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jjdub7
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September 16, 2014, 12:40:24 PM |
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$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.
Yes, a valuation of around $40mill appears cheap. If AM mines 10% of the 2.5mill coins available before the next halving (Nov 2016), that's 250,000 *$500 (today's btc price keeping with round numbers), = $125mill. Add roughly the same amount again for the following 4yrs @ 12.5btc block rate. That's $250mill over 6yrs, less costs of course. No negative feedback please  You forgot to add in the bonus of not having inflation - i.e. with QE pretending to pause for the moment and a US housing market that's about to learn how large the student debt bubble is...I'm not an inflation hawk, but surely these 1.5% annualized monthly figures are not telling of the global economic situation right now. |
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The Bitcoin software, network, and concept is called "Bitcoin" with a capitalized "B". Bitcoin currency units are called "bitcoins" with a lowercase "b" -- this is often abbreviated BTC.
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101111
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September 16, 2014, 01:11:03 PM |
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$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.
Yes, a valuation of around $40mill appears cheap. If AM mines 10% of the 2.5mill coins available before the next halving (Nov 2016), that's 250,000 *$500 (today's btc price keeping with round numbers), = $125mill. Add roughly the same amount again for the following 4yrs @ 12.5btc block rate. That's $250mill over 6yrs, less costs of course. No negative feedback please You forgot to add in the bonus of not having inflation - i.e. with QE pretending to pause for the moment and a US housing market that's about to learn how large the student debt bubble is...I'm not an inflation hawk, but surely these 1.5% annualized monthly figures are not telling of the global economic situation right now. Yes, that scenario could, perhaps, be tweaked a little around the edges.  |
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Luffy27
Newbie
 Offline
Activity: 2
Merit: 0
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September 16, 2014, 01:33:51 PM |
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[...]
Hashrate growth / Deployment speed doesn't look bad at all. I'm very excited for the next few days.
Payouts in the last 10 days don't necessarily mean the same amount is mined in the last 10 days. In theory, they could be mining since july and only now configure the payout options on btcguild for example. So you should be careful about statements about hashrate growth and deployment speed. That is definitely true. Especially the 8 payouts for 80btc on September 11 to the official mining address most likely weren't mined on the 11th itself. I do believe they were mined after this transaction though: https://blockchain.info/de/tx/fe5c9322bc331cab85b60704f07d318830e5a298618c5048c770633300902f65 (looks like a corresponding BTCGuild account was cleared and then configured for automated payout on September 11. This is of course very speculative). It probably really was/is too early to make any statements regarding deployment speed. We can assume hashrate is growing since 50 days though. [....]
Yet, I'd trust that btcguild has a pretty good idea of each user's hash power, and their fastest user is still 566620 at 2.4PH.
I suppose the payout address could be the same for multiple users. But in that case, why not use one single payout address, instead of splitting into 2 (or more)?
Well we know that User 67117 most likely still belongs to asicminer as well ( http://mineforeman.com/2013/02/15/67117-identity-reviled-its-asicminer-now-at-2-ths/). Aside from that I don't have any idea which Pool accounts might belong to asicminer, I'm just looking at the blockchain. Sorry, I don't quite get it. Please elaborate a bit if you find the time. My thoughts: - Official mining address forwards to https://blockchain.info/de/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh (which could already be controlled by someone different than friedcat, couldn't it? Could be some exchange.) - IF it is indeed controlled by friedcat, then for example all inputs in this transaction ( https://blockchain.info/de/tx/e63990fc8ff8d19479a93698ed7dfb1169221657431be51b485a58fb8941a6b1 ) should be controlled by friedcat as well. - 3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8 is never an input of a similar transaction I could find. So where do you get proof that it is controlled by asicminer? |
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xhomerx10
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3808
Merit: 7900
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September 16, 2014, 02:06:05 PM |
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divs tomorrow
We are complaining about newbies that post relevant, structured, funded information. However, when a Hero member posts two words without any further information, nobody complains :-) What does it mean to be a Hero member other than that person has the gift of gab? The quality of the post doesn't derive itself from the user status and keep in mind that these member accounts are bought, sold and traded. |
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hdbuck
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
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September 16, 2014, 02:20:35 PM |
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<- ambullish
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stompysteve
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September 16, 2014, 04:00:54 PM |
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divs tomorrow
We are complaining about newbies that post relevant, structured, funded information. However, when a Hero member posts two words without any further information, nobody complains :-) A source would be nice |
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jjdub7
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September 16, 2014, 04:02:39 PM
Last edit: September 16, 2014, 04:16:29 PM by jjdub7 |
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It's crossed paths with sales addresses over multiple addresses with amounts that are too large for individual sales transfers and too consistent/regular to be for paying electric expenses. The multisig address (3Mkw) has inputs from 1KYXrw4Ftkmomfs4iyVXUSqQeRX75Unoi8, and repeatedly puts outputs through to 19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV, which I identified as a nexus in my OP. Two things: with the amount of BTC we're considering, you don't fux around without at least one multisig lockbox. I think that 19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV and 13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL are likely two addresses in separate wallets with a very large number of change addresses attached to them, both of which contain signing keys for the lockbox. This is going a bit into wallet-cashflow strategies and how they might play into bolstering security, but I would say that according to the timestamps of the transactions across these 3 addresses, that the 19iVy and 13p5i keys are held on different machines, and that either 13p5i is hosted on an offline machine (output tx's are often numerous and clustered at the same timestamp, indicating that these transactions are created and signed offline and then broadcast in tandem with other operating tx's). However, again, this is just my theory from what I've been observing over the past two months. I'll reiterate once more - the key to being able to link the wallets was the transfer from the old mining address that occurred this morning. It pinned the least common denominator at that multisig address and related wallets. Additionally, it seems that friedcat likes to effectively shatter the inputs he receives into small outputs across many wallets, which I would guess he encrypts with a unique, computer-generated key schematic (if he's as witty as I think he's been with security). Just this morning, I traced transactions through over 500 addresses that saw 500 BTC from December 2013 split into ~0.1BTC addresses backtracking out from a few small inputs from the original mining address (withheld capital from last round's divs)...so it's possibly, if not probably, that only a moderate fraction of AM's holdings may be traceable via tractable methods at any given time. Example: look at the recent outputs from https://blockchain.info/address/1KryFUt9tXHvaoCYTNPbqpWPJKQ717YmL5 - nice, even pieces of 1 BTC to individual addresses that clump back up again over time. Precisely. You use the same analytical thinking as I do to cull through the ledger - keep looking. It might take a while, but I think you'll see what I'm talking about. From the 2nd link past the originating (AM mining) address, look through https://blockchain.info/address/17whCacdyEzKJ8ArDmkvjRg8WFvoDZbqPS. It's a multi-change transaction that filters back through to 19iVy and other associated addresses and again through to the multisig. Think about the perspective that many of these addresses may be in the same wallets. |
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mxmenga
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September 16, 2014, 04:53:53 PM |
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Hi all
i have 2 direct asicminer shares (no havelock) , not pay to may 2014
unfortunatly i have no more time follow all discussion (very long) , sorry for this.
the share is in stand by? restart pay in future?
I have to do the conversion request to someone?
thanks to reply
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Bonam
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September 16, 2014, 05:28:28 PM |
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Hi all
i have 2 direct asicminer shares (no havelock) , not pay to may 2014
unfortunatly i have no more time follow all discussion (very long) , sorry for this.
the share is in stand by? restart pay in future?
I have to do the conversion request to someone?
thanks to reply
There have been no dividends for several months. Your direct shares are still fine and you can keep them as is, no need to convert anything unless you want to sell them. Some people have theorized that dividends will restart soon, based on movements of funds between various addresses thought to belong to Asicminer. But there has been no recent word from friedcat regarding dividends. |
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runam0k
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
Touchdown
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September 16, 2014, 05:52:31 PM |
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<- ambullish
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FUR11
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
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September 16, 2014, 06:26:53 PM |
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This is beyond hilarious: Q: Can I dig a fish pond?
Ore mining machine is not directly in the ponds.
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sngwinner
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September 16, 2014, 06:47:58 PM |
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This is beyond hilarious: Q: Can I dig a fish pond?
Ore mining machine is not directly in the ponds.
I don't speak Chinese but I'm guessing this is "can I mine on a pool" "our mining machine is not directed to any pool" |
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bitsalame
Donator
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
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September 16, 2014, 07:03:17 PM |
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This is beyond hilarious: Q: Can I dig a fish pond?
Ore mining machine is not directly in the ponds.
I don't speak Chinese but I'm guessing this is "can I mine on a pool" "our mining machine is not directed to any pool" What's hilarious is that after google translating it, he is asking for donations for his "translating team". Smh |
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arnuschky
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September 16, 2014, 09:03:29 PM |
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This is beyond hilarious: Q: Can I dig a fish pond?
Ore mining machine is not directly in the ponds.
I don't speak Chinese but I'm guessing this is "can I mine on a pool" "our mining machine is not directed to any pool" What's hilarious is that after google translating it, he is asking for donations for his "translating team". Smh I think that this text came from a google translation FUR11 made, and not from the translation thread. At least, I couldn't find it in the thread and the level of English of the translation given there seems to be decent. Please don't FUD this project, it might be useful. Accordingly, I am considering to pledge a few bits. |
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gogxmagog
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1009
Ad maiora!
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September 16, 2014, 09:41:56 PM |
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I do not speak chinese, but I could relate this translation job to how I do it with french/english. I have some french but am not fluent, so when confronted with francophone text, I run it thriough google translator for a general idea of what is being said, then it is pretty obvious where the translation is weak or innacurate and I go back to those sections and look closer. A sort of double-pass that usually irons out the mistakes.
Anyhow, "mining in fishponds" is not acceptable translation, and we need someone more fluent to do this job. Find that individual, give proof that they know how to translate (by translating something) then I will be happy to contribute.
Good for you to initiate this project, I hope it makes an impression on FC that his shareholders have to do his PR work for him (and the PR guy he is PAYING to do what is not getting done)
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hdbuck
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
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September 16, 2014, 09:47:37 PM |
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I do not speak chinese, but I could relate this translation job to how I do it with french/english. I have some french but am not fluent, so when confronted with francophone text, I run it thriough google translator for a general idea of what is being said, then it is pretty obvious where the translation is weak or innacurate and I go back to those sections and look closer. A sort of double-pass that usually irons out the mistakes.
Anyhow, "mining in fishponds" is not acceptable translation, and we need someone more fluent to do this job. Find that individual, give proof that they know how to translate (by translating something) then I will be happy to contribute.
Good for you to initiate this project, I hope it makes an impression on FC that his shareholders have to do his PR work for him (and the PR guy he is PAYING to do what is not getting done)
PR is no IR tho.  |
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kingcrimson
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
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September 17, 2014, 12:48:03 AM |
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Lots of trades today. Some insider knowledge, but is the insider the buyer or seller. That is the question.
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dhenson
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
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September 17, 2014, 01:01:52 AM |
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Lots of trades today. Some insider knowledge, but is the insider the buyer or seller. That is the question.
I sold a few as a hedge against bad news. If the price drops, I'll pick up some more shares without having to re-fund Havelock. No insider info. |
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Chris_Sabian
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 896
Merit: 1001
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September 17, 2014, 01:34:17 AM |
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Lots of trades today. Some insider knowledge, but is the insider the buyer or seller. That is the question.
I sold a few as a hedge against bad news. If the price drops, I'll pick up some more shares without having to re-fund Havelock. No insider info. There was a big trade: 2014-09-16 17:17:46 208 ฿0.18300000 ฿38.0640 |
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