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2261  Economy / Economics / Re: First Bitcoin Mixer Penalized by FinCEN for Violating Anti-Money Laundering Laws on: October 27, 2020, 11:21:22 PM

Not many may be aware that proxies, vpns and tor nodes are often run by businesses with connections to intelligence agencies like the FBI, NSA, CIA. Its an industry standard for virtually anything IT related.


I think this point is a bit misleading. VPN's are regularly used to connect to a local network within a company and that type are very unlikely to be of interest to the intelligence agencies. Proxies can also be used for both good and bad. However TOR nodes tend to have a slightly different reputation and are not commonly used in general commercial enterprises. Grouping them all up is a bit unfair. In response to the main piece of news: these bitcoin mixers literally have no other purpose than to disguise the source of funds, which is pretty much the definition of money laundering and it was always going to end up badly for them. Kind of glad that law enforcement have finally taken some action, as it has been going on for years.


Security researchers have spent more than the last 10 years trying various methods to break TOR. Here's a classic example from 2007:

Quote
Security researcher intercepts embassy passwords from Tor

SEP 10, 2007

A security researcher who collected thousands of sensitive e-mails and passwords from the embassies of countries such as Russia and India blamed systems administrators on Monday for not using encryption to shield their traffic from snooping.

Dan Egerstad, a 21-year-old security researcher, revealed on Monday he was able to capture the information by setting up his own node in a peer-to-peer network used by the embassies to make their Internet traffic anonymous.

https://www.infoworld.com/article/2649832/security-researcher-intercepts-embassy-passwords-from-tor.html

Services like VPNs, proxies and TOR could be utilized to upload viruses, malware or conduct electronic attacks. Which means there will always be a motive for law enforcement and intelligence to have a vested interest in them. Their strategy for this has changed over time. In past years, they were more visible, open and heavy handed in their approach. These days their strategy revolves more around misinformation and stealth.

Mixers can serve a useful purpose of enhancing privacy without delving into criminal territory of full blown money laundering afaik.


I doubt that. KYC would completely negate the purpose of using a mixer in the first place.


People have been known to receive ads related to topics they mentioned out loud or through texts on phones. Also ads indexed according to items they recently bought in stores. Etc. AFAIK there are extensive networks of data mining which ID people using cookies, email addresses and other seemingly innocuous methods of tracking. Registering an email on a bitcoin faucet or allowing cookie tracking might be considered forms of KYC. A mixer wouldn't necessarily require a full KYC check. It could only need to participate in whatever information gathering networks exist, while disabling anonymizing services.
2262  Economy / Economics / First Bitcoin Mixer Penalized by FinCEN for Violating Anti-Money Laundering Laws on: October 24, 2020, 11:38:21 AM
Quote
WASHINGTON—The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has assessed a $60 million civil money penalty against Larry Dean Harmon, the founder, administrator, and primary operator of Helix and Coin Ninja, convertible virtual currency “mixers,” or “tumblers,” for violations of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and its implementing regulations.  

Mr. Harmon operated Helix as an unregistered money services business (MSB) from 2014 to 2017 and Coin Ninja from 2017 to 2020.  Mr. Harmon is currently being prosecuted in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia on charges of conspiracy to launder monetary instruments and the operation of an unlicensed money transmitting business in connection with his operation of Helix.

As FinCEN clarified in its 2013 Guidance, exchangers and administrators of convertible virtual currency are money transmitters under the BSA.  As such, they have an obligation to register with FinCEN; to develop, implement, and maintain an anti-money laundering compliance program; and to meet all applicable reporting and recordkeeping requirements.  FinCEN issued further clarification in 2019 that financial institutions that are mixers and tumblers of convertible virtual currency must also meet these same requirements.

Mr. Harmon, doing business as Helix and Coin Ninja, operated as an exchanger of convertible virtual currencies by accepting and transmitting bitcoin through a variety of means.  From June 2014 through December 2017, Helix conducted over 1,225,000 transactions for its customers and was associated with virtual currency wallet addresses that sent or received over $311 million dollars.  FinCEN’s investigation has identified at least 356,000 bitcoin transactions through Helix.  Mr. Harmon operated Helix as a bitcoin mixer, or tumbler, and advertised its services in the darkest spaces of the internet as a way for customers to anonymously pay for things like drugs, guns, and child pornography.  Mr. Harmon subsequently founded, and acted as Chief Executive Officer of, Coin Ninja, which operated as an unregistered MSB and in the same manner as Helix.

FinCEN’s investigation revealed that Mr. Harmon willfully violated the BSA’s registration, program, and reporting requirements by failing to register as a MSB, failing to implement and maintain an effective anti-money laundering program, and failing to report suspicious activities.

Specifically, the investigation demonstrated that Mr. Harmon deliberately disregarded his obligations under the BSA and implemented practices that allowed Helix to circumvent the BSA’s requirements.  This included a failure to collect and verify customer names, addresses, and other identifiers on over 1.2 million transactions.  Harmon, operating through Helix, actively deleted even the minimal customer information he did collect.  The investigation revealed that Mr. Harmon engaged in transactions with narcotics traffickers, counterfeiters and fraudsters, as well as other criminals.  

FinCEN closely coordinated today’s action with the U.S. Department of Justice’s Computer Crimes and Intellectual Property Section, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation division.

https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/first-bitcoin-mixer-penalized-fincen-violating-anti-money-laundering-laws


....


The following could be relevent aspects to the charges and investigation.

Quote
  • Specifically, the investigation demonstrated that Mr. Harmon deliberately disregarded his obligations under the BSA and implemented practices that allowed Helix to circumvent the BSA’s requirements.  This included a failure to collect and verify customer names, addresses, and other identifiers on over 1.2 million transactions
  • Mr. Harmon operated Helix as a bitcoin mixer, or tumbler, and advertised its services in the darkest spaces of the internet as a way for customers to anonymously pay for things like drugs, guns, and child pornography

Not many may be aware that proxies, vpns and tor nodes are often run by businesses with connections to intelligence agencies like the FBI, NSA, CIA. Its an industry standard for virtually anything IT related.

We may witness a transition period where bitcoin mixers gradually adopt KYC checks and engage in other practices to be more compliant with BSA.

Another point is, there could be bitcoin mixers running in countries which do not extradite, or conform to united states court rulings. These type of FINCEN rulings could hold no weight there. Rogue states like north korea could run as many bitcoin mixers as they desired and the USA probably couldn't do anything about it.
2263  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Shit Hits the Fan: Australia joins US, India and Japan in Naval Exercise on: October 23, 2020, 10:12:57 AM
Chinese are capable of doing innovation. Show me an example of any Chinese company being accused of plagiarism, in the past 2-3 years.


https://qz.com/771727/chinas-factories-in-shenzhen-can-copy-products-at-breakneck-speed-and-its-time-for-the-rest-of-the-world-to-get-over-it/

This is from 2-3 years ago.

It still happens today even if its never discussed, mentioned or talked about.
2264  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Shit Hits the Fan: Australia joins US, India and Japan in Naval Exercise on: October 23, 2020, 04:35:25 AM
China is one of the biggest economy, and no other country can step in and immediately replace them.



China --arguably-- doesn't contribute real value to global markets.

They only steal other peoples technology, designs. Copyrighted and patented products. Which means they're very replaceable.

 Wink
2265  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Shit Hits the Fan: Australia joins US, India and Japan in Naval Exercise on: October 23, 2020, 02:18:35 AM
The European Union is not participating
Which could indicate the EU leans in favor of global communism and is a strong ally of china.

Should the EU be involved in something that is happening on the other side of the world? How much would it cost to send military forces to one such military exercise?

What should not be forgotten is that it was the Chinese who saved the EU in the last recession with huge amounts of money by entering various companies in countries that were or still are among the most influential in the EU (UK, Germany, France).

How much of Europe does China own?


The united states spearheads the majority of EU military operations in iraq, afghanistan and the middle east over the last 20 years. Those regions reside in the EU's backyard on the opposite side of the planet from the USA. I'm not certain if the united states and european union could be considered allies if americans are willing to travel to the other side of the planet to help the EU defend its interests. While the EU is unwilling to do the same to support US interests.

The EU's main driving focus has always been aggressive expansionism. To acquire as many nations under its border as possible. Why?

US TARP bailouts were issued to european banks, who then distributed funds as loans to flailing european governments. This trend of the US bailing out european banks, who then bailed out european governments through loans, continued for many years. It was the united states who saved the EU through bailouts, not china.


A war between the united states and china could already be rigged in china's favor
Its gotten to a point where america defeating china in a military conflict is no longer guaranteed.

I would not agree that China would risk a world war at this time or in the near future, because retaliation would be not only from the United States, but from all its allies - and China is not up to it, despite all its achievements and technological developments.


News sources have repeated over and over, thousands of times. Saying the united states "has no friends or allies with Donald Trump as President". The united states "lost" the support of the global community, and isolated itself, by raising tariffs on china. This is the common theme that has been repeated over the last 4 years. It could also be the reason only the USA, japan, india and australia are participating in the war game.

I agree china may not be up to the task and could economically implode the way the USSR did. Already we see power struggles between Xi Jinpeng and the communist party. Which could deteriorate into civil war or infighting which hurts their expansion efforts.



Lorence.xD , WW3 is something that has been successfully sold (in the yellow press) for more than 70 years - I've heard about it all my life and believe me that such a war is not in anyone's interest. I have personally experienced one war in my life, and I can tell you that it is hell on earth, and WW3 might be the end for humanity given the atomic/chemical/biological arsenal we possess today.


Shadow leaders of the world do not want World War III.

Its too large of a conflict and too difficult to control.

That doesn't rule out long term, human, suffering however. Unfortunately for us.
2266  Economy / Economics / Re: usa goverment 3.13 tril. defict its enough? on: October 22, 2020, 02:41:00 PM
Suicide rates soared post 2008 economic crisis. During times of economic trauma, many lose their jobs, can't afford to pay bills or rent. It translates to suicide rates climbing significantly. At a certain juncture we might ask whether additional suicide deaths caused by economic lockdowns are resulting in a higher suicide casualty rate than the number of deaths claimed by the corona virus. I haven't looked at statistics but there is a chance lockdowns and the jobs and businesses destroyed by them are producing greater damage than the virus has the potential to cause atm. If indeed the mortality rate of the virus is decreasing as many have claimed.

The US deficit carries a potential to elevate the value of bitcoin. But to be honest, nations around the world are likely experiencing the same difficulties the USA is. If not worse. Economic slowdown in america, the largest consumer market in the world, can pull the global economy down with it. As occurred during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
2267  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Shit Hits the Fan: Australia joins US, India and Japan in Naval Exercise on: October 22, 2020, 01:46:43 PM
Key points here.

The European Union is not participating
Which could indicate the EU leans in favor of global communism and is a strong ally of china.

China is expected to have at least six aircraft carrier battle groups by 2035
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2185081/china-will-build-4-nuclear-aircraft-carriers-drive-catch-us-navy

China claimed hawaii, micronesia and much of the world as their territory as far back as 2014
This could indicate they openly acknowledge their master plan is to expand across the pacific.
http://www.miniharm.com/2014/08/27/chinas-world-map-claims-hawaii-micronesia/

A war between the united states and china could already be rigged in china's favor
I won't go into detail here, unless someone really wants me to. Suffice it to say china was given many advantages. They were able to steal all of the relevent information on F-22 and F-35 fighters to build their own J-20. China was given sensitive missile and communications technology by past US Presidents. There's a long list of tech and industrial processes china was able to steal or arrange to have acquired. They've done it for decades with no crackdown or retaliation. Its gotten to a point where america defeating china in a military conflict is no longer guaranteed.
2268  Economy / Economics / Money Supply Growth Has Never Been As High As It Is Today on: October 16, 2020, 10:11:10 AM
Quote
With the Federal Reserve and Congress pushing stimulus efforts to new heights, some investors are keeping a close eye on a surge in the U.S. money supply for signs of inflation’s long-awaited return.
We have never observed money supply growth as high as it is today
With a litany of metrics showing rapid growth in the value of money waiting in banks and other liquid accounts, investors from Ray Dalio to Paul Tudor Jones have warned that the era of tepid price rises may be coming to an end.

“It’s fair to say we have never observed money supply growth as high as it is today,” Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote this week.

The “Fed may not be in control of Money Supply growth which means they won’t have control of inflation either, if it gets going,” he added.



There are several different ways economists measure the size of the U.S. money supply that are generally classified with the letter “M,” such as M0, M1 and M2.

The broad M2 measure includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits and money market securities. Because of its wide definition, economists and investors tend to watch changes to the M2 supply as an indicator of the total money supply and future inflation.

More money, more inflation?

As underscored by Wilson, the year-over-year percent change in the M2 supply is now north of 23%. To put that in perspective, year-over-year growth in the M2 money supply had never exceeded 15% until 2020, according to Fed records dating back to 1981.

Normally characterized by slow, steady growth, the M2 supply has grown 20% from $15.33 trillion at the end of 2019 to $18.3 trillion at the end of July.

“The risk of higher inflation may be greater than it’s ever been, too,” Wilson wrote. “While this hasn’t shown up in back end rates yet, the very sharp move higher in breakevens [bond market inflation expectations] and precious metals suggest higher inflation may be on its way.”

That seemed to be the opinion of longtime hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, who in May said that his concerns over inflation and dollar depreciation prompted him to invest in both bitcoin and gold.



Though the differences between bitcoin and gold are many, Wall Street has for weeks chased both assets as hedges against inflation and a relatively safe place to keep wealth during a volatile year.


Gold, one of 2020′s best trades, on Wednesday burst through historic resistance at $2,000 an ounce to reach a new record. Between the Covid-19 pandemic and inflation expectations, gold has gained nearly 35% this year, far ahead of the S&P 500′s 3%.

“If you take cash, on the other hand, and you think about it from a purchasing power standpoint, if you own cash in the world today, you know your central bank has an avowed goal of depreciating its value 2% per year,” Jones said in May. “So you have, in essence, a wasting asset in your hands.”



The source of this M2 expansion and these inflation concerns isn’t necessarily a mystery.

Congress and the Fed have worked in tandem to combat the negative economic effects of Covid-19 with an unprecedented cocktail of fiscal spending, near-zero interest rates and subsidized loan programs.

Those efforts, largely designed to help businesses keep workers on payrolls and ease the impact of layoffs, have been applauded for keeping consumer spending afloat in recent months.

But between a prodigal Congress and an empowered Fed, critics argue that “printing money” to juice the economy could backfire and cause a spike in prices. Banks are still stuffed to the gills with reserves that could, in time, flow into the economy through credit and loans.

“Congress is now the critical player in driving money supply growth with the Fed fully committed to doing whatever it takes,” Wilson wrote. “This is very different from the post [financial crisis] era when aggressive monetary policy was unmet with a willing borrower and spender. We think this poses a greater likelihood for inflationary pressures to build.”

Need for speed

But while an expanded money supply may set the stage for inflation, the relationship between M2 and inflation has been debatable over the years. Some, like PGIM Fixed Income economist Nathan Sheets, said he’s taking a wait-and-see approach.

Sheets, who served in the U.S. Treasury Department until 2017, said investors were also worried about inflation in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Those fears, he said, ultimately did not come to fruition.

“Rates were very low and central bank balance sheets (and money creation) had surged. But the liquidity then sat in the banking system—including as excess reserves at the Fed,” he wrote in an email. “Money creation must translate into increased lending and spending in order for it to be inflationary.”

The idea that money creation won’t necessarily generate inflation is centered on yet another economics concept known as the velocity of money.

The velocity of money is, very simply, the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. High money velocity is usually associated with a healthy economy with businesses and consumers spending money and adding to a country’s gross domestic product.

But the velocity of money can slow during recessions as corporations and families elect to save more of each dollar they earn. Demographic changes, such as an older population, also tend to curb the velocity of money.

According to Sheets, the Fed can go to extreme lengths to flush the economy with cash and bolster the M2 supply. But if businesses and customers aren’t inclined to spend the added dollars, the cash will almost invariably wind up sitting idle, not contributing to GDP or inflation.

That may be a partial explanation as to why the U.S. hasn’t seen headline inflation numbers increase despite the rise in M2 supply in recent months.

The Labor Department’s latest report on core consumer prices showed the index down for a third consecutive month in June for the first time since 1957. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increase 0.9% on a year-over-year basis in June, the smallest advance since December 2010.

“Inflation has been held down by some deep structural factors, including aging demographics and high debt levels — which have restrained aggregate demand and pressures on prices,” Sheets wrote in an email. “Workers have struggled to get higher wages, and firms — competing against the so-called ‘Amazon price’ — have had little capacity to raise their prices.”

“My expectation is that these forces are likely to continue on the other side of the virus,” Sheets wrote. “In response, central banks will remain highly stimulative, but hitting 2% inflation targets on a sustained basis is going to be a challenge.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/the-ballooning-money-supply-may-be-the-key-to-unlocking-inflation-in-the-us.html


....


Bitcoin was mentioned positively in this article as a legitimate hedge against inflation similar to gold (bolded).

Summary

  • the year-over-year percent change in the M2 supply is now north of 23%. To put that in perspective, year-over-year growth in the M2 money supply had never exceeded 15% until 2020, according to Fed records dating back to 1981.
  • Normally characterized by slow, steady growth, the M2 supply has grown 20% from $15.33 trillion at the end of 2019 to $18.3 trillion at the end of July.
  • The “Fed may not be in control of Money Supply growth which means they won’t have control of inflation either, if it gets going,” Morgan Stanley writes.
  • Economist and former Treasury official Nathan Sheets counters that if businesses aren’t inclined to spend, the larger money supply may do little to fan inflation.

The following point is very interesting:

Quote
“Rates were very low and central bank balance sheets (and money creation) had surged. But the liquidity then sat in the banking system—including as excess reserves at the Fed,” he wrote in an email. “Money creation must translate into increased lending and spending in order for it to be inflationary.”

The mainstream media acknowledges the US monetary supply is growing at its fastest rate since the 1980s. Inflation is becoming a legitimate concern. Savvy investors are putting their money in gold and bitcoin in an effort to avoid having their wealth be devalued.

This scenario is one that has been mentioned and discussed on this forum countless times over the years. I wonder what people think of this.
2269  Economy / Economics / Re: Trump and imf boss want to print more money on: October 16, 2020, 12:25:24 AM
I guess that imf are interested about same things as Trump now



Trump definitely shifted 180° on some issues.

Trump previously backed hydroxychloroquine as the most cost effective & best treatment for corona virus. His stance shifted 180° when he stopped taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventive measure, and opted to be treated with remedesivir and regeneron instead.

If Trump is pro IMF now. Its a 180° shift from Trump's previous stance where Trump demanded foreign nations pay their fair share of cost burden in the UN, NATO, WHO, IMF and everything else. The united states pays the largest share of funding those organizations, which trend towards pushing their own agendas, which often are destructive for the US economy and job markets.
2270  Economy / Economics / Re: China is looking to get rid of the US dollar on: October 15, 2020, 11:59:18 PM
If venezuela issued a new cryptocurrency tomorrow, would anyone trust it?

China could have similar issues to venezuela. In terms of lack of trust. The CCP not being considered the most reliable or stable thing in the world.

In past years china announced they would back their native yuan currency with gold to implement a gold standard. Many news stories from china are later found to be false and do not pan out. Remember when china claimed they would "ban crypto currencies, exchanges" or "ban crypto mining". These news stories sent the price of bitcoin tumbling. Some of these news stories were later found to be false. Which did little or nothing to mitigate the damage inflicted.

Stability, trust and reliability are 3 main things people look for with currencies and assets. All of which could be areas where china is in short supply.
2271  Economy / Economics / Re: Trump and imf boss want to print more money on: October 15, 2020, 11:34:33 PM
Trump cut WHO (World Health Organization) funding earlier this year.

Quote
Trump cuts off U.S. funding to WHO, pending review

President Trump said the U.S. will stop funding to the World Health Organization while his administration reviews its role in “mismanaging” the coronavirus.

He said the U.S. contributes up to $400 million while superpowers like China, where the outbreak began, contribute closer to $40 million.

“The United States has a duty to insist on full accountability,” Mr. Trump said.

He cited the WHO’s lack of pushback to Beijing’s foggy reporting on the virus in the early going, saying it cost the rest of the world valuable time.

He also blasted the WHO’s opposition to bans on travel from China, accusing it of putting “political correctness above life-saving measures.”

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/14/donald-trump-cuts-who-funding-pending-review/

....

Its interesting for the media to claim "agreement" between Trump and organizations like the IMF.

Trump spent the first 4 years of his term in strong opposition to groups like WHO and the IMF.

The IMF and similar factions strongly opposed Trump's raising of tariff's on china. Trump never agreed with the IMF on anything.
2272  Economy / Economics / Re: Can Blockchain Gaming Drive Cryptocurrency Adoption? on: October 15, 2020, 10:36:49 AM
I think game based micro transactions are the logical market to tap for those interested in mass adoption. The creators of fortnite are known for purchasing thousands of acres of land for the purpose of furthering wildlife conservation. Rather than pitching bitcoin mass adoption to Warren Buffett, a large shareholder of Wells Fargo, Chase, JP Morgan and other banking institutions. It could be more effective to pitch bitcoin mass adoption to the existing owners and developers of existing microtransaction based games with large fanbases who are known to occasionally back humanitarian causes.

Blockchain gaming is an interesting niche market. The main difficulty with blockchain gaming could be the gaming industry being performance oriented. While blockchain, being an encryption based security algorithm, is the inverse opposite of performance. Which isn't to say there isn't future potential for blockchain gaming. There certainly are applications and niche markets where blockchain gaming could take off in the future. Gaming being a highly manpower and time intensive industry however, it could require multi-million dollar budgets and years for blockchain gaming to be able to compete with standard AAA titles.
2273  Economy / Economics / Re: Can a new $2 trillion bill bring back the US economy to pre pandemic levels. on: October 15, 2020, 10:14:03 AM
High obesity, american diets, could be one key underrated reason for corona virus impacting the united states harder than abroad. Obesity and poor health associated with standardized american diets could guarantee americans remain a higher risk demographic, no matter how much capital is injected into the economy.

Barack Obama passed a $1.4 trillion dollar stimulus bill to counter the 2008 economic crisis. It didn't achieve anywhere near to the quantity of positive results one might expect from such a large sum of money. I think its safe to say $2 trillion won't do anything to fix problems. Lockdowns are the cause of job loss and business being destroyed. Throwing money at lockdowns won't change anything, as long as lockdowns remain in place.
2274  Economy / Economics / Re: Best Solution for taxes on: October 15, 2020, 09:57:57 AM
The optimal policy for taxes depends upon which of the following stances a person personally subscribes to.

Stance #1  Free markets and the private sector are better suited to solving problems, elevating standard of living and creating innovation than governments.

Stance #2  Governments are better at solving problems, elevating standard of living and solving problems society faces than free markets or the private sector.

If most of our progress, new inventions, innnovations and standard of living come from the private sector -- the logical environment to pursue is one of low taxation. Low taxes guarantee more money going to free markets and the private sector, which translates to greater progress and elevated standard of living.

If however governments are better sources of innovation and progress than free markets or capitalism, then higher taxes make more sense.
2275  Other / Off-topic / Re: TESLA WILL BE THE FUTURE on: October 10, 2020, 08:34:33 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm7l3YxEF8g

The Past, Present, and Future of EV's


Good overview and analysis of Tesla and EV markets.

2276  Economy / Economics / Re: Venezuela Planning New 100,000-Bolivar Bills Worth Just $0.23 on: October 10, 2020, 12:42:39 AM

Quote
Venezuela has begun to import banknote paper

The country has brought in about 71 tons of security paper this year from an Italian printer majority owned by the private equity firm Bain Capital



Bolded above highlights some of venezuela's issues.

They import 71 tons of security paper, due to their nation lacking the expertise, productive capacity and industry to make it themselves. Their economy is a giant trade deficit where they produce little or nothing. This places them in a disadvantaged position of trade, making them extremely reliant on foreign imports.

This becomes evident by recent history. The hydroelectric dam in caracas which previously generated free electricity many utilized to mine bitcoin has experienced technical issues. No one in the country appears to be up to the task of maintaining or fixing whatever is broken on the dam. And so standard of living inevitably declines. This negative analogy applies across the board to venezuela's previously rich oil industry and all sectors of their economy.
2277  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can be a part of N N Taleb's "Antifragile Barbell" Investment Scheme on: October 09, 2020, 11:41:27 PM
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (famous for popularizing the term "Black Swan" and writing a book about it) wrote a book a few years later titled Antifragile.  "Antifragile" things are those that get stronger after being put under stress (oversimplifying). 



Good post. I've never heard or read any of this before. Thanks for sharing.

The term antifragile (IMO) appears to imply adaptive capacity. It could be more accurate to utilize terms like "best historically performing assets under recessions" when assessing precious metals like gold. The adaptive potential of gold to stress depends upon the degree to which its mined coupled with intrinsic utilization in various markets. Which could fluctuate upwards or down.

Bitcoin might be considered antifragile in a more literal sense if its deflationary trend consistently fluctuates towards scarcity and increased valuation throughout its lifespan.

These are gross oversimplifications given the large number of variables and potential contingencies. The term antifragile could imply an intrinsic motive or reason for assets to continue positive valuation trends in the face of uncertainty, doubt or fear. Which could be a bit of an exaggeration on the humanizing scale of things.
2278  Economy / Economics / Re: Where the top world Elite Rich guys invest on: October 09, 2020, 11:06:02 PM
Top Rich elite rotchilds  
Its interesting they sold  casinos hotels shares just Right time




If we're discussing legendary ruling elites like the Rothchilds. Their strategy may be to control money supply, central banks, regulators, issuing of currency. Et al.

There's always a question of who owns private institutions like the federal reserve. Who directs banking cartels. Who dictates European Union policy behind the scenes.

I think buying and selling hotels or common stock to conduct illicit insider trading like coinbase could be a little beneath them. Whoever owns the federal reserve could be the type to aim higher than that.

Of course its difficult if not impossible to avoid venturing heavily into conspiracy theories on topics like these. Everything I said here could be 100% incorrect. It can be interesting to think about though.
2279  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Quantum resistance on: October 06, 2020, 11:46:48 PM
I think some are missing the key points of quantum computer technology.

#1  Quantum computers promise exponentially greater processing power over today's most powerful supercomputers.

#2  Exponentially greater processing power implies problems related to breaking cryptography that take years to solve with today's technology, would theoretically take only days or weeks.

#3  Every claim to fame associated with quantum computer technology revolves around greater computational capacity at affordable cost. Through a significantly higher bit density of registers. A glance at whitepapers or news stories where quantum computer researchers claim to have made a computer with "100,000 qbit registers" (or whatever they call them) tells you what they're building doesn't resemble a true quantum computer in the least.

Machines the media labels "quantum computers" today offer no advantage in computation or clock speed. They cannot solve problems faster, more efficiently or utilizing less electricity in contrast to normal computers. They're marketing gimmicks with no real proof of concept that can be benchmarked to prove they offer any advantage.

People discuss quantum computers without seeming to recognize the technology for them does not currently exist.
2280  Economy / Economics / Re: Australia to Spend $575M on Tech Including Blockchain to Boost Pandemic Recovery on: October 05, 2020, 11:31:35 PM
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced the federal government has set aside nearly A$800 million (US$575 million) to invest in digital technologies as part of its coronavirus recovery plan.

Blockchain technology gets a specific mention with a $6.9 million initiative that will see two pilots aimed to cut business compliance costs.



Less than 1% of their recovery fund is devoted to bitcoin and crypto.

If their goal is to cut business compliance costs through crypto. It might be more effective to offer tax cuts or credits to bitcoin users to encourage crypto agnostic businesses to adopt it. The advantage with tax cuts is them requiring little or no liability spending. Bitcoin and crypto probably aren't taxed enough for cuts to have any impact.

With the united states economy currently being repressed by corona virus lockdowns. Nations like australia might look to take advantage of america's negative economic situation to expand their own economies at america's expense.
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