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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914548 times)
Smidge
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July 04, 2013, 03:43:31 PM
 #9341

Thank you!  already cross posted to Asciminer.info, will post to reddit in 6 min.
Thanks a lot aahzmundus. Its good to get a short, condensed version of what's happening because it's nearly impossible to extract it from this thread.

You want to see impossible, head over to fuckcombustion.com and pretend you're in the market for a vaporizer. 800+ page threads of stoners bickering about glass airpaths and the best method for ingesting "medicine"  Grin
lol wut

BTC: 19dB148YewttZRVwF7WF8ZuT7uqnnjibkC
LTC: LPBi1LPqs1MY1tQKQ4wGG6gjwrcszFek6s
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MrBubbles007
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July 04, 2013, 03:44:56 PM
 #9342

Thank you!  already cross posted to Asciminer.info, will post to reddit in 6 min.
Thanks a lot aahzmundus. Its good to get a short, condensed version of what's happening because it's nearly impossible to extract it from this thread.

You want to see impossible, head over to fuckcombustion.com and pretend you're in the market for a vaporizer. 800+ page threads of stoners bickering about glass airpaths and the best method for ingesting "medicine"  Grin
lol wut


Stoner logic>
Smidge
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July 04, 2013, 03:50:19 PM
 #9343

Thank you!  already cross posted to Asciminer.info, will post to reddit in 6 min.
Thanks a lot aahzmundus. Its good to get a short, condensed version of what's happening because it's nearly impossible to extract it from this thread.

You are welcome!  Yes, this is geared to the new investor, or the investor who has other things to do then refresh this thread every 5 min (as you see, I do not have better things to be doing!).

My big issue is going to be making sure new investors can find and get access to this information.  To that end, if you think I should post it somewhere, let me know.  If you would like to copy my updates to put on your site/blog, please do so! ... just do so in their entirety with credit to me or including a link to the full version (which includes my donation address!)
I just don't have the time to gather all this info. I think many (potential) investors are in the same situation, because there is no other centralized AM info source than this thread.

We should have a weekly newsletter mailed to us as PDF with all the info. I'd throw in a few Satoshis per week for that Wink

BTC: 19dB148YewttZRVwF7WF8ZuT7uqnnjibkC
LTC: LPBi1LPqs1MY1tQKQ4wGG6gjwrcszFek6s
aahzmundus
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July 04, 2013, 04:48:30 PM
 #9344

Thank you!  already cross posted to Asciminer.info, will post to reddit in 6 min.
Thanks a lot aahzmundus. Its good to get a short, condensed version of what's happening because it's nearly impossible to extract it from this thread.

You are welcome!  Yes, this is geared to the new investor, or the investor who has other things to do then refresh this thread every 5 min (as you see, I do not have better things to be doing!).

My big issue is going to be making sure new investors can find and get access to this information.  To that end, if you think I should post it somewhere, let me know.  If you would like to copy my updates to put on your site/blog, please do so! ... just do so in their entirety with credit to me or including a link to the full version (which includes my donation address!)
I just don't have the time to gather all this info. I think many (potential) investors are in the same situation, because there is no other centralized AM info source than this thread.

We should have a weekly newsletter mailed to us as PDF with all the info. I'd throw in a few Satoshis per week for that Wink

Good idea, I will work on that.

huhai0978
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July 04, 2013, 04:56:01 PM
 #9345

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.
aahzmundus
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July 04, 2013, 05:17:45 PM
 #9346

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.


Transaction Fees.

msm595
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July 04, 2013, 05:18:22 PM
 #9347

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.

You forget the ever-important hardware sales. ASICminer is, first and fore-most, a hardware company.

huhai0978
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July 04, 2013, 05:27:23 PM
 #9348

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.

You forget the ever-important hardware sales. ASICminer is, first and fore-most, a hardware company.
Hardware sales are included. So far less than 30% of mining income.
huhai0978
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July 04, 2013, 05:34:34 PM
 #9349

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.


Transaction Fees.
TX fee is negligible. Note, there is also cost of running a company,electricity, chip design, manufacture,etc.
TX fee encourages hoarding, punishes spending, which is bad.

vlaoou321
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July 04, 2013, 05:48:59 PM
 #9350

ASICMINER Weekly Write-up 07/03/2013

Dividend: BTC0.02297025
Previous 5wk Avg: BTC0.0269764
Previous All Time Avg: BTC0.01655679625

Hashrate estimate: 29.46TH/s
Network percentage: 15.3%

Share Price: BTC4.77
7day low: BTC3.266
7day High: BTC5.17

Friedcat Updates:
No posts from Friedcat save for 3 confirmations on the number of shares held by specific individuals.

Noteworthy Information:
  • Rockxie, the distributor of ASICMINER products in China "leaked" some new information - Presentation - Translation
  • Jutarul, a large holder of ASICMINER shares, held a public fixed price auction of 1,000 shares at BTC4.5 - Auction Post
  • Rival posted some thoughts on the position and future of ASICMINER - Post


(http://www.asicminercharts.com/)


(http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/)

For more information on ASICMINER please visit https://asicminer.info/

Please send any comments, corrections, additions or suggestions to Aahzmundus.

Was this information valuable?  Consider leaving a tip at: 1AahzKNU7NgNJyQPx7BJDLSiFRhgSA2P7c

THANK YOU!

Reputation https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198808.new#new
Tip: 1CtNCGTyhVkp6AzRwhTsqjkWgwCqk1vSjA
bigbeninlondon
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July 04, 2013, 06:09:38 PM
 #9351

Here's my thoughts.  If ASICminer retains X% of the mining network, then he will maintain X% of the reward.  Rival made some points about increasing your competitors so you can gain more market share.  But if the network increased by Y, then ASICminer needs to increase their hashing power by Y * X% to maintain X%.  This is just to stay even in the mining realm.

In fact, the only way ASICminer can increase their dividends is to sell hardware.  If they increase their network percentage, they risk pushing the value down.  They can't increase their dividends by mining, since they've capped themselves at the max % of network rewards they can make without causing a 51% scare.  Which makes me think they will be increasingly present in the mining hardware market.
AMuppInTime
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July 04, 2013, 06:17:29 PM
 #9352

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.


Transaction Fees.
TX fee is negligible. Note, there is also cost of running a company,electricity, chip design, manufacture,etc.
TX fee encourages hoarding, punishes spending, which is bad.



1) in your own #s, then at the current price of 4.7BTC AM is still undervalued if it will generate 6.4BTC.
2) If you apply that type of reasoning to real life companies then you would rarely invest - APPL was likely never going to survive the 90s because its stock was overpriced right?
3) Buying AM is believing friedcat & Co. can do more with BTCs than you can. They might open new services or create new income streams (meanwhile reducing income seem unlikely.)
4) Txs, Txs Txs. By the time all Bitcoins have been mined, the transaction fees will make it worthwhile for the miners (Satoshi's white paper)
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July 04, 2013, 06:22:56 PM
 #9353

4) Txs, Txs Txs. By the time all Bitcoins have been mined, the transaction fees will make it worthwhile for the miners (Satoshi's white paper)

I don't think you even need to look that far ahead. If Tx fees haven't reached BTC12.5 per block by the time the reward halves again, BTC is probably dead in the water.

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins. Beware scammers.
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tinus42
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July 04, 2013, 06:23:24 PM
 #9354


1) in your own #s, then at the current price of 4.7BTC AM is still undervalued if it will generate 6.4BTC.
2) If you apply that type of reasoning to real life companies then you would rarely invest - APPL was likely never going to survive the 90s because its stock was overpriced right?
3) Buying AM is believing friedcat & Co. can do more with BTCs than you can. They might open new services or create new income streams (meanwhile reducing income seem unlikely.)
4) Txs, Txs Txs. By the time all Bitcoins have been mined, the transaction fees will make it worthwhile for the miners (Satoshi's white paper)


True, AM shareholders also have a stake in Bitfountain, the mother company.

Quote
To be more detailed, ASICMINER has 200,000 shares in total. Each share gets
1/400,000 of the voting power of, and the regular dividends from, the Bitfountain
IC company registered in China.

http://asicminer.info/asicminer-official-update-august-09-2012-original-post/

AM shareholders even have extra privileges compared to regular Bitfountain shareholders:

Q: Why don't you use Bitfountain for your GLBSE ticker?
A: Because the ASICMINER shareholders (GLBSE investors) have an extra set of privileges upon Bitfountain shareholder (us).

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1088045#msg1088045
superduh
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July 04, 2013, 06:26:16 PM
 #9355

4) Txs, Txs Txs. By the time all Bitcoins have been mined, the transaction fees will make it worthwhile for the miners (Satoshi's white paper)

I don't think you even need to look that far ahead. If Tx fees haven't reached BTC12.5 per block by the time the reward halves again, BTC is probably dead in the water.

what are you talkingggg about?! that will actually be a really good thing. tx fees will be negligible PER transaction but if a block has 5000 transactions and packs a nice neglible fee per amount of bitcoins sold it PROVES that bitcoin works well. and keep in mind if bitcoins are worth a lot of money than even 5 bitcoins per block could be worth thousands

ok
Luckybit
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July 04, 2013, 06:37:32 PM
 #9356

4) Txs, Txs Txs. By the time all Bitcoins have been mined, the transaction fees will make it worthwhile for the miners (Satoshi's white paper)

I don't think you even need to look that far ahead. If Tx fees haven't reached BTC12.5 per block by the time the reward halves again, BTC is probably dead in the water.

what are you talkingggg about?! that will actually be a really good thing. tx fees will be negligible PER transaction but if a block has 5000 transactions and packs a nice neglible fee per amount of bitcoins sold it PROVES that bitcoin works well. and keep in mind if bitcoins are worth a lot of money than even 5 bitcoins per block could be worth thousands

Thousands might not mean as much when mining equipment costs tens of thousands.
TsuyokuNaritai
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July 04, 2013, 06:40:37 PM
 #9357

I wonder why Friedcat still hasn't announced to his loyal shareholders yet some things he announced days ago in Shanghai. Undecided

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July 04, 2013, 06:41:08 PM
 #9358

4) Txs, Txs Txs. By the time all Bitcoins have been mined, the transaction fees will make it worthwhile for the miners (Satoshi's white paper)

I don't think you even need to look that far ahead. If Tx fees haven't reached BTC12.5 per block by the time the reward halves again, BTC is probably dead in the water.

what are you talkingggg about?! that will actually be a really good thing. tx fees will be negligible PER transaction but if a block has 5000 transactions and packs a nice neglible fee per amount of bitcoins sold it PROVES that bitcoin works well. and keep in mind if bitcoins are worth a lot of money than even 5 bitcoins per block could be worth thousands

Thousands might not mean as much when mining equipment costs tens of thousands.

by that time, mining equipment will be much more efficient and cost less too and friedcat will have solar panels powering his operation

ok
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July 04, 2013, 06:48:11 PM
 #9359

I don't think you even need to look that far ahead. If Tx fees haven't reached BTC12.5 per block by the time the reward halves again, BTC is probably dead in the water.

what are you talkingggg about?! that will actually be a really good thing. tx fees will be negligible PER transaction but if a block has 5000 transactions and packs a nice neglible fee per amount of bitcoins sold it PROVES that bitcoin works well. and keep in mind if bitcoins are worth a lot of money than even 5 bitcoins per block could be worth thousands

I'm not sure you understood me correctly. I think it would be a good thing as well. Your bolded statement is exactly my reasoning behind my bolded statement.

Put another way, within the next four years you will see one of two scenarios: (1) Tx fees will be very, very important, or (2) Bitcoin is doomed to die the slow death of flowers in a vase.


No longer buying/selling Casascius coins. Beware scammers.
My OTC Web of Trust ratings / What's a PGP chain of custody?
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July 04, 2013, 06:52:25 PM
 #9360

The value of ASICMiner:

The value of ASICMiner depends on the total profit it can generate. Let's do some math.
Total bitcoins to be mined: 9,600k
ASICMiner takes 20% of total hash power. This will generate 1,920k.
Assuming hardware sale income is 30% of mining profit, so this part is 576k.
(1920k+576k)/400k=6.24B/share
This is the total profit one can expect for 1 share of ASICMiner in the next 20 years.

value of 1 share of ASICMiner = share price + dividend = 6.24

How will the 6.24B be distributed between share price and dividend? Well, this depends on the investors' emotion and their view of the risk of future income. The gap between 6.24 and share price is risk compensation.
IMO, the share price will fluctuate between 3.x and 4.x in the future. 5+ price is too risky.

My 2 Satoshi.


Transaction Fees.
TX fee is negligible. Note, there is also cost of running a company,electricity, chip design, manufacture,etc.
TX fee encourages hoarding, punishes spending, which is bad.



This computation is incorrect. The block reward is going to halve again in ~3.5 years.

Also, assuming that AM will have 20% of net mining income as profit, in perpetuity is unreasonable. They can get 20% profit easily right now, because the hardware and electricity cost is small compared to the value of the BTC mined; but as competition ramps up, margins will disappear. You can argue that next-gen chips will help alleviate that, but next-gen designs will not represent significant performance increases within a few years (i.e., designs will catch up to the state-of-the-art in semi processing technology).

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