Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

the difference is that i don't need to sell (he was over-invested) and my cost has been below ZERO for a while now.

No prob just pointing that out as food for thought.

I never trust TA gurus, they only have to screw you once to make you a no-coiner.

yep, EVERYBODY (ta, fundamental, money flow, on-chain) were wrong in 2021.

Bullshit.

I have been hearing that nonsense story.

Yeah, sure some people were wrong who overly bet on a narrow kind of scenario happening, but I would imagine that the vast majority of long term BTC HODLers give few shits about whether there  is going to be a peak in late 2021, or early 2022 or late 2022 or even some time later than that.

So, yeah you can put out the nonsense about how everyone was wrong because so much you want the BTC price to go down further and get some kind of pleasure out of that, and whether the BTC price goes down or not is still to be seen.  I am not considering the opera over until the fat lady sings, and surely there seems to be somewhere in the ballpark of 1-9 months still remaining to see how those months play out.  Are you inclined to figure out some kind of a friendly bet upon your downity or sideways proclamations, Biodom?  We might be able to formulate something if you are so cock sure about the matter.. which I doubt that you have much confidence beyond just throwing out some whining points in regards to how disappointed you are in BTC's 2021 performance.. blah blah blah.

[1714952241]

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[1714952241]

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[1714952241]

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[Biodom]

@jjg..my opinions are not for trading as I almost never trade bitcoin.
It's just boundaries (>20K, <200K) that are useful to me.
@phil has a good point about $35K-70K band instead.

BTW, IF "real" market top was actually in April, then $29K in June could have been THE cycle bottom, but if the top was in November, then the bottom might be VERY low, even if it would be 70% down (from 70K it is 21K) instead of >80%, which is more typical.

Ben Cowen keeps talking about extending cycle, but there is NO solid evidence for that, imho.
https://youtu.be/Rfkb_ArjMXw?t=647

Careful, mindrust talked like this before he lost his mind.

the difference is that i don't need to sell (he was over-invested) and my cost has been below ZERO for a while now.

No prob just pointing that out as food for thought.

I never trust TA gurus, they only have to screw you once to make you a no-coiner.

yep, EVERYBODY (ta, fundamental, money flow, on-chain) were wrong in 2021.

I've seen the best predictions from this thread and they tend to be soma from the gut. The last thing I trust s some rando that popped up on a social engineering site.

Our subconscious can quantify many variables that TA doesn't even know exists.

TA is nothing other than trying to find history repeating itself and this is a fluid market with new entries  that make it increasingly less likely for patterns to repeat on a schedule.

I agree, but you have to be choosy.
If there was someone who predicted that we would actually peak at 69, let's see the link.
Not post factum, of course.

However, in general, you are right-I have seen very keen analysis here.

[Biodom]

@jjg-what 1-9 mo are you talking about?
We are ALREADY past the Oct-Dec 2021 peak prediction (actually, it should have been even earlier in Aug-Sept if timing would have been the same).
The "long" cycle exists only in Ben C. imagination.
There is NO mechanism for it.
The long cycle is not the bitcoin halving cycle, clearly.
Maybe it is the usage trend, but then it is NOT a cycle.
We could have a usage trend at some point going into a hockey stick, but it might take years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg-what 1-9 mo are you talking about?

The upcoming 1-9 months into the future.

We are ALREADY past the Oct-Dec 2021 peak prediction (actually, it should have been even earlier in Aug-Sept if timing would have been the same).

Who gives any ratt's asses, except for people like you trying to put king daddy into a box.

King daddy no does not want to go into any kind of box.  so fuck off with your trying to assert that there has to be a kind of exact schedule otherwise the whole matter of UPpity and the blow off top and the cylce fails.

The "long" cycle exists only in Ben C. imagination.
There is NO mechanism for it.

I have already outlined an explanation for you a couple of times.  We had a 56% correction and we had a 39% correction so far.  That allows some buying pressure to catch up and coiling and all of that lovey dovey stuff.

Yeah, if the BTC price goes too far down then it is not able to come back up, but we have not gone down too far yet, so in other words, we still be in a bull market.  Until we are not.  That be called mechanism.

The long cycle is not the bitcoin halving cycle, clearly.

Does it matter?

Do you understand that one of the underlying concepts of PlanB's stock to flow model is that he was projecting an average of $100k that would come within the four year period after our May 2020 halvening and before the subsequent havening that will end up in March or April of 2024.  Anyhow, we are not even half way through the halvening period in which he expects the $100k average for the period.  Let's say that he is wrong, and the average ends up ONLY being $80k for the period, or maybe a scenario like you are asserting plays out and it ends up ONLY being $40k for the whole 4-year period.   Another more bullish scenario could end up causing the average to fall above $100k for the 4-year period, and so part of the point is that there is still more than 2 years left in the halvening period, so there remain quite a few possible scenarios that could end up playing out, even though you remain so inclined to have a wet dream in which down rather than UP happensw.. but you seem a wee bit premature in your throwing those scenarios out there as if they were more likely than the UPpity scenarios that may well still be in the cards, especially since we have not yet fallen out of our bull market.. the last time I checked.

Maybe it is the usage trend, but then it is NOT a cycle.

I know that you just like to make shit up, and act as if you do not understand anything except for what you want to understand when you are spinning your various random and largely detached from reality (of facts and logic) BTC price theories.

We could have a usage trend at some point going into a hockey stick, but it might take years.

yes, it might take years to get some kind of a hockey stick or exponential rise or a blow off top for this cycle, and it might not.  It might play out in the next 1-9 months... and it might not.

[aysg76]

Maybe a little patience would take us back to the high levels and till then we can do one thing which is holding for long.Be pateint and you will see it bouncing back again to new levels.

The Power of HODL:

"The rome was not built in one day but maybe in 1 and half day " a dialogue from spectre movie

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tertius993]

I've been playing around with a good way to visualise this, and this is the best I have come up with so far, each band shows the percentage of the total supply issued in each epoch
 

The most powerful way to think is how much time to generate a bitcoin:
Genesis was 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes, or 1 bitcoin every 12 seconds.
Now we are at 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes, or 1 bitcoin every 1 minute and 36 seconds.
...
In epoch 18 it will be 1 bitcoin every 18 days.

Here is the full diagram:




Something I discussed here:
Equivalent Network Time

That is certainly a great perspective, I like it very much.  However, I think it doesn’t capture the number of coins generated in each epoch …which was an important part of what I was trying to show with my crappy graphs … e.g. 50% of ALL coins were mined in the first epoch.

(I’m still amazed by that stat!)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://www.benzinga.com/amp/content/24802715


Billionaire Alibaba Co-Founder Joe Tsai Tweets 'I Like Crypto', CEO Of World's Largest Crypto Exchange Responds

chairman and co-founder Joe Tsai is showing appreciation for the cryptocurrency industry.

What Happened: “I like crypto,” Tsai tweeted on Monday night without any context or earlier tweets the would provide context to the statement. Changpeng Zhao — the CEO of the world's top cryptocurrency exchange Binance — quickly answered the tweet with a simple statement "I like Joe."



jjg bait

[Arriemoller]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter

... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet

... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID

... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery

...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.

EVERYBODY? Really?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter

... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet

... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID

... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery

...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.

EVERYBODY? Really?

Agreed. I never agreed to any of that shit taking any WO debate elsewhere.
I get people get tired with the pro or anti vaccination debate (and sure there is some anti vax horseshit out here however 4 - 5 fucking shots in a year, come on, that is not reasonable!) but Covid itself is fucking ingrained in society at the moment, I don't consider that off topic at all. It is certainly also one of the reasons why we saw ridiculous inflation and a mega BTC pump over the last 20 months.

I also feel like there is a constant elitist attitude with the mask wearing / vaccination.
I've done both but still get the idea that this is not enough and that there is some type of elitist crowd (small minority here) who think they have the audacity to shut down any negative mention about masks and/or vaccination to the point you have to agree with it and actually like it and enjoy it or you are not a good person somehow.

To those I would say: Fuck you very much and have a happy new year.

Ultimately I think Covid itself is going to take care of it disappearing / possibly already has done that: mutating into a less deadly strain and that's that.
I can believe the vaccination helped many people from dying, certainly those with a compromised immune system.

Were all the lockdowns / mask wearing / vaccinating healthy people necessary? I have my doubts.
I can take part in all that as that is what is required in many places by law but still have those doubts.

Not being able to air those views on a forum or even a thread that is highly suspicious of government motives and the fiat system to me seems stupid. If there is genuine exciting BTC news / movement I am not going to be the one posting off topic stuff here endlessly but when BTC constantly dances around 47K and Covid is shutting down part of society I should go to another thread? Really?

So be it.

[dragonvslinux]

OK!  Knock knock dead on the line... 



Not looking great...

Last chance for a bounce before lower lows? Not as convincing as when previously at $46K levels. This is either the re-test of support, or the rolling over stage.

Otherwise with price getting rejected by $48K as is currently the case it opens the door for $46K and lower.

Back above $48K (volume point of control & 50 Week MA) and my mid-term bullish bias returns. The year ends tomorrow.

Likewise if the year closes below $48K support, price might be in trouble.

Should probably have extended this to end of week, but without price bouncing back by tomorrow, sounds about right now.

[Arriemoller]

How to open a door - Finnish instructional video from 1979

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wof0xPUmW38

[BitcoinBunny]

How to open a door - Finnish instructional video from 1979

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wof0xPUmW38

How he actually goes through the door in the end seems really weird or is it just me?
I've never entered a door with the smallest gap possible and turned around in one movement like that, as far as I remember.

Maybe I've been doing it wrong? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

How to open a door - Finnish instructional video from 1979

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wof0xPUmW38

How he actually goes through the door in the end seems really weird or is it just me?
I've never entered a door with the smallest gap possible and turned around in one movement like that, as far as I remember.

Maybe I've been doing it wrong?  

That's why videos like this one are so important, like it says in the video, most people do it wrong.
After finding this video I have significantly improved my door opening skills, I will never be as good as that man though, he is obviously a professional.

Love the comments.

[machasm]

How to open a door - Finnish instructional video from 1979

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wof0xPUmW38

How he actually goes through the door in the end seems really weird or is it just me?
I've never entered a door with the smallest gap possible and turned around in one movement like that, as far as I remember.

Maybe I've been doing it wrong?  

That's why videos like this one are so important, like it says in the video, most people do it wrong.
After finding this video I have significantly improved my door opening skills, I will never be as good as that man though, he is obviously a professional.

Love the comments.

Does he have one showing how to open a door for others?
I seam to be slamming them behind me.
Clearly very skilled and I would like to impress on my other half by becoming more proficient myself. /s

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation