I think it depends on the market state of mind. If people are in a panic for example then volume is important to consider but still difficult to judge. Volume with Bitcoin is actually very difficult to judge in any accurate way in any case. Looking at the order books is deceptive - there are full accounts without limit orders - and I don't think you can read Bitcoin in the same way as stocks and shares when it comes to volume.

I don't think most people are in a panicky mood at all now. But people wanting to buy in might get more panicky as the uptrend continues, causing a some steeper stuff in the weeks to come.

Sorry if I have misunderstood something but mining is actually necessary to keep the blockchain updated with payments. It is therefore important to factor this into the argument for the future. When Bitcoin takes off as a payments system (both Bitcoin transactions and Fiat > Bitcoin > Fiat [think Bitpay] transactions) then miners are powering the engine that keeps this system going. It will be necessary that they remain profitable in order that they stay in business to power the system - the price of Bitcoins must be satisfactory to the miners - but you should also remember that they will take a share of transaction fees within the system, which should count for more, a lot more, in the future.

Bit earlier than that - we will at least scrape it if not break it in January

Some crazy maths you've got going on there 

Note to myself: buy more bitcoins in January 2014 

Doesn't sound like you've lost hope at all 

Just like everyone else

I thought I'd start this thread for those bears who might be fast losing hope and don't know where to turn.

It's a virtual temple dedicated to whales.

You can leave your prayers here, beseeching whales to dump 1000s of Bitcoins and cause panic. Remember, the more sincere the prayer the more likely it is to be answered.



PS. Please follow temple etiquette: remember to take off your shoes before visiting this thread. 

 

Surely that would be "low volume and light manipulation" then wouldn't it?  

If you are dreaming about it then it's getting serious - don't worry, I know the feeling! 

All I can say is that the feelings of hope and fear have got to be greatly magnified because this is unchartered territory - "too vast and complex for any of our rational minds to fully comprehend" as you say. That's why we are getting wildly fluctuating opinions from financial experts as well.

But think carefully and it's not so unchartered as it might seem. It's a classic story of a fast-growing Internet company like Twitter, Pinterest, Facebook, etc. It's just decentralised! For want of a better example, it's like bacteria growth. It's viral. From this point you just have to try to work out whether or not we are reaching saturation. Unless I have some seriously messed up reading of the situation, we are nowhere near saturation point at all. We are still very early.

And it is this early bird feeling that also heightens fear. But I would argue that we are in a much stronger position than would be a normal company at this stage. The "early mover" head start has given a very clear advantage to Bitcoin. It has by far the biggest momentum and media coverage and why should that stop? Unless there is a serious conspiracy between media outlets, hedge funds, etc. to promote Litecoin or any other altcoin in a coordinated fashion, why would any of them take over from Bitcoin now? We've heard the ugly news, the controversy, the electricity required, etc. It doesn't matter. Bitcoin has sailed through, resiliant as ever.

I cannot tell you exactly why it is so resiliant, but all the signs are there. Personally I think that since 2008, the worst recession for nearly 100 years, the feeling and mental undercurrent - of resentment towards governments, but also the desire to break out of hopelessness and also, to put it bluntly, greed - has grown incredibly strong, and some of this has been chanelled into Bitcoin. And there is so much more of that feeling left! This is regardless of the fact that Bitcoin is really an ingenious technology and a superb payments system. It is just what is needed for the 21st century.

Why do you think Bitcoin has kept going until now, despite the crashes, corruption, controversy, etc. ?

One thing important to remember as well, MatTheCat, is that after so many weeks of volatility the dreams really do swing both ways:

Some are dreaming of the long-term and some are dreaming (just as much) about grabbing coins at $300 right now: the "bargain-crash-of-a-lifetime-equalling-a-doubling-of-money-as-soon-as-the-bounce-comes-back!" dream.

I honestly believe we are now completing the move out of a period of time (bubble pop) in which the latter dream did have a few chances of becoming reality; it's time now to look at making an investment for a year minimum. It will still be good in my opinion, even buying at these prices! Again just look at the price after the previous bubble - supported much higher than ever before on lower volume than before. It's the norm for Bitcoin, and something hard for people to get their heads around because it is a new phenomenon that has not got a historical equivalent (not the same as tulip bulbs, not the same as fiat currency, not the same as shares in a company, etc.). By getting involved we are walking an extremely exciting line into unchartered territory, all the while knowing that so far so good, and that there is no good reason to panic (because even when everybody does things still get back to normal incredibly quickly).

Bitcoin has proven itself extremely resiliant. That's something you can rely on in my opinion. "Global blackout", "Global ban", "Global cash out", etc. are not realistic issues. They certainly sound bad, but the chances really are very, very small. Bitcoin does have a host of more realistic, smaller problems, but at the present time these are nothing more unusual than the day-to-day problems that people or companies might face such as: "How will I classify this income on my tax return?", "How can I ride a bike when I've never done it before", etc. Really, the big questions to do with survival have already been answered. Think about it.

If you disagree with anything I've said I'd love to hear why.

If we are talking short term - several weeks - then of course bad news from China would have a dampening effect. But not as much as before.

Things are beginning to show signs of progress in terms of "de-coupling" from China, but it's not done yet.

But to go back to my Facebook example (new thread) - the panic-sellers have just got to think realistically. Even if China went out 100% (which I think is unlikely) Bitcoin has vast spaces in which to grow much, much bigger. People need to Wake up to that.

It also doesn't help that those who badly want back in at half the current price will wave the China flag without hesitation or any concern for balanced argument.

I agree let's go back to "china follows". Well wipe the slate clean starring with another crash into the $400s and see where that leads.
[/quote]

Whatever it takes but its time to move on mentally ASAP.

The longer the Bitcoin community in America, Europe, etc. keeps their eyes glued on China the more drawn out the situation will be. The situation is very different in China and it is ridiculous to maintain this "China leads" attitude. Up until October this year it was not "China leads" but "China follows", and people should revert to this attitude (non-chauvinistic, just common sense relating to Bitcoin) straight away. Be brave for crying out loud and stand on your own two patriotic feet! (Ahem) Was this what Bitcoin was meant to be about? China?

There are already the first signs that we are becoming resistant the China effect - nourish these shoots of hope and dash the FUD on the rocks, people!

Think about Facebook: just because it's banned in China should we all close our Facebook accounts? (Erm... maybe that wasn't the best example)

But seriously, get back to thinking about how amazingly far Bitcoin has come - no one thought it possible - and how far it still has to go in so many places all over the world.

Thank you... Thank you...

Look at the volume for the April bubble and the volume for this one... I think a rise on the current volume is the closest thing we get to stability - and it's still a very fast rise by all standards.

If you had much more volume then it's just back to boom and bust. I think many people here have developed a tolerance to the roller coaster and can't get high of something that might only grow 500% next year!

Just a badly-researched piece of bullshit I'm afraid.

"Note that the more “optimistic” you are about BitCoin, presumably you should also be more optimistic about its future competitors too."

I must say I have really noticed the Bitcoin bulls jumping up and down with excitement about all the altcoins that come out weekly.  

But it would be quite something if you were right 100% of the time 

+1

It's bears vs newcomers, of whom there are quite a few lining up now.

It happened already nearly two weeks ago. I advise you to try to accept that and catch up with where we are now.

January is traditionally bullish in Bitcoin and generally.

There is evidence that the prices on Gox, Stamp etc. are becoming more resistant to Chinese news. According to another member here yesterday there was some dumping on a Chinese exchange but this was not followed by the western exchanges. People are now very used to the idea that Bitcoin is limited in China and with everyone looking to 31 January as a telling moment for China, I believe it will be a bit of a non-event when the day comes.

Anyway according to historical figures I think that we are roughly at the right price for Bitcoin today (should be around $765-$775) and that the next few months are going to be bullish (for Bitcoin meaning up and down but in an overall upwards direction).