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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3783767 times)
DutchBrat
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August 19, 2012, 02:27:40 PM
 #141

I'm dying to hear if the conference call has taken place and what the feedback is  Smiley
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August 19, 2012, 02:28:52 PM
 #142

I'm dying to hear if the conference call has taken place and what the feedback is  Smiley

It's going on right now...

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August 19, 2012, 04:02:26 PM
 #143

I'm dying to hear if the conference call has taken place and what the feedback is  Smiley
It's finished. This time I had some kind of problem with my place so it turned from a video chat to a text-only meeting soon.

But expect more of them in the future whenever I'm free to answer questions and make discussions. Smiley

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August 19, 2012, 04:12:31 PM
 #144

I'm dying to hear if the conference call has taken place and what the feedback is  Smiley
It's finished. This time I had some kind of problem with my place so it turned from a video chat to a text-only meeting soon.
Though I can confirm taht we saw his face and heard his voice for some time Tongue

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August 19, 2012, 04:14:18 PM
 #145

I'm dying to hear if the conference call has taken place and what the feedback is  Smiley
It's finished. This time I had some kind of problem with my place so it turned from a video chat to a text-only meeting soon.
Though I can confirm taht we saw his face and heard his voice for some time Tongue

So you have established Friedcat is a human and not a bot.... Well, I guess it is a start Wink
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August 19, 2012, 06:05:29 PM
 #146

I'm dying to hear if the conference call has taken place and what the feedback is  Smiley
It's finished. This time I had some kind of problem with my place so it turned from a video chat to a text-only meeting soon.
Though I can confirm taht we saw his face and heard his voice for some time Tongue

So you have established Friedcat is a human and not a bot.... Well, I guess it is a start Wink

Well the vast majority of the talk happened via skype text messages, so their is a good chat log, if it's okay to post it.

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August 19, 2012, 07:05:26 PM
 #147

I believe the BTC exchange rate is going to plummet, leaving this IPO untenable without an enormous campaign for new funding. This is a shame, because everything I've seen indicates that the individuals behind this are best located and resourced to make this happen. We need at least $100k for this to work out, and we nearly had this before this crash. If BFL succeeds in flooding the market with new mining rigs at the new rate it may be impossible to bring a new ASIC startup to market for another 6-8 months while Bitcoin rebounds.

Of course, ASICMINER's goal should be to sell hardware, and every day that the rate decreases it seems more of a priority for us. For that reason, I propose a change in the the business model.

  • We will only sell well-tested hardware. We will not mine anything for the purpose of paying for development.
  • We will accept preorders for a fixed rate (enough to reach the NRE and then some), but provide rebates to customers when their order is fulfilled which fairly reimburses them for changes in the mining ROI.
  • We will commit to fulfilling orders of at least 16TH by the end of the year, but hopefully more before then. (This is the most conservative estimate I'm willing to propose, but perhaps friedcat can enlighten us.)

It's sad that we have to resort to preorders for units, but really that's the only way to compete with BFL's slimy practices. To make up for it, the least we could do is reimburse customers if the exchange rate/block reward causes problems.

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August 19, 2012, 07:07:21 PM
 #148

I believe the BTC exchange rate is going to plummet, leaving this IPO untenable without an enormous campaign for new funding. This is a shame, because everything I've seen indicates that the individuals behind this are best located and resourced to make this happen. We need at least $100k for this to work out, and we nearly had this before this crash. If BFL succeeds in flooding the market with new mining rigs at the new rate it may be impossible to bring a new ASIC startup to market for another 6-8 months while Bitcoin rebounds.

Of course, ASICMINER's goal should be to sell hardware, and every day that the rate decreases it seems more of a priority for us. For that reason, I propose a change in the the business model.

  • We will only sell well-tested hardware. We will not mine anything for the purpose of paying for development.
  • We will accept preorders for a fixed rate (enough to reach the NRE and then some), but provide rebates to customers when their order is fulfilled which fairly reimburses them for changes in the mining ROI.
  • We will commit to fulfilling orders of at least 16TH by the end of the year, but hopefully more before then. (This is the most conservative estimate I'm willing to propose, but perhaps friedcat can enlighten us.)

It's sad that we have to resort to preorders for units, but really that's the only way to compete with BFL's slimy practices. To make up for it, the least we could do is reimburse customers if the exchange rate/block reward causes problems.
I think this is a too drastic change and I would suggest waiting a couple of days for the price to stabilize then we can talk about pre-orders and such.
//DeaDTerra
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August 19, 2012, 07:11:30 PM
 #149

I think this is a too drastic change and I would suggest waiting a couple of days for the price to stabilize then we can talk about pre-orders and such.
//DeaDTerra

It is a drastic change, and I'm tentative about it. And it requires more thought. And we should wait a couple days (it's not like we can liquidate now anyway). But I think even if we hit BTCUSD of 6 we're screwed without a backup plan, and that's the only plan I could think of.

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August 19, 2012, 07:20:09 PM
 #150

i'm agreeign with DeaDterra on this one. the "crash" happenedless then two days ago. things are far from stabilized. we could easily see a drastic change in the coming week, in either direction. i couldn't even begin to reasonably speculate on where the price will be in 7 days, let alone further out. before we go persuing any drastic changes, lets see how the IPO and the BTC price actually shake out the next few days.
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August 19, 2012, 07:34:23 PM
 #151

I believe the BTC exchange rate is going to plummet, leaving this IPO untenable without an enormous campaign for new funding. This is a shame, because everything I've seen indicates that the individuals behind this are best located and resourced to make this happen. We need at least $100k for this to work out, and we nearly had this before this crash. If BFL succeeds in flooding the market with new mining rigs at the new rate it may be impossible to bring a new ASIC startup to market for another 6-8 months while Bitcoin rebounds.

Of course, ASICMINER's goal should be to sell hardware, and every day that the rate decreases it seems more of a priority for us. For that reason, I propose a change in the the business model.

I don't understand the need to change the business model.... You say ASICMINER needs at least $100K to work out.... I thought it was $200K

Friedcat posted the other day that 8000 BTC had already been raised with another 7000 BTC waiting to be fulfilled
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1107204#msg1107204

15.000 BTC * $7 > $100K

So we are still good to go, if it is $100K and the original plan for the IPO was to raise a total of 200.000 shares @ 0.10 = 20.000 BTC

That would mean even at $5 it could still be viable

For me part of the appeal was that ASICMINER itself will be mining, 'guaranteeing' the return of the original investment, whereupon mining and sales would lead to additional revenue and profits.... To be just investing in a hardware producer is something completely different, not to mention taking pre-orders and compensating customers, how laudable that may be....

Let's see what the status of the IPO is August 28th (that was the original deadline if I remember correctly) and then do a go / no go or change the entire business model....

Anyway.... upon re-reading your post it leads me to believe you are not one of the people behind the ASICMINER project, but just concerned about your investment (?) so let's let one of the spokespersons for ASICMINER handle the remainder of the IPO

 
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August 19, 2012, 07:39:00 PM
 #152

I believe the BTC exchange rate is going to plummet, leaving this IPO untenable without an enormous campaign for new funding. This is a shame, because everything I've seen indicates that the individuals behind this are best located and resourced to make this happen. We need at least $100k for this to work out, and we nearly had this before this crash. If BFL succeeds in flooding the market with new mining rigs at the new rate it may be impossible to bring a new ASIC startup to market for another 6-8 months while Bitcoin rebounds.

Of course, ASICMINER's goal should be to sell hardware, and every day that the rate decreases it seems more of a priority for us. For that reason, I propose a change in the the business model.

  • We will only sell well-tested hardware. We will not mine anything for the purpose of paying for development.
  • We will accept preorders for a fixed rate (enough to reach the NRE and then some), but provide rebates to customers when their order is fulfilled which fairly reimburses them for changes in the mining ROI.
  • We will commit to fulfilling orders of at least 16TH by the end of the year, but hopefully more before then. (This is the most conservative estimate I'm willing to propose, but perhaps friedcat can enlighten us.)

It's sad that we have to resort to preorders for units, but really that's the only way to compete with BFL's slimy practices. To make up for it, the least we could do is reimburse customers if the exchange rate/block reward causes problems.

Making the business model a function of the market value of BTC is a bad idea. Especially since it's quite volatile.
Pre-orders are a liability. Because you sell a product which doesn't exist yet.

If you really want to open another source of funding we can sell "options" for the produced chips on GLBSE. That is e.g. issue 50000 shares each worth 1 chip. Each share then earns the "right" to buy a unit. But the price still has to be determined...

Then you solve two problems at once:
1) you don't have a liability, because the people are more aware of the risk. You can put a disclaimer.
2) The shares are transferable. If people change their mind they can easily transfer their allocation to other people at market value.

BFL does it completely wrong. What do you think will happen if they find out that the production costs for the chips was 2x as high, or even that their design has a 50% failure rate? They're going to be sued sooner or later.

ADDENDUM:
You can even employ that strategy longterm and solve the allocation dilemma nicely... Because if the chips are out of the factory the question arises who will get them first? Let shares decide..

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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August 19, 2012, 07:50:34 PM
 #153

i'm agreeign with DeaDterra on this one. the "crash" happenedless then two days ago. things are far from stabilized. we could easily see a drastic change in the coming week, in either direction. i couldn't even begin to reasonably speculate on where the price will be in 7 days, let alone further out. before we go persuing any drastic changes, lets see how the IPO and the BTC price actually shake out the next few days.

exactly. patience my friends. The trust in BTC in not going anywhere. A lot of speculators are going to make a loss within the next few days.

It all depends on the cash-out strategy for the IPO as well. If you can keep some of the funds in BTC you can go long on those which alleviates any under-valuation of BTC at the moment.
@friedcat: When's the money for the foundry due? And have you talked about a payment schedule? E.g. 20% upfront, 50% on delivery and 30% on successful testing?

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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August 19, 2012, 07:51:50 PM
 #154

I don't understand the need to change the business model.... You say ASICMINER needs at least $100K to work out.... I thought it was $200K

200k shares were issued but the target was to make at least $100k from the IPO or it would be refunded. NRE costs $90k and the extra $10k was for financial buffer to pay for PCBs, testing etc.

Anyway.... upon re-reading your post it leads me to believe you are not one of the people behind the ASICMINER project, but just concerned about your investment (?) so let's let one of the spokespersons for ASICMINER handle the remainder of the IPO

Actually I have 5000 shares and I was in the board meeting earlier.. You're quoting financial figures that are outdated because of the recent crash. None of the BTC invested so far have been liquidated. We are not set to meet our IPO target at this rate.

I believe the BTC exchange rate is going to plummet, leaving this IPO untenable without an enormous campaign for new funding. This is a shame, because everything I've seen indicates that the individuals behind this are best located and resourced to make this happen. We need at least $100k for this to work out, and we nearly had this before this crash. If BFL succeeds in flooding the market with new mining rigs at the new rate it may be impossible to bring a new ASIC startup to market for another 6-8 months while Bitcoin rebounds.

Of course, ASICMINER's goal should be to sell hardware, and every day that the rate decreases it seems more of a priority for us. For that reason, I propose a change in the the business model.

  • We will only sell well-tested hardware. We will not mine anything for the purpose of paying for development.
  • We will accept preorders for a fixed rate (enough to reach the NRE and then some), but provide rebates to customers when their order is fulfilled which fairly reimburses them for changes in the mining ROI.
  • We will commit to fulfilling orders of at least 16TH by the end of the year, but hopefully more before then. (This is the most conservative estimate I'm willing to propose, but perhaps friedcat can enlighten us.)

It's sad that we have to resort to preorders for units, but really that's the only way to compete with BFL's slimy practices. To make up for it, the least we could do is reimburse customers if the exchange rate/block reward causes problems.

Making the business model a function of the market value of BTC is a bad idea. Especially since it's quite volatile.
Pre-orders are a liability. Because you sell a product which doesn't exist yet.

If you really want to open another source of funding we can sell "options" for the produced chips on GLBSE. That is e.g. issue 50000 shares each worth 1 chip. Each share then earns the "right" to buy a unit. But the price still has to be determined...

Then you solve two problems at once:
1) you don't have a liability, because the people are more aware of the risk. You can put a disclaimer.
2) The shares are transferable. If people change their mind they can easily transfer their allocation to other people at market value.

BFL does it completely wrong. What do you think will happen if they find out that the production costs for the chips was 2x as high, or even that their design has a 50% failure rate? They're going to be sued sooner or later.

ADDENDUM:
You can even employ that strategy longterm and solve the allocation dilemma nicely... Because if the chips are out of the factory the question arises who will get them first? Let shares decide..

Very good suggestions.

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." John von Neumann
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DutchBrat
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August 19, 2012, 07:59:57 PM
 #155

I don't understand the need to change the business model.... You say ASICMINER needs at least $100K to work out.... I thought it was $200K

200k shares were issued but the target was to make at least $100k from the IPO or it would be refunded. NRE costs $90k and the extra $10k was for financial buffer to pay for PCBs, testing etc.


I read the OP and they were indeed targeting a minimum of $100K

So then there is as of yet nothing to worry about.... 8.000 BTC already raised, 7.000 BTC is pledged (although it is not sure how much of that will actually be fulfilled of course)

15.000 X $ 7.80 (as of the time of writing) = $ 117.000

Now nobody knows of course what the $ value of a Bitcoin will be when the IPO closes, but I like to be optimistic

I myself don't see the vlaue of BTC crashing.... if that were the case I would certainly NOT invest in an ASIC, but I do see a bright future for Bitcoin, that's why I like the part mining concept of this stock...Only selling the hardware has got nothing to do with Bitcoin itself... you might just as well be selling an ASIC for SETI or WorldGrid

Anyway, again my wish would be to see how the IPO ends.... but again... let's leave that up to Friedcat and his friends before we start flooding the tread with how we think they should change their business model
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August 19, 2012, 08:17:59 PM
 #156

I read the OP and they were indeed targeting a minimum of $100K

So then there is as of yet nothing to worry about.... 8.000 BTC already raised, 7.000 BTC is pledged (although it is not sure how much of that will actually be fulfilled of course)

15.000 X $ 7.80 (as of the time of writing) = $ 117.000

There is no guarantee that the reserved shares will go through. In fact, due to the crash, it's even less likely because the investment risk has practically doubled. So taking that math and applying it fairly to what we have already raised:

8000 X $ 7.80 = $62,400

I promise you the price has not even begun bottoming out yet. It could hit 5 tonight.

Anyway, again my wish would be to see how the IPO ends.... but again... let's leave that up to Friedcat and his friends before we start flooding the tread with how we think they should change their business model

I'm not making any decisions, I'm making suggestions (and getting some constructive feedback in return). I really want this stock to win, just because it's the only chance Bitcoin has to not be suffocated by BFL for the next half a year or more. I'll take my shares back (I've already lost most of their value) but I'd rather find a better plan.

The options for each unit idea is pretty cool sounding, way better than my rebate idea. Of course friedcat should make the big calls because he's much more knowledgeable about this stuff.

edit: also, it is not sustainable to be a mining company building our own ASICs. I'm sorry. Selling the hardware is way more profitable and allows the hashrate to be distributed to more people anyway. If we mine ourselves we'll cave in on our own difficulty. This is why BFL is not setting up giant mining farms, the less they mine the more hardware they can sell. They know they can manage to be the only source of competitive mining rigs.

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August 19, 2012, 09:11:07 PM
 #157

Well, this place was very busy today. I was going to post about the skype meeting, but I see the news is out Grin

So you have established Friedcat is a human and not a bot.... Well, I guess it is a start Wink

Since I was the only one who actually got a good look at him while testing a couple of hours earlier, I can say that he is perfectly human. If it's a bot it's a well made one. Terminator good...

If I had known there would be problems later I would have stayed longer and talked with him. Trust wise I'm more than satisfied anyway, and hopefully we can get a glimpse of the working environment, and his partners later on. The latter was the main point for me but I forgot to tell Friedcat that until the same day Undecided Thoughts were going in many directions so it is impossible to give a summary, though. A big issue is the bitcoin price but you already knew that, another is managing the heat generated by the chip. Opposite ends of the spectrum. Friedcat had a hard time competing for the attention so information was a little thin because of the format. Maybe my fault for rushing things, while he was in Beijing?

About the market price; since I haven't actually invested any money yet, I have mixed feelings on it, but the day after a crash isn't the time to make predictions. A few days ago greed ruled, and now it's fear, and just a month ago $8 was reached for the first time in a long while and it was being considered phenomenal. Hardly panic worthy. Until we know what happens to the reservations we know nothing.
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August 19, 2012, 09:28:30 PM
 #158

Well, this place was very busy today. I was going to post about the skype meeting, but I see the news is out Grin

So you have established Friedcat is a human and not a bot.... Well, I guess it is a start Wink

Since I was the only one who actually got a good look at him while testing a couple of hours earlier, I can say that he is perfectly human. If it's a bot it's a well made one. Terminator good...

If I had known there would be problems later I would have stayed longer and talked with him. Trust wise I'm more than satisfied anyway, and hopefully we can get a glimpse of the working environment, and his partners later on. The latter was the main point for me but I forgot to tell Friedcat that until the same day Undecided Thoughts were going in many directions so it is impossible to give a summary, though. A big issue is the bitcoin price but you already knew that, another is managing the heat generated by the chip. Opposite ends of the spectrum. Friedcat had a hard time competing for the attention so information was a little thin because of the format. Maybe my fault for rushing things, while he was in Beijing?

About the market price; since I haven't actually invested any money yet, I have mixed feelings on it, but the day after a crash isn't the time to make predictions. A few days ago greed ruled, and now it's fear, and just a month ago $8 was reached for the first time in a long while and it was being considered phenomenal. Hardly panic worthy. Until we know what happens to the reservations we know nothing.

I think it would be worthwhile to funnel all these questions/answers into a system. A wiki would be an option.
But before that we have to decide on which information is actually confidential (trade secret) and which is open to the public. If we want to share confidential information, we need either a gatekeeper (trusted person) or a secure system to logon to. I am pessimistic that we can keep anything confidential which enters the realm of the internet. So someone has to make a decision on what information is fit for the public and which is not. For now that would be friedcat I guess.

Also, even though board members may assume a higher trust level, you may consider that one of them can be a current/future competitor. Just saying.... trust no one.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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August 19, 2012, 11:15:11 PM
 #159


Warning.  This is premature, but there has been a large spike in network capacity over the past couple of days.

Let's hope it's variance, but it's a hockey stick pattern.




Edit:
700 GH of the above was added to the EMC pool under multiple pool accounts.  Seems like current technology and not an ASIC scare - but what about the other 3 TH?  Variance?
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August 20, 2012, 12:56:33 AM
 #160


Warning.  This is premature, but there has been a large spike in network capacity over the past couple of days.

Let's hope it's variance, but it's a hockey stick pattern.




Edit:
700 GH of the above was added to the EMC pool under multiple pool accounts.  Seems like current technology and not an ASIC scare - but what about the other 3 TH?  Variance?

I'm guessing that the new 'stable' Glasswalker bitstream for the Enterpoint FPGAs has got something to do with the spike in the hashrate

3TH? No, but it is a noticeable addition
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