Stop spreading FUD. There was no hack or some other strange thing, it was just a huge market maker bot burning some money to clear and reshape his range of the orderbook:  This caused a spike in traffic and maybe killed the http API. The websocket API was working all the time (60s lag though). Very interesting. So, these days a 800btc trade kills the mtgox api, but back in april/may on those days with the 200,000btc volume - well then it was just fine? Please understand that the market pscyhology is changing fast - much faster than the TA will tell you alone. In fact I think being a TA expert right now is a positive hindrance because you've got all the more triangles and new moons to get out of your vision before you can see clearly. If you realise this now TERA then you still have the chance to ride happy with your average Joe here. |
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A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.
Never ever? Never ever ever.
I'm seeing massive negative sentiment. Yeah, I know the graphs are looking scary, but with this much gloom, I'm wondering if it might be overdone a little bit. What gloom are you referring to? To me it seems the sentiment on the forum is "omg wall street and new commericial adoption. btc straight to the moon gagnam style" I wouldn't say that + $20 / +30 per day is gangnam style, but it certainly is very positive, very rewarding, very steady and... very normal according to the log scale... growth. |
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If we compare the china-bubble to the april bubble, we see some similarities:
After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trand down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.
Just judging by the technical analysis I see, and based on the data coming in from sources from China and such, we're definitely in a downtrend that will probably certainly last between 3 months and 18 months and will go at least as low as the last double channel triple shoulder top a few months ago, just following the trend lines from the 2-3 day moving average oscillator. That means the price will likely go at least to $78, before rebounding to new ATHs in 2018. There is black swan chance the price will follow the more dramatic downtrend indicated by the exponential channel and we could see prices retest $2. I'm really looking forward to this, other people's capitulation equals further consolidation for those who do not blind themselves to the unfurling reality. We shall see the true depth of the newly invested's levels of belief as the year(s) roll on. Giving yourself a few years for a downtrend seems like a sensible analysis to me!  |
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Mine is not TA - it is common sense! That's the beauty - everyone has it. And it's starting to become more and more prevalent among Bitcoin investors and speculators. Over and out! Goodnight! (really this time!) |
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for the last 10 months there has been a noticable trend of merchants selling off coin back into FIAT. and this month is no difference, its just yet another first week of the month volatile period.
do not panic, and don't start fud about bitcoin dying this month. atleast get rid of your sheepish thoughts to panic and sell off at a loss. hold strong onto your bitcoins, never sell at a loss.
again any price drop this week is expected, and will recover.
do not be a panic sheep
I second that! Wake up and realise what this is and don't get panicked if others do. |
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Once the supply/demand reaches equilibrium with high volumes (maximum adoption), the price will be finally much more stable. (not expecting to increase anymore)
the hilarious thing is that once this has happened and the price discovery phase is over, the speculators will exit the market in troves. the ones that stay will short, and we will see the first real bear market in bitcoin history, The Great Correction.  The Great Correction? With your shades on it seems like you've been waiting for this for a while! i just hope i live to see the day. for the time being the infinite bullrun has been loads of fun, but i expect that the top of this massive curve will be the biggest bubble yet! it's just exciting in general to think about the future of bitcoin in a real sense... remembering that when i first came here it was a niche project, not a fledgling payment system  thinking about the future reminds me of just how far we've come in the past two years and it blows my mind! speaking of which, i once had 200 bitcoins (when they were $5 apiece of course). if only i had hodled.... --arepo It's that future which is just starting to look and feel like a feasible reality |
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I love these threads. Seeing a lot of similarities in forum sentiment 12/9-12/10 and 1/5-1/6. Just saying.  The past is the past! We are going to do things a little different now! I do find all this rubbing up and down around $1000 very interesting. Seems like the number is getting firmly cemented in the collective psyche. I'm telling you this is going to be a baseline within days. |
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In logarithms, $1000-$3200 takes half the time of a move from $1000 to $10000. $1000-$2000 takes 30% of the time. So expect to be in the $1000s for a while and then to more quickly move once we get past $5000.
My totally unprofessional market psychology bullshit assessment is that we're going to fight around $1000 for a while because there were a lot of people getting in around and above that nice round USD number and a lot of those people got their first real lesson in markets/panic/capitulation recently and a lot of them probably want to get the fuck out because bitcoin is still too risky for them. LOL'd hard... this is so true Hey can you guys slow down your trolling - I can't keep up ! |
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Once the supply/demand reaches equilibrium with high volumes (maximum adoption), the price will be finally much more stable. (not expecting to increase anymore)
the hilarious thing is that once this has happened and the price discovery phase is over, the speculators will exit the market in troves. the ones that stay will short, and we will see the first real bear market in bitcoin history, The Great Correction. --arepo The Great Correction? With your shades on it seems like you've been waiting for this for a while! |
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you remind me of me when i first started watching bitcoin and posting here. this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.
spoilers: we were not on our way up, and $10 didn't happen for about another half a year --arepo He he he! We shall see! |
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Just had a thought... Has anyone pointed out just how spectacular last weekend was since it happened (I know not even 24 hours but that can be a long time in Bitcoin  )? Do you know what surprised me? It's so easy to get into the frame of mind of: “Weekends are quiet” “Weekends are when the price goes down” “Weekends are when everyone's run out of money on the exchanges” etc. etc. etc. and all those other leaps to conclusions we all make. I'd just like to point out that last one there: “Weekends are when everyone's run out of money on the exchanges”... Oh?... Ho... Ho ho ho... ha ha... HA HA HA HA!!! LOL Wow! If you were thinking that last one then boy were you surprised this weekend eh? The fact is, there is money, a whole lot of money, waiting just below to snap up as many Bitcoins as possible. And we are at a tipping point now. Quite clearly those below feel like they have less time on their hands than those above. That's why the price has been rising so steadily for weeks. Simple really. So just remember when everything looks so sleepy – there is a mountain of fiat growing below, and it's growing bigger by the day! Goodnight boys and girls!  |
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Is this a downtrend or just a correction?
Personally, I believe we will see this downtrend in the next weeks, until we reach the 500 USD levels.
If we compare the china-bubble to the april-bubble, we see some similarities:
After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trend down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.
Thoughts?
So after the Juni11 bubble it took nearly 2 years to reach that level again(30$). After the april13 bubble it took 6 months to reach that level again(250$). And now, how long will it take to see the level of the november bubble again (1200$)? 24 months, 6 month, 1.5month? I like that forecasts ("eehh, last time it was 6month, so now it will be 6 month again") Around 1.5 months then.... Oh golly! Everything fits so perfectly!  Thanks for that! |
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Who's from Belgium here?
I'm trying to remember. It came up in a beer discussion a while back. The Belgian was pimping his own country's brews and dissing everybody else's, especially Heineken. I have to say that I think in this case the Belgian is correct! A bit ironic for me though as I live in Belgium but don't drink. They put a lot of effort into their beer here. I think that around the world there are only 7 genuine monastic beer distilleries - and 6 of them are in Belgium. It's part of a religion to them! It was me! And actually I said there are plenty of good beers in other countries, but comon, there's no way you can defend Heineken :-D. Oh and I'm not a lover of Pils in the first place. Oh, I remember that one... I took the position that Belgian beer is akin to raw sewage (with more malty overtones, perhaps). However, in the meantime I had to revise my position a bit... as part of an accident that I don't want to talk about, I recently ingested a moderately large amount of raw sewage. That was the exact moment when I realized the grave injustice I did to raw sewage by comparing it to Belgian beer earlier. OOOOOoooooohhhhhh! |
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When 'Loaded" spoke last the time before last, a crash happened within 48 hours. He spoke again 12 hours ago.
This bet isn't as clear cut as your might think.
But then again listening to 'Loaded' the last time, lost me all of my coins.
normally loaded is rather bullish. Didnt find his last post though. Also be aware that Loaded needs to buy coins for people who come to him to invest. |
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I'll do it if you want. Address down there ---v
Suggest coinabul deposits first as he's called the bet. Terms will have to be properly defined (48 hours from when)
If he still wants to bet vs me, i would take you as an escrow. Richy-T? Are you officially going to be our escrow then? Count me in if you are. Please send 1 BTC to Richy-T for me Coinbull, when he confirms. Will do. TheCoinBull, please note who you are depositing against when you do. Everyone, please let me know which address you are depositing from. Anyone not TheCoinBull, you will be betting against him. I reserve the right to refund everyone their money and declare the whole thing null-and-void if things look funky (I see no reason they should be, the terms of the bet look straightforward to me). Thanks for this. I would prefer - and I think the others will back me up on this - that you receive TheCoinBull's money first. Please confirm when this has happened. |
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It was me! And actually I said there are plenty of good beers in other countries, but comon, there's no way you can defend Heineken :-D. Oh and I'm not a lover of Pils in the first place.
Hi! Where are you from? Brussels? |
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Is it? Isn't it?
I dont fkn know. All I have got to go on is 2nd rate rumours and 3rd rate corporate media reports. But if it is true, then it is bad. It has to be bad. It can't possibly be anything other than bad.....if it were to be true.
Well honestly I don't know for sure either, but it sounds like worst case scenario the Chinese exchanges are shut down. However, I don't think this will happen. It will simply be much harder to get CNY in and out of exchanges. In any event, it is wealthy Chinese investing in Bitcoin. Not being able to liquidate through a domestic bank isn't a huge deal to them. The world is a big place and it makes sense to own a chunk of something that could appreciate dramatically in the future. You know purely from a cold-hearted perspective sometimes I think it would be good for the Bitcoin market if the exchanges did just shut down totally - a clean break - as then there would be no more psychological drama. I really believe Bitcoin would go up super-steady (as opposed to just very steady ) if this happened. |
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Who's from Belgium here?
I'm trying to remember. It came up in a beer discussion a while back. The Belgian was pimping his own country's brews and dissing everybody else's, especially Heineken. I have to say that I think in this case the Belgian is correct! A bit ironic for me though as I live in Belgium but don't drink. They put a lot of effort into their beer here. I think that around the world there are only 7 genuine monastic beer distilleries - and 6 of them are in Belgium. It's part of a religion to them! |
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Just seen the bet. I am also in if possible. When is the time up?
I would say approx 46 hours or something? Yeah the more the better I'm in as well. 1BTC to Richy_T? Yes but wait for confirmation that he has Coinbull's funds! Coinbull this list is starting to run away! Put a limit on this! |
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Just seen the bet. I am also in if possible. When is the time up?
I would say approx 46 hours or something? Yeah the more the better Coinbull it is time for you to make a list of all those you are going up against, with it clear that it is 1 BTC per person. Then send the total to Richy-T and tell us you have done so. Then we need confirmation from him and we will do our side of the deal. |
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