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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3783793 times)
matauc12
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September 24, 2012, 01:36:42 PM
 #561

I don't understand why you analyze it that much. Know what I would do if I couldn't pay my rent right now? She assets I own at a price it will sell instantly. Plus I bought 2200 shares at 0.88, so it would be a 10% or so profit at 0.1. There is many reasons to sell 10-20% below current offer, one of which is manipulation, which is illegal but also mostly harmless and hard to prove in this kind of case.

When you bought at 0.88btc that probably was right at ipo. Its a real good trade because its the exact amount that would include the 12.5% on top that was offered. Thats probably why this price happened. I doubt this will happen again.
Youre right... when someone bought at 0.88 or bought at ipo with getting 12.5% then 0.1btc would be a profit. Maybe this person doesnt think that the share has potential to give him even higher returns and planned to buy including the 12.5% and sell it over time. So he doesnt have to take the risk that the chips dont work while he had made a sure profit in the meanwhile. Or he thinks its better to have invested less money.

Ok... i think it sounds like a good explaination that someone bought many shares at ipo including the 12.5% and planned to sell it before the chips come out to make a safe profit without risks. So he is holding a big number of shares and is selling it over time.
Only downside to this is... it doesnt make so much sense. He could set an offer for 20.000 shares at 1.1 and im sure he would have made more money with this while even saving the glbse-fees in the meanwhile. Dunno...
Yeah, indeed, that price has no logical way to be reached again without company performance data. If there some news about anything that might imply the company/product would not be as profitable/successful, that's another story.
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Graet
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September 25, 2012, 11:36:00 AM
 #562

If 1 not before seen IP starts hashing away at 40% of the network speed people are going to worry... If however all pools still have the same proportional hashrate then what is there to worry about ? Or who will know this comes from 1 farm ?

What strange world it would be where people can more easily see blocks broadcast from a single IP than read this thread, or listen to what I and now everyone else reading this who doesn't have a vested interest in seeing ASICMINER succeed are going to tell people. :-) Where does most of the core technical information get disseminated from? IRC, currently. And where do normal people get their information from? The technical people. Unless ASICMINER suddenly starts operating completely in secret, why and how would you hide your activities considering the GLBSE stock prices are directly tied to public information?

All this together means that spreading out your hashrate to other pools is basically pointless. Difficulty will increase, people will wonder why, and everyone who knows ASICMINER's schedules is going to tell them, "Oh, that extra 12TH is ASICMINER." There is no hiding in multiple pools. It's an illusion, and will be 99% transparent.

But yes, If Graet (nothing personal  Wink ) thinks up an elaborate scheme, hacks his bitcoind, DDOSes all other pools and ASICMINER points all its hashing power to OzCoin, then we have a problem... but what is keeping Graet from doing the same now ? (or do I misunderstand you?)

DDoS not required. What's keeping graet from doing it now? Absolutely nothing, he already has the IPO money now, doesn't he?

To alleviate your concerns about cannibalizing your own customers, here's a quote from Friedcat on expanding ASICMINERs mining operation


An additional question: Why does the company not want to or sees it feasible to expand beyond 50TH/s for their own mining farm ?

Is that an 'effort' / location constraint ?

Thanks
It may be feasible, but there are some more facts to consider:

1. When we begin to sell products to customers, limitlessly expansion will harm the buyers' motivation, hence the revenue via selling.
2. If may be better to keep the revenue for R&D of the next-generation of products than expand too much with the original technology, especially that we want to stay in the mining ASIC industry and help securing the network in the long run.

This doesn't really alleviate my concern: this validates it. friedcat is already aware of this problem. What he's really saying here is, "We're only cannibalizing our customers a little bit."

So the money's already there: you're using the mining as a force-multiplier. It's, much as the order to sell the bitcoins, a gambling effort with an unknown payoff, and the gamble is with investors' money.

Perhaps someone thought that they couldn't get full NRE+R&D from just an IPO? In that case, why open it up to the public @ GLBSE at all? That's just greedy. Smiley
Bolded the bit I don't get Smiley
havent read all the thread but just wanted to point out I am involved in ZERO IPO's i guess this was just a typo Smiley
best wishes
Graet

| Ozcoin Pooled Mining Pty Ltd https://ozcoin.net Double Geometric Reward System https://lc.ozcoin.net for Litecoin mining DGM| https://crowncloud.net VPS and Dedicated Servers for the BTC community
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September 25, 2012, 11:47:46 AM
 #563

If 1 not before seen IP starts hashing away at 40% of the network speed people are going to worry... If however all pools still have the same proportional hashrate then what is there to worry about ? Or who will know this comes from 1 farm ?

What strange world it would be where people can more easily see blocks broadcast from a single IP than read this thread, or listen to what I and now everyone else reading this who doesn't have a vested interest in seeing ASICMINER succeed are going to tell people. :-) Where does most of the core technical information get disseminated from? IRC, currently. And where do normal people get their information from? The technical people. Unless ASICMINER suddenly starts operating completely in secret, why and how would you hide your activities considering the GLBSE stock prices are directly tied to public information?

All this together means that spreading out your hashrate to other pools is basically pointless. Difficulty will increase, people will wonder why, and everyone who knows ASICMINER's schedules is going to tell them, "Oh, that extra 12TH is ASICMINER." There is no hiding in multiple pools. It's an illusion, and will be 99% transparent.

But yes, If Graet (nothing personal  Wink ) thinks up an elaborate scheme, hacks his bitcoind, DDOSes all other pools and ASICMINER points all its hashing power to OzCoin, then we have a problem... but what is keeping Graet from doing the same now ? (or do I misunderstand you?)

DDoS not required. What's keeping graet from doing it now? Absolutely nothing, he already has the IPO money now, doesn't he?

To alleviate your concerns about cannibalizing your own customers, here's a quote from Friedcat on expanding ASICMINERs mining operation


An additional question: Why does the company not want to or sees it feasible to expand beyond 50TH/s for their own mining farm ?

Is that an 'effort' / location constraint ?

Thanks
It may be feasible, but there are some more facts to consider:

1. When we begin to sell products to customers, limitlessly expansion will harm the buyers' motivation, hence the revenue via selling.
2. If may be better to keep the revenue for R&D of the next-generation of products than expand too much with the original technology, especially that we want to stay in the mining ASIC industry and help securing the network in the long run.

This doesn't really alleviate my concern: this validates it. friedcat is already aware of this problem. What he's really saying here is, "We're only cannibalizing our customers a little bit."

So the money's already there: you're using the mining as a force-multiplier. It's, much as the order to sell the bitcoins, a gambling effort with an unknown payoff, and the gamble is with investors' money.

Perhaps someone thought that they couldn't get full NRE+R&D from just an IPO? In that case, why open it up to the public @ GLBSE at all? That's just greedy. Smiley
Bolded the bit I don't get Smiley
havent read all the thread but just wanted to point out I am involved in ZERO IPO's i guess this was just a typo Smiley
best wishes
Graet

Yeah, I'm pretty sure he meant Friedcat
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September 25, 2012, 12:18:24 PM
 #564

Meanwhile - regarding the ASIC 51% discussion ...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110090.msg1218245#msg1218245
Seriously, it's not gonna happen.

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
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Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
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September 25, 2012, 12:49:46 PM
 #565

friedcat... if im not wrong then the chips are now in production right? But why does it take a month for that? I mean production sounds to me like printing by robots and ready. So its probably more than that. Like persons that need to work on it and so on. So when the process isnt in your and your friends hands at the moment... cant the process be speed up by giving the production company some more money? So they can attach more people at the problem or maybe move your chips to the front of productionqueue and so on.

I only ask if its not possible to move this thing with money. Because the money spent here can be back fast when the chips are running some days earlier. Even the more if your asics are the first working.

Only a question... money moves the world... so.... Smiley
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September 25, 2012, 01:00:12 PM
 #566

\ I mean production sounds to me like printing by robots and ready. \

The "printing" is very very very very very slow in the first step. then it will be fast.

16SvwJtQET7mkHZFFbJpgPaDA1Pxtmbm5P
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September 25, 2012, 01:04:17 PM
 #567

Care to elaborate what things eat this time? I mean every production step i can imagine wouldnt take long. But im not a pro in this area. Such a timeframe sounds like the chips has to grow naturally... Smiley
Or is it only because of the amount of chips?
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September 25, 2012, 01:16:09 PM
 #568

Care to elaborate what things eat this time? I mean every production step i can imagine wouldnt take long. But im not a pro in this area. Such a timeframe sounds like the chips has to grow naturally... Smiley
Or is it only because of the amount of chips?

The hardest step once you have the design finished is "tape out", where they produce the lithography mask for chip production. This takes awhile and must be triple checked by both friedcat's people and the fab. Then, he has to wait about a month for his slot in the queue at the fab to come up, then the fab produces the chips and then (optionally) shoves them in a package (the metal or plastic thing with pins sticking out that you call a chip; the actual circuit is inside of that).

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September 25, 2012, 01:23:13 PM
 #569

Care to elaborate what things eat this time? I mean every production step i can imagine wouldnt take long. But im not a pro in this area. Such a timeframe sounds like the chips has to grow naturally... Smiley
Or is it only because of the amount of chips?

The hardest step once you have the design finished is "tape out", where they produce the lithography mask for chip production. This takes awhile and must be triple checked by both friedcat's people and the fab. Then, he has to wait about a month for his slot in the queue at the fab to come up, then the fab produces the chips and then (optionally) shoves them in a package (the metal or plastic thing with pins sticking out that you call a chip; the actual circuit is inside of that).

Also, friedcat mentioned to get the paper work done for a hot run, which should speed things up a little bit.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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September 25, 2012, 02:40:42 PM
 #570

Ah ok... i read at wikipedia what lithography mask means and it seems its similar to etching a platine. I can imagine that the work on it takes a while. But i can imagine that some more man at it could speed the work up. The etching itself probably is faster or is it a very slow process because of the miniatue so to not break anything in process?

And the month until getting the queue in fab... i only can imagine that money can speed it up. What from it will take a month. That so many products are before it or the creation itself? If the creation itself isnt the biggest factor then for example they get some thousand $ and the whole fab is working on a sunday creating the product. Ready, shipped and mining away. The thousand $ are back fast way before bfl or any competitor has the chance. And as far as i remember there still is money available that isnt spent and probably isnt needed to spend.

I only mean... when time is of essence like in this case... every possible advantage should be checked. Smiley At least asking doesnt cost friedcat anything. And maybe he gets surprised... Smiley
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September 25, 2012, 03:44:00 PM
 #571

Ah ok... i read at wikipedia what lithography mask means and it seems its similar to etching a platine. I can imagine that the work on it takes a while. But i can imagine that some more man at it could speed the work up. The etching itself probably is faster or is it a very slow process because of the miniatue so to not break anything in process?

Etching isn't done by hand. This is an entirely automated process. Features on these chips are thinner than a human hair. Its _kind of_ similar to etching a plate, but its really difficult. Its not as slow as you think once the wafers are actually being processed, its the whole lead up to that part of the process that takes time.

From the end of tape out to slapping the chips on circuit boards is about a 3 month process for most people on small runs on large node sizes (>=65nm) depending on the fab. As long as friedcat gets these all done before the Chinese New Year, we're fine.

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September 25, 2012, 06:18:07 PM
 #572

Ok... i only wanted to find out if every possible thing was done to move this a bit faster. Sometimes one doesnt have all ideas... Smiley
matauc12
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September 26, 2012, 01:30:46 AM
 #573

Ah ok... i read at wikipedia what lithography mask means and it seems its similar to etching a platine. I can imagine that the work on it takes a while. But i can imagine that some more man at it could speed the work up. The etching itself probably is faster or is it a very slow process because of the miniatue so to not break anything in process?

And the month until getting the queue in fab... i only can imagine that money can speed it up. What from it will take a month. That so many products are before it or the creation itself? If the creation itself isnt the biggest factor then for example they get some thousand $ and the whole fab is working on a sunday creating the product. Ready, shipped and mining away. The thousand $ are back fast way before bfl or any competitor has the chance. And as far as i remember there still is money available that isnt spent and probably isnt needed to spend.

I only mean... when time is of essence like in this case... every possible advantage should be checked. Smiley At least asking doesnt cost friedcat anything. And maybe he gets surprised... Smiley
A legitimate and reputatable company works on a first come first serve basis. If you are the 10th in line at McDonalds, and people would be served before you because you had a "pay double, be served instantly option". How would you feel? Ignored because you choose to pay the normal price?
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September 26, 2012, 01:55:48 AM
 #574

Move with the market. When I see multiple players looking to either liquidate large positions, or short sell an asset I'm holding, it's a good day to sell it down.

I am curious. What investment logic do you exploit here? What you said only makes sense if the players act as trend setters and you either want to liquidate anyway or re-buy at a lower price.

If the long position threatens the portfolio with downside risk (and on GLBSE that downside can take a very steep turn) and a the risk of not returning to the entry point (or profit point) is high, then it's absolutely time to jettison the position as a loser. If the opportunity for entry at a bottom presents itself, then re-entering the position is a possibility if funds have not been reallocated by then.

So, in short, the trading logic that limits my losses, and presents additional opportunities for gains.

(but truly, the above is trading logic, not investment logic. I do not like to hold most GLBSE assets for very long - I don't really regard most as investments. I have some interest in ASICMINER but regard GLBSE as too high a risk at this time, and am liquidating my holdings there)

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September 26, 2012, 09:49:26 AM
 #575

A legitimate and reputatable company works on a first come first serve basis. If you are the 10th in line at McDonalds, and people would be served before you because you had a "pay double, be served instantly option". How would you feel? Ignored because you choose to pay the normal price?

LOL, welcome to the reality. What do you think will happen if a big costumer of the foundry is asking for a reduced timeline or some test wafers that are important to the development? Do you really thing they will be told 'we are a legitimate company, you have to wait?'. This would be last time the big costumer were asking this fab as there a lot of other 'illegitimate and unreputatable company' who work first for their shareholders benefit.

What Do you think  'hot run' and 'super hot run' mean? Pay some money and become a vip costumer and get your chips a little more ASAP. On the other side there are (at least at 'my' pcb-manufacturer) reduced rates if you can wait a little longer.
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September 26, 2012, 10:05:48 AM
 #576

A legitimate and reputatable company works on a first come first serve basis. If you are the 10th in line at McDonalds, and people would be served before you because you had a "pay double, be served instantly option". How would you feel? Ignored because you choose to pay the normal price?

LOL, welcome to the reality. What do you think will happen if a big costumer of the foundry is asking for a reduced timeline or some test wafers that are important to the development? Do you really thing they will be told 'we are a legitimate company, you have to wait?'. This would be last time the big costumer were asking this fab as there a lot of other 'illegitimate and unreputatable company' who work first for their shareholders benefit.

What Do you think  'hot run' and 'super hot run' mean? Pay some money and become a vip costumer and get your chips a little more ASAP. On the other side there are (at least at 'my' pcb-manufacturer) reduced rates if you can wait a little longer.

Even if that is true: most foundries have very large customers that get privileged treatment anyway because they are repeat customers with a lot of business. I am afraid our little $ 100K project does not have the funds to bribe it's way to the front of the queue and will certainly be the one put on the back burner when one of the regular big customers wants a run done.

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September 26, 2012, 10:30:09 AM
 #577

Friedcat: Have you guys thought about mining software yet ? Will you develop that in-house or get supported by CGMiner for instance ?

Don't know if that part can be started before the actual product is in your hands ? That will also take time I assume
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September 26, 2012, 10:41:43 AM
 #578

Friedcat: Have you guys thought about mining software yet ? Will you develop that in-house or get supported by CGMiner for instance ?

Don't know if that part can be started before the actual product is in your hands ? That will also take time I assume
We will make/customize our own version at first when the PCB design is finalized. After we publish the PCB interface to the community, and people make better open source software than ours, we will possibly switch.

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September 26, 2012, 10:45:08 AM
 #579

A legitimate and reputatable company works on a first come first serve basis. If you are the 10th in line at McDonalds, and people would be served before you because you had a "pay double, be served instantly option". How would you feel? Ignored because you choose to pay the normal price?

LOL, welcome to the reality. What do you think will happen if a big costumer of the foundry is asking for a reduced timeline or some test wafers that are important to the development? Do you really thing they will be told 'we are a legitimate company, you have to wait?'. This would be last time the big costumer were asking this fab as there a lot of other 'illegitimate and unreputatable company' who work first for their shareholders benefit.

What Do you think  'hot run' and 'super hot run' mean? Pay some money and become a vip costumer and get your chips a little more ASAP. On the other side there are (at least at 'my' pcb-manufacturer) reduced rates if you can wait a little longer.

Even if that is true: most foundries have very large customers that get privileged treatment anyway because they are repeat customers with a lot of business. I am afraid our little $ 100K project does not have the funds to bribe it's way to the front of the queue and will certainly be the one put on the back burner when one of the regular big customers wants a run done.

(Super) hot run, as well as MLM process, is made possible because we are lucky, happening to be in the quarter when large players are less than other seasons. Smiley

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September 26, 2012, 10:49:02 AM
 #580

Friedcat: Have you guys thought about mining software yet ? Will you develop that in-house or get supported by CGMiner for instance ?

Don't know if that part can be started before the actual product is in your hands ? That will also take time I assume
We will make/customize our own version at first when the PCB design is finalized. After we publish the PCB interface to the community, and people make better open source software than ours, we will possibly switch.
BFGMiner announce (coming soon) ASICMiner support  https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=78192

Плюну в ухо, укушу за нос...
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