Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[just1nmc]

Two things. I went to bed last night shortly after the weird low trading levels lag on mtgox started. As expected I woke up this morning to see a moderate dip and recovery. I don't feel like trawling through pages and pages of this thread, but from what little I've checked I deduced that we had (several?) market cooldowns during the past 24h. Have we heard any explanation from gox? Anything else I missed?

Secondly, take a look at this graph.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoins%22%2C%20%22buy%20bitcoin%22&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
The queries for both "buy bitcoin" and "buy bitcoins" peaked on Thursday the 11th, the day after the crash. The volume was also high on the day of the crash, but it is difficult to tell how many of these queries were from people who had not yet heard about the crash. These two days saw an almost 40% higher query volume than the previous peak on April the 3rd. This suggests that the anecdotes we've had on here about people who previously thought they had missed the boat rushing to get in after the crash are not isolated incidents. I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.
 

The trading lag reached 50 minutes as we went from $115 to $85. Eventually gox started a market cooldown, preventing orders from being places for ~15 minutes until the lag was gone. There was one or two more short cooldowns when the lag returned to over 10 minutes. They've also begun to restrict the number of orders each account can place.

[samson]

I'd appreciate a bull run to $130 followed by a flash crash down to the $50's right about now.

[rpietila]

I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.

[ElectricMucus]

I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.

Look yourself in the mirror: http://buttcoin.org/the-cargo-cult-of-bitcoin

[ManBearPig]

Bull trap ahead of DDoS? Or buy signal and hope Gox shut down as as the lag hits?

Lots of $0.10 orders.

[hannesnaude]

... I don't feel like trawling through pages and pages of this thread...

The trading lag reached 50 minutes as we went from $115 to $85. Eventually gox started a market cooldown, preventing orders from being places for ~15 minutes until the lag was gone. There was one or two more short cooldowns when the lag returned to over 10 minutes. They've also begun to restrict the number of orders each account can place.

Thanks a mil man. We really should have a strictly moderated thread or some other central location where this kind of information can be caught up on at a glance. Facts only, no interpretations or predictions. Maybe something like this exists already?

[rpietila]

I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.

Look yourself in the mirror: http://buttcoin.org/the-cargo-cult-of-bitcoin

Why exactly you find it offensive that my followers have cashed out their original investment in double in just 2 months, are riding the freebies of 80% of their bitcoins, and are now prepared to buy some back if ever it hits $30-$50, or sell to the strength if ever we hit a bubble territory again?

[ManBearPig]

Ominous Ask walls developing.

[ElectricMucus]

I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.

Look yourself in the mirror: http://buttcoin.org/the-cargo-cult-of-bitcoin

Why exactly you find it offensive that my followers have cashed out their original investment in double in just 2 months, are riding the freebies of 80% of their bitcoins, and are now prepared to buy some back if ever it hits $30-$50, or sell to the strength if ever we hit a bubble territory again?

Just read it.

[Geddi]

Just read it.

I did.

[ElectricMucus]

rpietila is actually a shaman.

[Coincrazy]

I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.

what is the best exchange to register with ?

do you leave some coins at the exchange or do you immediately move them to your PC. if move to PC, do exchange staff help ?

do you use windows ? IF so could you (even if by PM) tell me which client do you use or suggest to your friends


TIA

[molecular]

My favorite trading platform is that one cafe in my town that has wifi. It also has coffee, beer and at least two bitcoin enthusiasts.

Maybe I should open a cafe, accept bitcoin and morph it into a traditional trading floor. Back to the roots!

Please do. My favorite trading platform is my private-club-cum-office in my town. It also has coffee, white wine, all cutlery made of silver, and biweekly meetings of the Finnish bitcoin elite. I am running a daily volume that was only exceeded by Mt.Gox well into the 2011 

wow! Cafes are also traditionally used for gossiping and sharing news. So that's also a good fit for the bitcoin community

[molecular]

I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months.

What does that mean "you call for"? You wish?

I'd probably be willing to bet against a statement like: "Bitcoin daily vwap will be in the range $100-$120 80% of the days from 4/15 to 7/15 2013."

[Nikolaj06]

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

[NamelessOne]

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

[ManBearPig]

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

It does seem to have found a comfortable point now doesn't it?

I'm thinking: Gox has trading ready to shutdown now on a lag peak - this could make a massive difference to stop any slide. It could have stopped $10 higher had they been ready to this earlier.

To close on $100 today would mean the first green day since the last crash and would be up 8% close-to-close.

I call a close of $120 on Monday.

Free trading's over, little less liquidity in the market now, slower volatile movements too perhaps?

On that basis, I'm back in, all coins, no cash.

[Beta-coiner1]

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Yeah,I think the DDOS and market manipulation will be there until someone has enough cheap coins to sell high when the price does go up due to Coinlabs opening on May 6th.

[NamelessOne]

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

It does seem to have found a comfortable point now doesn't it?

I'm thinking: Gox has trading ready to shutdown now on a lag peak - this could make a massive difference to stop any slide. It could have stopped $10 higher had they been ready to this earlier.

To close on $100 today would mean the first green day since the last crash and would be up 8% close-to-close.

I call a close of $120 on Monday.

Free trading's over, little less liquidity in the market now, slower volatile movements too perhaps?

On that basis, I'm back in, all coins, no cash.

Yes, I'm hopeful also. I was very happy yesterday to see just how effective the brief trade halting cooldowns worked. I'd been saying it for days, 'halt trading briefly, let the lag die down and restart trading' but we all had to see it in action before knowing whether it would be affective or not. The tapered/staggered cooldowns worked wonderfully. 5-10 mins lag is the max we should ever see in my opinion, they should implement an auto cooldown feature if they aren't watching their market 24/7. We can all live with brief 10 minute breaks to fix the blind trading spiral lag, it is helpful for all, and is far different from the 12 hours that pissed everyone off.

[jl2012]

Almost 4k ask wall popped up at 105.. Looks like someone wants the price down..

Or trying to squeeze it into 100$ for a while by equalling the ask and bid in this range. Current 6400btc to 95$ and 6800btc to 105$ and we're stuck in the middle.

It does seem to have found a comfortable point now doesn't it?

I'm thinking: Gox has trading ready to shutdown now on a lag peak - this could make a massive difference to stop any slide. It could have stopped $10 higher had they been ready to this earlier.

To close on $100 today would mean the first green day since the last crash and would be up 8% close-to-close.

I call a close of $120 on Monday.

Free trading's over, little less liquidity in the market now, slower volatile movements too perhaps?

On that basis, I'm back in, all coins, no cash.

Yes, I'm hopeful also. I was very happy yesterday to see just how effective the brief trade halting cooldowns worked. I'd been saying it for days, 'halt trading briefly, let the lag die down and restart trading' but we all had to see it in action before knowing whether it would be affective or not. The tapered/staggered cooldowns worked wonderfully. 5-10 mins lag is the max we should ever see in my opinion, they should implement an auto cooldown feature if they aren't watching their market 24/7. We can all live with brief 10 minute breaks to fix the blind trading spiral lag, it is helpful for all, and is far different from the 12 hours that pissed everyone off.

+1. I think 3 minutes lag is already intolerable.