A couple weeks ago all the indicators on the daily chart were still up and there was still a clear trendline intact which led to a triangle breakout.
I think it was 31 December. I don't know if that was when you were on holiday, remember? No-one would call it either way. That was clear. I think the majority had no confidence in the trend. |
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I agree with most of your points about trading vs investing. They are different mindsets.
I don't agree that an inexperienced trader/investor is somehow able to accurately judge the fundamentals of any commodity/stock/currency and turn that into an accurate price target. Bitcoin is especially difficult to do fundamental analysis on because there aren't any direct comparisons to it that have already matured. I have a strong feeling that bitcoin is going to become widely adopted and will see lots more upside. I wouldn't feel comfortable investing based on that feeling though... it's not fundamental analysis.
Agreed. But in this case fundamental analysis then has to mean working with what you've got. Still certainly very do-able, even if you end up with a set of results that put together cannot be precisely compared to anything that exists today!
The cool thing about bitcoin exchanges is that they only charge a percentage fee per trade and no flat fee per transaction (like stock brokers do). That means you could potentially trade with an account worth $10 and see how much you could increase it in percentage terms and it would be very similar to how you'd trade a $10,000 account. Newbies would have a pretty easy path to learning without big risks.
New people... If you want to trade take this advice! |
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Most of the "green shoots" is being created by a bot buying around 10-19 btc every 8 minutes. Last time it was turned on it ran for weeks, I believe it was turned on yesterday.
The market is made up of human beings, machines and all sorts! Everything has to be taken into account. |
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I keep hearing "Green Shoots" and "microcosmic" trends. If you want to talk about TA you may want to have a look at babypips, they have a great school for analysis http://www.babypips.com/school. I'd recommend you have a look. Also I'd recommend zooming out on your charts. 1 minute charts are too narrow. Zoom out, 15m minimum, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily. This. Assuming there even is more volume on the upside (it's unclear), you would have to wait for an actual price movement anyways to confirm. If the volume isn't significant enough to move price, it isn't significant enough to be a reliable indicator. That makes this analysis very very close to pointless. More significant than you think in the market today, with the positive sentiment and the record level of hodling going on. If the market is going sideways - I mean really straight - then the minute level can give you a clue as to sentiment in this way, even if the price doesn't move. The reason it doesn't move is because there is a sell wall. The small buys are nibbling that wall. But there are still more buys than sells. That's market sentiment. Thinking on this level is going to become more useful as time goes on because there are going to be increasing numbers of small buyers - minnows - and together they will be a force to be reckoned with. A couple of weeks back the market was going sideways. People were looking to the direction of the break but if I remember correctly no-one called it clearly - everyone saying it was too close to call. But I saw a significant majority of these small buys on the Gox minute scale, eating at a large wall. It looked quite clear that it was only a matter of time before this pressure had an effect. After a couple of hours the wall was gone and when the price started moving up, people piled in. |
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Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.
This is interesting and I think a lot of people around these forums agree with you. The thing to remember though is that buy and hold is a great strategy until it's not. I don't think it's wise to assume that previous growth in the price of bitcoin is going to continue forever. Unfortunately, new investors in almost every new raging bull market make the same assumption. Now that said, I would think you're probably safe as of now because there's still quite a bit more upside left to the market (in my opinion). I think about it like this... who lost money in the 2009 stock market crash? Or the .com bubble? Or the 1929 Black Friday crash? Lost significant long term, life changing money in the form of unrealized gains that turn into huge losses? It's always buy and hold investors that take the brunt of those losses. Swing/day traders might actually make huge profits on those same days. So sometimes the safe strategy isn't so safe when the market conditions suddenly switch on you. Short term investors have the ability to adjust to rapidly changing conditions where investors following the buy and hold strategy will be much slower to respond. You're on the right track here with your words but there's something you're not making clear enough. This is not about two types of "trading"; this is about "trading" and "investing". Let's say "trading" means aiming to make money from daily/weekly trends. "Investing" means looking at the fundamentals and judging whether there is more growth to happen over the long-term. Actually when it really comes down to fundamentals such as the balance sheet, the technology, the potential untapped markets, etc. against the tools used for trading such as Fibonacci retracement, triangles, etc., "investing" and "trading" (as described above) are two very different things, and generally-speaking they are seen as such across the markets today. For any newb coming here trading is dangerous. For quite a few it is the first time they have had access to exchanges, charts, etc. With the benefit of hindsight they think it's easy to predict things and double your money in days. They also get swayed by the madness in here. And they get burned straight away! Overall the fundamentals of Bitcoin look very good right now. If it wasn't for these, notably for example (after looking at the technology itself) the huge potential for adoption (the market is no-where near saturation), then far fewer people, myself included, would be advising investing. For many of those coming here it provides a rare opportunity to be able freely to invest in the equivalent of a promising tech start up, something they would not be able to do elsewhere. For experienced traders who are looking at it from a daily perspective, Bitcoin is simply another set of charts and data - another challenge to decipher. But would a pure trader be winning over a hodler at this early stage? I think for the vast majority investing will still be the most profitable course of action, and certainly the wisest, for 2014. |
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Hodl has several advantages.
You forgot to mention that there are no exchange fees for holding. Who cares about exchange fees? If you're profiting, then it's irrelevant. I would gladly pay 25BTC for the 150BTC of profit I've taken, over and over and over again. What is this, a bulls only support group? Who are you trying to convince?  There's a question mark, but it's more of a statement...  It was just two simple questions of if this is like an AA support group and who he was trying to convince!?!??! Himself?? I didn't come in here yelling "BEAR BEAR BEAR"! It seems to me, that every thread that pops up explaining why you're holding, is just fishing for approval. Trying to rationalize an irrational behavior. It sounds like the "acceptance" stage of grief when you're about to die. Tell me some good reasons to buy at whatever price and hold until it's worthless! Why is that such a good strategy? ...and "Because it has only ever gone up" is an unacceptable answer. What are your goals? Holding on the way down won't make you be able to buy more goods (less purchasing power). Fiat profits? Again, holding in an obvious down trend is a terrible way to preserve capital. I'm guessing it's greed! We all have it, but the HODLers ooze it from every orifice. Rational traders have greed too, sure, but they don't let it dilute their perception of a bad decision (aka delusion). Whoa, that felt good!Thanks, and have a nice day! ~BEAR Yeah you must be getting seriously tense... tense and anxious. All that waiting. We feel for you man. Come in here and yell anytime you like. You can even cry if you want. We're here for you buddy.  |
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Nice list. I hope Wrinkelvoss ETF happens this year. I hope Wallstreet investors start getting in this year. I also hope for more big players adopting bitcoin (Netflix, Amazon, Twitter, Newegg, Starbucks, Walmart, etc). And I hope there's at least a few countries that spark a bullish trend in bitcoin like China did on November (when they used to be our friends  ) I was told there was a moon out there somewhere, haven't heard from it in a while... c'mon people lets make it happen!  Newegg before the end of the month I believe. You heard it here first!  All with bitpay. Lot's of coins to be liquidated. Great year to buy cheap coins. What do you need cheap coins for anyway Branson? You've got plenty of fiat. Don't be a miser! |
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I'm a holder of BTC and LTC... but I do like to participate in movements that I can almost predict and increase my holdings.
For example... When BTC went up to $950 a week ago, there was almost no reason for that to happen given the fear of China's Jan 31st deadline, and it is obvious that the $1000 mark is where many traders who have been holding are gonna sell and take profits.
So I went to fiat when it reached around $930-940. Buying back in right now around $806 and gaining more BTC. It may keep going down past $800, but I don't care... I'm just going to hold it until it goes back again. The price can go either direction on Jan 31st... I'm willing to bet nothing significant will happen on the 31st (friday), but we will probably another dip on Feb 3rd (monday). But I'm just not gonna worry about it and hold until Summer.
Every time it goes close to $1000 or even $1200, without some significant happening, its a good time to fall back to fiat and buy at a lower price during the correlation. Every time the price is around $800, it's a great time to buy. I have just been following this simple strategy
Support at 800... straight from the horse's mouth! |
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What's with the yellow photoshopped cartoon car? Tee hee! |
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I had a strange dream last night. I was visiting some sensitive who was to give me hints about the future. I asked her about Bitcoin and she said that 2014 is going to be a good year for Bitcoin but 2015 will be the year when shit hits the fan. By that it was meant that the banking system will crumble into dust and all kinds of stuff will happen. Anyway, 2015 is pretty far away right now so who cares So 2015 is going to be the really big year then! |
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Nice list. I hope Wrinkelvoss ETF happens this year. I hope Wallstreet investors start getting in this year. I also hope for more big players adopting bitcoin (Netflix, Amazon, Twitter, Newegg, Starbucks, Walmart, etc). And I hope there's at least a few countries that spark a bullish trend in bitcoin like China did on November (when they used to be our friends ) I was told there was a moon out there somewhere, haven't heard from it in a while... c'mon people lets make it happen! Newegg before the end of the month I believe. You heard it here first! |
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Thank you very much for your reply. I appreciate your sincerity.
You're right about the necessity for prediction. If you can't make a forecast then what's the point?
Speaking with hindsight is facile. Too much also leads to thinking that it's dead easy to predict the market. That's why so many newbs dabbling in day trading lose money. Peaks and troughs are so easy to spot when they've happened.
Good luck with the site and keep it up. Things are moving fast and you should pick up a growing crowd in no time.
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Weak hands. Did nobody tell them "CCMF"?  |
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How come all FUD-spreaders are still hodling .... SELL SELL SELL They haven't got any Bitcoins! They are full-fiat! full-fiat is the power. The window of opportunity will start closing soon. - The US, UK and other massive economies are scrambling to make a comfortable and official place for Bitcoin in their respective countries. - Bitcoin is a super-streamlined 21st century currency that works with digital networks in a far superior way than current banking and credit card systems. Unless we are going to pack up the Internet and regress then it is going to keep spreading very quickly. - Bitcoin is fixed. The supply cannot be increased. Put these three things together. Bitcoin is going to massively outperform fiat over the next several years at least. |
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Thanks for your approvement What continues to amaze me, I mean really amaze me, is that so many people here apparently can't see these things. it does surprise me as well. To many People are talking and writing about my NO-GO-WORDS: chrash bubble collapse end-game doom Rocket Moon Oort cloud and to many are very shortsighted I hope everyone tries to use their own common sense when looking at Bitcoin and what will happen this year, and not rely on the madness they find here! But I must admit to getting somewhat carried away by all the "CCMF" when things get going though! It's irresistable! |
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@ T.Stuart since you made a good comment on the Situation in/from China I think it is up now for a comment about FBI/FED-SR auction.because I think it was great News regarding the legal-implications: After selling the SR-Coins the USA says:thanks american citizens for buying the Coins off our Hands .But now they are completely useless,you cannot trade them
Would this be realistic ? When the goverment sells bitcoins for FIAT money, thois would be some kind of ultimative legitimation. Or does the goverment auction seized drugs or guns? No! And does it auction things whose status is unclear?
-> no! Since there is an auction of the seized Coins the exchanges won`t be affected and the price remains at least stable. And here another important jugdement: Judge Orders CoinLab to Give Bitcoin to Bitvestment http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/11/07/judge-orders-coinlab-to-pay-up-in-bitcoin/So I think the legalisation of bitcoin is well going on and this is a very important and huge issue What do you, T.Stuart, think about this? I concur wholeheartedly with these points! What continues to amaze me, I mean really amaze me, is that so many people here apparently can't see these things. I think quite a significant few still believe that Bitcoin is going to be banned in the US. I guess it takes time for things to seep in, as a year or two ago that a US ban appeared to be on the cards. What is happening now is that government advisors, think tanks, etc. not just in the US but in the UK and other countries, are receiving information that is leading them to conclude that Bitcoin is just tipping right now into an extremely viral situation, and they are scrambling to make sure that they benefit from this. Just like the Chinese government understands that Bitcoin is on the verge of going viral in China, and they are moving quickly to control it in a tighter way (but I believe they will allow it to continue for the foreseeable future). Two approaches to the same understanding - things are going to move fast. |
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