On the left is the number of wallets...on the right is the price.
Does the number 100, 60, 40...say anything.? Of course it does..it says that they are talking about the number of wallets with >10K bitcoins (not $$).
Do you think that there are only about 100 wallets with more than $10K?
Of course, not, there are probably about a million of such wallets according to https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

An interesting read:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/three-arrows-capital-kyle-davies-su-zhu-crash.html


Exaaactly..the whole bear was suspiciously swift coming from the no-blowoff situation.
There was a blowoff, but it was located in a large part in this fund (plus Celsius).
Small bitcoin wallets had no bear market features whatsoever (as far as growth in accounts).
One possible conclusion is that the recovery might be swifter than in 2014-2015.

I am typically more optimistic when the majority are pessimistic and pessimistic during the rah-rah stages.
It usually served me well, but it cannot predict the absolute top and bottom, though.
The trends could also take longer to play in time, not only levels, which typically kills long options trades (even if you guess right on direction).

OT

English Premier Ligue...wtf is going on in there?
https://youtu.be/0RiGydlyTcM?t=509
and then, the same two "characters":
https://youtu.be/0RiGydlyTcM?t=869

bizarro...did we all got infected with an "angry" virus?
I see it every day on H-town highways.

You and the twitter guy both seem to misinterpret the graph.
It is not the graph of people with more than $10K in a wallet, it is a graph of wallets with more than 10K bitcoin.
Naturally, as the total number of bitcoin got mined from 0% to 90%, the number of such wallets should rise in the graph just like that.
Additionally, one can conclude that large whales were selling/distributing bitcoin since 2016.
Their slice of the pie is melting, which is a natural progression as well, correlating with an exponential increase in wallets containing 0.1-1 btc (shown in prior discussions and here: https://coingape.com/retail-bitcoin-holders-with-balance-0-01-0-1-btc-reaches-new-high/).
some additional stats are here (check the references as well):
https://bitcoinist.com/how-many-people-actually-have-at-least-1-bitcoin/

We are up 39% from the low...how is that "denies it"?
Twitter and pundits 'hate' this bull run, that's true.
A gazillion of 'a new leg down to $13-14K" opinions.
Maybe you mistake their voice for the 'market opinion'?
$200K price is as good as any. Imho, it will be $110K-240K based on multiple scenarios and calculations (shown elsewhere).
Personally, I am probably selling at least 20% in 2025, no matter what the price is (hopefully, would catch the peak within 20-30%).

hmmm...where are the 'funnies' here?  

In bold: that is, indeed, a salient point.
However, most of US citizens are used to banks (and brokerages) having their cash. Technically, once they have it, it' s their liability (at least in case of cash).
Assuming that banks (or similar org) would have to be involved (for now, i don't believe that there would be billions of accounts directly on ledger/trezor), then HOW we can both have a "your coin" situation, but yet have some economic activity directly sponsored by your btc (otherwise it's just a store of value like gold and pretty much nothing else)?

Perhaps, it will be all phone wallet based with borrowing that includes direct collateral. Like: "you want to borrow $1 mil of my bitcoin, then give me $1 mil of stable collateral plus 5% yearly divvy". For once, i think that fractional reserve practice would seize to exist at some point, driven in part by the desire of SLOWER (more sustainable) economic growth.

TL;DR Celcius and Voyager taught us NOT to release our keys to a third party, but how to organize lending WITHOUT giving your key to a third party is a challenge.

OT, but i am curious to what the value of POW fork of VB coin would be.
People estimate 3-10% (IOU is currently about 4%).
I vaguely remember that bitcoin fork was initially about $440 when btc was $2756 (16%) and about 20% at max in December 2017 (3900 vs 19200).

I am deeply suspicious of all non-POW coins, but it would be an interesting test, albeit Defi and USDC/tether might lean against the POW for cough-eth-cough.
Ready to observe the happenings with much interest.
Why interest: 'cause i am sick and tired listening to verbiage against bitcoin as a "user" of energy.
BTW, anything worth doing uses energy, but don't tell this to the ESG crowd.

This could be tradable, yo.

bud interrupt

A simple thesis:

A 'premature' top (at 69K) suggests less downside (aka 17.6K at minus 74-75%) as the bottom.

I am not sure whether this 'mild' cycle suggests that the next one would be even milder or more ferocious (on both upside and downside).
I am 55/45 on this, but if milder still next time, then next top would be somewhere at 84K and next bottom at $29.6K.
Seems a bit lower from what I expected, so maybe cycle being even milder would not be in the cards.
If the same params as the last one, then 240K top and 60K-96.8K bottom (this seems a bit optimistic from here and now).
Honestly, i think that the price of btc at the halving should be a signal to where the top might be.
many people predict 40K at the halving and if so, $240K seems doable.

All those "last selfies" are ABSOLUTE crap, imho.
A bit tired of all that f-en blood and gore.
I would rather see a universe a la Star trek then something out of Dante's circles.
Sorry, but not sorry for some optimism.

That..and the "Terminal list" is questionable too.
Spoiler alert:
The dude kills at least a dozen of security contractors to get to his "justified target" and it was apparently cool by the writers of the 'flick".
Are they simply NPCs? Did not matter because they were paid for the job?
What kind of perversion is that?
Shows something dark in the american psyche, imho.

It's no "Three days of the Condor", which was a very good movie made in mid seventies and has some similarities, but by no means parallel.

Talking about idleness...it has it's own benefits:

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2022/08/benefits-of-doing-nothing/671035/

The most surprising for me was that many people cannot be idle even for 4-15 min....

as a late night dream....I picture Bob's avatar (mohawk and all) flying through the air equipped with a high quality machete screaming something undecipherable (probably something about everybody not having done a proper ballz exercise with the titanium plates for this occasion).

relax...nobody would do anything...it's all for show.

no, bluish is Hubble, reddish is Webb, imho. one image "transforms" into another.
basically, interstellar dust absorbs UV and visible light, but does not absorb infrared, hence Webb's ability to "see through" better than Hubble in red/infrared.
I wonder if Webb could look at the Milky Way "arch". It should look quite different from what we used to, imho.
Not sure if it could take such panoramic view, though.

the wriggly lines are just wriggly lines without a context.
taken by itself the 2K number does not sound credible IF you don't delineate conditions of WHY or when it would happen.
IF bitcoin goes below 17.6K (without apocalyptic macro), then there are plenty of other supports before 2K, which is a COMPLETELY arbitrary number.
But, go ahead, post more wriggly lines (one of them just might be right).

Nope, it's just an abritrary wriggly line indicating someone's opinion (which are dime and dozen on trading view).
can it happen? sure.
What is the chance? If everything is approximately how it is now, then 1% or less.
If macro goes to s-t, then it is possible, but then EVERYTHING is possible.

Re whether April 2021 or Nov 2021 was the 'real' top, opinions differ.
In price, it is Nov, of course. In everything else: momentum, various on-chain metrics, etc, April looks like a better fit.
As bears in bitcoin usually last at least 12-14 mo, therefore, IF June's ~$17.6K would be an ultimate bottom, then, indeed, it would help to think about bear market lasting since last April.
On the other hand, if the bottom (lower than $17.6K) would occur between now and next January-February, then it would seem that Nov 2021 was the "true" top.
I know that it sounds wishy-washy, but in fact, it is more like a truly undetermined state....our future measurement (of the bottom) would determine the "true top" call.

watched Ep 1 of the "T. List"...much confused, hopefully it clears up in the following.
Basically, if someone shows person's hallicinations as being "real", then I am prone to question whatever else the character "sees", hence the plot becomes blurred as to what is real and what is imaginary.
Remember "Jacob's ladder", the movie?
It's a tough one...but feels somehow connected, maybe.

an oppressive heat
mostly indoors for a week
no end to it, bleh!

#haiku