin.  If you're done what do you care? Why is it important to you to share your opinion in such a manner.  Bye

If I were going by the mood here as to what's changed I could be forgiven for thinking the price going back to where it was a few short weeks ago is going to have a devastating and long-term impact not only on the price of bitcoin but on its acceptance in practical applications for the foreseeable future.  But despite my diligent reading up here and elsewhere I am failing to see one reason why this should be so.

Bad press?  Gimme a break!  It's been mainly rubbish press all the way and the better press has tended to focus on its potential not so much on its meteoric rise in price.  The big drop tells me there was a substantial amount bought on the basis of price hype and it is those naiive speculators along with the profit-taking speculators (that's not a criticism by the way) who, along with the ridiculous MtGox scenario, have caused the drop.  

But I know I am not alone in having just held on the way down as we had held on the way up and I suspect there are many (together representing a significant amount of coin) for whom the last couple of days means very little.

Whilst I can understand why what just happened may 'feel' just like June 11, to conclude from that that it is 'just like June 11' is to ignore everything that has been going on over the subsequent years and especially this year and last and this month in particular and instead purely to focus in on the rise and fall in price.  Is the claim that it is useless as a medium of exchange reasonable considering there are two days when you could with bad timing have been left with not enough money to buy what you'd exchanged your fiat for?  For the very few who were doing this for the very first time in the last couple of days they might have been put off but what about all those who have benefited time and time again from increases, sometimes not insubstantial, when the market was going the other way?  Are they suddenly going to decide Bitcoin is a bad idea after all?  And volatility?   There seems to be a bear consensus that the big drop means Bitcoin is useless as a store of value.  As a store of value with a predictable any-time-accessible fiat valuation of course it is - and if it took this drop for anyone who bought for that reason to click that it is volatile then they really didn't do any homework before jumping on board.  If they constitute a high enough proportion of those who just lost out and cashed out then they may well cripple the price for some time but not its utility.  But I have an inkling a more substantial proportion of the money held by those using it as a store of value are those who are confident because of its potential that there's a reasonable chance it will at least retain its value.  I understand to many the high risk v. high depreciation means it is considered as an 'investment' but it is still storing value (just riskily and with potential ridiculous gains).

I am sorry for those who lost their shirts even whilst not feeling too sorry for them for having ignored all the warnings and gambled more than they could afford to lose.  I am pleased this big drop has happened because it means we're unlikely to attract the same kind of money in any significant amounts for some time.  You can repeat 'your investment may go down as well as up' until you're blue in the face but the chart with a drop like this is much more powerful as a lesson.

I don't mind the speed at which the fiat price of bitcoin will rise again.  It would be handy if I were able to sell off a couple at a silly profit but I don't need to.  I just think it is inevitable - and probably quicker rather than slower simply because that's how ideas spread by networks of people.  Also if Bitcoin is ever to be playing its gov't-abuse-protective role say in a small village in one of the more despotic countries in Africa so a mother can sell her rice for bitcoin to buy her vegetables for her kids we need to be thinking such trades will likely be in satoshis which also means the price per whole bitcoin will be immense.  I'm not saying it will or it won't but I think it could - and that in this day and age it could happen a lot faster than many people imagine.  And I'm quite happy to play my small role in increasing the odds that this comes to be.

Thank you for reading

[rpietila]

I think the "worst" is behind us. The weekend will see a healthy upwards consolidation (EDIT: as of this writing, the price was $70 and already we are much higher), and next week we will reach the trading range of $100-$120.

There is no psychological support for sub-100 prices. Read: bulls will just buy as long as they see any coins offered for double-digits, and considering that the number of coins is limited, but the number of bulls is not, the outcome is obvious. I also resumed buying at $62 and will happily buy more at anything below $80 this weekend. After 1-2 weeks I am confident to pay $100 per coin. These levels allow me to buy as much as BTC500 per day, something that I never imagined would return!  

Actually there was no "worst". The tree was shaken, and most of the rotten apples are now gone. Almost a million coins changed hands already, achieving the long-term healthy objectives of:

- Balancing the inordinate amount of bitcoin wealth that the early adopters have, compared to their feeble actual position in the real economy, and lacking resources to employ their coins to the good of mankind. (These mainly sold in the run up.)

- Destroying the leveraged speculators and warned the potential future ones. Leverage is meant for controlling large trading positions with small cash outlay, in order to offset risks. Creating risks for yourself, as if bitcoin value appreciation (+600% year-to-date) wasn't enough, is beyond me. I hope the rest of you will sell sub-100, so that we will see a period of price stability. Don't let the door hit you, etc.

- Establishing (hopefully! - this one has not come yet) a stable price for new entrants, big and small

- Enriching people like me, who will provide services in the bitcoin community in the future, and need huge stashes of coin to do so effectively. My coin count was essentially flat (or in slow decline) during the early days of April, but now I think the position is at least BTC1,000 bigger than 48 hours ago. Did not have time to count the coins yet, they are just spread in unique receiver address offline generated paper wallets all over the place, and my broker is having the weekend break he truly deserves  

[jojo69]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

Oh. My. God.

my sides hurt

[Gabi]

Wtf price is already increasing? Ehi ehi wait, i still have to buy!

[wachtwoord]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

Oh. My. God.

my sides hurt

I keep putting that song on and smiling every time I see another "Bitcoin is dead!" article. After they featured something silly like that in today's paper I heard my coworkers talking believing this too. I just chuckled

[justusranvier]

Establishing (hopefully! - this one has not come yet) a stable price for new entrants, big and small

There will be no stable price while the number of bitcoin adopters is growing. The best you can hope for is a stable exponential (linear on a log scale) until half the world is using bitcoins, followed by a gradually decreasing rate until relative stability is achieved with 9 billion users.

Bitcoin has no stable exchange rate between $0 and $10^7. We just don't know yet which one of those stable values will be achieved.

[BitcoinAshley]

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

Oh, so Proudhon is the high-level NSA guy deep in the mountain, in charge of the unfathomably huge datacenter that's responsible for the DDoSes on the exchanges?

 

Well, thanks for warning us  

[BitcoinAshley]

Wow, I don't know why I put myself through it but I have finally caught up with this thread since I went to bed last night (though I have managed to get other stuff done in between)!  Some of the accusations that there was too much bull circle-jerking going on were I think not without some justification but at least it was generally fun and bear put-downs were on the whole good-natured.  In contrast the bear circle-jerking seems to have quite a nasty feel to it and I really don't understand why.  From what I understand most of them did quite well from the big drop but they hardly seem in celebratory mood.  For those whose intention from the start was to use bitcoin as a trading vehicle who managed to make tons of money and are in the process of walking away successful: Congratulations and good luck with whatever you move onto next  I don't get coming on here with big 'told-you-sos' and proclaiming the death, or at least the long-time crippling of bitcoin.  If you're done what do you care? Why is it important to you to share your opinion in such a manner.  Bye

If I were going by the mood here as to what's changed I could be forgiven for thinking the price going back to where it was a few short weeks ago is going to have a devastating and long-term impact not only on the price of bitcoin but on its acceptance in practical applications for the foreseeable future.  But despite my diligent reading up here and elsewhere I am failing to see one reason why this should be so.

Bad press?  Gimme a break!  It's been mainly rubbish press all the way and the better press has tended to focus on its potential not so much on its meteoric rise in price.  The big drop tells me there was a substantial amount bought on the basis of price hype and it is those naiive speculators along with the profit-taking speculators (that's not a criticism by the way) who, along with the ridiculous MtGox scenario, have caused the drop.  

But I know I am not alone in having just held on the way down as we had held on the way up and I suspect there are many (together representing a significant amount of coin) for whom the last couple of days means very little.

Whilst I can understand why what just happened may 'feel' just like June 11, to conclude from that that it is 'just like June 11' is to ignore everything that has been going on over the subsequent years and especially this year and last and this month in particular and instead purely to focus in on the rise and fall in price.  Is the claim that it is useless as a medium of exchange reasonable considering there are two days when you could with bad timing have been left with not enough money to buy what you'd exchanged your fiat for?  For the very few who were doing this for the very first time in the last couple of days they might have been put off but what about all those who have benefited time and time again from increases, sometimes not insubstantial, when the market was going the other way?  Are they suddenly going to decide Bitcoin is a bad idea after all?  And volatility?   There seems to be a bear consensus that the big drop means Bitcoin is useless as a store of value.  As a store of value with a predictable any-time-accessible fiat valuation of course it is - and if it took this drop for anyone who bought for that reason to click that it is volatile then they really didn't do any homework before jumping on board.  If they constitute a high enough proportion of those who just lost out and cashed out then they may well cripple the price for some time but not its utility.  But I have an inkling a more substantial proportion of the money held by those using it as a store of value are those who are confident because of its potential that there's a reasonable chance it will at least retain its value.  I understand to many the high risk v. high depreciation means it is considered as an 'investment' but it is still storing value (just riskily and with potential ridiculous gains).

I am sorry for those who lost their shirts even whilst not feeling too sorry for them for having ignored all the warnings and gambled more than they could afford to lose.  I am pleased this big drop has happened because it means we're unlikely to attract the same kind of money in any significant amounts for some time.  You can repeat 'your investment may go down as well as up' until you're blue in the face but the chart with a drop like this is much more powerful as a lesson.

I don't mind the speed at which the fiat price of bitcoin will rise again.  It would be handy if I were able to sell off a couple at a silly profit but I don't need to.  I just think it is inevitable - and probably quicker rather than slower simply because that's how ideas spread by networks of people.  Also if Bitcoin is ever to be playing its gov't-abuse-protective role say in a small village in one of the more despotic countries in Africa so a mother can sell her rice for bitcoin to buy her vegetables for her kids we need to be thinking such trades will likely be in satoshis which also means the price per whole bitcoin will be immense.  I'm not saying it will or it won't but I think it could - and that in this day and age it could happen a lot faster than many people imagine.  And I'm quite happy to play my small role in increasing the odds that this comes to be.

Thank you for reading

Thanks for the thoughts; I am a fan. 

One small correction: The women in the village in Afric would be using silver grams rather than bitcoins as she does not have a computer or an android or even electricity or running water for that matter.
But, she's still 'on our side' as she's using a deflationary store of value that is not easily controlled by a central bank. 

[justusranvier]

It looks like the buying pressure is coming from Bitfloor now. It keeps getting ahead of Mt Gox by about $10 before someone is able to arbitrage the difference.