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161  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinbase. :-( on: March 11, 2015, 07:07:06 PM
wait, so pretty much every newbie who registers with them will encounter this or no?

No, and they have an algorithm that will do that to some accounts. They are not out to stick it to newbs..
162  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: wot if blockchain got to 100 terabit wot then on: March 11, 2015, 07:05:38 PM
People using “wot” make me automatically assume they are being sarcastic.

Amazing. I automatically assume they are retarded/dumb.

@topic: Moores law. Even if everyblock is full of transactions.

@1 MB --> 52 GB per year
@20 MB --> 1040 GB per year

So such storage is possible today and will forever be possible.

if global adoption happens to come within a few years you would need to reserve at least 1tb of space every year for the blockchain alone. if every block reaches 20mb cap. running a node at home will become quite hard.

But that is basically the thing. A normal user shouldn't need to run the full blockchain.

Also if blocksize really explodes to 40 times the size today, then the price will probably increase a few times too, thus increasing the incentive for the community to run more nodes.
163  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: INVEST BITCOIN!!! on: March 11, 2015, 07:03:41 PM
Insider trading is illegal and immoral, but it's probably the best way to generate a huge profit with minimal risk, if the guy you're talking to is a person you know and trust. Probably the best option to go for if you're trading altcoins etc., as there's lots of people on the dark net who can provide those kind of information.

regardless if its immoral or not, people do it lol

its called capitalism and those who can get away with it will do it over again.

Insider trading might be immoral but it is definately not illegal in all markets. Bitcoin and altcoin markets are not regulated and can thus not be under normal regulation regarding insider trading.

And because of that, some people who have some solid connections to the exchanges do this, generating themselves huge profits. I would admit that if I have that some kind of connection, I would sometimes do it for the sake of profit. Not being greedy or evil, but just being practical.

There is no obligation whatsoever to not do it. You actually make the markets more efficient by doing it. "invisible hand" kind of thing Wink
164  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: wot if blockchain got to 100 terabit wot then on: March 11, 2015, 06:47:59 PM
People using “wot” make me automatically assume they are being sarcastic.

Amazing. I automatically assume they are retarded/dumb.

@topic: Moores law. Even if everyblock is full of transactions.

@1 MB --> 52 GB per year
@20 MB --> 1040 GB per year

So such storage is possible today and will forever be possible.
165  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How many confirmations until i can re-send the money on: March 11, 2015, 06:44:41 PM
You can send your BTC away after 0 confirmations if you export the private key and use any other wallet. This is really easy so everyone should be able to do it.
166  Economy / Gambling / Re: How to gamble with 1 BTC on: March 11, 2015, 06:43:22 PM
this has been discussed before

here is the thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.0

and this will be the best way to win 2 btc with 1 btc from the discussion of the thread

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is
Code:
ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)
you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of
Code:
0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536
or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of
Code:
prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312
leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct  Tongue

Can you explain to me how it is possible to decrease the house edge overall by using such a strategy?
167  Other / Meta / Re: Would you like to see ChangeTip working here and in forums generally? on: March 11, 2015, 06:36:32 PM

ChangeTip is so extremely annoying on reddit. I don't understand why this can't be done via PMs....
I hope it dies and doesn't reach BTT.

Personally I like seeing who sent who what but PM-ing may be a good option or the ability to turn off seeing the notification for those that don't care about it.

There must be a way to achive that without it being a post (like on reddit currently).
168  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: INVEST BITCOIN!!! on: March 11, 2015, 06:35:02 PM
Insider trading is illegal and immoral, but it's probably the best way to generate a huge profit with minimal risk, if the guy you're talking to is a person you know and trust. Probably the best option to go for if you're trading altcoins etc., as there's lots of people on the dark net who can provide those kind of information.

regardless if its immoral or not, people do it lol

its called capitalism and those who can get away with it will do it over again.

Insider trading might be immoral but it is definately not illegal in all markets. Bitcoin and altcoin markets are not regulated and can thus not be under normal regulation regarding insider trading.
169  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: March 11, 2015, 06:33:31 PM
it doesn't matter where you use it. it is always negative EV.

Not strictly true. I've seen people martingale their investment on Just-Dice:

Invest 10 units for an hour. If it makes a profit, leave it, if it makes a loss, double the investment and wait an hour. Repeat.

Since investing is +EV, the net effect of the martingale is also +EV.

A better statement is that martingale doesn't change your EV. If flat betting is -EV then so is martingale betting.

Completely agree. I thought we were exclusively talking about the -EV casino games.

But the strategy you were talking about is probably also not the optimum for longterm capital appreciation.
170  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: March 11, 2015, 06:32:22 PM
ahh martingale reeeeally work on sport betting with single play dont parlay Tongue but still doesn't work in dice
i use martingale in slots as well

it doesn't matter where you use it. it is always negative EV.

Well you cant really calculate the EV on sports because it changes. And there is people that win a lot of money on sport bets so its not always negative

Sure, if you have a positive EV, martingale won't change that! But as we were talking about casino games I assumed we were limiting our talk to -EV games only.
171  Economy / Speculation / Re: I have USD 2000 to invest. Should I buy Bitcoins or gold? on: March 11, 2015, 06:31:03 PM
I would invest the whole amount in Bitcoin and wait till it go high then sell and do it again.

How would you know when to buy and when to sell? How long do you wait before rebuying? What if the price rises while you are not invested?

I guess if it rises to 700$ or so, that would be top for me and signal to sell.
I would wait for such price, in the meantime I would use it for some passive incomes which I'm investigating now
like lending.

The problem with such longterm strategies is that you have 2 scenarios in Bitcoin:
- Either it completely fails and it will never reach your desired price level
- It is very successful and goes way higher than your desired price level

So, the cases where it doesn't reach your level need to be compensated with the times it reaches way higher levels. But with selling before that happens you take away the upwards potential while keeping the whole downside one.
172  Economy / Speculation / Re: I have USD 2000 to invest. Should I buy Bitcoins or gold? on: March 11, 2015, 06:12:39 PM
I would invest the whole amount in Bitcoin and wait till it go high then sell and do it again.

How would you know when to buy and when to sell? How long do you wait before rebuying? What if the price rises while you are not invested?
173  Other / Meta / Re: Would you like to see ChangeTip working here and in forums generally? on: March 11, 2015, 06:10:08 PM
ChangeTip is so extremely annoying on reddit. I don't understand why this can't be done via PMs....
I hope it dies and doesn't reach BTT.
174  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Coinbase. :-( on: March 11, 2015, 06:03:30 PM
Yeah, this is done on new accounts.  Never had a problem in over a year.   Not a big problem at all.  Can you guys imagine the amount of fraud trying to be pulled on them every second of the day?    Morons will work a week to scam someone out of .02 btc. 

Add to this, that many of those scammers will scream the loudest once they are getting an order rejected.
175  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: March 11, 2015, 06:02:33 PM
ahh martingale reeeeally work on sport betting with single play dont parlay Tongue but still doesn't work in dice
i use martingale in slots as well

it doesn't matter where you use it. it is always negative EV.
176  Economy / Exchanges / Re: BTER.com hacked - 7170 BTC stolen [DON'T KEEP YOUR MONEY ON AN EXCHANGE] on: March 11, 2015, 05:57:35 PM
I will use them again after they return the 7000BTC  Wink

They returned a BTC token Wink

I am really eager to see at what price this token will trade Cheesy

I'm gonna buy a few with my now devalued dogecoins, provided the price of these tokens will be at 50% or below that of orthodox bitcoins.

I don't think they will offer a DOGE/BTC-C market. Just a BTC/BTC-C Market.

Doge active.  ^^^

Sure but is it a real BTC market or the tokens?
177  Economy / Exchanges / Re: BTER.com hacked - 7170 BTC stolen [DON'T KEEP YOUR MONEY ON AN EXCHANGE] on: March 11, 2015, 05:34:20 PM
I will use them again after they return the 7000BTC  Wink

They returned a BTC token Wink

I am really eager to see at what price this token will trade Cheesy

I'm gonna buy a few with my now devalued dogecoins, provided the price of these tokens will be at 50% or below that of orthodox bitcoins.

I don't think they will offer a DOGE/BTC-C market. Just a BTC/BTC-C Market.
178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 11, 2015, 04:20:02 PM
Gold really collapsing. Bitcoin UP.



Are you sure? Because losing 5% in one month is not what I call collapsing.

Well, given I made this post on 8/9/11, Gold: I Smell a Trap, I think I've earned the right to say "yeah, I'm sure".

Well, will you look at that. Nice timing. Do you still hold a single ounce of gold or are you 100% BTC in the BTC/GLD pair?

Sold all the silver and most of the gold. Still retain 2 sleeves of gold coins but that's it. Bitcoin is the future.

I keep offering to sell those 2 sleeves to all the gold bugs who stop by every once in a while claiming they're worth $30000/oz for a mere $15000/oz but not a one of them take me up on the deal.

Haha Wink

I am pretty much in the same situation. I sold most of my gold in early 2013 but rebought some in mid 2014.

Gold is still very nice to balance a portfolio of Stocks and Bonds, unlike BTC it is directly negatively correlated to those.

Actually that negative correlation is now changing to positive correlation as we enter deflation. Go back and look at the charts of the brief deflationary 2008-9. Gold and gold stocks dropped significantly along with stocks and non UST bonds. This time that correlated drop should be even greater. And gold is leading.

You are absolutely right and I took that apparent change into account when I bought the gold. But as I was going for an 10y+ investment and I still think in that timeframe it will work as a buffer on swings.

Only time will tell, but even if it is positively correlated it won't hurt me too much.

You'll only be right if Bitcoin fails. That's not looking too likely imo.

Bitcoin has all the properties of a super money that gold can only aspire to be.  That has to be on your radar.

I have plenty of BTC. Most normal investors would say I am way overinvested. So I am not too worried if BTC fails or succeeds. I will be fine either way.
179  Economy / Exchanges / Re: BTER.com hacked - 7170 BTC stolen [DON'T KEEP YOUR MONEY ON AN EXCHANGE] on: March 11, 2015, 04:18:41 PM
I will use them again after they return the 7000BTC  Wink

They returned a BTC token Wink

I am really eager to see at what price this token will trade Cheesy
180  Economy / Speculation / Re: I have USD 2000 to invest. Should I buy Bitcoins or gold? on: March 11, 2015, 04:15:24 PM
I was thinking in gold after the gold watch from apple.
If is a sucess they are going to need a lot of gold to do all this watches



If you do the math, you will see that they don't. Industrial gold usage compared to gold production is about 10%....
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