so that's where we're headed now. bumpy consolidation into a final capitulation event, and then we can finally be done with the craziness of the December crash. however, if the bubble paradigm we've seen so many times before holds we will not see sub $450 and we will likely not see sub $600.
Arepo - excuse my wish for precise figures but can you please give me a target I can quote you on? You know where I stand! That's a bit unreasonable. That's a pretty specific range for a bottom. those are just lower bounds. i do have a much more specific target. i can answer the questions "What is the target price for capitulation? What is the expected timeframe? and What price action would invalidate this model?" if i can raise the bounty described in my previous post. i hope this arrangement seems reasonable. i really can't just go around posting my notes in their entirety on a public forum  forum members who are interested can feel free use this thread to make pledges so that a number of individuals can contribute small amounts but be confident that the bounty will be reached and the information will be released. --arepo Frankly I think that's a bit steep! We have to pay you to be more specific? But you put plenty of effort - must be hours every week on here not to mention the calculations - into reporting impending capitulations and then we ask questions and have to pay? This is a one-off test of your methods. Rise to the challenge. You have called me out before for not explaining my position better. I have tried - and spent time doing so (time writing is money for me as it's my profession!) - but never asked anyone for anything or even put an address for donations. This is a chat forum! |
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This is it people. We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise. Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.
The maddest senior troll of them all!  |
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I'm buying (small amounts) now, everyone is expecting a drop... generaly means an increase  But have you read the latest confirmed bad news, verified in the links I provide. Read them yourself. It's over. You're very late with this. Why all the trolling? |
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Getting rid of China is bullish?   Extremely. But only in an ideal situation where there was a clean break. Otherwise those will short-sighted vision will likely be perturbed by China's ongoing presence and panic that Bitcoin is handicapped in some way which is of course just unfounded fear at this stage. |
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Sorry to all I was not faithful on fulfilling my BTC to escrow. Had a major issue yesterday, where I'm currently at was hit with the biggest snowstorm in over 10+years on top of artic vortex temperatures...
Hello? CoinBull's back? What's all this about the worst blizzard in 10 years Coinbull? CoinBull what do you have to say for yourself? My coins froze??? Doesn't matter about the escrow of course. Our honesty doesn't rely on an escrow. If by tomorrow at 07:02:14 PM (GMT +1) the price has touched $750 on GOX I will send you 1 BTC. I expect you to send me 1 BTC if this has not happened. This is all as agreed yesterday. Thanks. |
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OK so on the main Wall thread you said:
"if the bubble paradigm holds then we will definitely see prices no lower than $450 and likely see prices no lower than $600."
But please give odds on this bubble paradigm holding?
Please can you give a timescale?
Please can you tell me what has to happen in the future (prices, timescale, whatever else) for you to accept definitively that what you are proposing today has failed to materialise?
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Guy's lost in another world. He couldn't even read the prices properly. I see a lot of this badly researched bullshit around.
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so that's where we're headed now. bumpy consolidation into a final capitulation event, and then we can finally be done with the craziness of the December crash. however, if the bubble paradigm we've seen so many times before holds we will not see sub $450 and we will likely not see sub $600.
Arepo - excuse my wish for precise figures but can you please give me a target I can quote you on? You know where I stand! How long until we reach the bottom of the correction you are proposing? What price will be the low in your opinion? What would it take for you to accept that the current situation is not in fact the correction you are proposing? What are the odds of this eventuality? So that it is clear here is a screenshot of the GOX charts right now, so we have a time reference for the future.  Of course you cannot give 100% precise figures. But I would like something I can quote you on if possible. This is not to beat you at any game, but rather because I think that as someone who practises a science that many would feel they must follow if they have no experience themselves, I think you should be happy to be accountable for your predictions. Thanks, Stuart |
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Sorry to all I was not faithful on fulfilling my BTC to escrow. Had a major issue yesterday, where I'm currently at was hit with the biggest snowstorm in over 10+years on top of artic vortex temperatures...
Hello? CoinBull's back? What's all this about the worst blizzard in 10 years Coinbull? CoinBull what do you have to say for yourself? |
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yeah, the newbs need to stop going around finding news to justify price movements. market forces are generally much more powerful on the mid-term scale anyway. what we're seeing is a healthy mid-term correction to a very large bulltrap. this shouldn't be news to anyone, although i know many didn't believe it when it was mentioned on the way up.
--arepo
Arepo at what price and for how many days does this apparent downtrend have to continue until the "very large bulltrap" is healthily corrected (I mean it's got to be to a minimum of touching what, $650 or something and overall last a couple of weeks minimum right?) ? Please can you be specific so we can see your method at work. I will be the first to congratulate you when we see the results. |
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Sorry to all I was not faithful on fulfilling my BTC to escrow. Had a major issue yesterday, where I'm currently at was hit with the biggest snowstorm in over 10+years on top of artic vortex temperatures...
Hello? CoinBull's back? What's all this about the worst blizzard in 10 years Coinbull? |
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Hey where is the panic sell-off with this news? Don't tell me the bulls are going to be running all over China now? Madness, complete madness!!!  |
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Look at the bid walls on every exchange! Someone is trying desperately to hold the price up. Protecting their investment? trying to get out at a higher price?
+1 I think you're right! Are you guys pretending to be stupid or do you really not understand how walls work? I was just having a bit of a laugh with the guy. Perhaps you should try it sometime! |
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Look at the bid walls on every exchange! Someone is trying desperately to hold the price up. Protecting their investment? trying to get out at a higher price?
+1 I think you're right! |
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Either this crash has a slower pace and not "kicked in" yet, or "bad news from China" will start having diminishing returns from now on?
+1 We're seeing it with our own eyes. If today's China news came out three weeks ago then I think the price would have halved by now. |
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Gosh what's going on? Look at all that red stuff. Why no panic dumping? What's the matter? No one want to sell their Bitcoins en masse? lol I really have no idea, the selling presure is big though. Maybe shorting when 5000 is breached Maybe people are trying to work out how long it will take for business to really take off in the States now that Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Senator Tom Carper is confirming again that it's time for Bitcoin to evolve in the US. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101316945 |
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Gosh what's going on? Look at all that red stuff. Why no panic dumping? What's the matter? No one want to sell their Bitcoins en masse? lol |
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If you were watching the walls you would have seen what happened here. Sudden very strong downward pressure being put on Stamp with unusually tall sell walls going up bang in the middle of the spread every minute and then disappearing when the price moved down a little. Then bang up again. For 45 minutes.
Isn't that just someone trying to use Bitstamps silly alternative for a market order, their "Instant order". They describe it as: When you place an instant order, we add an order at the current bid or ask price (depending on the type of the order). If there is not enough bitcoins available at that price, your order will remain open until someone sells or buys additional bitcoins at that price. Our trading engine will then reposition your order every 10 minutes to the current order book offer. This sounds like what you're describing: A wall right at the current price, that sits there for a bit and then disappears and moves down with the price. That's a good point actually. A sell off at Bitstamp can happen differently to GOX in that way. But these walls were disappearing for a minute or two at a time then shooting back. An automatic calculation by the trade engine shouldn't take minutes. |
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It's time to show some resilience in the face of any Chinese pressure. It is already happening. If we had had this negative news three weeks ago I bet prices would have halved instantly! But look at today so far: a return to a normally bullish trendline.
Just remember that Bitcoin has huge untapped markets to move into in many countries, and that this is starting to happen.
This means that fundamentally there is no reason for anything happening in China to affect Bitcoin at this early stage. Like if you put a rock on top of a seed it'll grow right around it; chop a tree down and it's finished.
Bitcoin is not a tree yet which means that as long as it has any room for growth (and it has plenty) fundamentally it will not be affected by China.
The problem is us! It's psychological. If we panic, lose face, turn and run, we will just be wasting our time. There's nothing to fear. Don't falter in the face of negative propaganda, which sadly will probably be passed about even by a few people here.
Hodl on!
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Someone, for whatever reason, is desperate to keep the price down on Stamp! Incredible stuff!
Looking for cheaper coins, whoever you are?
Wow.
EDIT: And blip! It's gone! 13:31
EDIT2: Back again!! 13:32
Whilst China has led the run-up's in the past few days, Bitstamp has lead the sell off's. Of course, the magical thing about Bitstamp is that you can actually get money out the fkn place. so for anyone looking to cash out, Stamp is the place to do it. I wonder how many Chinese Bitcoin speculators with some form of access to foreign currency markets will be looking to cash out into foreign currencies at Bitstamp? For spike ups, look to China, for corrections, look to Bitstamp. This seems to be the story for the time being anyhow. I disagree. While all exchanges can of course lead depending on circumstances, Bitstamp has been very strong recently upwards too, playing the leading role in recent rallies. If you were watching the walls you would have seen what happened here. Sudden very strong downward pressure being put on Stamp with unusually tall sell walls going up bang in the middle of the spread every minute and then disappearing when the price moved down a little. Then bang up again. For 45 minutes. Clear case of someone trying to push down and create a panic. It didn't work and when they took the lid off Stamp blew up like a fountain! |
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