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2121  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: October 20, 2023, 05:40:57 PM
Dortmund is currently in have good situation and there is a high chance for them to win the game against Werder Bremen because in the last five games, Werder Bremen had they lost three games and won two games while Dortmund never lost a game recently, and they had just one draw maybe the best thing is to bet on Dortmund to be safe.



If we talk about reliability, then I would rather bet on Dortmund double chance. Although even here, knowing the instability of Dortmund, there can be no guarantees and such a bet is essentially meaningless due to the small odds - 1.08. By the way, the fact that Dortmund has no defeats in the Bundesliga yet is rather an argument against them, since usually such positivity does not last long for them  Cheesy
2122  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: October 20, 2023, 05:02:48 PM
The two have something to fight for. Fury long against Francis can say goodbye to his undefeated record, legacy is on the line per se. Francis losing his boxing debut means no other boxing match for him after this. No one else such as Wilder will take him seriously if he loses against Fury. He will once again just stick to MMA in PFL which is an unknown platform to MMA fans.

Mike Tyson I think helped Francis gain more confidence, and with the motivation to make a ton of money in boxing he will do his best.

For Fury, not winning this fight would, of course, be a terrible disaster. But for Ngannou, it seems to me that this will be a simple nuisance that will be compensated by the fact that he will earn as much money as he earned during his entire career in the UFC. Roughly speaking, Ngannou doesn’t care about this defeat at all, he will get the money anyway and I’m sure that he is not going to continue his career in boxing, this is just a fight for money. Another question is that if he wins, he will receive huge prospects, but this looks too fantastic.
2123  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: October 20, 2023, 04:56:42 PM
Opening match tomorrow for Ligue 1 matchday 9 between Le Havre vs Lens, as promotion teams not really poor with Le Havre performance in Ligue 1 with their statistic 2 win, 3 draw and 3 loss. Le Havre have better standings position than Lens with one point remaining but experienced team Lens has chance for continue the impressive after winning from Arsenal in Champion League last match.

Current standings, Ligue 1 seems interested for this season because several teams have fewest points left and opportunity for Le Havre or Lens if can winning this match they will move up until top six standings position. Lens have bad started in this season depend their achievement last season success finish on 2nd position, but in Ligue 1 season 2023/24 with 8 games they have loss four matches.

Lens has fallen very low compared to last season, but we can still assume that so far this result is below their expected result, plus we must assume that the newcomer Le Havre, which now has very mediocre results, won't give a surprise. Based on this, I think that Lance's quote is very attractive, the only thing that can introduce additional randomness is that this game will take place after the break. The current quotes are:

4.5 - 3.5 - 1.9   
2124  Local / Разное / Re: Форум недоступен из России on: October 20, 2023, 04:46:26 PM
Ну не преувеличивай. У Бивейрона ведь посыл другой был. Плохо, конечно, что нас ущемляют; но раз уж у нас нет выбора, то надо найти  в этом что-то полезное. Всё лучше, чем просто ныть и взывать к справедливости. Сколько ни говори "халва", а знания и профит сами по себе не появятся.
Поэтому раз уж запреты есть по факту и мы ничего с этим поделать всё равно  не можем, то вполне логично извлечь из этого хоть какую-то пользу. Но, как правильно заметил Бивейрон, при правильной организации сопротивления можно и профит извлечь и окрепнуть ментально).

Посыл то может и хороший, только вот по факту это все маняфантазии для самоуспокоения. Да, можно ловко научиться всё делать через жопу, но это "преимущество" будет только относительно тех кто не научился, нормальный человек будет на таких ловкачей как на ебанатов/лузеров смотреть.
Грубо говоря рфский "продвинутый" пользователь смотрит на рфского нормиса, который не смог себе ВПН просуетить, свысока. А какой-нибудь датчанин смотрит на обоих как на говно  Grin
2125  Local / Трейдеры / Re: доллар соскамят on: October 20, 2023, 04:34:24 PM
Roll Eyes завидую вашей вере в то что прям существуют те кто будет рвать и метать не в свою пользу (и очевидно под большим риском случайно утонуть в ванной). Я вот почитываю новости об экономических (а на самом деле нет, обычный криминал) преступлениях и "спорах хозяйствующих субъектов", отличий от 90-х не вижу. ,Те же убийства, похищения людей, "слепые" правоохранители и т.д. И это всё не про увровень ларьков, а госкорпорации рфские.
Оно везде так, просто в развитых демократиях пресса работает по другому, те кто писал в поддержку палестины в фейсбуке подтвердят как слаженно работает демократия когда нужно, как быстро прилетает бан в инсте иили мете, поэтому когда нужно, даже квакнуть не успеешь, не то что в страшных бантустанах и папуасиях, где все через одно место. С оккупай воллстрит тоже не сильно кто церемонился, как и с теми, кто посягает на самое главное, на бабки. И финмониторинг после этого покажется просто отрядом спасения.

Да, да, "везде плохо" и "в америке негров бьют" это исконные ватные скрепы. Я уже понял, зачем мне повторять из раза в раз  Cheesy
Бан в фейсбуке, инсте (частные компании кстати, если не нравится их политика то идите в те компании где иная политика или создавайте свою компанию) или еще где конечно равен рфским нарам.

Ну а ликвидация целых наций из-за зеленых бумажек я так понимаю никого не пугает? Когда целые города с землей ровняют вместе с мирными, а потом эти же люди, кто все этого готовил, крышевал и поставлял оружие, потом на "поддержку" всего этого ярдов 100 выделяют это типо норм?

Семиты (если вы про них) друг друга геноцидили еще до появления доллара как такового, так что не сильно понятно о чем вы. То что сейчас одной стороне можно много больше чем другой естетсвенно мне не нравится, но это оффтопик здесь.

Что касается "финкомиссаров", то было бы странно если бы государство не решилось вступить в борьбу за свои же деньги, которые растворяются в экспорте и судя по вою в телеге и постах из серии "ничего не получится" говорит о том, что направление было выбрано верно и постепенно, не сразу конечно, так не бывает, но в итоге курс уйдет ниже 100 и все сработает, просто видимо куш был настолько солидный, а сопротивление настолько сильным, что если бы не остановить всю эту экспортную вольницу, все бы увидели и 120 и 200 и дальше по курсу.  

Ну вот опять плохие бояре... Царь то хороший надеюсь?  Grin
Экономикой некоторое время в ручном режиме можно рулить и курс действительно пойдет куда надо, но это временно. Обращать внимание на отдельные конвульсии и не видеть что рублю стратегически капец как минимум странно.

Почему не в свою? Всегда и везде на любых местах найдутся, люди которые хотят рвать и метать, будь это Финмониторинг, надзор какой-нибудь, да хоть завод. Потому что есть личности, которые очень сильно любят власть, а ею так просто никто не поделиться и не отдаст. Ну а если у такой личности есть связи с правоохранителями или ты и есть он самый, то такого утопить в ванной себе дороже.

Это для вас со стороны есть какие-то "правоохранители", по факту куча группировок и друг друга топят в ванных только так. Почитайте вот канальчик: https://t.me/s/vchkogpu Подивитесь насколько глубока кроличья нора  Roll Eyes
2126  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io ⚽ Champions League ⚽ Newcastle v Dortmund ⚽ (Wednesday, 25 October) on: October 20, 2023, 09:11:29 AM
a. Newcastle
b. 3-2
c. Newcastle
d. Newcastle
e. Yes 
f. Dortmund
g. Newcastle
h. 20'
2127  Local / Разное / Re: Форум недоступен из России on: October 19, 2023, 07:24:22 PM
^ они и его заблокируют. Вы побольше пишите сюда способов всяких разных... Тут же пишите что взялись серьезно, и думаете они не читают эту тему?

Во-первых, думаю не читают, так как сейчас идет ловля крупной рыбы (которой полно по соцсетям, ютубам, тг каналам соответствеющим + всегда можно отслеживать что там с ВПНами в гуглплее по попуярности), а не полутора умельцев с бтт.
Во-вторых, вы правда думаете что будет "секретный" способ доступа к внешнему интернету работоспособность которого будет зависеть именно от его секретности, а не например от принципиальных технических проблем с его баном (как с shadowsocks)?
2128  Local / Юристы / Re: CBDC в России on: October 19, 2023, 07:19:20 PM
~
фиатные деньги такая система из оборота уберет по максимуму. с 14 лет дети смогут использовать цифровой рубль.

Вы перепутали форму денег с сутью. Рубль (равно как и бакс кстати) хоть в наличке, хоть в СБП, хоть в крипте (стейблы) это все равно фиат.

У банков столько много инструментов, благодаря которым они могут зарабатывать, что нам вряд ли стоит беспокоиться о том, как им бедненьким будет сложно после этого. В первую очередь кредиты, которые никуда не денутся.

В топ десятке рфских банков кажется один (альфа) формально не государственный. Фактически уже сейчас дарагие расссияне "выбирают" примерно как в СССР и тенденции делают различия с СССР все менее существенными. Уж за госбанк переживать действительно не стоит - как наебать заработать там всегда найдут способы.
2129  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Relying on gamble wins is dangerous to mental health on: October 19, 2023, 07:12:00 PM
I met a friend who used about $1 to play gamble to win about $2500 in a game of different matches, all the early games went well but the last game cut which made him loose the game.  This lose made him to be sick for 3 days, the reason for his reaction was not because of the money he used to bet but he felt so bad because he has already put all his hope on the money he would have won.

People needs not to put all their hope in games they are not sure of winning, because relying on it can be very dangerous to the mental health. Play gamble and remove your mind from the money that will be gained till it is achieved.

Recently I didn’t win $500 because besides all the outcomes that I guessed, also there was City vs Wolves and they lost it. To some extent, I can understand your friend (although I easily tolerate losses) - when victory is so close, it’s very disappointing to miss out on a win because the “correct” bet didn’t work out. I think he wouldn’t be upset if he didn’t guess the outcome of a game with chances of 5-10; most likely, he was let down by the outcome of some game with a “reliable” chance of 1.1-1.3.
2130  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +91147 units on: October 19, 2023, 07:02:36 PM
Great pick! Gratz  Cool
To be honest, it would never have occurred to me to place this bet (in my opinion, the odds were too small for an away game). I’m probably biased towards teams from Central Asia, but it seems to me that they play weakly in away games, but at home they are stronger than average. But today Zainutdinov broke my stereotypes  Grin

I've been hitting these "expanded UEFA" teams since Nations League started with new slits for EURO qualifications. Back in the day Georgia, Armenia, Azer, Kazakh easily 15/1+ but now they are getting adjustments. At the same time, Scandinavian teams are getting weaker IMO, while they are still seen as firm favourites. The same goes for club matches. Simple H2H stats prove the odds don't match results.

Enjoy these value odds while they last.

My next pick is... surprise, surprise, United to lose again in UCL at Old Trafford. I'll probably find a pick or two in between but this is too good to pass with current odds:

100 units at Sportsbet on Kopenhagn to WIN vs Man Utd @10.24. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 144
Bet ID: 6525b24e4149c6000117ebf8

Running advantage after 22 bets: +2331 (+144)
All-time cumulative: +92,191
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

Yes, I remember how the odds of these teams being less than 10 was perceived as Huh? Therefore, it is now quite difficult to switch to even lower odds.
As for United, it's quite funny to see Copenhagen's odds like this away. Currently the quotes are as follows:

1.42 - 4.90 - 7.20

How far United have fallen! +42% for winning the home game against Copenhagen, what?  Grin
2131  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: October 19, 2023, 06:50:50 PM
Barcelona, Atletico, but not Real?! Did I miss something or did you just forget about Real Madrid, with which negotiations have been going on for a long time and most people assume that Mbappe will move to Real Madrid next summer?
A move to the Premier League, I think, is extremely unlikely since he won’t go to City because of Haaland, and there is no point in moving to another club where the likelihood of a Premier League title will be low.
That's right, don't forget Real Madrid, its position can get two things, win a trophy and get Mbappe. These two things are very likely to be realized in the future, that doesn't mean that Barcelona and ATM don't have a chance in this case, I certainly understand the quality of both of them. Talking about Mbappe quality, I don't doubt it, in fact I am quite sure that Mbappe can easily adapt wherever he goes. However, so far, Mbappe skills in transfer matters have also improved, he has succeeded in making us continuously wonder about his future.

There are many clubs in the Premier League who are willing to sign him, and I think no less than four clubs are able to redeem his contract clause. However, I think the chance of joining Man City is quite small, because of Halaand presence in the squad. I think Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United have the budget to take him from PSG, but Madrid is still in first place.

Okay, but your wording, even after re-reading it, looks far from obvious to me  Smiley Real always aims primarily at the Champions League and there they are definitely far from their optimal status (they look weaker than both City and Bayern), so Real definitely needs strengthening. Barcelona will not be able to handle Mbappe financially (even with a lot of leverage haha), and Atlético is another swamp for such a bright striker as Mbappe, he definitely does not need to cooperate with Simeone, who loves everyone to suffer: the opponent, his team, the audience  Grin
2132  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: October 19, 2023, 06:39:06 PM
Here is the current odds Union Berlin vs Stuttgart

Union Berlin @2.44
Stuttgart @2.75
Draw @3.15

Indeed Union Berlin is slightly the favourite but since this season Union Berlin was unable to managed their consistency and in Bundesliga or Champion league Union Berlin has poor performance and total Union Berlin has experience 7 losing streak in all competitions with conceded 12 goals so this proven Union Berlin defensive lines is very poor and for Stuttgart they are in the positive conditions with 6 wins from 7 matches and they are clearly better compared to Union Berlin and i think this match will belongs to Stuttgart and as i mention above the odds for Stuttgart was quite high so it's decent to try

Apparently the bookmakers believe that at the moment Stuttgart has better results than they “deserve” in terms of strength, while Union Berlin, on the contrary, have worse results. Remembering last season, I would definitely agree with this, but now the odds look really unfair, even taking into account the fact that Union is playing at home. The bet on Stuttgrat looks attractive.
2133  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: October 19, 2023, 06:32:10 PM
Xavi was lucky to win La Liga (due to the crisis in Real Madrid) but, for example, Barcelona have terrible results in European cups. If we were not talking about a top club with big ambitions, then average results would be acceptable, but Barcelona, despite the financial crisis and the scandal with bribery of referees that continues to develop, still considers itself a top club, so they need better results. At some point, Xavi may be fired due to results or simply because Xavi still hasn't proven that he has a high level of competence.
Barcelona been crowned champions of La Liga last season due to the credibility and an easy one with outstanding performance. Though things was a little bit rough for the Blaugrana but they buckle up and face the reality of game. They're ambitious and triggers the best results. Talking about Xavi Hernandez been fired by Barcelona board this season, ofcourse it's impossible because the Barca legend have grown to become a top experienced coach with incredible abilities on his squad.  Xavi is competent enough to handle the tough tasks coming his way this season.

You definitely didn’t watch last season (a lot of victories with a minimum score, in the last minutes, etc.) and write some kind of fiction. Barcelona became champions against the backdrop of a crisis in Atletico and a transitional season in Real (which became such due to Mbappe's liar and Benzema's injuries). As for Xavi, his coaching decisions + - as in the season before last, he has not yet proven anything at all.
2134  Local / Трейдеры / Re: доллар соскамят on: October 19, 2023, 06:26:11 PM
В Финмониторинге тоже сотрудники не вчера родились, знают большинство лазеек. Просто на мелкие пакости будут закрывать глаза, а крупные так просто не оставят в покое. Тем более перед правительством нужно будет отчитываться и я подозреваю, многие будут рвать и метать лишь бы выслужиться и найти тех, кто не хочет играть по новым правилам.

 Roll Eyes завидую вашей вере в то что прям существуют те кто будет рвать и метать не в свою пользу (и очевидно под большим риском случайно утонуть в ванной). Я вот почитываю новости об экономических (а на самом деле нет, обычный криминал) преступлениях и "спорах хозяйствующих субъектов", отличий от 90-х не вижу. ,Те же убийства, похищения людей, "слепые" правоохранители и т.д. И это всё не про увровень ларьков, а госкорпорации рфские.
2135  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: October 19, 2023, 06:18:27 PM
I suspect that Zidane will return to Real again if Real gets Mbappe (or Haaland). After Zidane won the Champions League three times in a row, he definitely doesn’t want to lower the bar, so he’s only waiting for a big project, he can’t lead the French national team because Deschamps gives results, so if Real tries hard, they can convince Zidane next summer. But if, as they say, the sheikhs buy Marseille, then I think that it will end up there.

There's no further development regarding the rumor about sheikh buys marseille. I have heard this news if zidane would be agree to be a new coach for marseille only if sheikh would be buying it as its own club.
I think that if we will see him back again in the professional football club. Real madrid has a good history with him. Perez also knew how good he was when helping real madrid to won three times UCL trophies in a row.

I have no doubt if zidane is the best choice for real madrid this time. It's likely he will be going there.

Maybe, but I still think that it depends on what kind of “project” Real can create. Now everything looks very cool and promising, but there is no top striker, if this problem is solved then Zidane will have to come. Purely psychologically, I don’t really believe in this anymore since Zidane has been “on vacation” for a long time and Real has been trying to get Mbappe for a long time and this has already turned into a series that seems to never end.
2136  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: October 19, 2023, 06:13:35 PM
Regarding the London derby in my opinion there are only two possibilities; one of the two could lose or both could draw.
~

 Grin 100% prediction, in any case you will be right.

At the moment, bookmakers' quotes for this game are as follows:

3.20 - 3.40 - 2.26

I'm surprised Arsenal are rated so poorly. Chelsea are a team in crisis with a weak coach and a chaotic squad, while Arsenal are the complete opposite. I understand that every team has a chance, especially at home, plus taking into account the derby factor, but it seems to me that Arsenal are undervalued.
2137  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ban from a Casino for Nothing Other Than Winning Too Much Money on: October 19, 2023, 06:03:40 PM
I was always surprised by such things - did they really think that he was a fraudster or that the mathematics broke down on him personally and the casino ceased to have an advantage? It seems to me that, on the contrary, it is beneficial for the casino when some media person wins a lot - after all, a lot of people find out about it and the casino receives additional advertising. And vice versa, after such news, I will not visit casinos about which I heard that they ban the lucky ones.
Is it worth it? No its not. If they do have those gamblers who do make out some huge wins on a scenario on which it is way more than could be seen into those other places then they would really be making out such exposure or would really be some additional marketing or awareness into the public but is it really worth? pretty sure it wouldnt because the number of revenue or profits that they are making is really not that enough
~

Why do you think so? If the math works correctly, then the casino on average always has the same amount of profit as a percentage of turnover. Moreover, the existence of large winnings for some players is an inevitable pattern - among tens of thousands of gamblers who try hundreds of thousands of times, someone must be very lucky, this is the law of large numbers. I don't see any point in banning these lucky ones.
2138  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany ⚽ - Qualifiers on: October 19, 2023, 05:57:42 PM
Italy does not have to win two games, they only need to equal the number of points with Ukraine to be ahead - according to the regulations, if the teams have an equal number of points, then the team with the best result in head-to-head matches has priority. Therefore, their task looks quite achievable, but Ukraine has only one option - they need to defeat Italy away.
The battle for who joins England to qualify from the Group C of the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifiers further became more interesting and competitive after Italy were convincingly beaten at the Wembley stadium yesterday by their England counterparts.
Italy of course still have a very great chance of qualifying from the group but that can only happen when if they can beat Ukraine when the two countries meet for their qualifying game on 20th November. Any result apart from win in that game for Italy is likely to sink their hopes of qualifying through the group and will now have to wait for playoffs.

I wanted to see the bookmakers' odds on who qualifies from this group, but for some reason the bookmakers haven't published them yet. I can assume that Italy’s chances will be estimated at about 1.60, the coefficient should not be less because in fact this is a multi-bet: Italy must defeat North Macedonia, which is inconvenient for them, and then not lose to Ukraine. The task is not very difficult, but Italy looks unconvincing in recent games.
2139  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: October 19, 2023, 05:51:28 PM


The serious injury suffered by Neymar yesterday while defending Brazil marked the 30th injury during his career. This is a very large amount for a professional football player and as one of the star players his fate is now getting closer to the end every day. I doubt Al-Hlal will keep him until his contract ends because his presence is really needed as a star on the pitch and Al-Hilal will certainly not be satisfied if he just sees Neymar resting at home. The investment made by Al-Hilal seems meaningless and they must consider this situation as soon as possible. This is a big risk for a team to take when signing Neymar and I hope Al-Hilal can understand what they have done before.

I would like to know how much of his susceptibility to injury is due to the biological characteristics of his body, and how much to the characteristics of his character (he is definitely not someone who worked hard in training all the time and always led a healthy lifestyle, everyone knows that).
And I would also be interested to know if Neymar/his contract was insured? Considering how often he gets injured, it would be difficult/expensive to insure him.
2140  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ban from a Casino for Nothing Other Than Winning Too Much Money on: October 18, 2023, 08:16:48 PM
Let's take a moment to think about this and tell me if I am correct. All of the people whom I have observed getting banned from gambling at casinos by the casino management, aside from misconduct and other offenses, are individuals who keep winning significant amounts of money. For instance, consider Dana White.  
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He has been prohibited from playing at some of the city’s best casinos, including the Wynn and the Palms, due to his high-stakes gambling habits.  The UFC president is an avid gambler who has won substantial sums of money while spending hours at the tables in his chosen state of Nevada. But after some of his spectacular winning streaks, large hotel and casino locations like the Wynn have previously given him trouble. https://www.insidesport.in/accused-of-bankrupting-hotel-dana-white-explains-getting-banned-racking-up/#:~:text=He%20has%20been%20prohibited%20from,his%20chosen%20state%20of%20Nevada.

The way I perceive it is that if a person who is not cheating or engaging in illegal gambling activities consistently wins, the casino is highly likely to ban that person, just as they did with Dana White.

I was always surprised by such things - did they really think that he was a fraudster or that the mathematics broke down on him personally and the casino ceased to have an advantage? It seems to me that, on the contrary, it is beneficial for the casino when some media person wins a lot - after all, a lot of people find out about it and the casino receives additional advertising. And vice versa, after such news, I will not visit casinos about which I heard that they ban the lucky ones.
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