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3081  Other / Meta / Re: Why does not the New OP title propagate through on all posts in my threads on: November 19, 2012, 08:04:01 PM
Nope.  Usually just means someone hit reply without doing "quote", like I just did here.

The title comes from the first post then.
3082  Economy / Economics / Re: Could pegged real economy investments assist in stabilizing the BTC economy? on: November 19, 2012, 07:49:29 PM
Depository receipts will increase the number of real assets that are being traded within the btc economy

There's a brokerage that lets me buy and sell stocks without having to pay any per-trade commissions.   They can offer this because the trades are not traded in real-time, on-demand but instead trades are grouped together, matched internally and remaining orders are sent to market twice a day.
 - https://www.folioinvesting.com/brokeragefeatures/window-trades.jsp

Because the bitcoin exchange rate is so volatile, I think that if there was some type of trading in equities listed with major exchanges (for bitcoins) it would probably need to start out like this.

So when there is net selling, the issuer would convert the fiat proceeds from selling at the market into bitcoins for crediting the seller's balances.  When there is net buying the bitcoins from the buyers accounts are converted to fiat and used to pay or the orders placed at the market.

But the cost of that Bitcoin-to-fiat (or vice-versa) conversion is known and the exchange costs are allocated proportionally to all shares traded.

That's not the ideal scenario for the individual trader (real-time trading based on the latest info results in the best pricing), but I bet the exchange rate risk is too high and no organization could justify taking on the exchange rate risk without some window trading method like this.
3083  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: CryptoXchange gone broke? on: November 19, 2012, 07:18:57 PM
Here is another thread on the topic as well:

This is an ex-change (cryptoxchange closes shop)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=126732.0
3084  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: FastCash4Bitcoins Support Thread (over 125,000 Bitcoins purchased) on: November 19, 2012, 07:02:31 PM
If they have API support for importing a private key that might work.

You don't need to import a private key, you simply use Blockchain.info's API to redeem the private key on behalf of your customer.  Here's the API:

I have been meaning to add this ability to the blockchain.info API for a while. You can now replace the guid in the send api (https://blockchain.info/api/api_send) with a Hex encoded private key.

https://blockchain.info/merchant/4d6c9dff493fcd2da9508e01c8b13461d37e3d8b6df1732942d3257874051362/payment?to=$address&amount=$amount

$address = destination bitcoin address.
$amount = amount to send in satoshi.

You would probably want to verify the amount of funds available to that address as if the amount is lower than the amount available, the change gets sent right back to the address it came from.

This could also be done with the Raw Transactions capability of the Bitcoin.org client v0.7 and higher, and thus eliminate any concern over sending a customer's private key to a third party service.

So you never need to import the private key, you simply spend it to the address generated for a specific transaction and that takes the place of the customer having to redeem the funds themselves first.
3085  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: ECWID shopping cart - Support Development of a Bitcoin payment plugin on: November 19, 2012, 06:44:03 PM
Is there any updates on this project? We are anxious to help test it @ dearhusband.com

Bitpay is now integrated with Ecwid:
 - https://github.com/bitpay/ecwid-plugin
3086  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Difficulty decreasing? on: November 19, 2012, 06:39:39 PM
here must be some stats on that

Back when there were mostly solo miners you could get a general feel by seeing where the generated coin hadn't moved.  But with payouts from pools, there's really no data showing how much of that gets cashed out.   With pools that pay out generated coin directly (e.g., Eligius and P2Pool) you can see this again, and perhaps assume these miners are typical and then extrapolate the results for all miners. 

But just because the generated coin moves doesn't mean it is cashed out -- it could simply mean it got moved to a savings wallet, for example.

3087  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Difficulty decreasing? on: November 19, 2012, 06:35:26 PM
Looks like the difficulty might be going down? I know it's only a drop of 0.8% but could it be the start of something?

Just simple variance would account for a decrease of that estimate level with no decrease in physical hashing capacity.

But I don't think there are many people adding either GPUs or FPGAs so anyone trying to beat the rush by selling their GPUs now could cause a net decrease to the amount of hashing capacity that exists.

either way, I reckon this is how it will go until our ASICs start rocking up.

The difficulty adjusts right before block 210,000 so if many Thash/s of capacity drop out that first adjust period will be brutal.  Not just for severity (i.e., a shock to many miners who learn that "halving" means half.   As in if your system is bringing in 0.4 BTC before it now brings in 0.2 BTC) but in duration.  The more capacity that drops out means the longer that first adjustment period persists.

Here was my play-by-play prediction made about a month ago:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=118952.msg1278827#msg1278827
3088  Other / Off-topic / Re: Block Reward Halving + BFL Equipment = What for Mining / Price In Your Opinion? on: November 19, 2012, 06:27:53 PM
This is a prediction, and predictions are hard -- especially about the future.  Nobody knows, but I'll take a stab at it.

Day 0 is expected roughly around November 30th, plus or minus a week:

Day T-10: Four of the five ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day T-8: Difficulty of 3.5 million and exchange rate of $15 mean profitability is still acceptable for GPU miners paying average electric rates or less.
Day T-5: A lot more "N Ghash/s for sale" listings will start to appear [Edit: as-in total liquidation of N GHash/s of capacity]

Looks like the first three are coming in as being fairly accurate.
3089  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: On the contrary, its actually good ASICs are coming when they are... on: November 19, 2012, 05:44:50 PM
hardly anyone would want to mine on GPU's anymore, it would cost way too much! Diff , therefore network hashrate, would drop significantly to make up for the reward halving.

Well, those who mine on GPUs and pay for electricity average rates or higher would mostly be forced to drop out.

When they drop out, the difficulty would drop.

That lower difficulty will make it so others who pay a lower rate (e.g., up to $0.07 per kWh) for electricity can continue mining at a profit after the halving event.

When conditions like that exist, BTC becomes more vulnerable to a 51% attack.

The reason we are currently at 24 Thash/s is not because that is the minimal level necessary to protect the Bitcoin network from a 51% attack, it is because with bitcoins issued at the rate of nearly $3 million USD worth each month, 25 Thash/s was the level of hardware acquisition that occurred from miners competing.

Is the bitcoin network just as protected from a 51% attack with a total of 12 Thash/s?   Probably.

Since ASICs are 100x more power effeciency, this leaves room for a substantial increase in the amount of miners being able to run this type of hardware(50x considering reward halving) without hitting a power consumption ceiling .. meaning still being quite profitable.

Yes, the power consumption limits that were the upper ceiling for "hobbyist" and relatively "small-time" miners is gone with ASICs.  

(hopefully that wont lead to a 51% attack, in the wrong hands it could =( ).

Economically it doesn't make sense for someone to invest the millions of dollars in ASIC hardware to harm bitcoin or to double spend (which will harm bitcoin).  Not all actions are for economic reasons.  Having many ASICs distributed among many miners is the countering force.  The hash rate isn't busting out anywhere and at least two manufacturers now are claiming "real soon".

We'll know how this all pans out "real soon" I guess.

3090  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: This is an ex-change (cryptoxchange closes shop) on: November 19, 2012, 05:14:05 PM
Will they continue to operate Mr. Bitcoins or will that be closing as well?  (That already lost TrustCash so no USD funding method, and they haven't done INR trading for a while either.)
3091  Local / Nederlands (Dutch) / Re: Private loans in bitcoins and the Dutch law on: November 19, 2012, 11:22:28 AM
If it turns out that the problem is more universal,

Actually, most tax issues are relative to your specific jurisdiction(s).  And taxes on interest on loans is likely treated the same whether you are paid the interest in euro, gold, bitcoins or tulip bulbs even.

There is an article on the general tax topic though in the Bitcoin wiki:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Tax_compliance
3092  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Proof of ownership/holding - simple and reliable & used by all the "exchanges" on: November 19, 2012, 11:14:28 AM
Can you describe something simple and reliable that exchanges and CF sites can implement and actually use?

Kind of related is the payment protocol being discussed for Bitcoin:

We need a payment protocol with non-repudiation built in.

See https://gist.github.com/2217885 for a multisig version (the singlesig version is simpler, but the merchant <-> customer communication will be the same).
3093  Other / Off-topic / Re: Press google to count in BTC on: November 19, 2012, 11:12:27 AM
I have just send via "Give us feedback" on the google.com site after searching "50USD in EURO"


Feedback like that:
"
It is "50 USD in EURO" working.
What decides which currency are working?
I'm interested with BTC, could you make it work?
"50 USD in BTC"
and
"2BTC in USD"
Could you do that?
"

Who would do the same?
Maybe Google will decide to include BTC to this calculator?


The currency exchange rates are usually provided by an official source, oftentimes the central banks.

What is the official source that Google could use?     There probably will need to be some proportional weighting method.  (e.g., for BTC/USD, something like 70% based on BTC/USD at Mt. Gox, 10% from BitSTAMP, 10% from BitFloor, 5% from CampBX, 5% from BitME.).
3094  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Why people think Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme? on: November 19, 2012, 08:15:02 AM
Which brings me back to my original idea, when the select few profit too much, that will increase the chance of collapse.

You are using the "collapse" word again.   I'm kind of perplexed as to why.

Miners either hold what they mine, sell it at an exchange, or to some degree, spend their mining proceeds within the bitcoin economy.  But that happens once.  After the miner spends those funds the funds are then spent.  Those coins are ultimately either bought by someone investing/speculating or they continue to circulate in the bitcoin economy.

Starting later this month, the currency issuance rate drops to a 12.5% level (at an annual rate).

So in the year that follows miners will either save, cash out or spend those 1.3 million coins that they earn.

 - If 100% of those funds are saved ("hoarded") by the miners then, of course, that will not cause "collapse".
 - If 100% of those funds are spent in the bitcoin economy, that will be fantastic, and will not cause a "collapse".
 - If 100% of those funds are cashed out immediately upon being earned by miners, that might keep the exchange rate subdued, but I can't think that is anywhere enough to cause "collapse".
 - And thus, if there is any combination of the above, there is nothing there that would cause a "collapse".

So where do you see low profits (or losses) to miners as being something that will cause Bitcoin's collapse?
3095  Economy / Economics / Re: Could pegged real economy investments assist in stabilizing the BTC economy? on: November 19, 2012, 07:22:15 AM
Was talking about bitcoin denominated depository receipts of companies in the real economy.

Like BIDU's (a chinese company) USD denominated American Depository Receipts that trade here (no currency conversion required)

Does anything from this reply from another thread help?

are there any sites that let you invest on the stock market using bitcoins?

You are asking if there are any brokers who accept funds in the form of bitcoins that would allow you to purchase stocks on the public markets?

There are none in the U.S. that (yet) provide that.

There are online brokerages in the U.S. that take ACH / direct deposit transfers, which would allow bitcoins to be traded for USDs and then withdrawn as an ACH.  Any Bitcoin exchange that does Dwolla cash-out would work for this:
 - http://www.MtGox.com
 - http://CampBX.com
 - http://FastCash4Bitcoins.com

There is one type of market where bitcoins can be used to speculate on gold, oil / crude (WTI), and dollars:
 - http://ICBIT.se

There is also a bitcoin-based market where a handful of "equities" for unincorporated entities are traded -- MPEX:
 - http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/mpex.php

There are a couple of methods where bitcoins can be used to fund Forex trading accounts:
 - http://www.bit4x.com/
 - http://www.LiteForex.com

There is a hedge fund that announced plans to invest in bitcoins as one of its asset classes:
 - http://www.hedgeweek.com/2012/10/08/174393/emergence-electronic-gold%E2%80%A6

There has been interest in something like what you are describing, but none to-date have progressed to where this is available today:

Real Life Stock Passthroughs (eg AAPL)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=112363.0

Buy/Sell AAPL with BTC/LTC
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100688.0

There isn't necessarily a good reason that this isn't available yet today -- as long as the broker performs the same AML/KYC as a broker that accepts fiat does.  Because bitcoins can be used to transfer funds faster than a bank wire transfer even, it wouldn't be surprising to see support for Bitcoin as a funding method be one of the more common requests.  It's a natural fit, so it will likely be happening.  It is likely just a matter of time.
3096  Economy / Economics / Re: Could pegged real economy investments assist in stabilizing the BTC economy? on: November 19, 2012, 06:35:21 AM
Interesting. It doesn't seem like there would be enough volume to support trading within the bitcoin economy(not sure if it would even be necessary) of depository receipts at this stage, but  It would certainly be a huge help for those living in countries where governments use currency devaluations to take wealth away from their citizens or in situations where it is difficult to open a brokerage account.

Perhaps there is some [edit: I am] misunderstanding here?

Take Baidu, for instance.  It is a Chinese search engine company headquartered in Beijing, China.

Here in the U.S. we can buy and sell shares of Baidu on NASDAQ as there is an ADR issue for Baidu
 - https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:BIDU

So if there was a broker that were to allow its customers to fund a brokerage account with bitcoins to trade on the NYSE or on Nasdaq (including any ADRs which trade there) then that would be good for bitcoin as that is another way that bitcoins can be used as a currency.

But that doesn't help someone in Canada, or China even.  That broker must still follow AML/KYC and I presume the broker is not able to serve customers (facilitate their investment) when the the customer is not from the U.S.

As (if) bitcoin evolves as an international store of value in countries with monetary instability, it will be fascinating to see how it assists the poor with investing.

I see.  That's a different question.   You might be asking how bitcoin can be used to increase the investment options available to those who don't currently have many options for accessing capital markets.  For instance, even in the U.S. I cannot invest in options and futures contracts as my online brokerage requires that I sign some extra paperwork and maintain a large balance with my brokerage account.   But let's say I simply want to lock in today's price for crude oil, as I plan to buy a several hundred dollars worth of gas over each of the next few months and I fear the price of crude will go way up.    With my broker account, there is no way I can "lock in" to today's crude oil exchange rate (well, technically there are ETFs and other things that give me roughly the same thing, but let's just assume these are not available).  

Instead, I can put in $1,000 worth of bitcoins and buy nearly a dozen CLG3 contracts on ICBIT (each CLG3 contract is a future contract for a barrel of oil):
 - https://icbit.se/CLG3
ICBIT operates without the requirement that I sign any paperwork or maintain a large balance.  In fact, I could even buy a thousand dollars worth of these contracts with much less than a thousand dollars worth of bitcoins, thanks to ICBIT offering margin accounts.  Buying on margin is risky though (as might be investing in unregulated exchanges like this), but the point I am making is for the first time ever, I technically have the ability to invest in oil futures by simply going to the convenience store and paying for bitcoins, and minutes later I can hold an investment in crude oil.  If the price of oil skyrockets, I'm covered because my investment will increase in value as well.

How significant are the transaction volumes at these two firms compared to Mt. Gox? Can anyone give their take on the experience with VenetFX/Bit4X or "First National Innovation Brokers"?

I've no idea.  Both have had their skirmishes here on the forum.  (actually, so has ICBIT, and nearly every other securities- or investment-related instrument involving bitcoins).

But because bitcoins are simply used to transfer value, it doesn't matter if bitcoins represent just a little bit of or a lot of the trading at these forex firms.  You aren't speculating on the bitcoin exchange rate, you are simply using bitcoins to transfer value into (and out of) an account at the brokerage.  From there, the speculation is on whatever investment instrument is purchased.
3097  Economy / Economics / Re: Could pegged real economy investments assist in stabilizing the BTC economy? on: November 19, 2012, 05:18:20 AM
Would having depository receipts in old economy companies denominated in btc similar to American Depository Reciepts or other hard assets assist in stabilizing to the price of BTC? Why or Why not?

ADR Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipt

This would create additional demand for bitcoins, sure.  And bitcoin becomes more stable when it is used for a wider and wider variety of purposes.  So, sure, this would help.

About the closest so far is the forex outfits that accept bitcoins to fund a brokerage account:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Forex

With a couple of them the bitcoins that arrive are converted to USDs or some other fiat for use in trading.   VenetFX apparently provides a way that when a position is entered, the purchase comes from the (leveraged) bitcoin balance and when a position is exited the proceeds are paid to the bitcoin account:
 - http://bit4x.com/faq.html

So in a way, what VenetFX/Bit4X is doing with regard to forex is about identical to the scenario where bitcoins are the funding mechanism for investing in (and cashing out of) ADRs.

There shouldn't be that much of a challenge to a broker offering this -- as long as regulations regarding AML/KYC and other restrictions are followed.
3098  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin ToS on: November 18, 2012, 11:56:58 PM
For inspiration:

 - https://metacpan.org/module/Software::License::DWTFYWWI
 - http://api.metacpan.org/source/AVAR/Software-License-DWTFYWWI-0.01/lib/Software/License/DWTFYWWI.pm
3099  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: FastCash4Bitcoins Support Thread (UPDATE: Silver Bullion payment option enabled) on: November 18, 2012, 10:46:29 PM
Yeah that is something we can do.

If you are considering requests ... now that the site uses accounts the "Forgot Password" recovery tool would be useful.
 - https://fastcash4bitcoins.com/forgot.aspx
3100  Bitcoin / Press / Re: NEW articles in Press Forum on: November 18, 2012, 06:52:39 PM
2012-11-15 Mondato.com - US Elections & The Rise Of Mobile Donations

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=126577.0
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