As much as it is fun comparing bubbles the fact is they happened for different reasons and have resolved differently. I said the China bubble would resolve higher [EDIT: in proportion] than previous bubbles and I think it's going to keep going as is. We'll see!  |
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Hi all,
Given the increasingly worrying news coming out of MTGox, it is time to start worrying about what will happen to the exchange rate, market confidence, and the Bitcoin image generally if Gox does implode, and take everyone's deposits with them.
My first worry is that to the outside world, Gox is the only exchange that matters. Every publication uses the Gox price when they are talking about Bitcoin, and it's the only exchange that I've really seen talked about in the media. If nothing else, its collapse will be media worthy.
Go away. EDIT: Actually, perhaps I am being naive but it is possible that you are simply a noob and not a very badly disguised troll. In which case don't worry about it. Gox has been to hell and back (perhaps not completely back) and while I would hesitate to compare Gox to Bitcoin itself, there is a certain resemblance as far as resilience goes. Anyway, it may be shit, but I don't think Gox is going anywhere. |
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1/16-1/31
300-999.. sentiment: -3
February will be better month for bitcoin as china is far behind.
Not too much exciting going on right now. Bitcoin still a little overbought.
You must be joking!  That's too wide a margin you are giving yourself there in any situation. Also I believe you might want to up the high price at least to the ATH. In the last few days before 31 January when everyone sees that there is no sell-off the opposite will begin to happen. |
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I don't know of any elaborate writings on this, but I can tell you that it's not a problem for the network: Difficulty would just decrease. The network functions fine at any difficulty. Remember, Satoshi mined on his own in the beginning. The only problem could possibly be an extremely abrupt decrease so that transactions take too long to go through, but at 10 minutes per block, how likely is that?
Electricity in some parts of the world or situations is free, and ASICs have an extremely high efficiency, so it probably won't happen for a longer time. Once an ASIC is unprofitable, the owner will simply sell it to another who has lower costs. Mining is a professional business, the resources will get allocated to those who can make best use of it.
Thanks for your explanations. |
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I can't believe the hold that China has on so many of you.
The illusion is two-fold:
1. A significant proportion, perhaps a majority, of people on this forum really believe that 31 January is going to be some kind of apocalypse - a mega-crash; a mega-dump of Chinese bitcoins on western exchanges; a giant panic sell; etc.
2. Also significant, but perhaps slightly smaller, are the proportion of those who really believe that this could permanently cripple Bitcoin, as if we are going to pass from the Golden Age of bitcoin into some kind of degraded era.
Point 2 is clearly utterly without substance.
IMO point 1 is highly unlikely to materialize. The Chinese government wants a particular level of control. They are working towards that quickly. As for the mega-dump it will not happen. Things will go more or less sideways until more and more of those waiting for the crash realize it isn't going to happen. A tipping point will occur within the waiting crowd and the price will being to rise again.
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Yes … Charts. Here are charts for difficulty (alltime log chart included): http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ Compare them with the price chart and it is easy enough to see. Mining difficulty doesn't increase the price of Bitcoin, it is a common error. Certainly noone is refraining from buying Bitcoin because the difficulty is too low or selling them due to this. As always, price is the leading indicator. edit: Sorry, I missed the bolded part. Unfontunately, it is probably impossible to show this, but the source of my suspicions rests on the fact that exchanges are seeing very little influx of Bitcoin even in times when prices don't increase. It would be extremely difficult for Bitcoin to become as illiquid as it did if you had a constant influx of 3600 BTC/day. Let's just say for the sake of argument that mining becomes so clearly unprofitable that miners start pulling out. With the network where it's at, at what stage does this become an obstacle to the network's ability to function usefully (timely confirmations etc.)? Can you point me towards any recent study of this? |
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The Sacramento Kings news seems to be going viral. How come this is the biggest Bitcoin-related news for weeks?
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How do we feel about the single (high volume) bottom so far? I never quite made up my mind if we actually found support (at a level based on some less obvious trend, perhaps) on Dec. 18, or if we're in for another re-test of a capitulation bottom?
The million dollar question … Literally. A problem with 455 is that it's a mere 63% off the top, and it was no particularly high volume either. But, purely from the changed look of the chart because of the uptrend from 455, it looks unlike 2011. While that doesn't necessarily mean it can't play out similarly or even worse regardless, I think there's at least as good an argument to be made for a larger triangle/sideways move that will take months to conclude, and thus, a bottom higher than 455. In any case, Bitcoin has fundamentally become a dangerous game because miners have had such large marginal profits for an unprecedented amount of time. Here's the chart I watch for that. Just ignore the pre-ASIC period and the y axis labelings, the only thing that matters is the relative trend here. New lows in margin profits mean higher and higher pressure on miners, and eventually, they will have to sell nearly all of the daily supply, of which I suspect, unlike any real world mining market, a large part has been withheld from the market until now. We are speculators. If we even get a whiff of this, we bail and force them to sell an even larger percentage because of the decreased price. It's a positive feedback loop of nightmarish proportion, and it is what happened in 2011. Do you have some sources to back this up? I would be interested to read up on this. The counter-argument goes that mining difficulty increasing will raise the price of Bitcoin, isn't it? Thanks for any sources! |
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Price graphs are useless, technical analysis is a distraction.
You know that technical analysis is a useful tool to estimate sentiment. This here is not even trying, though. You know I wish some TA analysts (not necessarily OP) would remember this - TA is a tool to estimate sentiment. It is not the other way around - sentiment should not bend to the will of TA. For example I've seen analysts write about hodling as if it is some kind of cheating - not fair because it might skew TA. But it is the job of the analyst to factor hodling into their estimate, not for hodlers to conform to the analyst's personal estimates! |
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they won't ban it because they can't, but they will probably arrest anyone using it - that they can do.
They are not going to arrest people. They will just control the flow of money via the channels they can watch. They may make limits on how much can be purchased per person per year. That kind of thing. |
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More chart BS  This time for the Bulls Huobi clearly shows a pennant, which suggests a continuation of the uptrend once complete (in about 3 days)  Not a pennant IMO, based on a few things -- time frame, absence of flag pole, the fact that the first downward wave of the formation broke below previous resistance (i.e. the bottom of the flag pole). The fact that the sharp move that typically precedes a pennant is contained within this formation is another indication that this is a longer term consolidation pattern. I see a symmetrical triangle, which admittedly is more bullish than the current formations on western exchanges. I would expect a breakout earlier than 3 days based on the wave structure and proximity to the close of the triangle. Much longer and it won't be very reliable. Sideways. Waiting for a cue. I said two weeks ago we would end up at this point at this price right now! |
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Sold 20% of my holdings @845, got a feeling all this uncertainty will send us down soon.
Is that why you were uncertain about how much to sell?  |
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BTC-E is legally registered in Bulgaria, so Russian laws won't affect it. Maybe it will affect the Russians who use it ? unverified Russians. If Rasputin were here he would be a long-term Hodler! |
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BTC is like a clever, beautiful woman. You want her badly. She can destroy you. She can take you to the moon if you can take her mood swings. She has me wrapped around her little finger! She has tied you to the bed posts and is pishing on your face whilst digging her heels into your knuts. "Pishing"? Is that how she got my credit card details? ROFL!!! |
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I too believe "make love China", but I am afraid that in this instance, Troll 1 Regular forum-dweller 0 I'm no troll, Ive been here for what seems like for ever, just got a few accounts is all. Regular forum-dweller -1 |
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I too believe "make love China", but I am afraid that in this instance, Troll 1 Regular forum-dweller 0 |
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