What you fellas think about tomorrow?
If inflation is up less than expected, then markets would start pricing in earlier pivot and, perhaps, just 50bp rise at the next meeting.
If inflation perked up (less likely, imho, since gas prices are not increasing), the we might jerk down.
Place your bets.
It might go up, or down, or go sideways tomorrow. sorry, that prediction is not playable,  |
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What you fellas think about tomorrow? If inflation is up less than expected, then markets would start pricing in earlier pivot and, perhaps, just 50bp rise at the next meeting. If inflation perked up (less likely, imho, since gas prices are not increasing), the we might jerk down. Place your bets. Philosophically, if time is an illusion and everything that is going to happen already happened (in the block universe theory, see https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-09-02/block-universe-theory-time-past-present-future-travel/10178386 ), then bitcoin's success either happened or not happened. Let's hope for the former. As a side note, it seems that this universe is devoid of advanced civilizations...perhaps an indication that some "things" did not happen...would be sad, really. Still, there is a chance that those "things" did not happen so far, but would happen eventually...we have less a billion years on Earth (would have to move to a planet around a K-type star), then in 4 bil years a collision with Andromeda (dramatic skies). A story here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wd0AYx8j0Uand https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R12DMYoYWFw |
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The world is shocked by Elon's betrayal of Ukraine. Refusing Starlink in Crimea for the Ukrainians, accepting occupied territories as russian, etc. Honey Badger says to the shocked peeps: hold my beer! The same betrayal Elond tried to do to the Honey Badger. But he failed miserably gaining only laughs for his total lack of knowledge and understanding how Bitcoin works. The damage to shitcoiners however was severe. Nonetheless Elon rejoiced on the news of desperation and suicides because of his tweets. Now he is happy with the videos of killed women and children and wants this to continue. The power to influence people to their death is intoxicating for those with broken concsience like our asperger guy.
This is how asperger morons behave: first they pledge their friendship to you. And after they are convinced you trust them, they enjoy stabbing your back by robbing everything from you. But this is a textbook rule. They are mentally damaged people. They have feelings opposite the normal people have. It is like the cleptomania - they know their weakness and still continue doing it even to their closest friends and family. But since the bipolar aspergers have good mechanical memory, the world sees them as intelligent people and makes the mistake of forgiving them everything. So it is definitely a shocker for the most people to understand that someone can be a successful businessman/scientist/artist, etc. and at the same time to have the moral of Putler. So no wonder Putler and Elon became besties.
I strongly disagree. Elon is not a "typical Asperger's representative", and Asperger's isn't even just a "disorder", it's a spectrum of neurological differencies combined with genetic factors, compared to the neurotypical society (who are commonly called the "normies", or "NT's"). Asperger's Syndrome was erased from the ICD, and added to the ASD (Autistic Spectrum Disorder). Well, i can say Elon is a moron for sure, and i doubt his ASD is the root cause. I don't even credit you any deeper knowledge about Autism, based on the rubbish you let off in the quoted post. Elon's problem is self-righteousness. My wife is working with "low functional" ASD people since many years, i know quite a lot about ASD and Asperger's and in this same sentence i decided to finally come out revealing my high functional ASD diagnosis to you all. I was thinking a lot of times about mentioning it here, at the same time i knew how polarizing and misunderstood this particular range of disorders still is (thanks to "Rain Man", Thunberg, Elon and more). The core fact is, if you are willing to learn: You can't compare any two individuals having ASD. They're all different, and your comparative rant is just bullshit. Elon is an egoistic fuckhead, but something like an asperger moron is inexistant in high functional ASD individuals. It's your (neurotypical) urge to simplify which gave birth to the prejudiced assumption "all Asperger's are the same". Albert Einstein was an asperger moron, too  Last not least, replying to your bullshit post made me feel a little better. Thanks for the opportunity  Asperger "moron" is a misnomer...all people with Asperger I know are highly intelligent, some are with social quirks which makes them interesting. Lately, I observe a lot of name calling on this thread and board as a whole. It's possibly someone's prerogative to say these things, but the "silence of the crowd" does not indicate acceptance on the part of the readers. Au contraire. |
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Observing $19,433 & twiddling my thumbs during an expected, long term boring crab market. I wish bitcoin would break up hard or even in the opposite direction so I can gobble up loads of cheap coins (obviously preference is up). It’s just, the current price does nothing for any of us. There is no way I am selling a single satoshi at this price. I have bought a big % of what I sold in 2021 back already but I am sitting on a pile of fiat now, unwilling to buy more. It either dumps to make me buy more or I keep that fiat. So any way yeah, just willing bitcoin to do SOMETHING so I can do something positive  Feels like we’ve been stuck between $18,000 & $23,500 for ages. This is not unexpected though, the way it should go if we are repeating past cycles is, one more dump, an awful capitulation to about $12,000 to $14,000 which causes suicidal thoughts & more mindrust’s. Mainstream media says it’s over, everybody thinks we’re going to $0. This is what forms cycle bottoms, could happen between now & mid 2023. Then we start to slowly climb up, maybe reach the halving in mid 2024 at $30,000 to $40,000. Still boring but with a slight upwards trajectory we plod to the end of 2024. 2025 comes & we start to break upwards, memes & green dildos everywhere we see a new ATH. Couple of pullbacks mid 2025 but then we power to over $150,000 by the end of 2025 as the cycle top & then the cycle starts all over again.Are you ready?  Yeah, this seems like a consensus for most...which makes it unlikely to happen. Personally, I see two other possibilities, depending on overall macro: 1. More likely time-wise (Scenario 1): Despite their current pronouncements, Fed is going to pivot at the end of 2022 or by the end of Q1 2023 and this would mark the start of the bull in bitcoin. From what price? Unknowable, but your numbers are certainly possible. If this happens as described, we should go close to max long by April 2023 and stay there. 2. Scenario 2: dark times. It's hard to discuss it, but if macro will turn depression-like, bitcoin would (at least initially) turn sideways and/or down and the price could become highly volatile and, basically, random. In this scenario, we are in 2007 and the main volatility is ahead. Yes, BOE made some moves and bought itself time, but as we know from 2007, these "small" moves only work for a limited time duration (the rescue of Countrywide in US in the summer of 2007 did not prevent Bear Stearns and Lehman 6-10 mo later). My allocation of probability to this scenario is still less than 20%, but is rising, unfortunately. In this scenario, the bottom is unpredictable, but once everyone start printing en masse and implement yield control, bitcoin should revitalize and go to ATH, eventually. |
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@jjg...naah, I am in a good mood today-weather is finally cooperating and I decided to ignore the larger world and be philosophical, but not ignorant, about it.
That said...your 0.31 BTc or 0.63 BTc is not likely to be a 'proper' disclosure either, lol, considering that you are at it since 2013 and had 20 years of investing experience beforehand, allegedly. That's OK, though, you have what you have, mostly "hot" as a pancake, not "moldy", right?
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I can explain the whole Celcius business model in less than 5 minutes to anyone that doesnt know anything about crypto. ...(apt explanation)...
All the insiders sold and made bank
A couple years back I had a job writing for one of the top 3 crypto news websites. One day my asshole editor tells me I'm doing an interview with Alex Mashinsky (Celsius CEO) for a story, gear up. The subject of the story is to be about how an "independent research firm" puts Celsius' valuation 3x higher than its previous assessment. I do a bit of background research and find out said research firm is heavily invested in Celsius. Additional research into Maskinsky's claims about being the inventor of this and that technology (all bogus) lead me to suspect he's a sociopath douche. I bring this up to my editor and tell him I don't feel comfortable doing the interview or writing the story. He says write it or you're fired. Two days later I'm fired. Fast-forward two years: the editor has been a heavy supporter of Mashinsky and customer of Celsius. He lost everything he put in there. When all the shit went down earlier this year I was tempted to write him a "ha-ha-told-you-so"-type email or expose him publicly, but I never did. I reckon its ultimately not necessary, but can't help but wonder if he remembers me. An interesting story...Texas actually sued Celsius and thinking that they would probably prevent state inhabitants from participating probably saved my hide with respect to Celsius. I was 'hungry" for yield in 2020-2021 and could have lost a bit there, but didn't. Or, maybe it was a little doubt, I cannot really recall. Same happened with Mt. Gox in late 2013...never bought anything there, just did not feel right. |
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"Satoshi Nakamoto wrote about a new way to move value on the internet. Nakamoto — we still don’t know who she, he, or they were — didn’t have faith in the financial sector overseen by folks like us, sitting around this table"
> Chairman of the SEC
He is simply positioning for the Treasury sec job, me thinks. |
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"The One"..."most expensive" house in US... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEJO5s29AhcWho knows, maybe someone who "ate" LUNA can afford it, lol. Maybe a first block of a future Citadel....eventually. BTW, seller/developer claimed it to be worth $500 mil, then tried to get $295 mil, end up selling for $126 mil+12% commish ($141 mil). |
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I wonder how much contagion Credit Suisse becoming a power-bottom is going to cause...
They all seem to play the same game...maybe others are a bit stressed as well. Some predict a bottom at S&P at 3500 (close), others are more pessimistic. So far, bitcoin held the line. Will it continue? Hopefully. |
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Saylor's buying, so you can be sure the price absolutely will not sustain itself above $20k. We'll be below $19k next week as the world continues to offload this particularly useless risk asset in the midst of a financial crisis that only fiat can save us from. Hop on the USD lifeboat before it's too late.
USD lifeboat: dude that shit may stink but it does float. all us citizens should be grabbing us savings bonds type I right now. let proudhon lead the way. rumors are they are thinking of making it 30K/year/person, so a family could have 60K (plus potentially up to 5K from tax refunds). Not bad... |
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I guess I would have to move up from one to two cups a day and add one decaf |
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ALL of them either don't know what they are doing or cannot predict the consequence of their actions, imho. Considering BOE move, i just cannot see 75bp at the next FED meeting, especially if October inflation readings will be benign. If they try 75, I believe that the markets would teach them a lesson. Something would become broken and they would be also forced to do an "invervention" and that point ALL credibility would be lost. At which point people en masse would start figuring out that bitcoin has a monetary policy that could be relied on? I am still waiting...and waiting. |
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It's becoming quite scandalous, considering that Barry is still collecting his 2% on a yearly basis. |
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ha ha...at first I did not get it.. ..it is is not as bad in the states (so far), "only" 40-50% increase in my electricity bill, nat gas is still not much in use with temp about 33-34C in H-town. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen. Why? Because many factors are in play. If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies. Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing". This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho. I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC. I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now. Here is one possibility..say, October inflation readings are low (due to a large drop in the price of oil). Suddenly, market would switch to a "bullish" 50 points (0.5%) rate hike and bear market would be essentially over. Could it happen? maybe..i give this scenario a 30% chance. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen. Why? Because many factors are in play. If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies. Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates to be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing". The rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho. |
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2021 was particularly wimpy for the last bull year of the cycle. A possible explanation: market started anticipating a rapid tightening by the Fed. Notably, all large tech turned down almost at the same time despite high profits. |
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Is pound edging to dollar parity?
Would it be a first?
Currently below prior 1.10 low in 1985.
Things seem to move fast these days.
Waiting for the sustained upward move in btc, which might come by the end of Q1 2023, imho.
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