NOT TRUE!

I announced that we were going into a bear trap.

It has only gone on a little longer than I thought it would.  :/

Totally agree!  

On the other hand, amazingly, he is saying something that actually has some basis in reality.

Szabo should return the favor by calling him out as an idiot about Doge.

PS.  One of my proudest moments in twanker:

Am I the last to notice that Session (the messaging app) is using Monero's seed word scheme?

In other words, the seed words Session gives you?  You can use the same words and make a MyMonero wallet.  Interestingly this is a non standard Monero seed.  The new 14 word seeds in Feather are actually better in a sense as they can produce a 25 word equivalent.

But anyway...  Interesting.

Wanna talk to me?? : ***REMOVED AS I WILL NOT USE A PROJECT BASED ON A PREMINE SHITFORK***

This is an address I produced with my 13 word Session seed:
86JkeePguyfS3epmVqnjjd6STjcdod1GQFxqbEbNKy4vF9b82RPJFbxgWHQMEx4BMTZjXUJppbSWJBv sbgKd4ojwQoH28WB  (I'll never use that either... don't send it anything lol)

I am wondering if the devs plan to add monero?  It seems very unlikely they would use Monero's seed word code just cuz.  I am going to look at the repo and see if I can figure it out.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edit... ahh too bad.  Yeah they are using a cryptonote shitcoin that has a giant pre-mine as well as being POS.  OXEN.

Oh well...  Uninstalling this garbage from my phone.

Hopefully Molly ends up doing it right.  I like that it's a Signal compatible fork.

This particular moment has been extremely fascinating to me.  Because it's like a bunch of children have been waiting all year for Christmas to come, and on the day they ran into the room with the tree... and nothing.  No tree.  No presents... nothing.

This is a first for the class of '17.  All of them talking about cycles and making bullish prophecies.  But forgetting that as soon as the majority expect a thing in a market, the market typically will punish them because smarter folks are taking the other side of that trade.

The fact that this whole disconnect happens around the end of the year makes it all the more sweet/disgusting.  Because bitcoin does not give a flying fart about 2021, or 2022.  

Here is where we are currently... It will no longer be valid by the time most read this.

I wonder if SAYLOR ever wonders at what level his control of Bitcoin becomes a liability.

Say he bought ALL the Bitcoin.  Well it would be worthless because he will have taken all the ability to coordinate away from the system.  And obviously this will never happen, but at what point is his stake "too big"?

Personally I think there are no issues with the size of their stake currently. But is there a point at which there WOULD be issues?

(I assume this topic has been previously covered in this thread somewhere...)

Evolution...

Well look at that!  Seems we got a decent bounce.  But now the question is what next...  the volume and all the other signs are pointing to breaking down.  And being the last day of the year coming up you would think the bears and bulls have a little shenanigans planned for the next 24-48... SUCH FUN watching the walls!

I boggles my mind, frankly.  I have been telling some of them since 2011.  Much less now than then, lol.  But those folks just keep saying things like "You still havent sold that idiotic bitcoin?  Still going down with the ship, I guess?".

I have another buddy who only wants to invest in "value stocks". But enjoys vicariously living through me as a "Bitcoin investor".  I have tried to explain to him that trying to store value in stocks, is like keeping all your bills and records still on paper and in the mail.  But he never quite gets it.

So mostly now I just smile and nod when folks tell me that some day I will be sorry when the whole thing comes crashing down...

OK!  Knock knock dead on the line...  



Not looking great...

As much as I prefer my bullishness (only for reasons of greed lol), I think your theory holds more water.  And the volume is just not coming yet.  We could certainly be on a dead cat, and it could be 2023 before we start to see it turn around.

I ihopnesatly think we are seeing the bitcoin market transform from the super swingy land of the first decade into something different.  And there are most likely some big swings left... but I really thing everyone expecting the last 3 cycles to somehow repeat to be in general error.  SO MUCH really is different this time.

I did find that interview.  I am not going to rewind to where O'dell make a complete fool of himself (Somewhere in this area I typed that much into the chart, but not sure when lol).  But Tina makes a really good case for what could really be happening this cycle.  And he looks pretty good in retrospect.

https://youtu.be/rU6A7ao0xqA?t=7988

VERY true, and where would we be without them?

You know who I think mostly was too bullish?  I think it was mostly the class of ~2017.  And particularly the millennials and under.  I remember a podcast where Matt O'Dell was lambasting "Bitcoin TINA" for being too bearish while TINA was saying something like, I see us making 6 figures in early to mid 2022.  O'dell was still chanting things like "100k by conference day" and also embarrasingly drunk.

Bitcoinners who have been around the block a time or two realize that bitcoin never does what WE expect in the short term. LOL.  And someone like Tina might have gotten in around then too, but has seen enough markets to realize that things often take more time than we think...

I actually want to find that recording and isolate the bit where Tina still has a chance of being right.  

Nothin' against O'Dell.  He's a good guy, and I am impressed with his devotion to privacy.  Though I also think his ideas that regular bitcoinners will EVER be able to do the kinds of privacy preserving stuff he preaches even more sophomoric than "100k by conference day" even was.  That said, he is quietly being dragged (uncomfortably) into Monero along with the rest of the privacy focused maxis, which is delightful to see... (ok JJG go ahead)

One little topical hopium salve for today?



A previous fractal on a larger scale?

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time...  dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

Turducken.

Just touched that up a smidge:

You very frequently infer things that I do not mean.  I am not using a forum member's agreement with me as evidence of anything.  I am just saying that he basically understood what I was trying to hypothecate. 

AND on top of that, I am not even saying I think the discussed theory will happen.  In fact, I HOPE not.  I just see it as a future reality with a non-zero chance of happening...

I must be missing something... here is the 200/50MA pair on the daily:

---

You have made great calls in yonder-years.  Hopefully this is a good one too!

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

I am definitely NOT a T/A guy.  But I do have some unqualified thoughts.  

We do not have the sort of volume that is going to escape the noise of manipulation and whales splashing around.  That said one reason the golden/death cross is considered valuable is that it happens based on two fairly slow moving averages which will smooth out some of the noise/variance.

I am having some problems seeing what pair and scale where this is the case...  1d?  xmr/usd?

Sounds like a doable goal.  I believe you will get there one way or another.  And probably well before 90.  I mean 1.25MM x 3 is basically the same thing, right?  As long as bitcoin does not fail, that is an inevitability in my opinion.  Somewhere between your numbers, and that set...

Yup.. You totally get what I am talking about.  So, JJG if you see this, that should give you the info you need to know whether I am crazy or not.

Now, I love the NSA (inset what ever acronym) invented Bitcoin story.  Not because it would or would not be beneficial... I have not gone far enough down that rabbit hole to know... but just for the wackiness of the theory.  But I don't think the theory holds that much water just because it would take some SERIOUS foresight for the nation with prints the worlds reserve currency at will to actually have the next reserve currency cooked up and waiting in the wings.  I USED to think my country was great enough for that kind of move.  But I have grown up a lot since then.

Plus Bitcoin is one of the only things currently that truly threatens the whole CBDC/Social Credit score system, and it seems to people pulling the strings are more going for THAT world instead of the free, honest one.  I thin k the "shadow government" is most likely all up in the 3 letter agencies.  Only military intelligence seems to have a shred of dignity left.