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Currently buying it!
Sent 30$ of BTC first, received half the PP money so far.
Had agreed to receive the remaining in a few hours.
I'll update with trust when the trade is complete.
EDIT: Trade complete
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$40 in Paypal, looking for $35 in BTC (a bit over 10%)
Post here if you can do this. Thanks!
I can do this. Send me a private message if it's okay with you. |
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Payments and bonuses! This is the spreadsheet data: Mediator 1MQZFyjCfxP9LLzeWYzuVcKpVv5VKifwxJ 0.342659678 Proxiebuier 3H4N8E91tx36wVESCnZADsJXdS6MkBMRqb 0.1443962075 Alvin Fahriza 1EQ9KgSKx11kev4CtZYVdPR4hJGFcM7xxX 0.3310440957 panjul07 1FYov14bwXdUGi4YLqGmSDvumUCK8rXtB4 2.454082151 foxkyu 1BmpoJkVYHtRcYXmnE1Hepdkj3yQWHUmLi 1.098761489 MonsterV 153RPn7ercJHBuRvcDz8omMSVH84Znzs6f 0.424694728 s1ng 1Mbo7t7cB45qprrD6yYUktNpiiFWGmSs9T 0.5290897739 fox19891989 1JBCRAPDNovUDAi5fSq39NMkzAZGSwe865 4.551856315 oni.saori -> quit campaign marilynmanson21 1J4s8zRND4tVvWbjDCp8R2pJVkPw4bzuhi 0.123415562 In addition to the payment written above, fox19891989 has won the bonus of 5 mbtc!
As this is the final cycle, everyone else has been given an additional bonus of 1 mbtc!
The payments, with total bonuses of 13 mbtc have been sent: https://blockchain.info/tx/4b87382a220156aa5b8c7bf48ce46dd35030bd44075d812d43331783b7e15bc9 |
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Well, instead of requiring sites to get in and get involved, players could 'commit' to use the referral links of the winning tipster of the month.
Each tipster could just submit their referral link, and the winning one would be displayed on the top.
The top tipster would be determined, obviously, by amount of winnings.
Only question is, would the referral link bonus be significant enough.
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Time for payments!
Users foxkyu and Mediator joined far too late, and shall only be consider for the next cycle.
I allowed late registrations, but under 48 hours before the end of the cycle is far too little.
Payments (mbtc)
s1ng 2.212778798
Nahl 1.111921346
masterzino 1.251980186
oni.saori 0.3801956298
The Last Choice 1.982448641
Denker 0.9301214514
Proxiebuier 0.3439865222
howbtc 1.786567427
s1ng gets an additional bonus of 5 mBTC
oni.saori: You have not put two fields, I see only the avatar, not the personal message or the signature. Secondly, you filled the form saying 1 field.
The Last Choice: I'm not sure why you filled the form saying you had one field when you had two. Please refrain from doing this next time. I have changed it now, but I shall not make any changes in the future.
To everyone, if you want to join for the next rotation, please resubmit the form.
Payments will be sent out soon, within the next 8 hours.
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hey Jambola2 I understood you are checking for promos and their EV + or - for player. nice hobby  we have a promo (right now locked because of the Jackpot promo) called " no chance to lose promo" but we had not many takers and I was wondering why? it would be nice if would look it over just to sure we didn't do any mistake and the promo is -EV for players though I am sure that it is one of the best promos ever. the link is https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1122527.msg11880147#msg11880147thanks The thread is locked. If this was done earlier, it is likely that the players don't check the thread because it was locked. And if it is done now, well I guess the promo is over? Thank you very much again for taking the time to try ELI5 very much appreciated.
you are saying >>>I used some test funds provided by you to check the jackpot amount. Tried it for 4-5 different bet sizes, and found it to be 2799.36x<<<
it will be very important to visit our site again and check the jackpot adjusting to the wagered amount. it just cant be that you wagered different amounts and always had the same jackpot amount. because the maths regarding jackpot can't be correct if the jackpot adjusts to wager amount.
if I understood you right the jackpot was always 2799.36 no matter what amount you wagered?
btw would you please tell us what the number 2799.36 is? I mean is it 0.00279936? or why the dot36? with dot36 I would say it is 2799.36 satoshi but it would be nice if you could explain those numbers.
Sorry, didn't explain optimally. By x I mean times. 2799.36x means 2799.36 * Bet amount That becomes (2799.36x * 2000 satoshis/279936) I made a mistake there, the x doesn't mean anything. So, if you win the jackpot, you get 2799.36 times whatever you had bet.
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thank you very much for taking the time to make all the maths to tell our players if it is +EV or -EV
very much appreciated.
but I would like to ask you to present those numbers in ELI5 because we have many users who will not understand your maths this way that you presented it.
for example you wrote >>>Expected value from winning the jackpot: 0.00002 * 2799.36/279936 = 0.0000002<<<
could you please do this explanation in ELI5 so we all can understand this formula and what the result of 0.0000002 means. I know that it means 20 satoshi but what is it for?? I am confused
here and where do you get the number 2799.36 from?
thanks again
Alright, let me rephrase it
How do we find expected value?
(Value of outcome/Total number of outcomes)
This can also be written as (Multiplier * Amount bet/Total number of outcomes)
Since the only outcome which returns any Bitcoin is winning with your racer, we only consider that.
5.88 multiplier (from site) * 2000 satoshis/6 total racers that can win
Hence:
Expected value from winning the normal game: 0.00002 * 5.88/6 = 0.0000196
How do we find the expected value of the jackpot?
(Multiplier of jackpot * Bet amount/Total number of outcomes)
Now, we know that the jackpot odds are 1/279936
Hence:
Multiplier * Bet amount/279936
I used some test funds provided by you to check the jackpot amount. Tried it for 4-5 different bet sizes, and found it to be 2799.36x
That becomes (2799.36x * 2000 satoshis/279936)
Expected value from winning the jackpot: 0.00002 * 2799.36/279936 = 0.0000002
Finally, for the expected value of the jackpot bonus, you can quite easily multiply the bonus prize amount (0.1) with the odds (1/279936)
Expected value from jackpot bonus: 0.1/279936 = 0.000000357
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This promotion makes the site temporarily EV+ !
Assuming you bet 0.00002 BTC (2000 satoshis) every bet:
Expected value from winning the normal game: 0.00002 * 5.88/6 = 0.0000196
Expected value from winning the jackpot: 0.00002 * 2799.36/279936 = 0.0000002
Expected value from jackpot bonus: 0.1/279936 = 0.000000357
Total EV = 0.000020157
Works out to be 100.785% EV.
Not much, but better than EV-
(EDIT: This assumes you bet only one one racer. Betting on two or more simultaneously makes it EV- again)
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*snip* Yep, but I've noticed (for me anyhow?) it takes about a day after the date in the OP's spreadsheet. Not sure why, but no biggie. Was never my intention to be here this long, I got sucked in and now here we all are.  As hilariousandco just mentioned: The activity updating was changed twice over the past year or so with a new update fairly recently after the forum hack. Activity can now take a little longer to update but it shouldn't really be an issue. If you're active it will still update within an hour I believe.
This renders my superfluous accuracy even more pointless, but shouldn't cause too much of a problem for most people. |
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*snip*
Canada has an amazing policy on this currently. So i am very content with this.
Then again, it's really hard for any government to crack down on you if you have BTC and bought something online with it, sooo.
Is it that big of an issue?
Would probably depend on how sizable your salary is. If you earn a lot yearly (100k+) in the form of Bitcoin, and spend it on a lot, you might be audited and get into trouble for tax evasion. |
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Anyone can create it for under 20$ cmon 50 is a dream.price
Also, don't forget the continuous fear that the seller will be able to recover the account if you put any sizable amount of money on it. |
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*snip*
Escrow is used to make sure the buyer of BTC receives the BTC. It doesn't stop a chargeback but neither does receiving first.
You might think, oh well paypal is the only one at lose here but why should we let these PayPal scammers who have NO interest in BTC get away with stealing ANYTHING here?
Let's say Alice is selling 1 BTC for 300$ to Bob, via Paypal. Bob is a scammer. Scenario A: They decide to use an escrow. Alice sends 1 BTC to the trusted escrow, Bob sends 300 $ via Paypal to Alice. The escrow releases the 1 BTC to Bob. Bob files a chargeback on Paypal and gets his 300$ back: End result: Alice has nothing, Bob has the Paypal money and the Bitcoin Scenario B: They decide to not use an escrow. Alice sends 1 BTC, Bob doesn't send the Paypal money. End result: Alice has nothing, Bob has the Paypal money and the Bitcoin There is no difference, atleast in this scenario. Even if you reverse it, such that the person offering the Bitcoin is a scammer, the Paypal user can always rightfully chargeback. The person using Paypal to send money, is always perfectly secured against scammers due to the ability to chargeback and can scam at will too. Your insistence upon escrow would make a difference in any BTC only transaction, but not here. |
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You really should use escrow and you really shouldn't accept PayPal from users that do not have significant amounts of reputation, even if it is only $10.
If you don't follow this advice then you will almost certainly get scammed.
Isn't escrow completely pointless with the existence chargebacks? Unless the escrow holds the BTC for 180 days, you can lose it all despite using an escrow for the trade. |
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1 point if you use avatar, 2 if you use avatar and signature or avatar and PM, 3 points if you use all three. Also, I'm penalizing the post value of late joiners as they have posted for only half the campaign length or lesser. |
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whether the member can follow Siganture this campaign?
You can use a signature too, but you must have the avatar. So, the minimum rank is Full Member. |
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If you're looking to get anyone using your service, you either need reputation or need to use an escrow.
It makes sense to use an escrow, to prove that you have the funds you're offering too.
Even if you choose to not use an escrow, at the very least, prove ownership of a certain amount of Bitcoin by signing from an address. (It'll show you atleast have the BTC you claim to)
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Convincing investors is hard.
You could just run away with all the funds if you want to.
What you can do is, if you have only a few investors (1-2), you can make your gambling site's cold wallet be a multisig wallet, where you can't take the funds and run without the investors confirmation.
For example, if you have 2 investors, investing 50 BTC each, maybe 5 BTC could be in the hot wallet, and the rest would be a 2 of 3 key cold wallet, needing atleast one investor to withdraw the funds along with you.
Finally, this market is rather full atm, you might not be able to get as many big gamblers as you hope for.
You would need to have a super low house edge for people to even consider it, and a lot of reputation for whales to trust you.
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The only benifits would be for people on the opposite time zone from the Auction end time.... I would like to see people not get out bid because they are asleep because of a end time that's early in the morning or during work hours.
I agree the updating could become a headache. .. unless only one max bid is accepted per user... But that's not good either....
24 hours extentions after last bids could also become out of sync and end at a bad time too....but it would give world wide oppertunity for last bid.....
Just looking for ideas
24 hours sounds like a lot though. Somewhere in the range between 4-12 hours seems good, and I think 8 hours is ideal. Even if an auction ends at 5 AM for me, I could post a bid at around midnight and rebid at 8 AM if necessary. |
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