ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[rudi]

I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months.  The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.

Which 3-4% increase "right now"?
See the last two plots here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
The daily growth rate has been steadily falling since November last year. It really looks like the explosion in network difficulty is seriously slowing down.
Not so long ago we were speculating the total network hashrate could quickly reach 1000PH/s. Now we're at 30PH/s and even 100PH/s seem far off.

Friedcat indicated in the "Chinese girl interview" that he would deploy/sell at least a few hundred PH/s.

So: What percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?
More than 50% does not seem unreasonable.

[Lloydie]

I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months.  The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.

Which 3-4% increase "right now"?
See the last two plots here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
The daily growth rate has been steadily falling since November last year. It really looks like the explosion in network difficulty is seriously slowing down.
Not so long ago we were speculating the total network hashrate could quickly reach 1000PH/s. Now we're at 30PH/s and even 100PH/s seem far off.

Friedcat indicated in the "Chinese girl interview" that he would deploy/sell at least a few hundred PH/s.

So: What percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?
More than 50% does not seem unreasonable.

Assuming selling chip ROI >= mining ROI (else FC should't be selling chips) then 50% of total hashrate = 650,000 coins = more than 1 Btc per share

[Lohoris]

You'll also recall that I always stated that pricing AM100 at 95% of AM1 was a poor method.

While you have proven to be a good manager and never stole anything so far AFAIK, which is something I praise, I fail to see how can you honestly repeat this nonsense.

AM100 pays 5% less than AM1, its price should be 5% less than AM1.
Simple math.
Denying math will get you nowhere.

AM1 other pro is that it can be converted to direct shares, while AM100 cannot.
AM100 only pro is that since it's a smaller denomination, you can buy it with leftover change. But holding more than 100 of them makes no sense in any situation.

[minerpumpkin]

I keep on wondering how many shares all our 'new' friends around here managed to acquire. The shares have been, and still are, rather cheap right now. BUT, the BTC price rose quite a bit 4 months ago and now it's a lot more expensive to buy shares at about 400$. This is even almost more expensive than when AM was over 4 BTC and BTC at about 100$. Of course, people buying at IPO prices only paid 1-2$.
Keep in mind, I don't want to do the old "let's price everything in US-$", I rather lay out, why it is more difficult acquiring AM shares in respect of the FIAT you have to invest.

[nycgoat]

You'll also recall that I always stated that pricing AM100 at 95% of AM1 was a poor method.

While you have proven to be a good manager and never stole anything so far AFAIK, which is something I praise, I fail to see how can you honestly repeat this nonsense.

AM100 pays 5% less than AM1, its price should be 5% less than AM1.
Simple math.
Denying math will get you nowhere.

AM1 other pro is that it can be converted to direct shares, while AM100 cannot.
AM100 only pro is that since it's a smaller denomination, you can buy it with leftover change. But holding more than 100 of them makes no sense in any situation.

AM100 makes more sense if you are looking to trade the shares IMO.  We have basically seen share price track the dividend since inception, the AM100 shares have offered a great trading vehicle.

[necro_nemesis]

IMHO AM100 is the better asset due to liquidity regardless of the trival 5%. There aren't preferred shares and there are no additional rights to the AM1 shares other than the privelage of sitting in on the board to get first hand knowledge should you be one of the select high percentage owners.

Liquidity is why stock are split. It's to allow movement of shares without drastically affecting the price of the asset.

Unless your thinking this is going to be the next Birkshire Hathaway ala Buffet to buy and hold for ever IMHO the benefit is trading in the fractional shares.

[elmwar]

There are only 3,205 (full share) units of AM100 while AM1 has 19,679.
This should be taken into account when determining liquidity.
You may not be able to buy or sell the same value of AM100 when you want.

[rudi]

So: Satoshi's real name is... Satoshi Nakamoto?
http://mag.newsweek.com/2014/03/14/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto.html

What's next? Newsweek revealing the identity of friedcat. It'll turn out his real name is... Friedcat.
Sorry for being slightly off topic.

[necro_nemesis]

The apportionment in terms of distribution of equity is higher in the full share but the units in trade remain 320500 to 19679. The volume in either is relatively low for a tech stock with a significant spread on the order book only to be filled with annoying bots further affecting the spread.

[elmwar]

I'm in that position right now.  I still have 3500+ shares of AM100 that I've been trying to convert at current market price.  Almost impossible.  But I'm in no hurry. 
Yesterday there was a 60btc buy order in for AM1.  Much smaller orders will have the same affect on AM100.

[explorer]

I'm in that position right now.  I still have 3500+ shares of AM100 that I've been trying to convert at current market price.  Almost impossible.  But I'm in no hurry. 
Yesterday there was a 60btc buy order in for AM1.  Much smaller orders will have the same affect on AM100.

Yeah, I managed to convert all of mine at a profit, but it wasn't quick. Every once in a while, AM100 will go a little above AM 1, with enough room to dump a multiple of 100. 

[necro_nemesis]

Appreciate the input. It appears that AM100 does about 10 X the volume of AM1 based on the $ of trades. AM1 indicates doing about ten times the $ value in trades over AM100 but AM100 is valued at 1/100th.

I'm in long and don't see the immediate need to transfer therefore either is good. End of my analysis.

Can we get rid of the bots?

@elmwar. It's easy. Set your sell price to the guy's you see on the bottom left of the order book. Poof. Problem solved

Edit: Let's hope for a rise requiring a 100 to 1 stock split leaving us with only one to trade.

[necro_nemesis]

Bots retreat from the battle like cowards and widen the gap. Now men.... well we ATTACK!

No room for cowards in this business. Turn off your bots and join the men.. and women of course.

[lophie]

Bots retreat from the battle like cowards and widen the gap. Now men.... well we ATTACK!

No room for cowards in this business. Turn off your bots and join the men.. and women of course.

so are we dealing with a pump, or actual demand?  Did Lophie give up and hit market buy? 
Time is getting short, I imagine sub 1btc buys are going to be history soon enough regardless.
Meanwhile, I'll just check the selling threshold   

I indeed did, Nothing serious I got what I wanted, now to dissappear again and focus on other investments.

[mxmenga]

hi all
you have received a payments for share AM1 ?
not me.. 

[jimmothy]

hi all
you have received a payments for share AM1 ?
not me.. 

On havelock? You sure you own a share?

I've never missed a dividend.

[mxmenga]

no on Havelock (i call AM1 for understanding), direct to friedcat, i received all Wednesday but no this week

[elmwar]

My direct share dividends didn't arrive until this morning.  About 7 hours ago.
Seems they're a little later than normal this week.
Hopefully you'll receive it soon.

[jimmothy]

no on Havelock (i call AM1 for understanding), direct to friedcat, i received all Wednesday but no this week

https://blockchain.info/zh-cn/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

Check the list.

I think divs are slow confirming because the tx fee is too small for the tx size.

[mxmenga]

no on Havelock (i call AM1 for understanding), direct to friedcat, i received all Wednesday but no this week

https://blockchain.info/zh-cn/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

Check the list.

I think divs are slow confirming because the tx fee is too small for the tx size.

thanks so much, im see in list, you have a reason probably tax fee very small
i attend