If it was my casino I would have done it if my bankroll was sufficient
I presume Trump roll was more than 100m$
The three Trump casino had gross revenue of $2.2m /day (from gambling) back in 1990
I don't think you can consider that the max bet will stay the same no matter what in the JD case
Probably not, but I was trying to simplify the mathematics if someone wanted to make a stab.
In an ideal world the max bet would have been 0.5% of the bankroll from the start but considering it was 1% it could have been lowered to 0.5%; dooglus was risking his whole business to make some money, he considered it was not worth it.
Well, when you say "risking his whole business" you are looking at it after the fact. No matter what the parameter settings there is still risk of extreme swings. There was a play in October where he hit the 0.5% threshold repeatedly. The player stopped for two hours and came back to play one more time to lose 7000BTC.
Yes, you could raise HE, and lower max bets to the point that there is no fear, but investors would drop out and players would not play at this level.
The next time the investors may be pleased to have a big win.
1,768 BTC @ 92.00% won 134 BTC
1,768 BTC @ 92.00% won 134 BTC
1,768 BTC @ 92.00% won 134 BTC
2,171 BTC @ 92.00% won 165 BTC
2,336 BTC @ 92.00% won 178 BTC
2,514 BTC @ 92.00% won 191 BTC
2,514 BTC @ 92.00% won 191 BTC
2,896 BTC @ 92.00% won 220 BTC
3,117 BTC @ 93.00% won 201 BTC
3,318 BTC @ 93.00% won 214 BTC
3,534 BTC @ 95.00% won 149 BTC
3,683 BTC @ 95.00% won 155 BTC
3,847 BTC @ 93.01% won 248 BTC <=== probably max profit from here on
3,847 BTC @ 93.03% won 247 BTC
3,847 BTC @ 93.09% won 244 BTC
3,847 BTC @ 93.20% won 239 BTC
4,825 BTC @ 94.30% won 240 BTC
5,066 BTC @ 94.55% won 238 BTC
5,304 BTC @ 95.09% won 218 BTC
5,520 BTC @ 95.21% won 220 BTC
5,520 BTC @ 95.21% won 220 BTC
5,959 BTC @ 95.51% won 218 BTC
6,177 BTC @ 95.71% won 212 BTC
6,390 BTC @ 95.81% won 213 BTC
6,602 BTC @ 95.95% won 210 BTC
6,812 BTC @ 96.04% won 210 BTC
7,016 BTC @ 96.20% lost 7,016 BTC
Following questions
1) If Akio plays "player bet" in baccarat, what is the probability that he would win the bet?
2) If Tawaka plays JD, what is the probability that he will win the challenge?
3) Would this be a smart move by dooglus? His he just taunting the bear that bit him?
Perhaps I wasn't clear on these questions.
1) I assume Akio is paid the $6M that he is owed by Trump in the form of large value chips. Assuming that Akio plays $200K each time, what is the chance that he will reach $12M before going to zero. He must have a 'reasonable' chance or he wouldn't play.
2) If Tawaka plays JD and brings his own 10,000 BTC that he won last year, and is limited to 250BTC per bet, what is the chance that he will make it to 20,000 BTC before going bust. To make matters simple consider that the BANK always stays above 50,000 BTC so there is no limit. Tawaka takes it as a gentleman's challenge and plays to bust or until 20K.
3) I am saying that Donald Trump extended this challenge in 1990. Would dooglus be smart to mimic the Donald? I haven't seen Tawaka's individual bets last summer. I don't know if he was playing for profits above 250BTC by taking advantage of the 1% maximum bet.
1-Less than 2% but more than 0.3%
2-Less than 2% but more than 0.3%
These answers are clearly not correct for questions #1 and #2. As I said, I may not have been clear.
The difference between the two questions is different house edge (1.36% vs 1.00%) and different number of units ($6,000,000/$200,000=30 units and 10,000BTC/250BTC= 40 units).
I figured you wanted to use 30units @ 1.36% casino edge or 40units @ 1% casino edge has the same because it is in the same order of magnitude in terms of probability
As I said before, the most interesting probabilities would be the odds of winning 25% 50% and 75% of the bankroll for Nakowa when the max bet was 1% of the roll and considering he probably won 10K and may had 8K more available if needed
If investors want the maximised their final wealth they need to follow the kelly criterion for bets giving a 1-1 payout because they are the most commun
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, also happened to me with litecoin, but i just couldnt risk it, had to liquidate
