http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/01/17/uk-bows-to-pressure-likely-to-reverse-course-on-taxation-of-bitcoin-will-the-us-be-next/

“… Indications are the HMRC would also make Bitcoin subject to the capital gains tax (CGT) but allow an exemption for those who hold onto them for more than a year (the equivalent of an extremely, extremely favorable long term capital gains rate). Other taxes would likely not apply.”

Love it, just love it!!!

The UK is going to reward HODLERS handsomely!!!  Ha ha ha!   

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/01/17/uk-bows-to-pressure-likely-to-reverse-course-on-taxation-of-bitcoin-will-the-us-be-next/

“… Indications are the HMRC would also make Bitcoin subject to the capital gains tax (CGT) but allow an exemption for those who hold onto them for more than a year (the equivalent of an extremely, extremely favorable long term capital gains rate). Other taxes would likely not apply.”

Love it, just love it!!!

The UK is going to reward HODLERS handsomely!!!  Ha ha ha!   

Did someone create a troll bot because the number of newbs all claiming low-hundred prices is staggering! 

The opposite will happen, sadly for you and your ridiculous attempt to cause panic, OP.

At the end of this month there will be more excited press around the New York hearing.

Not that I enjoy quoting myself (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397534.20) but to make the point:

"Think about it. With less than two weeks until 31 January, don't you think that any sensible Chinese person wishing to throw in the towel and cash in would have already at least sold their Bitcoins? I mean, how long does it take to withdraw money from the exchanges over there? If it is anything like over “here” then usually 5-10 working days in the best cases. And with the apparent rush to withdraw, wouldn't a few prudent Chinese whales have dumped already to get to the front of the queue?"

The 31 January is a smokescreen. People will wake up to that over the next few days.

Yeah right - if Bitcoin gets banned in the whole world then I reckon around $25 per coin is the right value. 

I agree wholeheartedly that weaning yourself off thinking always in fiat would be great - but for many people coming into the game and for most in the game (me included) it starts with thinking in fiat terms! So addressing the issues in this way is going to strike a chord with most! 

Forget it man. It's a troll account - check his posts.

Thank you for this sensible message!

A word to new people thinking of trying their hand at trading: with hindsight everything looks easy.

I have lost track of how many short-term predictions from experts and traders have been wrong - I would say certainly the majority I have seen here. Many people have lost a lot of money trying to double their money quickly, rather than simply investing in the fundamentals and waiting for extraordinarily good profits a year or two down the line.

Unless you have money to burn or a sixth sense, do not day-trade with Bitcoin. Investing for the long-term has proven to be far more profitable for most.

No crash is coming. You're thinking in pre-2014 terms. Market sentiment is transformed now. Any selling in the future will happen slowly and deliberately as you can see from the past few weeks, and using previous crash data to calculate lows will fail. 

Picking up from last week...

Looking at today's prices, we can see that after another week (week 2) of data we have been following the green trend line proposed in the OP closely, with the tendency to sideways movement playing out as predicted. The second yellow cross marks where we are today.

When I resumed our progress last week I made the point of saying that we might break back up into a rally and then fall back again to around the green trend, which we did.

Last week's post also made the following point:

“As we come towards the end of the month, the curve will begin becoming steeper again and this time we will break $1,000 definitively. This will happen just before or at the time of the New York Department of Financial Services Bitcoin hearing on 28 and 29 January.”

Hovering under $1,000

When I made the first post in this series on 3 January, I was asked about the shape of the proposed trend.

The current sideways movement reflects two things:

1. The psychological wall of $1,000.

2. The wait for the Chinese New Year.

$1,000

Although we are now seeing the first indisputable evidence of Bitcoin's move into the mainstream and of the beginning of mass-adoption, the barrier of $1,000 holds a certain power.

The Chinese New Year 31 January doomsday scenario

For several weeks now the forum has been awash with claims that come 31 January, we will see a mega-crash due to various factors including the Chinese dumping their Bitcoins and withdrawing their money from exchanges en masse.

A lot of people have been building up reserves of fiat to cash in on the panic sell they imagine will happen.

But think about it. With less than two weeks until 31 January, don't you think that any sensible Chinese person wishing to throw in the towel and cash in would have already at least sold their Bitcoins? I mean, how long does it take to withdraw money from the exchanges over there? If it is anything like over “here” then usually 5-10 working days in the best cases. And with the apparent rush to withdraw, wouldn't a few prudent Chinese whales have dumped already to get to the front of the queue?

The Chinese scenario is just a smokescreen. Chinese Bitcoiners are enthusiastic. They are also not doing anything illegal. The market for Bitcoin is going to continue in China and despite the FUD you read here, of all the official statements coming from the government in China none have claimed otherwise.

As it becomes clear over the following days that there is going to be no such mega-crash, those waiting for cheap coins will start to get nervous.

End of January

The pressure from China is keeping the price suppressed, and yet the behaviour of the market post China-bubble is incredible, with Bitcoins commanding a supported high premium. The change in market sentiment is palpable; we all know that over the days and weeks and months to come Bitcoin will keep exploding into the mainstream. Within the next few days we are going to see more large businesses adopt Bitcoin, decisions from the world's governments, and conferences taking place including the New York hearing. And importantly, as the Chinese smoke clears the market will lift again.

Holders

Over the past weeks we have not seen any panic selling. Whatever bad news has come out has only resulted in small-scale, measured sell-offs. Hodlers are controlling the market now. They know that waiting for the weeks to pass as 2014 unfolds is going to be very well worth it. It makes sense to sit back and relax now – no need for the stress of trying to trade unreliable intra-day trends.

In short, time has proven that investing in Bitcoin for the long-term rather than trying to ride the waves up and down is by far the most profitable strategy. But today, at this very moment at the outset of 2014, a potential investor has not only the security of past data on which to base their decision to buy and hold, but also diverse evidence of vast growth to come in 2014, adding a hugely significant extra layer of security.

This has caused the biggest change in market sentiment since the beginning of Bitcoin. This is what is being reflected today in the charts, and what I showed with my trend line two weeks ago.

EDIT: Just to point out the dangers of listening to TA experts on here, so far my chart has soundly beaten the predictions of at least 3 independent experts using all kinds of intricate methods.

Yeah but last time I did that analysis we moved up almost straight away!

It is something to look at only in periods of stagnant sideways movement.

It's the volume bars I'm looking at not the candlesticks.

Thanks for the link!

More green shoots!

As Gox goes sideways, zoom in on the minute scale.



What do you see at the volume level? A nice majority of green shoots!

Why don't they make the price move upwards? Because of the ask wall on Gox.

But what they do suggest is that buying pressure is greater than selling pressure on a microcosmic scale.

Last time I called out this indicator we moved into a significant uptrend around an hour later.

Could I ask, did you create your account solely to come and spread FUD or do you have an ulterior motive that has not yet become apparent? 

MatTheCat you remind me of this guy

Earlier. If the Chinese were en masse going to take money out of their exchanges they would have already started doing it. You wouldn't put your withdrawal order in on 30 January would you?
I think a lot of people have money on the sidelines specifically for this situation. As it becomes clear that nothing is happening and without any other doomsday-scenario to point to, many will become concerned (and I think rightly so) that the price is going to float higher.

To be fair MAbtc did add this possibility as an EDIT.
Over the past few weeks this has become very clear: this "bubble" tail-end will play out proportionally higher than previous tail ends. Market sentiment is obviously underpinned now by the idea of the move into mainstream acceptance. This is being reflected in the charts and price movements: the smaller, less-hurried selling periods in comparison with quicker, slightly steeper buying periods. Hodlers are running the show now: after all, what's so difficult about waiting at least few weeks or months when it looks like there is so much in store for 2014.

Yeah, but while they are telling you this you are thinking that it's as if you were both speaking a totally different language!