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1981  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: October 31, 2023, 08:48:49 PM
On the other hand, we can argue that if Real had a top striker, Real would have won 4-1. What's the point of talking about what could have been, while Bellingham is already in Real Madrid and doing his job? Barcelona's players could also do their job.
Bellingham is in great form as a striker at Real Madrid. Bellingham's contract with Real Madrid has introduced the English star as a midfielder but the midfielder has become Real Madrid's top goal scorer. Bellingham has been scoring in almost every match and his goals have led Real Madrid to victory. In the last El Clasico match we saw Real Madrid score two goals against Barcelona and both of those goals came from Bellingham.  

It's not fair to say that Real Madrid would have scored more goals if they had another striker because whenever Real Madrid has a main striker, Bellingham might be repositioned and if he is repositioned he won't score as much as he did this time.  .

But suppose that if Real Madrid had a top striker like Mbappe, Haaland, Osimhen, etc. then they would be even more dangerous in attack, quite logically, right? The fact that Bellingham would occupy a different position does not mean that he would score less, it all depends on the scheme of the game, if the 9 plays under the 10, which distracts the entire defense, then it often happens that the 9 scores more, but of course in this case, the 9 is also a striker, although formally it can also be a midfielder.
1982  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: October 31, 2023, 07:08:30 PM
This season, Manchester United still needs balance in their squad so they can make improvements to the team's strength, because there are several lines in the Manchester United team that are still not strong enough and are even quite weak, so that is what Erik Ten Hag must be able to fix now. Because if improvements to the balance of power in each line cannot be fixed by Erik Ten Hag, of course this will mean he won't last long in the Manchester United team, because the team management itself has also seen how unsatisfactory performances are still occurring at Manchester United this season.

United's weakest line is Ten Hag himself  Grin He bought 1.5 squads at his own request (and it is suspected that there was a certain amount of corruption/conflict of interest there) and justifying the terrible results by the fact that they didn’t buy someone for him are just excuses. Each coach works with what he has - there are always unexpected injuries, transfers (sometimes to prison haha) but the team does not consist of 11 people and not from one scheme. A qualified coach constantly adapts to circumstances. Under Ten Hag's leadership, the players are deteriorating and the club has a toxic atmosphere.
1983  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: October 31, 2023, 06:58:56 PM
After seeing Newcastle struggle against Dortmund that much I also think they will have a hard time reaching next round in the Champions League. They had this difficulty even in their home stadium I mean. I'm not sure if they have learned their lesson to retaliate Dortmund in Germany next time. They had better do so if they want to see later rounds.

I feel like Newcastle can get at least one point against PSG (maybe) and Milan if we don't see a big change in those teams. Newcastle demolished PSG as you can remember and resisted Milan in San Siro really great.

PSG are much stronger in home matches though so that's why there is a maybe there.

In terms of scoring chances, the game with Dortmund was not as bad as the result. This time the random was on the side of Dortmund, but it is not a fact that it will be on the side of Dortmund in Dortmund. I think in the next round PSG will defeat Milan and, one might say, guarantees (at least dramatically increases the chances) a place in the 1/8. Thus, in the last game of the group stage for Newcastle, they will have to beat demotivated Milan at home. And take at least 3 points in one of the away games - against Dortmund or PSG. This is quite real.
1984  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: October 31, 2023, 06:52:09 PM
In fact, I don’t even know what the club’s management should do now. Chelsea is no longer fighting for the title, nor for the top 4, given that the gap from 4th place is 11 points and there are no random teams there (plus there are other contenders like Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brighton). Participation in the Europa League probably has the only potential benefit in the form (if won) of a direct ticket to the Champions League. Chelsea don't need the Conference League at all. I don’t even know what Chelsea can do in such a situation, maybe even just wait until the end of the season to make changes not urgently but as planned.

Chelsea is very far from what we saw from then in the past and they are not racing at the top of the Premier League anymore, in fact, I don't think if there is any chance for them to be on the first five teams at the end of the season considering results we saw from them so far. Mourinho can't help this team even if he can make changes like Pochettino did when he joined Chelsea and then this team will need some time to get in the good form and end in they will just spend some money on Mourinho.

Theoretically, Chelsea should gain a slight advantage in the middle and end of the season with most of the teams at the top of the table fighting on two fronts, but in what form will this advantage be obtained? There may be 5-7 “extra” points that will be scored in personal meetings. But this will definitely not give the opportunity to enter the top 4. And as I wrote before, there is no big difference between 6th place or 12th, the season will still be rated as a failure. I’m even interested in what goals the Chelsea management will voice as desirable (I mean something real, and not repeat the City’s treble).
1985  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: October 31, 2023, 06:42:00 PM
~
After the Fury = Ngannou fight, Usyk showed confidence that he could beat Fury I've seen both their interview and Usyk wants the December 23 match to happen whereas Fury's promoter wants it next year, obviously to recuperate from Fury's embarrassment.

What embarrassment?  Grin This is a deliberate strategy that the coward Fury followed to avoid a rematch with Klitschko, and then trying to avoid a fight with Usyk. Apparently the fight with Ngannou brought Fury back to earth (to the canvas haha) and he realized that a fight with Usik would be too risky. Now I again think that we will not see this fight because Fury will avoid it in all possible ways.
1986  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are You Tax Efficient With Your Gambling Habbits? on: October 31, 2023, 05:31:26 PM
I never thought about paying taxes on gambling. The main reason is probably that I live in a garbage country and there is no point in paying taxes here at all, but even if I were in a civilized country, I would hardly pay taxes on gambling. The essence of the deal is unclear to me (for me, paying taxes is a deal) - what do I get in return from the state? If I owned a casino, I would have no questions, but why I should pay taxes, given that the casino pays for all government services with its taxes, is not clear to me.

Typically, it's businesses that are responsible for paying taxes, not the gamblers themselves. However, there are certain laws in place that can appear quite unreasonable. It's rare to encounter a situation where a gambler is required to pay taxes, which may imply that the gambler is consistently winning and potentially impacting the casino's finances. Nevertheless, we are obligated to follow the law, even if it seems unfair. In the end, dealing with the consequences is the only option, as it's not advisable to go against the government.

As you can see, in the first post it is written that in some countries it is the player who is required to pay taxes and for this he needs to keep records of wins/losses and all turnover. This is complete nonsense because I don’t have a personal accountant who would take care of the thousands of bets that I make, for example, in dice.
And by the way, I don’t have to obey the law, what kind of stupidity is that? In reality, if a person follows the law, he will be the most shameful scoundrel at the animal level. You apparently live in a civilized country and think that the whole world is as good as yours, but in reality, in 90% of countries, the law is just a means to oppress citizens.
1987  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Greed or risk on: October 31, 2023, 05:25:57 PM
Greed will always come to you, whatever the results you receive from gambling. If you win, greed will become even greater. And if you lose, greed will also tell you to play one more round, and if you still lose, greed will keep telling you to try again and again. ~

I think this algorithm of emotions works if a person has an addiction (of varying degrees), because if you take simple human instincts/logic, then if you win something, then you need to take it and run away. If you lose, all the more you need to run away because losses are harmful and a person always wants to avoid losses. That is why the main efforts of the casino are aimed at ensuring that players remain in the game for as long as possible because this will cause them to become addicted.
1988  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ballon d'Or discussion and odds on: October 31, 2023, 05:20:25 PM
You pretend that you don’t understand the problem - the one who is recognized as the best should show not just “average” results in the farm league, but something truly amazing, as Haaland did. Messi was knocked out of the Champions League in the 1/8 finals two times in a row without scoring or assisting. The fact that he will receive another stolen Ballon d'Or is only evidence of ongoing corruption.
Exactly, as the best in the world you need to show more than an average performance which Haaland did, he won the champions league, premier league, FA cup as well and was the highest goal scorer in the premier league, he scored nearly 50 goals and they say it’s not enough, so ridiculous Grin. Most people who think like @temple here are just blind messi fans who just don’t want to admit the fact that this is pure robbery, Haaland was robbed this year and even messi himself admitted Haaland deserved it. Messi did nothing spectacular this year he only won the world cup and why didn’t players who won the world cup back in the years messi won Ballon D’or win the Award? The france Award is corrupt and it is not awarded based on merit anymore because this is an obvious robbery and i can never take the Ballon d’or award seriously anymore.

Messi went to PSG and failed to show impact and ran to the MLS and still couldn’t show any real impact in the MLS league, his team have been suffering back to back losses and are about to be relegated and they still went on to gift him the award, it’s so funny.

Hahaha, you just don’t understand: according to the logic of the fanboys, if a team wins, then it’s Messi’s merit, but if it loses, then it’s the team’s problem, Messi has nothing to do with it  Grin
Everything else works exactly the same - if Messi failed at the World Cup, then it is not important, if he failed everywhere except the World Cup, then the World Cup is important.

In general, it’s sad that Messi could have gone down in history as a great athlete even from “one team,” (far from the best, but at the level of Thomas Müller, Totti, etc.) but he went down as a great thief.
1989  Local / Разное / Re: Форум недоступен из России on: October 30, 2023, 03:43:23 PM
Относительно нестабильной работы Телеграма в связи с дагестанскими событиями ничего не слышал, впервые прочитал именно здесь на форуме.
Аналогично ничего такого с телеграммом не заметил.

От региона зависит. Я включаю ВПН и телега работает идеально. Без ВПН лежит. Очевидно что глушится скорее всего даже с помощью ресурсов самой телеги. Такой вот Пашка Дуров револьюсионер  Grin
1990  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Greed or risk on: October 30, 2023, 11:31:34 AM
I saw this image below on one of my friend's WhatsApp statuses earlier today. I don't know if the game was played by him or if it was an image saved from somewhere, but the image got me thinking, and we got into a debate because of that.
 
I was telling someone that if I'm the one to have such a slip and the game is already showing me to cash out such an amount of money, which is equal to $865 based on our local exchange rate, seeing such an amount as cash out available and leaving it will make me appear like someone who is too greedy, but the guy was telling me it's not being greedy but it's all about taking risks. The debate didn't end well, so I decided to bring this up here to see the responses from experienced gamblers.
 
Lucky for anyone who ever has that bet slip, it seems like the game played in his favour.


This is an individual choice and you will probably make different decisions in different situations, but whatever you choose, you should remember that when you cash out, the casino takes an additional margin from you. From a mathematical point of view, it is better to take a risk and find out whether the bet will work or not.
But of course, if this is a huge amount that you are risking once in your life (in this case, mathematical calculations regarding optimal behavioral strategies are not important), then it is better to make a cash out.
1991  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are You Tax Efficient With Your Gambling Habbits? on: October 30, 2023, 11:14:36 AM
I never thought about paying taxes on gambling. The main reason is probably that I live in a garbage country and there is no point in paying taxes here at all, but even if I were in a civilized country, I would hardly pay taxes on gambling. The essence of the deal is unclear to me (for me, paying taxes is a deal) - what do I get in return from the state? If I owned a casino, I would have no questions, but why I should pay taxes, given that the casino pays for all government services with its taxes, is not clear to me.
1992  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: October 30, 2023, 10:59:16 AM
We all know how sometimes Fury isnt mentally stable, and I hope that this fight did not make any influence on him. Fury must admin he did not take his opponent seriously and did all that only for money, otherwise that fact that he has lost to a boxing newcomer will eat him for a very long time. But, if not mistaken, Fury left the event without giving a post fight conference. Which makes me think that the result of the fight actually pulled some strings in his head.

I hope that after such a disgrace, Fury will not start doing what he does best - avoiding a difficult fight and we will still see a unification fight. But if now he has realized that he needs to seriously get in shape, then it seems to me that it is too late - even if the fight is in January, he simply does not have time for this.
And I would also be interested to know how the bookmakers’ opinions have changed after what everyone saw in the fight with Ngannou. I can suggest that Fury is still the favorite, but the odds for Usyk’s victory will be modest.
1993  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: October 30, 2023, 10:49:53 AM
Good question, but maybe the owners have fallen into a trap from which they want to get out, even at the cost of the fact that the coach does not suit them very much. If we change the coach now, then a 100% new coach (if it is a strong coach with a name and not a technical figure) will say: I didn’t put this squad together, I want changes and Chelsea will again be forced to spend money (of which they have already spent a lot). Maybe based on this, Pochettino’s position is strong and he will continue to be forgiven for bad results.

I am now sure that the coach needs to be changed and someone like Mourinho should take over. The individual players are strong and the coach has to build a good team from these individual players. Not every coach can do something like that and if the club doesn't want to end the season without qualifying for a European competition, they should take action quickly.

In fact, I don’t even know what the club’s management should do now. Chelsea is no longer fighting for the title, nor for the top 4, given that the gap from 4th place is 11 points and there are no random teams there (plus there are other contenders like Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brighton). Participation in the Europa League probably has the only potential benefit in the form (if won) of a direct ticket to the Champions League. Chelsea don't need the Conference League at all. I don’t even know what Chelsea can do in such a situation, maybe even just wait until the end of the season to make changes not urgently but as planned.
1994  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: October 30, 2023, 09:18:12 AM
Barcelona's performance in La Liga is not as bad as it is said, you definitely know that Barcelona has only suffered 1 defeat in 10 matches even though they are 4 points away from the current leaders. Xavi has a great chance of taking his team to the round of 16 after getting a relatively weak draw group, but everything cannot be guaranteed because the 3 teams they are playing against cannot be underestimated.

Barcelona has won 3/6 group stage matches, especially the first 3 matches. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Manchester City are 3 other teams that also have the same record, but on paper Barcelona is a team that tends to be weaker than the 3 teams above, but Barcelona is still a competitive team.

When we talk about top teams (or those teams that claim this status) we need to look at the results in the “big” games. Barcelona have only had one such game this season so far and they lost it. At the same time, in La Liga they drew three times with obvious outsiders, and Real lost points in games with Atletico and Sevilla, so in my opinion this is not just a 4-point difference, it is a more significant difference in the results. In the Champions League, the whole thing will begin from the playoff stage and much will depend on the result of the draw, maybe serious games will begin only in 1/4.
1995  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: October 30, 2023, 09:10:37 AM
Manchester City made a great win yesterday in the derby and it showed that Manchester United has big problems as a team.I am not basing this only on the game of yesterday as that would not make sense but the fact that Manchester United was totally dominated in the game and they barely could manage to attack showed just that,they need a change in mentality and I said from a long time now the choosing of Ten Haag as their coach was a big mistake that the consequences are being felt with every passing day,the mistakes needs to be corrected.

Ten Hag proved to me 100% that Solskjaer was a good coach, apparently Solskjaer achieved the maximum with United and this had to be objectively recognized.
Ten Hag is just bad. And besides the fact that he is incompetent, it seems to me that he is also crazy - after every lost game he says that everything is fine, the team is progressing and refers to bad luck and comes up with other excuses. In fact, of the victories United have had this season, I would say 3 were pure luck. And even so, they are off to their worst start in 37 years (lol).
1996  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: October 30, 2023, 09:01:07 AM
In fact, Real Madrid was really close to losing this match and if they didn't have Gavi Jude Bellingham in their team, they could lose it easily. I think Bellingham just saved his team and without this player, Real Madrid could even lose their place in the league easily.
Regarding Belingham and Gavi, I saw Gavi tackled the ball and this could caused Belingham injured and maybe that's why Belingham wanted this player to ask him to play smarter as you said.



On the other hand, we can argue that if Real had a top striker, Real would have won 4-1. What's the point of talking about what could have been, while Bellingham is already in Real Madrid and doing his job? Barcelona's players could also do their job.
It's funny that Ballingham, after Gavi hit him in the legs, called him a kid and asked him not to do that again  Grin
1997  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: October 30, 2023, 08:52:16 AM
easy win for Inter versus Roma.
Game dominated, 17 shoots vs 3 I think.

The hard part was to score but the game has been dominate, not even close.

Inter is the favorite for winning the league.

Roma played the bus, so it is not surprising that Inter “dominated”, but in fact Roma could have defended 0-0 if they had been a little lucky, and it is far from a fact that against a team focused on a better result than 0-0, Inter will be successful.
It's sad that Napoli and Milan tied, in fact both teams lost points and their position in the race worsened. Milan's streak without a win has increased, I wonder if they will be able to overcome this sudden crisis.
1998  Local / Разное / Re: Форум недоступен из России on: October 30, 2023, 08:31:47 AM
Видали как сегодня телега работает/не работает? И говорят всего лишь из-за того что дикие обезьяны движуху в аэропорте Дагестана навели. Я далеко от тех мест но проблемы с телегой ощутил на 100%. Представляю как интернет тушить будут при более масштабных событиях, далеко не факт что те ВПН которые работают сейчас продолжат работу когда вообще весь внутренний интернет будут калечить.
1999  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: NFT на биткоине: BRC-20 on: October 30, 2023, 08:21:45 AM
~По $100 заплатишь за транзу и будешь считать, что тебе сильно повезло.  Angry

Ну так есть подозрение что без такой загогулины следующего пампа и не будет. Большая комса отсекает мелкую рыбёшку от того чтобы войти в тему/выйти из темы с фиатом и оставляет только китов/манипулей. Остаются конечно ещё биржи и прочее но работа именно с живым битком мне видится так.
Да и кстати приток на биржи мелкой рыбы как раз в пользу крупных игроков, ведь как известно там всё бабло принадлежит самой бирже, так что пазл складывается.
2000  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: October 29, 2023, 03:47:20 PM
Sevilla dominated more I think, they were 2 goals behind early. it was a mistake and they worked hard to catch up. if the opponent is not Cadiz, I'm sure Sevilla will have difficulty. Cadiz chose to play too defensively after taking the lead, and it was a disaster when their defense had gaps. and that's what Sevilla took advantage of to create more chances. and that succeeded in producing a draw in the match.
Even though they are still lucky they share 1 point, Cadiz still has a lot of evaluation to do.

In terms of shots on target, Sevilla has an obvious advantage of 3-10, but in fact both teams are neighbors in the standings and the result can be considered logical. Although, of course, it annoys me when Sevilla takes away points equally from both Real and outsiders, haha.
By the way, when I saw in the game report that Ramos scored the first goal, I thought “does Ramos continue to score own goals?” but it was Ramos from Cadiz, not Sergio  Grin
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