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1161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 06:52:25 PM
another bloody Monday morning wall report

#dyor

Bouncing off of 200ma support again..have to say things are not looking great for the bulls out there right now as steep holiday discounts reappear across markets today
D


The weekly chart is not much better and appears to be devolving into a chaotic mess as we approach 2022  No retest of teken sen short term resistance, kijun sen mid term support broken,  A weak span B(the bottom side of this green cloud we are hovering over, does not have much definition, meaning active price discovery is probably still at play in this range). Buy the dip? Not sure this is the time or place tbh. Reef all sails and heave to! 
W

#stronghands


Nice to have you back posting, even if it's about bloodiness.
1162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 06:50:07 PM
It seems that some entity is stubbornly selling despite the lack of bitcoin inflows to the spot exchanges.

A small nit: whales selling into their own walls is not actually selling.

Although I agree or at least resonate with most of your paranoid theories ( Wink ), this one never makes that much sense to me.  Why would the "whales" spend the money to do this.  Unless, of course, the whales are actually the exchanges themselves?

I am not questioning the validity of your theory.  I am saying I honestly do not understand it.  Can you elucidate?
1163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 06:44:45 PM
My moms side of the family were country folk.  I used to visit my grandfather in rural NC and we would take a couple cane poles for fishing.  We fished in a creek on his property, but that was on the edge of his neighbors property.  My grandfather, a man of few words pointed out a post with a purple top and asked me if I knew what it meant.  Nope, I said.  And he told me, it's a friendly way to warn people "if you go on that land they'll shoot ya" (the way my grandfather said it was more like "shoochee" lol).

Interesting. I had not heard of that one (nor ever seen any).

It's odd but sensible.  One can post signs, but that is messy and liable to loss and damage while painting the top of a fence post purple is cheap and will last years if not decades.  It's only drawback is you better know what it means.
1164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 06:42:14 PM
Who was that that kept spamming to earn interest on that Celsius network?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/r7py19/celsius_may_have_lost_900_btc_50_million_to_the/

Thanks for that. Interesting.

BTW, is it just me, or is reddit really so messed up and poorly designed for browsing posts? I just hate it every time I visit. I find it hard to navigate...

It's threaded, which sounds like a good idea but has its drawbacks. I much prefered the old usenet model where you would typically read threads in chronological order but you could also thread them if you wanted.


My brother from a different mother.

The threaded view is too chaotic for my tastes.  A good old flat forum style with the sensible use of quotes like this one, is my fav.
1165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 01:22:35 PM

and let the purple posts every 100 ft serve as the traditional Texas warning to officially "Fuck around and find out"

I find that you are doing purple fence posts to be so delightfully appropriate.  Your color... and one the locals most likely know to respect.  I guess the tradition goes back.

My moms side of the family were country folk.  I used to visit my grandfather in rural NC and we would take a couple cane poles for fishing.  We fished in a creek on his property, but that was on the edge of his neighbors property.  My grandfather, a man of few words pointed out a post with a purple top and asked me if I knew what it meant.  Nope, I said.  And he told me, it's a friendly way to warn people "if you go on that land they'll shoot ya" (the way my grandfather said it was more like "shoochee" lol).
1166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 12:07:24 AM
Such rare.  Much balance.  Wow!


* BobLawblaw weeps openly



Have you tried rebalance.py?

It's the best, best, best.  I don't balance everything, but it will work better than anything else on what I do balance.  Has lots of safeguards built in so you do not conceptually spend more than you can make back in fees, and will try as many channels as possible 'till it finds one.  And if you want to over-ride it's various safeties you can.

Slight learning curve, mainly because it is so powerful and full featured.

https://github.com/C-Otto/rebalance-lnd
1167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 10:22:01 PM
Such rare.  Much balance.  Wow!

1168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 07:06:19 PM
I'll correct you there, he was completely wrong in 2019. He only managed to regain face in 2020 when he was still waiting for sub $5K while everyone laughed at him, and then it eventually happened.
You could generally argue that he got lucky with that, but whether luck or skill he was right after all. Selling at $17.5K and buying at $4.5K is some good accumulation overall I'd say.

Assuming you are talking about Tone.

Can't like the guy.

1.  He's constantly virtue signalling as a "toxic maximalist" for social media clout.  Annoying.
2.  What the heck is that crazy numerology he at least used to use?  Maybe it's a legit market analysis but it looks more like Oijia board use to me. some 1-9 thing.
3.  He wrong 50% of the time like a coinflip, IMO.  I can't remember the name of the "system" that he and some guy (who passed away RIP) will shilling back ~2018 where they were CONSTANTLY saying we would be dumping to sub 1k prices.  It was like the "supersystem" or something. He really hung his hat on that failed prediction.

I think old Vanga has more credibility than Tone as far as your random Russian market analyst goes.

I mean... i make predictions, and am probably less accurate than him.  But I do not present myself as a professional, or charge for my tea leaves.

Oh, and *YOU* have him beat 10 ways for quality TA woek!

Anyway... good luck to him, I suppose...
1169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 05:49:45 PM
I really like these sorts of volume candles!

1170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 04:15:47 PM
Well goody!  The corn has pushed up over my arbitrarily drawn meaningless channel top line!

This can only be good!

1171  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 12, 2021, 04:24:41 AM
When I started following the project 2 years later, I was also interested in it, just like ZEC. Both are mined and both are aimed at anonymity. 

Everyone and his brother can track and trace ZEC transactions now:
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2020/06/30/elliptic-follows-chainalysis-in-adding-zcash-to-monitoring-platform/


Quote
“We are helping regulated businesses look at transactions on the blockchain and completely support people’s rights to financial privacy,” said Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s chief scientist. “If funds are seen to come from a shielded address, that might then trigger some additional compliance processes.”


Quote
“One of the core differences between us and Chainalysis is that they are really focused on law enforcement and so they will have customers who are asking them to de-anonymize the likes of Monero,” said Robinson. “We provide transaction screening tools for exchanges and don’t plan to offer our functionality on something like Monero where everything is private by default.

Wow. Wow.  Wow.

ZCash just lost the single whisp of an idea of a shadow of a reasonable chance for a reason to exist at all.

At this point there are EXACTLY ZERO reasons for it to exist (which was already 99.9% true frankly) aside from paying for "Zooko"'s groceries.  I can only hope that he gets changed with securities fraud someday, as he should.

Quote
We are helping regulated businesses look at transactions on the blockchain and completely support people’s rights to financial privacy
said Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s chief scientist.

LOL.

1172  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 12, 2021, 04:14:53 AM
I'm so disappointed. This has been one of my favorite coins for years, and everytime I buy it because it seems relatively low compared to the rest of the market.

I mean it makes sense, it's anonymous and known for its use on the darknet, so Legitimate businesses and many exchanges want nothing to do with it. But it's just such a good coin, it's like what Bitcoin tried to be. Perfect for sending money/value without anyone knowing, not the crazy halvenings and fees are doable. Is there some kind of segwit for monero by the way? Or would that ruin privacy?

I figure you MIGHT be asking about a way to implement HTLC type of layer two?  There are no projects that I know of outside of the vapor phase.

That said, Monero DOES take a different approach to the block size problem.  So it may evolve differently when it comes to scaling.
1173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 03:21:19 AM
Can we have our little playground?
I hope so.

I would love to hear a nice and NEW story about what we can do with bitcoin.

I still cannot really comprehend what that military dude who @MA linked to was talking about.
Few examples below.
He said something like: "bitcoin is human antlers"-to simplify meaning those with more bitcoin would "dominate" those without.
Interesting, but a bit of an outlier thought.
Also compares btc/watts with current situation of using lives to protect property.
The former is superior as per his position.
Another: "Bitcoin is a defensive network", "It is defending people who decided to use this network to hold their property (in btc)".
Using watts instead of lives to protect property.
Quite interesting.

He basically makes the point that Bitcoin is revolutionary as it move the battle that all animals engage in into the pure form of math and energy and away from kinetic/physical violence.  It's pretty deep, and correct, in my opinion.

The idea is the things at the top of his drawing have to be defended with flesh and blood, while the lower half is a new sort of "property" that we can COORDINATE to defend with power and consensus. 

I OFTEN think about how this fourm and particularly this thread (perhaps?) will be studied by future generations who find it interesting to see what we were thinking before the rest of the world even had a CLUE about the change Bitcoin brought.

For them, it's hindsight.  For us it's foresight, and even we "early adopters" do not really understand how big the paradigm shift Bitcoin is bringing will be.  They will be fascinated when they see us discovering certain aspects of what the Bitcoin network is destined to become as we went along, and also some of the mistakes we made along the way.

1174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 03:16:31 AM
Heck yeah.

Undoubtedly WO is the most active thread in the Bitcointalk forum.
Here is the Monthly Overview Comparison of the WO Thread.


It reminds me of when I used to do this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55315921#msg55315921


I assume You must be busy nowadays. I think I can continue your unfinished work if you don't mind.

I want to say something about WO Thread. I am active here for the last 40+ days. To be honest I have never been welcomed here but some of you guys helped me a lot and teach me many things.

IDK if you guys will be surprised or not, I thought you were all guys from the same country, same city and you all know each other. That's why you guys talking to each other only. I was posting 10+ posts a day for the first few days and I remember I said "Guys, am I invisible today?" Because I was posting here and nobody cares. No one ever replies to me. After that, JJG Quotes me and he said Yeah, You are annoying. I did argue with him but that makes no sense cause that was true that I am annoying (IDK if I am still annoying). So I stepped down slowly and post less here. Yesterday, A member knocked on me and ask how can I make friends on WO thread? Are they all from the same city and they know each other? (What I was thinking before). I said nope, just be active and make some good posts. Do you guys know why he asked me that? He posted a few times and he didn't get any replies from anyone. I don't think the WO thread is for Legendaries and Heroes. But look at the WO Thread. There are only Legendaries and Heroes. No one pays attention to low-ranked members until he is recognized.

Anyways, I am sorry if I hurt you guys. Wink

What you are describing is human nature.  You are new here... I too am newer here than many others.  I have been on this FORUM for over 10 years, but came initially as a poker player, and posted primarily on the thread for the 'Seals with Clubs" poker site (now defunct, replaced by it's successor "Swcpoker" which I really do not play at much anymore since they decided to accept BCASH rather than simply implement lightning. Bad move).

But many of the people here are like a virtual family.  Complete with the annoying loud uncle, the brother in law with the shady business idea, the one with a drug habit, and the one that would be better off locked in the loony bin.

And the people here have earned the ability to be recognized by the others.  Is it worth the time and trouble?  You tell me.  I think so, and I hope to meet some of these folks in person some day.

I know you have even received some merits here.  I have sent a few, and I am sure others have as well.

It's up to you naim.  Stay and earn a place among the Watchers of the Wall, or laugh at us and leave to find a community more to your liking.

But this forum is also populated by scammers.  And from time to time they come to this thread.  Some begging for money, some trying to find out personal details for the members here.

And some are trolls who come just to annoy/entertain.

So if you find this thread intersting, then visit from time to time.  Read the posts.  Respond to the ones you find interesting.  Disagree with those you think are wrong.  Be respectful, and make yourself a valuable member of the community.
1175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 03:05:34 AM
... very important concepts elucidated in this interview, Jason Lowery appears to be as visionary as they come in the bitcoin field

https://youtu.be/dqt23rVxmpY?t=3565

... proof-of-energy (energy production power projection) as a means for projecting superior power to back monetary units will be a huge evolutionary leap over proof-of-war, military power projection backed monetary units ... which has reached it's ultimate stalemate in nuclear mutually-assured-destruction endpoint anyway)

... the new accounting will be joules/sat not bombs/dollar

... thesis is about "mutually assured preservation"

... talks about and positive-sum games where everybody wins, not winner takes all, aka Nash equilibriums, everybody wins when homo-sapiens adopt bitcoin

No doubt.  Great advantage is afforded those who can see farther into the future.  He is still very young.  He will be a very wealthy, and possibly powerful man.
1176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2021, 04:19:08 PM


I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I think another issue with PlanB is the assumption that there will always be "a bear market -80% draw down" from every market top.

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

Truth!

Though to be fair he even makes this point himself, but is betting that we don't see the real impact of the shallowing/deepening/lengthening/whatever until 1 or 2 cycles in the future.
1177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2021, 01:24:43 PM
This is a bear trap...

Just sayin'.

Strap in?  Or Strap on?  Pick your fav I guess...



I will die on this hill!

Well... yeah. it might kill me. Smiley

(Do we see the bulls overcome the tax selling bears and front run 2022? or do we have to slog through the rest of December?)
1178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 05:55:21 PM
Looks like news of the China real estate defaults are starting to affect corn prices negatively?

This is a fascinating dynamic to me.  The Chinese real estate meltdown stands to be the gasoline on the fire that has been burning since the similar situation 13 years ago (that Satoshi mentions in the genesis block).

And that will have possibly profound effects on ALL markets.

But, as we are aware bitcoin has a particular property that makes it a VERY attractive haven in the midst of a storm like the one I think we are watching unfold.

So, I think as this gets worse all markets drop as money is moved to risk off investments.
  Bitcoin is still crazy speculative, and poised to be the most pristine risk-off asset in the world.

As much as I would like to see Bitcoin;s famous volatility fade a little?  I do not think we have seen the end of it yet.  But it should be interesting to watch.

Risk off as in deflation of ridiculous 100X leverage? Yes. (the price will move down or be flat in the short term as it finds a new bottom)

Risk off as in hedge funds NOT acquiring the underlying bitcoin asset on the DL? No.

As traditional overinflated equity markets drawback, all that money will be looking for safe hedge assets to run to. Because cash is still trash, and they know it.

Let's see what happens in the New Year.

Yep.  I think you are saying basically exactly what I mean.  We may still see volatility and (flash?) crashes since all markets will hurt in this, but ultimately this is possibly one of the safest places for money to go!  And THIS TIME there are HUGE NUMBERS of "trad" finance folks that are waking up to that fact.  As is always said if funds only park 1-5% here??  BOOM.

*EDIT* One other thought.

Bitcoin CONTINUES to make the journey for a Risk-on asset to a Risk-off asset.  And the opinions on which it is are QUITE polarized.

The old guard see it as a ridiculously speculative and volatile asset.  And of course they are right, particularly in the short term.
And the new folks see it as the (potential)  most pristine risk-off asset humanity has ever discovered. And of course they are right, particularly in the long term

It is similar to how money is made playing poker.  The game is all about luck in the short term. The next card decides all our fate.  But in the long term you make money by making the right decisions at each point of the game regardless of the next card.  Bitcoin is just the same, and the right decision is to place the majority of our wealth in it .  But sometimes we lose sight of the double goodness we have from being early.  For us right now the ASCENT is forefront in our minds.  But in the end SAFETY will become the biggest selling point.
1179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 01:38:08 PM
Looks like news of the China real estate defaults are starting to affect corn prices negatively?

This is a fascinating dynamic to me.  The Chinese real estate meltdown stands to be the gasoline on the fire that has been burning since the similar situation 13 years ago (that Satoshi mentions in the genesis block).

And that will have possibly profound effects on ALL markets.

But, as we are aware bitcoin has a particular property that makes it a VERY attractive haven in the midst of a storm like the one I think we are watching unfold.

So, I think as this gets worse all markets drop as money is moved to risk off investments.  Bitcoin is still crazy speculative, and poised to be the most pristine risk-off asset in the world.

As much as I would like to see Bitcoin;s famous volatility fade a little?  I do not think we have seen the end of it yet.  But it should be interesting to watch.
1180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2021, 01:43:01 PM
@dragonvslinux And @JayJuanGee Are you guys going to destroy the Bitcointalk database soon? (kidding)

Yes... not kidding.

They don't call him "Jay 'Blob Server' Juan 'Postgress Slayer' Gee" for nothing.
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