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1841  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 01:02:07 PM
So we rise on weekends and dip on start of the week. What is this sorcery?

Look at the sell walls popping up and disappearing again on Stamp. Someone is trying to pressure things down. If it causes a panic sell I predict a swift buy up of all lost coins.
1842  Economy / Speculation / Re: I AM HODLING on: January 07, 2014, 12:57:34 PM
I'm going to stop hodling 1 btc.  A friend of mine is offering to sell me an M1 garand for $800.  Can't pass it up.  Sorry hodlers, i've found my limit. Smiley

Ask him to accept Bitcoin! This could be Hodling in the most altruistic sense of the term - Hodling to support the Bitcoin economy!!  Smiley

I'm actively trying to get him to accept bitcoins (he owns a pawn shop).  I've piqued his curiosity, but not enough just yet it would seem.  I've even told him about bitpay!  Smiley  He's getting closer, just not yet Smiley

By the way at some point soon I will start a thread on things people buy every day with Bitcoin.

I now pay for My mobile phone Internet, SMS & calls using BTC. See my signature for details( i am none affiliated, i just think it's cool).


Thanks!  Smiley
1843  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 07, 2014, 12:34:24 PM
s'all about natural systems  Wink

true that Wink

Quote
... I think most will be waiting to buy lower or when it's a bit more stable....

yes, but will anyone be selling? that is the key. if the HODLers hold and the fearful watch, then we will consolidate sideways and not slip into a bear market. the steady underlying buying pressure will buoy us along with the trend, and we will reach Sunday's peak in a couple of days. we need to see some renewed selling pressure today to break us out of this consolidation pattern and into a real mid-term correction bear market for those who want coins!

--arepo

Sorry, couldn't resist!  Cheesy
1844  Economy / Speculation / Re: Look at that wall on Stamp! on: January 07, 2014, 12:32:37 PM
Don't be shaken by this silly behaviour!  Smiley
1845  Economy / Speculation / Look at that wall on Stamp! on: January 07, 2014, 12:29:50 PM
Someone, for whatever reason, is desperate to keep the price down on Stamp! Incredible stuff!

Looking for cheaper coins, whoever you are?

Wow.

EDIT: And blip! It's gone! 13:31

EDIT2: Back again!! 13:32
1846  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 11:29:02 AM
i think we're just going back to the trend, we have gone up too quick. every time we go up too quick, we come back down again.



+1
1847  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 11:28:32 AM
We are in the best position possible today. Personally I am very happy that we did not have too much more of a spike up. Instead we can stick to the steady growth  of the last three weeks. Much, much better, as I've said already.

Yeah right. Well let's see how long it lasts. The breaks just seem to give out after a couple of uses on the btc train.

Don't be so jumpy. Do you believe Bitcoin has a future in the wide world? It's the most important question by far, because if it does then we really are extremely Lucky to be investors now.
1848  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 11:22:22 AM
We are in the best position possible today. Personally I am very happy that we did not have too much more of a spike up. Instead we can stick to the steady growth  of the last three weeks. Much, much better, as I've said already.
1849  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 11:20:27 AM
I am about to buy 7 bitcoin. It just seems like a lull before another price hike. Is anyone else waiting for a price drop?

this is the greed/fear paralysis. over and over, my friends and family express an interest to get into bitcoin, but want to wait until a price dip. then, when there is a dip, they fear a crash and don't want in. Then it hits a new ATH and they want in again...on the next dip.

funny but it seems to work this way. People  want to be on safe side and have a huge gain at the same time. When I argue that it is  rather rare  to accommodate both features in the same investment, they look at me like I'am insane person.

Show them the log charts. Strongly discourage them from visiting this forum. Get them to visit a Bitcoin conference.
1850  Economy / Speculation / Re: does anyone notice there are less coins to sell due to mass hodl? on: January 07, 2014, 11:17:38 AM
I have question for all anti-hodl crowd. If you think that people should not hold coins, then please explain me where these coins should go so nobody will hold them. To your pockets maybe? Because I fail to imagine any other place.

+1 That's why it's an unusually positive market. Because the bears are actually bulls! Bulls trying to feed off others' panic! That can't last forever and as it fades away the fading will contribute to the S-curve.
1851  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 10:35:15 AM
Here's your chance. I just bought Smiley

Looking at long term, I know I am going to ride this down sometimes. But will hopefully ride it all the way to the next ATH.

And I will also be there when references to the Oort Cloud are flying. See everyone there.

don't worry, I decided to not dump my tiny stash and am listening to pink floyd instead..   http://youtu.be/xVQTKSWULu8?t=20m52s


"The Wall" by any chance!  Cheesy
1852  Economy / Speculation / Re: Confidence then, confidence now! on: January 07, 2014, 08:35:32 AM

this is the third time in the past hour you've made this same post almost verbatim... methinks he doth protest too much

tell me, T, are you losing confidence? Cheesy


Just trying to keep up with your feverish activity Arepo!  Cheesy And it must take you a lot longer to prepare all your reports!
1853  Economy / Speculation / Re: Confidence then, confidence now! on: January 07, 2014, 08:02:52 AM
What if a market driven by mostly confidence on low volume backfires when something happens to make people less confident, when a business decides they need to dump a truckload of coins to pay their invoices regardless of confidence, or when people are stunned to see a price drop that goes against their beliefs and it turns into a snowball of panic selling.

An essentially chance event won't change things as much as before (unless of course Doomsday scenario). Overall confidence is progressing very, very well.
1854  Economy / Speculation / Re: Confidence then, confidence now! on: January 07, 2014, 08:01:21 AM
In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown.

So you say. Don't worry, many here say the same thing.

Edit: Damn, I've let my hubris out... EM will have a fit.

Thanks for the heads up! I should let those who were commenting here years ago comment on the uncertainty of the past, definately!  Smiley Please do!
1855  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
Hi guys, just came back from holidays, how is 2014 treating you? Is this rally "legit" or a bull trap, what's the consensus in here?

What about  repietila? Is he bull or bear now? Need to know to do the opposite he says Smiley

It's a very long bull trap. Very long indeed!!!  Cheesy
1856  Economy / Speculation / Confidence then, confidence now! on: January 07, 2014, 07:55:02 AM
Thought this might need its own thread. Discuss!!  Wink

Confidence then, confidence now

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. Silk Road, hacks, forks, dodgy exchanges (still are a few but many are rushing to get their acts together )... It is very important that TA analysts come to terms with the fact that there was a lot of essentially chance price movement in the past, based on intermittent media reports and catastrophes that no-one can predict!

But looking at history is in fact very important, but for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get? The bubbles are moving closer together becuase confidence has been growing. This is leading to the S-curve or whatever you want to call it - when confidence becomes a loop alongside new users, new wallets, new adoption, etc.

Thus it is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. But although this will look like a gigantic bubble in a year from now, it will be so large it will necessarily take a lot of time to grow, even at +$20 or +30 per day. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!!   Cheesy
1857  Economy / Speculation / Re: does anyone notice there are less coins to sell due to mass hodl? on: January 07, 2014, 07:46:03 AM
quantum leap

while the rest of your post was surprisingly good, besides a few (citation needed) moments, i just want to let you know that no one with a background in physics will ever take you seriously so long as you use this phrase Tongue

It is a figure of speech. Arepo I think coming down to meet the common man might help you more in the weeks and months to come!
1858  Economy / Speculation / Re: does anyone notice there are less coins to sell due to mass hodl? on: January 07, 2014, 07:45:10 AM
It is easy to see that confidence is taking a quantum leap forward in comparison with the past.

Sounds like we're going way beyond the moon. We're going to travel through time.

 Cheesy ! lol
1859  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downtrend started? on: January 07, 2014, 07:42:58 AM

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure Tongue price history is completely irrelevant right?

Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. That's why looking at things on too small a scale is insane - there is too much chance involved.

But looking at history is in fact important for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get?

It is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!!  Cheesy
1860  Economy / Speculation / Re: does anyone notice there are less coins to sell due to mass hodl? on: January 07, 2014, 07:35:22 AM
People talk about the past but it is very, very important to understand it correctly.

The shape of the bubbles gives an indication, but understand the whole picture.

The bubbles are moving closer together becuase confidence has been growing. This is leading to the S-curve or whatever you want to call it - when confidence becomes a loop alongside new users, new wallets, new adoption, etc.

Think about it. Comparing each last bubble to this one individually without seeing the bigger trend is insane. How many essentially chance events changed things in the past? Things were far, far less certain for BTC than they are now. Silk Road, hacks, forks, dodgy exchanges (still are a few but many are rushing to get their acts together Cheesy)... a year or two ago America was talking about BANNING BTC!!! What's happening now???  Smiley

It is easy to see that confidence is taking a quantum leap forward in comparison with the past. Think about it. It will do you much more good than much of the half-baked geometry you get pushed into your face on this forum!  Smiley
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