A week ago I posted the chart below, minus the yellow cross (which shows roughly where we are today).
As I proposed in the OP of this thread, the analyst Hellork was not able correctly to compute into his models, as detailed and technical as they were, the strong positive change in Bitcoin market sentiment, the game of catch up being played by exchanges as they deal with increased interest, and importantly the powerful force that Hodlers are exerting on the market. Beating his odds of 100:1 we broke up as indicated by the red line on the chart, and then fell back and consolidated to just above green line. We have not come even close to the capitulation he proposed as being much more likely.
If you look carefully at today's charts with a week of fresh data you will see that we are following almost exactly the slight curve towards sideways movement, proposed in the OP a week ago.
I believe that this trajectory will continue to progress as proposed.
But... Over the next few days we may break up into a rally as we did last weekend, travelling a similar distance upwards – past $1,000 and then losing momentum just as we did then. Yet again, in this situation, do not panic. Just as before, look for a measured retracement to the green trend line.
A recent post on this forum linked to an article at
http://www.wallstreetcrypto.com/. Setting aside for a moment the preliminary subject of the article entitled “Was it Zynga? January in Depth” – news and its effect or lack of on the market – the analyst posted a chart showing what he calls a “Crash Zone”. Similar to Hellork before him, he posits that when we reach this area we will likely experience a large crash. He does include a caveat: “without a major catalyst”. I believe that the market sentiment today – what most professional traders are in fact trying to read from past data with whatever tools they use – is already sufficient to keep the price steady around the green trend line on my chart despite spikes up and retracements on the way. On the website I made a comment to the author of the article, Alpha FourNineTwo, asking for the odds he would give on his model's success, but the comment has not yet appeared.
To go back to my chart... As we come towards the end of the month, the curve will begin becoming steeper again and this time we will break $1,000 definitively. This will happen just before or at the time of the New York Department of Financial Services Bitcoin hearing on 28 and 29 January.
It is crucial to realise the depth of the change in market sentiment, due to the perception that Bitcoin has an almost certain future now in the mainstream and that this future is coming fast, a perception that did not exist after any previous bubble. This psychological change is extremely significant. Of course it is not as powerfully obvious as the adrenalin rush (choo choo!) during the incredible run ups in price as a bubble expands exponentially, but this brand new post-bubble market sentiment is what is causing Bitcoin to carry on floating lazily, miles above previous prices, well out of the reach of those who still believe or hope that a final crash is imminent.
Have a nice weekend and good luck to all of you!
Note: no geometry, mathematics, Calculus or triangles were used to create this report. Everything above and in the OP is based on common sense.
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