Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[suchmoon]

"Don't Look Up" - look it up on Netflix, best movie since Idiocracy IMO. Made well enough so that anyone can think "nah, I'm not that stupid, this is about all those other people". Bitcoin gets honorable mention too.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Bro, what is life without bitcoin….

Wait... there IS LIFE without Bitcoin? Or life AFTER Bitcoin like in mindrust's case? 

Life is definitely worse without bitcoin.

But is it 25% worse without 25% bitcoin? 

[philipma1957]

they’re slowly learning that much of this is unnecessary because Bitcoin was designed in such a way that wallets can be frozen, and funds can be moved by court order. In other words, code is not law, law is law.

To imagine how this might work in the future, let’s imagine that Ulbricht’s Silk Road was still active today. If authorities could prove that wallets x, y, and z belonged to Silk Road, say by using blockchain analytics tools combined with traditional investigation techniques, they could secure court orders from judges that issue the orders to miners/nodes and have them simply freeze the funds. Later, a court could order the miners/nodes to move the funds from the Silk Road wallets to the wallets of the receiving agency.

Hahahaha, good luck with that. Secure court orders to miners in Iceland, or inner Mongolia. Sure.

Only if it was that simple.

Yes code is not the law but “open source” code is the law.

IOW, indeed.

Full article here https://coingeek.com/how-much-btc-has-us-government-seized-and-what-does-it-do-with-it/

Maybe part of the comedy is the article's use of the expression:  "simply freeze the funds" which hardly any government or court is going to be that dumb to even try it, are they?  It would be the kind of thing that would inspire scoff law and show the government's impotence in that direction.. so many of us would likely speculate that no government nor court would even want to play that kind of an "order the freeze" card.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Good point.

Until I saw your post, I was kind of wondering what that "crypto" thingie-ma-jiggie was and if it were to be somehow related to bitcoin.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Bro, what is life without bitcoin….

Wait... there IS LIFE without Bitcoin? Or life AFTER Bitcoin like in mindrust's case?  

Life is definitely worse without bitcoin.

It seems that a lot of us would be a pretty pathetic kind of a place without bitcoin.. Maybe we would end up turning into various kinds of political activists? or detached?  or in the woods like Ted Kaczynski?  I suppose that there could be ways to still feel that there is something that can be done about any investment that we make to be in a kind of peril.  Maybe we would hedge with real estate or gold, but surely the gold bugs are not doing good these days.  Would gold do better if bitcoin did not exist? Perhaps?

Another reason to feel lucky that we are not in a position in which we would have to choose some of those various inferior investments.

[edited out]

I can buy $50 a day pretty easy peasy by simply selling the alt coin I simply do not like or  mention. I mine a lot of it I am over invested in gpus. It is why I have been buying $50 a day since we dropped i from the 60k level I think it was on Nov 23.

I sold 17-18k at 61-67k and then went about buying it back using the unnamed shit coin sales.

Of course, we have discussed the idea of make up contributions that exist for retirement plans in the USA for anyone who is 50 years or older, so in the USA, retirement plans may well only allow for the contribution of around $20k per year, but if you are 50 years old or older, then you can add an additional $6,500 to your amount.

So maybe you are considering something similar, philip?  A kind of making up of the stacking of sats.

For sure there could be ways to make $50 per day or $350 per week to be sustainable, yet it is surely a bit more than most normies would be willing to contribute.. but surely, if you are able to sustain an extra $350 per week, then maybe you would want to just keep it as a current practice until you are either at fuck you status or getting close to fuck you status (whatever you determine that fuck you status to be, whether it is $2 million, $3.75 million as you had mentioned before, or some other amount that you believe might be suitable to your specifics).  

Of course, one of the reasons that some of us might seem to get either greedy or anxious in our own stacking of sats is because frequently there can be feelings of security to either arrive to fuck you status early or to end up exceeding it; however, I am also an advocate of NOT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good because if you are able to manage and evaluate your BTC holdings in a way that accounts for volatility, then you should end up in a position that you had ended up pulling the fuck you lever too early.

I know that my charts might not always be sufficiently flexible, but let's say that in your case you had more or less started $350 extra invested in BTC per week and we can presume a starting point of around $50k and an average BTC price appreciation of about 12% per year, so we can see from the below chart that you would end up at around 1.2 BTC extra after four years of sticking with such an ongoing BTC accumulation plan, and nearly 2 BTC if you were able to continue for 8 years.  Of course, I understand that you do not have 8 years, but you just want to put yourself in a better position in a relatively soon time of maybe even less than 5 years, if that were possible.  Of course, I recognize and appreciate that I am projecting out some pretty whimpy BTC appreciation values, but in any case there is going to be some difficulties in having some kind of fair estimation that ends up being accurate, even though we can get some ballpark ideas, and also we can even create our own charts and tweak the assumptions contained therein.


Start $                StartDate                 % gain /time          Time                         Price/BTC                #BTC
$0                        11/23/21                     6.00%                    182.6                   $50,000.00               0.00000000

DCA-$350/Wk                                                                            
   

Date                           $Value                        DCA-Add                    TotInvstd                Profits                 Price/BTC             #BTC
   5/24/22                    $9,646                           $9,646                       $9,100                   6.00%               $53,000                 0.18200000
   11/23/22                    $19,871                           $9,646                       $18,200            9.18%               $56,180                 0.35369811
   5/24/23                    $30,709                           $9,646                       $27,300            12.49%               $59,551                 0.51567747
   11/23/23                    $42,198                           $9,646                       $36,400            15.93%               $63,124                 0.66848817
   5/24/24                    $54,375                           $9,646                       $45,500            19.51%               $66,911                 0.81264922
   11/22/24                    $67,284                           $9,646                       $54,600            23.23%               $70,926                 0.94865021
   5/24/25                    $80,967                           $9,646                       $63,700            27.11%               $75,182                 1.07695303
   11/22/25                    $95,471                           $9,646                       $72,800            31.14%               $79,692                 1.19799342
   5/24/26                    $110,845                           $9,646                       $81,900            35.34%               $84,474                 1.31218247
   11/23/26                    $127,142                           $9,646                       $91,000            39.72%               $89,542                 1.41990799
   
5/24/27                    $144,416                           $9,646                       $100,100            44.27%               $94,915                 1.52153584


   11/23/27                    $162,727                           $9,646                       $109,200            49.02%               $100,610                 1.61741117
   5/23/28                    $182,137                           $9,646                       $118,300            53.96%               $106,646                 1.70785960
   11/22/28                    $202,711                           $9,646                       $127,400            59.11%               $113,045                 1.79318830
   5/24/29                    $224,520                           $9,646                       $136,500            64.48%               $119,828                 1.87368707
   11/22/29                    $247,637                           $9,646                       $145,600            70.08%               $127,018                 1.94962932

yeah if I sell my share of  the business in 27

that extra 1.52 btc
along with the coin I earn and hodl
and the coin I get from selling the business
and the GOV pensions
and the wifes 401k

would mean f you status at the 'young' age of 70 

[cAPSLOCK]

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time...  dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

[philipma1957]

i just figure im fucked no matter what. so meh.

Oh of course: No one gets out of this game alive :-) But as a thought experiment I'm finding it to be fun to figure out how you can have maximum in-your-pocket funds while paying a minimum in taxes legally and completely by all the rules.

Maybe this is how rich people think....

of course many rich peopel think this way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tertius993]

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time...  dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

Bit in bold - I definitely agree with this.  I have posted about it a number of times, e.g. here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0 - if you consider that the vast majority of he total supply has already been mined (90% right now) then the quantity of bitcoin that will be influenced by each halving becomes vanishingly small: this epoch started with 88% already mined and only ~6% will be mined in the epoch, i.e. before the next halving in c. 2024.  The next halving the numbers are 94% and 3%.

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch, orange at the bottom is the 50% issued from Genesis to the first halving, green at the top is what will be issued in the next epoch, etc.. Everything below the blue band is already mined, and we are maybe a third into the blue band:



 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

Let's keep the CoVID shit-posts in other threads and off the WO please.
(edit: Bob's thread is apparently for hat-only, I am sure there are other threads on this forum where the merits can be debated properly)

To be fair, anyone wanting to post about COVID19 related matters in this thread, is welcome to be redirected to my holding thread in Off-Topic.

The "No Hat? Fuck Off" is one layer of protection to reduce noise.

As long as the post is not completely retarded, I'll consider it on its own merits, if made in good faith.

I want to help keep this thread clean. Recognize this requires a degree of flexibility on my part, with regard to moderating COVID19 material.

Memes and low-effort posts are deleted on-sight from non-hatters.

Bring the science, or fuck off.

[cAPSLOCK]

One little topical hopium salve for today?



A previous fractal on a larger scale?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

Not everybody was too bullish.

Not our favorite characters:

The last day or so is just noise. The calamitous downtrend remains perfectly intact.

Agree the men of the wall will be crying by Christmas. Sub $10,000 inkoming!!!!!!!

[tertius993]

I had another go at visualising the emission schedule, 97% will be mined in the first 20 years, the remaining 3% will take over 100 years ...

[cAPSLOCK]

Not everybody was too bullish.

Not our favorite characters:

VERY true, and where would we be without them?

You know who I think mostly was too bullish?  I think it was mostly the class of ~2017.  And particularly the millennials and under.  I remember a podcast where Matt O'Dell was lambasting "Bitcoin TINA" for being too bearish while TINA was saying something like, I see us making 6 figures in early to mid 2022.  O'dell was still chanting things like "100k by conference day" and also embarrasingly drunk.

Bitcoinners who have been around the block a time or two realize that bitcoin never does what WE expect in the short term. LOL.  And someone like Tina might have gotten in around then too, but has seen enough markets to realize that things often take more time than we think...

I actually want to find that recording and isolate the bit where Tina still has a chance of being right.  

Nothin' against O'Dell.  He's a good guy, and I am impressed with his devotion to privacy.  Though I also think his ideas that regular bitcoinners will EVER be able to do the kinds of privacy preserving stuff he preaches even more sophomoric than "100k by conference day" even was.  That said, he is quietly being dragged (uncomfortably) into Monero along with the rest of the privacy focused maxis, which is delightful to see... (ok JJG go ahead)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

One little topical hopium salve for today?

Also from another macro-angle looks like a re-test of support. Price needs to reclaim $48K soon though. Closing back above the 200 Day MA @ $47,774 would be a good start.



Otherwise with price getting rejected by $48K as is currently the case it opens the door for $46K and lower. At least the end of the week is still to play for.
Am losing my mid-term bullish bias now that $49K support didn't hold and high volume selling has returned to the market though.
Long-term trend remains up but the short-term recovery was nothing more than a dead cat bounce for now.

[cAPSLOCK]

One little topical hopium salve for today?

Also from another macro-angle looks like a re-test of support. Price needs to reclaim $48K soon though. Closing back above the 200 Day MA @ $47,774 would be a good start.



Otherwise with price getting rejected by $48K as is currently the case it opens the door for $46K and lower. At least the end of the week is still to play for.
Am losing my mid-term bullish bias now that $49K support didn't hold and high volume selling has returned to the market though.
Long-term trend remains up but the short-term recovery was nothing more than a dead cat bounce for now.

As much as I prefer my bullishness (only for reasons of greed lol), I think your theory holds more water.  And the volume is just not coming yet.  We could certainly be on a dead cat, and it could be 2023 before we start to see it turn around.

I ihopnesatly think we are seeing the bitcoin market transform from the super swingy land of the first decade into something different.  And there are most likely some big swings left... but I really thing everyone expecting the last 3 cycles to somehow repeat to be in general error.  SO MUCH really is different this time.

I did find that interview.  I am not going to rewind to where O'dell make a complete fool of himself (Somewhere in this area I typed that much into the chart, but not sure when lol).  But Tina makes a really good case for what could really be happening this cycle.  And he looks pretty good in retrospect.

https://youtu.be/rU6A7ao0xqA?t=7988

[AlcoHoDL]

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time... dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.

Bit in bold - I definitely agree with this.  I have posted about it a number of times, e.g. here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0 - if you consider that the vast majority of he total supply has already been mined (90% right now) then the quantity of bitcoin that will be influenced by each halving becomes vanishingly small: this epoch started with 88% already mined and only ~6% will be mined in the epoch, i.e. before the next halving in c. 2024.  The next halving the numbers are 94% and 3%.

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch, orange at the bottom is the 50% issued from Genesis to the first halving, green at the top is what will be issued in the next epoch, etc.. Everything below the blue band is already mined, and we are maybe a third into the blue band:

While your Bitcoin Emission Schedule visualization is a great idea in principle, your execution can be misleading in terms of amount of coins added in each 4-year Halving period, by extending the corresponding regions past their respective Halving periods.

I have modified your visualization, by making the colored region areas proportional to the coins mined in the corresponding Halving periods, resulting in the visualization shown below. The "diminishing returns over time" concept is still there (obviously), but it is now more accurately depicted, and hence not as dramatic as yours.

[serveria.com]

Some HODLing motivation quotes from our old friend: