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141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2024, 07:04:25 PM

Even though a lot of folks are seeming depressed, I think that we still have some more uppity.. 12-18 months.. but yeah, there can be some stifling effect when the actual value propositions of bitcoin (self-custody) are seemingly ongoingly under attack and maybe moreso in recent times.

Bravo! This is the crucial part of the matter, indeed.
142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2024, 05:32:00 PM
Somehow, the situation feels similar to the spring-summer of 2017: the whole space undergoes growth while being at a tremendous assault of external factors.
Nobody knows what will transpire-it is really a "give" and "take". In 2017 the situation resolved bullishly, resulting in 10-15X in just a few months.
It is not clear to me that we have a similar situation here, but a bullish resolution is possible.

Sun Tzu said “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
I guess, bitcoin just have to wait long enough...I just don't see how a geometrically increasing debt situation can be resolved in a positive fashion.
It might take a decade, though.

Unfortunately, I don't have an extra decade in which to contemplate this without taking action, so started my distribution out of the space to something both physical (renovations, RE projects) and spiritual (travel).
Did not start with bitcoin, of course, but I am no longer in the accumulation phase, generally speaking, after a decade or so.
Judging by 2017, I have a terrible timing for my sales...so whatever satoshis I will peel off this year-enjoy the discount when buying your stash!
143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 26, 2024, 01:57:31 AM
Epoch 1 was 50 BTC per block, epoch 2 was 25, epoch 3 was 12.5, etc.

How did epoch 4 skip down to 3.125? What happened to 6.25?

Silly humans Epoch 0 was 50BTC

Nonsense. It's like centuries.

Years 1 to 999 were the 1st century. Years 2000 to 2024 (so far) is the 21st century.

There was no zeroth century.

Apart from the obvious typo of 999 instead of 99, it is an inherently contradictory statement because you start current century with a "0" (aka 2000), but you started the first century with a "1".
That said, there was no zeroth century (AD or any other count), indeed.
144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 24, 2024, 03:23:28 PM
Why should it ever be about CZ going in jail.... nonsense


It shouldn't, but tard traders react-timewise, a perfect correlation.
145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 24, 2024, 03:05:21 PM

It could be about the CZ news....

I don't know why the hell there are people who operate in the financial market based on news haha... the news comes out, instantly the trader presses SELL... how crazy lol

It's the proposed sentence for CZ, I agree.
However, the reaction to me seems to indicate that the bull is currently a bit weak/finiky.
146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 23, 2024, 10:08:43 PM
...

One article for JJG and anyone else interested in 200 day moving averages:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/23/bitcoins-200-day-average-is-approaching-a-record-high-heres-why-it-matters/?_gl=1*1l849lo*_up*MQ..*_ga*NjA4ODI3ODUuMTcxMzkwMjgwNg..*_ga_VM3STRYVN8*MTcxMzkwMjgwNS4xLjAuMTcxMzkwMjgwNS4wLjAuMTAxNjQ0Nzk4Mg..

he is into 200week MA...js
200day is a classic, sure.
147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 21, 2024, 02:16:53 AM
We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol
65.7% a year means 482469.65 on 2028

I will sign on for that.

I would rather go by 200-WMA, and consider any additional BTC spot price performance as icing on the cake... and yeah, it seems that mostly BTC tends to be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA - but not always... .

Sorry to be a party poop.. but I put the 200-WMA to be slightly over $100k by mid 2028 - so 25% above that would be $125k... and surely we may well get some peaks and troughs along the way, but doesn't seem healthy to be overly getting our hopes up... while at the same time, I am not giving up on my probability assignment charts that show 0.5%-ish odds for BTC prices to get into the $2.5 million or higher range.... yet I doubt that those would be sustainable prices.



It's OK to be conservative, but we are NOW at 65K or so.
Slightly above 100K, say, 105K, is less than 14% a year for the next 4 years.
Even Nasdaq beat this in the last decade or so.
I would venture a guess that practically no one invests in btc for these kind of returns.
If you have said: 30% a year (185K at the next halving), I might have agreed.
If you want to counter that current 200wk average is much lower, I would say-would those investing today consider a 200wk average in their buying?
Of course, not, they would only compare their level of success to the buy price, which is also the current spot price.
200wk average is there to show the history as it's trajectory is meaningless when projected forward since at any moment a curve bend might occur (adoption, etc).
148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 06:30:35 PM
When $7.5 million?

2035?

However, Jurrien Timmer says that btc may be $100 mil by 2035
https://www.coinspeaker.com/fidelity-bitcoin-btc-100-million-2035/

and 1 billion by 2038:
https://www.coinspeaker.com/bitcoin-worth-1-billion-2038-fidelity/

Of course, $$ will have to lose about 90% of the buying power by then (so, it is more like $100 mil in current $$)
149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 06:19:18 PM
Finally

"Grayscale Reveals 0.15% Fees For Its Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF"

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/20/grayscale-reveals-015-fees-for-its-bitcoin-mini-trust-etf/


Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini

and
Quote
The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing.

Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall

Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k (BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated...

Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini.
Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC.
That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol.
However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day?


Which part is irrelevant exactly? Fee is a fee. Not sure why you're picking extremes in volatility in other funds to further your point? In fact to flip this around, if you time it right you might add 2% profit on other funds by exploiting inefficiencies of their market makers (APs), come in when it trades at a discount and exit at a premium Huh

1,3% savings on fees, is about 1,3% relevant regardless how much underlying is moving.


Finally

"Grayscale Reveals 0.15% Fees For Its Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF"

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/20/grayscale-reveals-015-fees-for-its-bitcoin-mini-trust-etf/


Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini

and
Quote
The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing.

Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall

Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k (BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated...

Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini.
Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC.
That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol.
However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day?


From what I understand from the link, it's mainly a way to keep customers happy, who are "stuck" in the Grayscale environment if they don't want to pay a lot of taxes.


Hahaha ohh you got me there, yes i'm sure GBTC really cares about keeping their customers happy, you funny, i like you  Grin

Edit: On the bright side we might see a stop on GBTC outflows until mini is listed, meaning price...  Wink

Again, there is no discount in GBTC, so, with high volatility, 1.5% A YEAR fee is irrelevant unless you want to keep GBTC position for 5-10 years without trading in or out.
GBTC is largely a nothingburger at this point. The question of high volatility is not, however.
150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 06:13:39 PM
something annoying, but inevitable (relevant for US only):

https://bitcoinist.com/irs-reveals-preliminary-tax-form-for-digital-assets/
the proposed form itself is here:
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-dft/f1099da--dft.pdf

I still don't get it how it 'works' with assets that you transfer 'in' to Coinbase, for example.
how can they determine the cost basis?
Without this, it is meaningless and WILL result in collection errors.
Additionally, they call digital assets "securities", which is strange.

151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 05:59:37 PM
Finally

"Grayscale Reveals 0.15% Fees For Its Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF"

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/20/grayscale-reveals-015-fees-for-its-bitcoin-mini-trust-etf/


Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini

and
Quote
The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing.

Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall

Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k (BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated...

Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini.
Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC.
That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol.
However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day?


etf’s seem to have caused a lot of volatility.

it's possible as this is how major Wall street firms make their "trading" money.
152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 05:28:59 PM
Finally

"Grayscale Reveals 0.15% Fees For Its Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF"

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/20/grayscale-reveals-015-fees-for-its-bitcoin-mini-trust-etf/


Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini

and
Quote
The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing.

Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall

Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k (BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated...

Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini.
Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC.
That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of the facts, lol.
However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day?
153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 12:10:39 AM
someone mined an invalid block... or two.

Finally, 840000 with 37.63 BTC fees!!!

ViaBTC (buzz120) got all those fees, about $2.5 mil.
154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 12:01:10 AM
Since we are counting btc price by Bitstamp and it is in Europe, then, officially, halving would be on 4/20-this is historic!  Grin.
Besides, both UK and Central Europe plus Asia, Australia, etc are already in 4/20.
Congrats!

Bitcoin is international, not regional, so we use international time (UTC).

Down to 4 blocks.

dude, you are saying the same as me aka that halving would be on 4/20  Wink.

 Well, he's saying a similar thing but Luxembourg (and Bitstamp) is GMT+2 timezone rather than GMT so as long as we don't find 4 blocks in the next 3 minutes - we're (kerala) gold

Details  Cheesy
EDIT: look at those fees! Above 1 btc in the last 4-5 blocks.
155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 11:54:46 PM
Since we are counting btc price by Bitstamp and it is in Europe, then, officially, halving would be on 4/20-this is historic!  Grin.
Besides, both UK and Central Europe plus Asia, Australia, etc are already in 4/20.
Congrats!

Bitcoin is international, not regional, so we use international time (UTC).

Down to 4 blocks.

dude, you are saying the same as me aka that halving would be on 4/20  Wink.
156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 11:54:03 PM
We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol
157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 11:42:27 PM
Since we are counting btc price by Bitstamp and it is in Europe, then, officially, halving would be on 4/20-this is historic!  Grin.
Besides, both UK and Central Europe plus Asia, Australia, etc are already in 4/20.
Congrats!
158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 02:26:12 AM
Well...what now?
Oil 100 in a few weeks?

Bitcoin? Unknown.
At least is was BEFORE the halving.

EDIT: below 60K...or about..moving up-down erratically.
159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 01:58:36 AM

Wall Street is simply trying to tell everyone who is the boss and that we should pay no attention to halving, etc.
They can succeed in a short time frame, but not in the long one.

That and: strikes are reported... Dow and S&P futures are down, gold, oil and silver are up.
160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2024, 09:53:58 PM
Bitcoin is moving up/down a thou in a few hours, repeatedly.
I think that it is really 'thin' on exchanges and this exacerbates the moves.
Let the corn grow!
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