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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1811501 times)
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April 12, 2013, 07:41:30 PM
 #22221

Two of my co-workers who hold no coins have been following the bitcoin market since I first told them about it in 2011. Both asked me today for advice on opening & funding exchange accounts and upon hearing about the typical delay involved in getting funds to an account enquired whether I would sell them some of my coins for cash.

Do not underestimate the number of interested parties who have been sitting on the sidelines thinking they have missed the boat and are now chomping at the bit to get in. The difference between now and 2011 is that btc has already demonstrated that it can rise from the ashes once. That is a very important difference.
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April 12, 2013, 07:43:20 PM
 #22222


One small correction: The women in the village in Afric would be using silver grams rather than bitcoins as she does not have a computer or an android or even electricity or running water for that matter.
But, she's still 'on our side' as she's using a deflationary store of value that is not easily controlled by a central bank.  Cheesy

Not all of Africa is like that. And even where it is, cell services often provide communication where there are no landlines (and often no electricity).

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April 12, 2013, 07:44:33 PM
Last edit: April 13, 2013, 08:49:09 AM by thoughtfan
 #22223

Wow, I don't know why I put myself through it but I have finally caught up with this thread since I went to bed last night (though I have managed to get other stuff done in between)!  Some of the accusations that there was too much bull circle-jerking going on were I think not without some justification but at least it was generally fun and bear put-downs were on the whole good-natured.  In contrast the bear circle-jerking seems to have quite a nasty feel to it and I really don't understand why.  From what I understand most of them did quite well from the big drop but they hardly seem in celebratory mood.  For those whose intention from the start was to use bitcoin as a trading vehicle who managed to make tons of money and are in the process of walking away successful: Congratulations and good luck with whatever you move onto next Smiley  I don't get coming on here with big 'told-you-sos' and proclaiming the death, or at least the long-time crippling of bitcoin.  If you're done what do you care? Why is it important to you to share your opinion in such a manner.  Bye Smiley

If I were going by the mood here as to what's changed I could be forgiven for thinking the price going back to where it was a few short weeks ago is going to have a devastating and long-term impact not only on the price of bitcoin but on its acceptance in practical applications for the foreseeable future.  But despite my diligent reading up here and elsewhere I am failing to see one reason why this should be so.

Bad press?  Gimme a break!  It's been mainly rubbish press all the way and the better press has tended to focus on its potential not so much on its meteoric rise in price.  The big drop tells me there was a substantial amount bought on the basis of price hype and it is those naiive speculators along with the profit-taking speculators (that's not a criticism by the way) who, along with the ridiculous MtGox scenario, have caused the drop.  

But I know I am not alone in having just held on the way down as we had held on the way up and I suspect there are many (together representing a significant amount of coin) for whom the last couple of days means very little.

Whilst I can understand why what just happened may 'feel' just like June 11, to conclude from that that it is 'just like June 11' is to ignore everything that has been going on over the subsequent years and especially this year and last and this month in particular and instead purely to focus in on the rise and fall in price.  Is the claim that it is useless as a medium of exchange reasonable considering there are two days when you could with bad timing have been left with not enough money to buy what you'd exchanged your fiat for?  For the very few who were doing this for the very first time in the last couple of days they might have been put off but what about all those who have benefited time and time again from increases, sometimes not insubstantial, when the market was going the other way?  Are they suddenly going to decide Bitcoin is a bad idea after all?  And volatility?   There seems to be a bear consensus that the big drop means Bitcoin is useless as a store of value.  As a store of value with a predictable any-time-accessible fiat valuation of course it is - and if it took this drop for anyone who bought for that reason to click that it is volatile then they really didn't do any homework before jumping on board.  If they constitute a high enough proportion of those who just lost out and cashed out then they may well cripple the price for some time but not its utility.  But I have an inkling a more substantial proportion of the money held by those using it as a store of value are those who are confident because of its potential that there's a reasonable chance it will at least retain its value.  I understand to many the high risk v. high depreciation means it is considered as an 'investment' but it is still storing value (just riskily and with potential ridiculous gains).

I am sorry for those who lost their shirts even whilst not feeling too sorry for them for having ignored all the warnings and gambled more than they could afford to lose.  I am pleased this big drop has happened because it means we're unlikely to attract the same kind of money in any significant amounts for some time.  You can repeat 'your investment may go down as well as up' until you're blue in the face but the chart with a drop like this is much more powerful as a lesson.

I don't mind the speed at which the fiat price of bitcoin will rise again.  It would be handy if I were able to sell off a couple at a silly profit but I don't need to.  I just think it is inevitable - and probably quicker rather than slower simply because that's how ideas spread by networks of people.  Also if Bitcoin is ever to be playing its gov't-abuse-protective role say in a small village in one of the more despotic countries in Africa so a mother can sell her rice for bitcoin to buy her vegetables for her kids we need to be thinking such trades will likely be in satoshis which also means the price per whole bitcoin will be immense.  I'm not saying it will or it won't but I think it could - and that in this day and age it could happen a lot faster than many people imagine.  And I'm quite happy to play my small role in increasing the odds that this comes to be.

Thank you for reading Smiley


Thanks for the thoughts; I am a fan.  Grin

One small correction: The women in the village in Afric would be using silver grams rather than bitcoins as she does not have a computer or an android or even electricity or running water for that matter.
But, she's still 'on our side' as she's using a deflationary store of value that is not easily controlled by a central bank.  Cheesy

Thanks Smiley

You may be right but not for many for long if the mobile telephony adoption rate continues as it is has been of late.  One of the delights is that developing countries are not bound to go through the stages represented by a gradual roll out of land-line networks, the growth of phones in homes, mobile phones, smart phones.  They can easily (providing a means of charging them is found - for which solutions must be being found) simply skip to the latest tech which will also give them access to everything you and I have on our smartphones not least bitcoin apps Smiley
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April 12, 2013, 07:45:09 PM
 #22224

Wow, I don't know why I put myself through it but I have finally caught up with this thread since I went to bed last night (though I have managed to get other stuff done in between)!  Some of the accusations that there was too much bull circle-jerking going on were I think not without some justification but at least it was generally fun and bear put-downs were on the whole good-natured.  In contrast the bear circle-jerking seems to have quite a nasty feel to it and I really don't understand why.  From what I understand most of them did quite well from the big drop but they hardly seem in celebratory mood.  For those whose intention from the start was to use bitcoin as a trading vehicle who managed to make tons of money and are in the process of walking away successful: Congratulations and good luck with whatever you move onto next Smiley  I don't get coming on here with big 'told-you-sos' and proclaiming the death, or at least the long-time crippling of bitcoin.  If you're done what do you care? Why is it important to you to share your opinion in such a manner.  Bye Smiley

If I were going by the mood here as to what's changed I could be forgiven for thinking the price going back to where it was a few short weeks ago is going to have a devastating and long-term impact not only on the price of bitcoin but on its acceptance in practical applications for the foreseeable future.  But despite my diligent reading up here and elsewhere I am failing to see one reason why this should be so.

Bad press?  Gimme a break!  It's been mainly rubbish press all the way and the better press has tended to focus on its potential not so much on its meteoric rise in price.  The big drop tells me there was a substantial amount bought on the basis of price hype and it is those naiive speculators along with the profit-taking speculators (that's not a criticism by the way) who, along with the ridiculous MtGox scenario, have caused the drop.  

But I know I am not alone in having just held on the way down as we had held on the way up and I suspect there are many (together representing a significant amount of coin) for whom the last couple of days means very little.

Whilst I can understand why what just happened may 'feel' just like June 11, to conclude from that that it is 'just like June 11' is to ignore everything that has been going on over the subsequent years and especially this year and last and this month in particular and instead purely to focus in on the rise and fall in price.  Is the claim that it is useless as a medium of exchange reasonable considering there are two days when you could with bad timing have been left with not enough money to buy what you'd exchanged your fiat for?  For the very few who were doing this for the very first time in the last couple of days they might have been put off but what about all those who have benefited time and time again from increases, sometimes not insubstantial, when the market was going the other way?  Are they suddenly going to decide Bitcoin is a bad idea after all?  And volatility?   There seems to be a bear consensus that the big drop means Bitcoin is useless as a store of value.  As a store of value with a predictable any-time-accessible fiat valuation of course it is - and if it took this drop for anyone who bought for that reason to click that it is volatile then they really didn't do any homework before jumping on board.  If they constitute a high enough proportion of those who just lost out and cashed out then they may well cripple the price for some time but not its utility.  But I have an inkling a more substantial proportion of the money held by those using it as a store of value are those who are confident because of its potential that there's a reasonable chance it will at least retain its value.  I understand to many the high risk v. high depreciation means it is considered as an 'investment' but it is still storing value (just riskily and with potential ridiculous gains).

I am sorry for those who lost their shirts even whilst not feeling too sorry for them for having ignored all the warnings and gambled more than they could afford to lose.  I am pleased this big drop has happened because it means we're unlikely to attract the same kind of money in any significant amounts for some time.  You can repeat 'your investment may go down as well as up' until you're blue in the face but the chart with a drop like this is much more powerful as a lesson.

I don't mind the speed at which the fiat price of bitcoin will rise again.  It would be handy if I were able to sell off a couple at a silly profit but I don't need to.  I just think it is inevitable - and probably quicker rather than slower simply because that's how ideas spread by networks of people.  Also if Bitcoin is ever to be playing its gov't-abuse-protective role say in a small village in one of the more despotic countries in Africa so a mother can sell her rice for bitcoin to buy her vegetables for her kids we need to be thinking such trades will likely be in satoshis which also means the price per whole bitcoin will be immense.  I'm not saying it will or it won't but I think it could - and that in this day and age it could happen a lot faster than many people imagine.  And I'm quite happy to play my small role in increasing the odds that this comes to be.

Thank you for reading Smiley


Thanks for the thoughts; I am a fan.  Grin

One small correction: The women in the village in Afric would be using silver grams rather than bitcoins as she does not have a computer or an android or even electricity or running water for that matter.
But, she's still 'on our side' as she's using a deflationary store of value that is not easily controlled by a central bank.  Cheesy

just a little throw in:
http://piccellwireless.blogspot.de/2011/04/cell-phones-vital-new-tool-for-health.html
okay it's an ugly old nokia bone from the 90s, but I wonder what phones they use in 5-10 years when there are octocore-smartphones in 1st world  

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April 12, 2013, 07:45:22 PM
 #22225

So much for "other exchanges". Bitcoin-24 is now shut down with several of my bitcoins in there. Bitcoin is a great idea and protocol but the supporting infrastructure is a farce. The sooner we get away from exchanges altogether, the better I think.

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April 12, 2013, 07:46:29 PM
 #22226

she would pay with m-pesa

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
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April 12, 2013, 07:47:42 PM
 #22227

I'm the guy that had that ask placed at 89.70. They eat half of the wall, then I sold at market at 85. I feel really lucky because I bought today from bitstamp at 65. I wanted the fiat out of Slovenia and I did a 30% in the meanwhile.

Smiley

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Bitcointa.lk - Replace "Bitcointalk.org" with "Bitcointa.lk" in this url to see how this page looks like on a proper forum (Announcement Thread)
Hashfast.org - Wiki for screwed customers
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April 12, 2013, 07:48:30 PM
 #22228

Two of my co-workers who hold no coins have been following the bitcoin market since I first told them about it in 2011. Both asked me today for advice on opening & funding exchange accounts and upon hearing about the typical delay involved in getting funds to an account enquired whether I would sell them some of my coins for cash.

Do not underestimate the number of interested parties who have been sitting on the sidelines thinking they have missed the boat and are now chomping at the bit to get in. The difference between now and 2011 is that btc has already demonstrated that it can rise from the ashes once. That is a very important difference.

I wasn't on site today but received a call this afternoon from the project office where two or three were asking how to buy.  They had been telling me they were thinking about it for some time and once they got reassurance from me that nothing substantial has broken and there is no imminent threat they've decided to take advantage of this price drop to jump on board Smiley  Unfortunately with UK banks being amongst those with the most to lose it is still a pain to buy bitcoin here but I reckon at least two of them will figure it out.
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April 12, 2013, 08:00:27 PM
 #22229

It's a bull market now. Lot of positive press about VC:s etc. I expected harsh treatment from media after crash, but I am pleased it turned that way.
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April 12, 2013, 08:00:47 PM
 #22230

Two of my co-workers who hold no coins have been following the bitcoin market since I first told them about it in 2011. Both asked me today for advice on opening & funding exchange accounts and upon hearing about the typical delay involved in getting funds to an account enquired whether I would sell them some of my coins for cash.

Do not underestimate the number of interested parties who have been sitting on the sidelines thinking they have missed the boat and are now chomping at the bit to get in. The difference between now and 2011 is that btc has already demonstrated that it can rise from the ashes once. That is a very important difference.

I wasn't on site today but received a call this afternoon from the project office where two or three were asking how to buy.  They had been telling me they were thinking about it for some time and once they got reassurance from me that nothing substantial has broken and there is no imminent threat they've decided to take advantage of this price drop to jump on board Smiley  Unfortunately with UK banks being amongst those with the most to lose it is still a pain to buy bitcoin here but I reckon at least two of them will figure it out.

Thanks for sharing, I enjoy anecdotes like these.

We just won't know anything about the bitcoin outlook until bulls have had 72 hours+ to fund the exchanges. Yesterday was basically a sucker-punch by the bears.
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April 12, 2013, 08:02:20 PM
 #22231

*Pokes head out of bomb shelter*

Is....is it safe to come out yet?

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April 12, 2013, 08:06:43 PM
 #22232

she would pay with m-pesa

M-pesa is a ripoff. The fact that it is as popular as it is, just goes to show how atrocious the other money transfer options are. Also, I am quite amused by the discussion the kinds of phones in darkest africa and how one would charge them. I can't speak for the rest of Africa, but i can  assure you that here in South Africa just about everyone has a mobile phone, including kids and shack dwellers.

But I have to log off now. I have to go pedal my exercise bike to charge my laptop battery  Wink
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April 12, 2013, 08:07:13 PM
 #22233

It's a bull market now. Lot of positive press about VC:s etc. I expected harsh treatment from media after crash, but I am pleased it turned that way.

I'll have to wait until tonight to be convinced Tongue.


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April 12, 2013, 08:07:26 PM
 #22234

Well damn,Didn't expect a $20 increase today...seems bullish.

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April 12, 2013, 08:16:13 PM
 #22235

Well damn,Didn't expect a $20 increase today...seems bullish.

Don't forget that on that chart the bears keep throwing up, there's the "Return to the mean". I don't know why some seem so insistent that it applies to this scenario "Except that little bit at the end".

By my eye (trained in physics, not economics), we should actually be in the 120-140 range. I'd be comfortable with just triple digits for a while though.

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April 12, 2013, 08:17:41 PM
 #22236

*Pokes head out of bomb shelter*

Is....is it safe to come out yet?

You sir, pre-empted me. But yes, seems so Smiley

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April 12, 2013, 08:17:57 PM
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*Pokes head out of bomb shelter*

Is....is it safe to come out yet?
Thank you Cheesy First post to make me lol for some time Smiley
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April 12, 2013, 08:20:00 PM
 #22238

Haha, brace yourselves for another DDoS, price smack down, and new lows.

I'm agreeing with proudhon.

fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

no one less people will fall for it this time.

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April 12, 2013, 08:22:42 PM
 #22239

It's a bull market now. Lot of positive press about VC:s etc. I expected harsh treatment from media after crash, but I am pleased it turned that way.

I'll have to wait until tonight to be convinced Tongue.

As much as I want to be bullish, I'm gonna wait until the end of Monday to go off red alert and prob end of next week for full stand-down.

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April 12, 2013, 08:24:27 PM
 #22240

New fiat money is incomming next week from people who wanna pick up some of these cheaps coins.

Remember that real money transfer to exchanges takes about 3-4 days in most countrys. That's money which was send to exchanges right after the crash happened.

"Tonight's the night. And it's going to happen again, and again. It has to happen. Nice night."
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