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2941  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: August 31, 2023, 04:48:03 PM
Easy, they're Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Chelsea will not able to finish in the top four because Nkunku suffer long term injury and there are many players are currently injured too. I think it's already a big achievement if Chelsea can finish in 7th position because they're not that good.

West Ham, Newcastle, and Tottenham might look convincing, but they're not able to maintain their good performance for long term.

Not so easy as you think. For example, the probability that United will be in the top 4 is estimated by bookmakers as 2.20. Want to earn an easy 120% profit? Bet on them  Wink Here are the quotes:

Manchester City 1.02

Arsenal 1.44

Liverpool 1.53

Manchester United 2.20

Newcastle United 2.20

Chelsea 2.50

Tottenham Hotspur 3.75

Brighton And Hove Albion 5.00

As you can see, the odds of United, Newcastle and Chelsea are almost the same. In addition, even Tottenham and Brighton have their chances.
If we do not take the race for the title, then we are in for an exciting fight.
2942  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: August 31, 2023, 04:37:15 PM
For me the most "shocking" thing in this season its the performacne of Luton Town team, man they are playing really bad, they look like shit, they start the game and put their ass against the goal, how do you want to stay in Premier League playing in that way?

Everton seems like they are again in the same mood as the past season, not looking good. And Manchester United its another disaster, saved by the referee against wolves and for bad decissions take it by  Nothingam Forest.

The Premier League is probably the strongest league in the world if you take the average level (or just discard the first 4 and last 4 teams), apparently Luton is not yet ready to compete at this level.

Yes, it's too early to look at the league table, but I always look at the club and its "deviation from the average", where the average is the place that is "fair" for it. At the moment, West Ham are outdoing themselves. So are doing Tottenham (especially with the loss of Kane), although Tottenham's cup defeat yesterday brought them back a little to average, so I added their victory over Burnley to one of my multis.

West Ham avrage must be top 10 but below 6, this for me is Moyes effect. He can even chase Europa, but nothing more, you're right. Regarding Spurs, Madisson maybe replace Kane? Manchester United is the problem. I see them play sometimes it's terrible like Chelsea but they still get top5 how?? It never averages for that team.

Even if Madisson replaces Kane, it's normal for Tottenham to be in 8th place  Cheesy United are lucky so far, even before the season I was sure that this season would be less successful for them than the previous one (although many began to predict a fight with City for the title) and judging by the game United is showing, it will be so.
2943  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: I will pass KYC later is a bad idea on: August 31, 2023, 04:26:39 PM
By the way, there is another huge disadvantage of going through the KYC in advance: if we are dealing with a dishonest casino, then they can make money by selling our data to third parties. Judging by the fact that there are a lot of similar goods on dark markets, many services earn money by this (I don’t believe that all of them were “hacked”).

Good point, but even legit casinos (or other businesses) can have customer data information "leaks" which I suspect, a lot of times, could be due to some rogue employees stealing and selling data on the dark market. This happens on all levels, including banks.

Yes it's true. But we are talking about the KYC in the context of what it may be needed if we win big and then in order to withdraw the winnings the casino will ask us to pass the KYC to comply with the rules of the AML. Thus, the real need for the passage of the KYC arises when we have won big. Unfortunately, this rarely happens (and not with every gambler), so it’s not worth rushing through the KYC.
2944  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Hypothetical Question on: August 30, 2023, 04:17:52 PM
From the point of view of mathematics, if we know that the victory is 100% guaranteed, we must bet all our money plus borrow as much money as possible to earn as much as possible. The problem is that reality is different from mathematical reasoning and loss can happen even with a supposedly 100% chance of winning. Therefore, sober-minded people will limit their risk in any case and will not play with borrowed money.
The reality will often be different than what was said before, where a 100% guaranteed win will be difficult to get. It's still profitable if we can still win, say 40%, but it's not worth doing if we lose it all. For this reason, we have to think rationally that getting a 100% guaranteed win is difficult, so we better keep placing as big bets as we can afford. By doing that, even if we lose, that amount won't make us regret it and be sad because it's the amount we can really afford.

The profitability of a bet depends not only on the probability of guessing the outcome, but also on what the win multiplier is. For example, if we guess with a probability of only 1%, but the multiplier is x500, then we are in a huge plus.

But some people are tempted to hear offers of 100% guaranteed winning because they rarely get offers like that, so they will try to bet all in, plus borrow as much money from other people as possible. They really hope they can get a big win this time because they bet with big money. They don't predict what will happen if the bet is lost, and they lose all their money, including the borrowed money. Oh boy, they would be in very big trouble.

I think anyone who interacts with people (leads a socially active life) very often encounters such proposals. Fraudsters, advertisers, etc. always promise a lot. It seems to me that any adult should get used to weeding out such proposals immediately.
2945  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Still not a safe practice even if it works on: August 30, 2023, 04:07:27 PM
You say that like it's a bad thing to break the law  Grin
You are too subjective in this matter. If you live in a civilized country that respects human rights, then this does not mean that everyone lives in such countries. Probably in most countries of the world people suffer from the oppression of groups that have seized power, so breaking the law is not something bad, but just a way to exercise their rights.
Law is given by people with authority and in this industry  those are gambling site owners or providers. If it is law in general then we would mostly be guilty given that gambling as an activity is prohibited to many countries so what makes us better than others? Also, those who are using Vpn are the ones at risk of being taken advantage of simply because of irregularities with network and overall accessibility to the site.

Maybe our own opinion? If we want to fully trust the states, then why do we need decentralization and bitcoin? I myself determine what is normal for me, and if there is some kind of moronic law, then for me it does not represent something sacred - its violation is only the price for access to what I need. If I am willing to pay this price, then I take the risk, if not, then no.
2946  Local / Разное / Re: Майнинг 2023 жив! (не крипта) on: August 30, 2023, 02:35:16 PM
Небольшой отчетец за август.

Для меня это насыщенный месяц (много дат + лето-отдых) поэтому Игру №2 даже не открывал, особо не активничал.
Но тем не менее в работу введен новый системник xeon e5 2680 v4, 32 Gb оперативки, 512 ssd, rx 570 8 Gb + монитор к нему (запускаем новый куст, да) в затраты все внесено.

Вывел 70к, на руках 50к в венчуре (держать буду минимум до апреля, не знаю на какой точке хочу выйти), 80к в пыли (выходить по чуть-чуть начну когда курс превратит эту сумму в >100к), в вечном шмоте 50к, в оперативном обороте хз сколько >50к точно.
2947  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: I will pass KYC later is a bad idea on: August 30, 2023, 02:17:57 PM
It turns out that there is no dilemma. After all, if we play in a dishonest casino, then we won’t get our winnings even with KYC, even without KYC. But if we play in an honest casino, then we will receive our winnings after we pass the KYC. It turns out that if you look at it this way, then there is simply no point in going through the KYC in advance (including because the chances of a big win are low).
Dishonest casinos then in any game by the user will be cheated they only intend to highlight the customer's money so why KYC first if we already know even the casino is dishonest?

I understand this statement, even if you win but play an unfair casino then the winnings will be withheld for various reasons as the user cannot do much even though he has passed the KYC.
Yes we already know a fair casino here, so no need to worry even if we don't KYC the winnings will still be ours.

By the way, there is another huge disadvantage of going through the KYC in advance: if we are dealing with a dishonest casino, then they can make money by selling our data to third parties. Judging by the fact that there are a lot of similar goods on dark markets, many services earn money by this (I don’t believe that all of them were “hacked”).
2948  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: August 30, 2023, 01:53:36 PM
Maybe I will say irrational things, but this is how I see the situation: West Ham after 4 rounds 10 points and second place (along with Arsenal, etc.)? I do not believe. Tottenham is similar, although the bet on them seems to me more reliable (even despite the fact that their odds are higher). The rest of the picks look in line with their odds, and PSG even looks profitable.

I get you, the table makes zero sense if you look at it this early, except for City and Luton Town, even Everton being in their bad spot makes no sense to me but I see the odds as good returns when you make calculations of expected point return.

That to me is the beauty of draws (easy vs hard). PSG have Mbappe back, it will get lower and lower odds from now on.

Yes, it's too early to look at the league table, but I always look at the club and its "deviation from the average", where the average is the place that is "fair" for it. At the moment, West Ham are outdoing themselves. So are doing Tottenham (especially with the loss of Kane), although Tottenham's cup defeat yesterday brought them back a little to average, so I added their victory over Burnley to one of my multis.
2949  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: August 30, 2023, 01:46:56 PM
Interesting events tonight in the English premier league carabao cup. Follow me!

Fulham 1-1 Tottenham - Fulham has knocked out Tottenham Hotspur from the carabao cup on penalties
Plymouth 2-4 Crystal Palace - Palace thrash plymouth away from home to qualify for the next round.
Swansea 2-3 Bournemouth - Bournemouth also qualify to the next round after winning away from home.
Newport 1-1 Brentford - brentford also qualified for the next round on penalties

My take; why do you think the premier league sides struggled so much against league one and championship clubsideS?

The usual picture for the Cup of any national championship. This is the third (at best) priority for clubs from the Premier League, therefore, in games with obvious outsiders, it is mainly the squad of the rotation that plays. But the closer the final stages are, the fiercer the fight becomes and in fact the best clubs always take the title - if you look at history, there are almost all the winners from the Premier League, and the first three in terms of the number of trophies are Liverpool - City - United.
2950  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: August 30, 2023, 01:36:48 PM
I learned a funny thing just yesterday: it turns out that the Arab Champions Cup that Al-Nasr recently won is a friendly tournament (since FIFA does not recognize the existence of a football organization of Arab countries), so formally the title and goals scored in this tournament do not go to the "official" offset. It is clear that these are bureaucratic nuances that do not devalue this title in any way, but it was fun to watch the next wave of confrontation between haters and fanboys of Ronaldo on this topic.
2951  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: August 30, 2023, 01:29:48 PM
Close results are not always evidence of equal strength of the teams. For example, PSV made no sense to strain against the Rangers, given the fact that they had a return game at home where they could comfortably resolve the issue. It's like City vs Leipzig - 0-0 away and 7-0 at home. Here the balance of power is different, but I think that the situation is similar. And by the way, I think that betting on PSV with odds of 1.52 is a good choice.
Indeed.
Champions League results are more tricky than domestic leagues, sometimes they are just random.
Three games were played tonight and as expected Galatasaray, Young Boys and Braga all qualified. We will see if the rest will qualify or not by tomorrow.

Especially if it's a group stage where the separate game isn't that important and some big clubs (seeded in Pot 1 and Pot 2) are fielding some players in the rotation. Remembering last season, I think that in the first two games of the group stage it makes sense to make a lot of small bets on outsiders - on average this can be profitable.
2952  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The fight between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. Who you betting on? on: August 30, 2023, 12:53:28 PM
@Sithara007 if there was ever a real fight Elon would have no advantage at all because he’s not trained as Mark is and while there’re some past records of his training I sincerely doubt that he could take on Mark. Furthermore I believe that this was a coordinated story to drive up their user engagement and they both have succeeded in that attempt however since there’s no fight maybe it’s time to close this topic till new news about the fight come out?

I wonder what user involvement has increased after this story? In an updated twitter or instagram? Elon definitely has no problems with the attention of the public and he has a bunch of other ways to once again raise some kind of noise. I think that he was trolling Zuckerberg (maybe not entirely successful), but in my opinion the trolling was successful in a certain sense and Zuckerberg behaved more like a caveman than like a solid businessman. At least Elon lives up to his image in this story, but Zuckerberg does not.
2953  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ POLL ] The Unification Fight: FURY vs USYK sponsored by Utopia on: August 30, 2023, 12:44:54 PM
I think you cut the better part of the statement,

Quote
It would probably be a better fight if Usyk and AJ fought me both together, like a tag-team. Just keep switching between rounds. I’d actually batter them both on the same night, that’s how easy they are.”

So not sure if we would to take that statement seriously though, I mean it's obvious that he just wanted some media attention because everything is on Usyk right now as he won over Dubois. And as you have said, it's just pure boast on his side, nothing else.

I didn't cut anything. You yourself admit that this is boasting, and I directly wrote about it too:

The cowardly Fury is so stupid that in the stream of his boasting he told the pure truth:

The funniest thing is that either he's not very smart, or his PR manager, so in a stream of bragging (which is probably nothing bad for a media person), he let it slip and told the truth.

Everyone understands this, here is Ruiz’s recent opinion:

“Is Fury ducking Usyk? I think so. Everybody right now wants the easy fights.”
https://boxing-social.com/news/former-champ-fury-ducking-usyk/
2954  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ POLL ] The Unification Fight: FURY vs USYK sponsored by Utopia on: August 30, 2023, 12:25:47 PM
The cowardly Fury is so stupid that in the stream of his boasting he told the pure truth:

"If he (Usyk) beat me it’s like ‘Oh my god, he beat the mammoth who no one couldn’t be beat!’ I’m not going to give somebody the opportunity to gain that. Hell no."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/boxing/tyson-fury-boxing-fight-news-30820007

I wrote about it in this thread, and now stupid Fury has confirmed it, although such an admission is rather shameful. So, exhibition fights, circus performances, fights with bums are ahead of us, but not boxing performed by Fury.
2955  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Биржа Binance 🔶 on: August 30, 2023, 12:01:18 PM
А вот это уже ИМХО очень серьёзный звоночек о том, что у биржи всё не очень весело уже идёт. Всё остальное это мелочи, а вот собственный псевдостейбл ИМХО им должен был давать существенную часть финансовых возможностей и, как следствие, заработков. Если они решили его обнулить, значит, уже не хватает сил отбрехиваться по разных векторам атаки на них. Персонально мне Binance, конечно, вообще не упёрлась, все эти централизованные проекты, особенно с тотальными кусями, мне не товарищи, но если этот шкаф упадёт, то мы его потом будем вспоминать в ряду самых громких шкафопадений. И я был бы совсем не против, если бы этот шкаф скопычивался медленно, а не одним резким бахом. Grin

А в чем проблема одного большого падения? Наоборот было бы хорошо чтобы махом куча щитков сдохла - во-первых, расти с низкой базы легче, а во-вторых появлялись бы новые проекты в освободившейся нише.

Единственное чему я удивлен это в последовательности скукоживания банана, по идее регуляторы должны были мочкануть для начала их псевдокрипту на псевдоблокчейне - признать либо ценными бумагами, либо схемой Понци (либо комбинацией этих явлений). Хотя если рассуждать с точки зрения "правообладателя" на бакс, то всё логично - сначала скамера надо прогнать со своей поляны (доллар), а потом уже добивать за всё остальное.
2956  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Последний вагон на север on: August 30, 2023, 09:06:10 AM
~Я просто обозначил себе точку выхода и жду ее.

Если не секрет какова точка выхода?
Лично я считаю что выходить меньше 100к смысла вообще нет, но и тут много опций. Если эти 100к будут достигнуты на очередном витке кризиса/ковида и т.д. при заливе рынков баблом, то 100к будут выглядеть крайне скромно для фикса. Плюс надо смотреть на опции куда переложиться, но тут у каждого индивидуальная ситуация.
2957  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: August 29, 2023, 09:29:44 PM
all these teams can go into main round of the Champions League with their better quality and performance.
I agree especially when you see the first leg result with whether a draw and a single goal difference. In this case, everything could occur.
In my opinion, Galatasaray, Young Boys, Copenhagen, PSV Eindhoven, Antwerp and Braga will pass.
Some matches might be influenced by the location since several less favourite teams will play home.

Close results are not always evidence of equal strength of the teams. For example, PSV made no sense to strain against the Rangers, given the fact that they had a return game at home where they could comfortably resolve the issue. It's like City vs Leipzig - 0-0 away and 7-0 at home. Here the balance of power is different, but I think that the situation is similar. And by the way, I think that betting on PSV with odds of 1.52 is a good choice.
2958  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: August 29, 2023, 09:00:04 PM
Whenever I read the Ronaldo news in the internet and I see that the man is still at the helms of affairs in his club. He is still scoring goals and still contesting with young players like Mbappe and Haaland, I begin to imagine the kind of man Ronaldo is.
Honestly speaking, that guy is a model both on pitch and outside the pitch. Mane  is another dedicated footballer who Liverpool carelessly left to leave the club. With the combination of this good and determined players more things will be achieved in that club. Ronaldo will likely be the highest goal scorer of the season.

Ronaldo got good level players to help and this raised his performance, but I don’t think he will take first place in the scorer race (at least it won’t be easy) - other teams also have good bunches of players and sometimes against the weakest clubs in the League they will do hat tricks and even pokers. It is unlikely that Neymar will be in the race, but Benzema most likely yes, the main thing is that injuries stop bothering him.
2959  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: August 29, 2023, 08:52:38 PM
A separate outcome does not say anything about the correctness of the quotes, because even if Newcastle won, there would be an obvious discrepancy with the quotes of the bookmakers: we would have 100% of Newcastle's wins, while the bookmakers predicted only 40%  Wink
As for the upcoming game, I think that Arsenal is even a little underestimated - they started modestly, but United are just terrible.
I completely agree with you though, but to be honest, which the odds am seeing, I can't say for sure that Arsenal is underestimated as you said, this is particularly based on how Arsenal has been playing lately, they started well indeed, but recently, winning seems to have become a big problem for them, look at your last game with Fulham, the almost lost that game, but at the end of the day , it ended in a draw, something I am really not proud of as an Arsenal fan.

So honestly, I can't see that Arsenal is underrated, in fact to be honest, I think Man United are the ones that are underrated, but all the same, my fingers are crossed and I am really looking forward to watching Arsenal beat Man United, but then again, I am not going to underrate Man United because I believe they do have a chance against Arsenal.

Hmmm... I support United, but I see that in the first round they won due to a referee's error (the penalty that the referee did not appoint in the last minute). Then a natural defeat from a weakened Tottenham, and then a clown match against Nottingham. Of course they have a chance against Arsenal (like any EPL team against any other EPL team) but I don't know how United can be considered undervalued here.
2960  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: August 29, 2023, 06:03:01 PM
How do you like this, I haven't done multibet with almost all EPL for a long time.



Maybe I will say irrational things, but this is how I see the situation: West Ham after 4 rounds 10 points and second place (along with Arsenal, etc.)? I do not believe. Tottenham is similar, although the bet on them seems to me more reliable (even despite the fact that their odds are higher). The rest of the picks look in line with their odds, and PSG even looks profitable.
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