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3161  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Ethereum Proxy - Solo Mining on: January 06, 2022, 05:06:22 AM
Most likely it’s a proxy because it’s some large farm. And the hashrate displayed is not accurate, it’s maybe one of the rigs that sends it to the pool while he has dozens of rigs in total.

There is no secret in here. Just his hashrate is hidden and since he found a bunch of blocks already it means that it isn’t luck.

Mining this way won’t make you find 1 ETH block a day with a GPU or 2.
3162  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: When Greed Comes First in Trading, the Result is Bankruptcy on: January 06, 2022, 05:00:24 AM
Yes greed and fear are the reason why something like 1% of people make money in trading the rest make nothing or lose a bunch.

When Bitcoin was at $69K many people were in profit, especially those that bought around $20K last year. However everyone had dollar bills in their eyes and thinking $100K that nobody took any profits and now they are debating if they should get out or not. Most won’t until it’ll go back to their break even price and somewhere in that area it will end up reversing.

This is why when people are greedy you need to be cautious because normally it means a top is around the corner just like at $69K.
3163  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: When trading bitcoin at robinhood, do I watch BTCUSD or BTCUSDT? on: January 06, 2022, 04:22:42 AM
The price between BTCUSD and BTCUSDT is almost the same. Sometimes one is a few dollars higher or lower. However if you look at the charts and compare them you can see they are identical.

BTCUSDT on Binance is a chart a follow mostly because it has large volume. And another one is BTCUSD on Coinbase. And I just trade on whichever exchange I am using. There might be some differences on the 1M charts however the market makers keep prices pretty close.
3164  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Some questions about the Tron coin. on: January 06, 2022, 04:17:57 AM
The price of Tron peaked when BTC peaked in the Spring of last year and then had a failed high when BTC topped back in November. So it gives you a sense of how it follows bitcoins price action.

Why isn’t price higher? I generally think it had a great run because Justin went to amazing lengths to promote it. However the issue today is that there is so much other competition out there. When someone looks to invest they are presented with many choices and not much reasons to choose Tron.

3165  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Will cryptos go into Bull season? on: January 04, 2022, 04:31:07 AM
I would say right now we are still in a bull market. If the $40K low which was printed last month holds I can see ourselves making a new ATH along with many other cryptos.

Most likely Bitcoin won’t hit $100K soon however other alts like ETH or SOL or BNB could easily double within the next few months given their market cap.

So far the stock markets aren’t really caring about Covid , tapering or fed rates. Seems like it will just keep going up for no reason and so will the crypto markets.
3166  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TX Cost , fees and gas on: January 04, 2022, 04:27:26 AM
Throughout most of last year you could get away with doing a Bitcoin transaction at around 10sats per Byte or even lower. Many times the mempool is completely empty. Ethereum on the other hand is never cheap.
I surely don't know why some people still complain about Bitcoin fees being so "high" yet the fee rate has been so low for most of the year. I don't even remember the last time I paid more than 1 sat/vbyte and all transactions have been confirmed in the next block or two.

I think most people still don't understand how the Bitcoin fee rate works and the best kinds of wallets to use when spending Bitcoin.

Well sending bitcoins is cheap however it’s not always the case. Many wallets usually pick a very high fee so it can confirm on the next block. They don’t want users complaining why it’s taking hours for a transaction to confirm. So to avoid that they just use the max fee amount.

Another issue is that many exchanges still charge a lot to do withdraws. Even though withdraws are cheap now compared to say 2017 many exchanges are still charging to do a Bitcoin withdraw. I think these days there should be usually 1 free BTC withdraw a day since the fees are so low.
3167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Elsavador President Predicting $100,000 Bitcoin price looks like another joke on: January 04, 2022, 04:22:44 AM
I also am glad I am not the only one who finds some of his tweet unprofessional. He is the president of a country but he is tweeting about buying dips and arguing with that Gold bug Peter S from time to time. You would think a president would have more important things to tweet about.

What he is doing is good. He is promoting adoption and this might prevent hyper inflation for some residents. However keep in mind that many of these residents have no idea how to use Bitcoin. And look how volatile it is. One day it could lose 80% of its value and from a poor country that’s pretty devasting to say the least. I wonder how his Bitcoin city project will go.

3168  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding on: January 04, 2022, 04:18:16 AM
I think the statistic from Canada was also similar. And I am not surprised. Times have changed from last generation and there are more women who are working now. The more women that work the less kids they are willing too have because they want a career.

Also that’s not the only factor. Raising a kid is crazy expensive now. Day care costs are very high. And if you have a couple of kids you need a big place to live. Can’t live in a small apartment with 2-3 kids. You need a house and housing is crazy expensive most people can’t afford one. So they either don’t have kids or have less kids.

All of this leads to this population decline and it’s not surprising.
3169  Economy / Economics / Re: LEGO Sets Are Better Investments than Stocks, Bonds or Even Gold on: January 04, 2022, 04:12:51 AM
I don’t think that legos are better investments than gold or stocks. I think the author was just over exaggerating. You need to understand you have no idea which Lego set will be big in 20 years. So what are you going to do? Buy every single set that they release. They release maybe 100 new sets a year and some of these sets are expensive and extremely Large.

Where will you store these Lego boxes? Need to store it in some heated room so it doesn’t get water or moisture damage. Seems that holding gold would be much easier.

This is like one of those lucky investments where only 1 in 100 sets becomes so rare that it’s value appreciates. Either way great read.
3170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin first week price speculation on: January 04, 2022, 04:04:23 AM
This should be an interesting week. For those that don’t know. Bitfinex had massive bids for the past few weeks. And lately FTX and Bitmex have huge sell interest. There are massive sells in the $47K area.

Seems that they are trying to trigger the stops in the $45K area. So in the next few days we should get a guide on the outlook for Q1. The stock market had a huge rally today which if correlation is present means we might have a bullish quarter.
3171  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: What altcoins would you invest $ 1,000,000 in? on: January 03, 2022, 03:46:48 AM
This is very tricky. Because in my opinion investing $1,000,000 in alts right now doesn’t sound like the right move. If you are buying at the peak be prepared to suffer 90% drawdown and maybe an alt or two which drops 90% and then another 90% and becomes basically useless.

And even if our rally continues I think many of the mid cap alts already topped out. So you might double or triple your money at best but have the risk of losing 90%.

I think it’s best to wait and see if the markets pullback some more and maybe get it then. Perhaps the bottom of the cycles next bear market. Then your $1 million will easily be $10million with patience.
3172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin first week price speculation on: January 03, 2022, 03:41:45 AM
Bitcoin might of rallied +18% in the beginning of 2018 but look at how the rest of the year went. Maybe it was because 2017 was a profitable year and many sold in Q1 2018 to pay taxes. But if this is true look at Q1 2021, the year before was also profitable but the Q1 and rest of year was very positive.

This is pretty much proof that these types of patterns are never reliable. They can repeat or can do something completely different and have no effect at all.

I think most of cryptos fate lies how the stock market will do with the fed rates and tapering.
3173  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Identifying Bad PCIE riser cards on: January 03, 2022, 03:36:36 AM
In most cases, it is not the riser that is to blame, but the cables that carry the signal between GPU and motherboard. They can have poor shielding quality, poor contacts at the joints. The real problem due to risers can be the failure of the converter, which directly converts 12V to 3.3V. Such risers can kill the video card when this converter burns out. So, it's better to use risers with double conversion 12V-5V-3.3V.

This is actually true. Before you swap a riser you should try and swap the usb cable first. And since you are just changing the cable it’s an easy swap and doesn’t require removal of anything.

My issue wasn’t with the shielding but it was actually with the cheap pins inside the USB plug. When you plug it in a few times the pins bend and when you plug it in again the pin won’t touch the connection. You can easily fix this just by taking a small screw driver and bending the pins back and it should work again.
3174  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bid-Ask Spread and Slippage on: January 03, 2022, 03:31:04 AM
The way that slippage works is say you see that Bitcoin is crashing like 20% all off a sudden. And you want to buy because it’s a discount. So instead of making a limit order you use a market order and what usually happens, especially with many Bitcoin exchanges is that your order gets processed but doesn’t fill until a long while later. Basically maybe 30-60 seconds later when price is already higher up and you got a bad fill and bought at the top.

There is also slippage when you use a stop market order. You picked a bad area for a stop loss for example $50000 which everybody else uses and it breaks $50000 and you don’t get a fill another there is some liquidity found and it’s usually at the bottom before it bounces.

These are 2 examples of slippage and it’s why backtesting is never accurate.
3175  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Do we have trading chatroom exclusive for bitcointalk traders? on: January 03, 2022, 03:24:31 AM
The only active type of discussion regarding trading is that Wall Observer thread. These days it’s usually mostly about chit chat. I am guessing that when the thread was created it was actually about people posting the order book and showing the bid/ask walls and if there was a Large ask it was time to sell or vice versa.

I don’t think the discord is a good idea. Most discord’s or trading groups are full of scammers and some newbie always ends up losing their funds that way. Or it will be full of paid signal services which are not too far off from being scams themselves.
3176  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TX Cost , fees and gas on: January 02, 2022, 03:48:21 AM
Throughout most of last year you could get away with doing a Bitcoin transaction at around 10sats per Byte or even lower. Many times the mempool is completely empty. Ethereum on the other hand is never cheap.

Right now the fees are 50Gwei which is considered low but the transactions aren’t really cheap. Especially ERC 20. Best scenario is to wait until weekend and they will be cheaper but not by much.

You gotta be careful with low gas fees because if you submit with a fee too low it might be a pain to rebroadcast the transaction, I had this issue in the past. Might get stuck and you will need to wait. For ETH never use the lowest fee because it might get stuck and you will get issues getting it unstuck. It’s not easy like Bitcoin.
3177  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Its time to leave main exchangers ?crypto must change life on: January 02, 2022, 03:43:44 AM
Well he is correct. Nobody is going to get rich buying Bitcoin or Ethereum and holding it on spot. Maybe they can get slightly rich if they are lucky and buy ETH on 10x leverage and manage to buy it at the right low and sell when it goes to $10K, however this will take lots skills and patience to pull off.

The real money was in meme coins and NFTs and all those free airdrops. That’s how people got rich. It wasn’t buying Bitcoin a year ago at $20K and selling it a year later at $50K.

3178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Evaluate your Bitcoin for next year on: January 02, 2022, 03:39:33 AM
I think the most important event for Bitcoin in 2022 will be the distribution of the MtGox coins. From their Reddit it seems that perhaps in the summer or fall people will finally get their coins back.

Sure many will hold their coins however keep in mind that these holders owned Bitcoin when it was $1000 so they will most likely take some profit off the table.

The market will know this in advance and prepare and a mass sell off might happen.
3179  Economy / Speculation / Re: New year new speculation on: January 02, 2022, 03:36:15 AM
I think we will know how fate for the next year depending on how the next 2 weeks go. As long as the stock markets are rallying and the taping and fed rates news is all priced in then I can see Bitcoin perform well into the 2022.

However with what is going on with Omicron and there being more possible shutdowns it doesn’t look good. Since many industries might suffer again and it will lead to more messes like supply side shortages. Currently most places the cases are hitting new highs and there are lockdowns which are happening.
3180  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: GPU with 2 Fans and 3 Fans on: January 02, 2022, 03:32:33 AM
I think it depends on the design. I had GPUs in the past like the Gigabyte Windforce and they had 3 fans and they were one of the worse fans I’ve ever encountered. I think every single one of those fans died in one way or another. It got so bad that I basically stopped replacing them and either slapped some case fans on the heatsink or I just popped off the fan blade and gave it some mineral oil from time to time.

The reason why they were bad because they were tiny and weak and didn’t push out much air. Hence they used 3 of them however the cooling was worse than GPUs that I used which had the 2 fan setup. So just keep in mind that 3 fans isn’t always better. 2 should be adequate for most applications, especially these days when fans are all low rated.
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