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321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: April 20, 2024, 12:01:14 PM
Halving euphoria overshadows the fact that we're not even in the top 50.

Patience. ATHs are coming soon.
Thanks for the merit! 420 on 4/20 halving day.  Let's go.   Grin
Almost top 40 in the Canadian dollar.  Smiley

saved the 420 for you

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5251894.1580



322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 10:54:37 AM
I thought the fees would have come down a bit more by now but let's see how economical it is for these spammers to keep it up. Everytime this has happened before fees have come back down to reasonable levels, I don't think it will be different this time.

What I do know though is that I will not be transacting on the network while this keeps up.

fees will stay high from now on.

btw if a fee is 20 cents for a 3 dollar spend I would say that's too high


the bit coin maxers will be forced into scrypt for small sends.
323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 07:22:40 AM
We are up about 7.30X since the last halving on may 11, 2020 or 730% in 1439 days or 0.1385%/day or 65.7% a year.
Not bad, lol


65.7% a year means 482469.65 on 2028

I will sign on for that.

324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 10:58:14 PM
I survived surgery

½ is in minutes.

8 to go.


at jjg the muslim and jewish doctors saved this catholics butt.


maybe there is some hope for us all.


edit lots of misspelling

my fucking nose hurts like mad.

but even now just 12 hours after surgery I can tell the difference in breathing bigly.
325  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Have you stopped using bitcoin for small transactions completely ? on: April 19, 2024, 01:08:06 PM
Isn't it obvious though, that when the fees are high, making a small transaction doesn't make any sense. But it doesn't mean we will go on the argument that Bitcoin should increases and be a big blockers, we have that kind of Bitcoin forks and they seem to die down already.

And it's not Bitcoin's fault that the fees are getting ridiculous, it's a deliberate attack on the network itself and just trying to put pressure on the devs and other individuals. Anyhow, for now, it's better not to do another small transactions and the best thing to do is wait for the mempool to clear.

Also there is a option called LN (Lightning Network).

bitcoin has no technical reason to be restrained. its dev political motivated. when you follow the funding and roadmap plans of core devs it is their plan to segregate and migrate people away from native use of bitcoin. bitcoin core added an exploit 8 years ago, which is being abused 2years ago to cause these annoyances/attacks and core devs have had 8 years of knowledge of the exploit and a few years of seeing the annoying results of its impact. but all they care about is migrating people away from using the bitcoin network.
even those performing the attack/annoyance are funded by the same groups promoting the segregation of majority/trying to push people into migrating people over to the other network(rich/poor divide)

anyone telling people to:
use another network
stop using bitcoin
wait weeks, month, years and hope the utopia fixes itself

is not a ally/friend of bitcoin

if they think their reasons are justified that spending $50 for 1 tx is fine but spending $50 spread over several years for a hard drive to store decades of transactions is some how bad economics.. those fools have their maths the wrong way round, and no understanding of math/economics of utility

as for the 'do nothing, just wait' i think 8 years of waiting for the promises of bitcoin scaling to offer more transactions of cheaper fee is enough waiting. lets accept it the promises made 8 years ago have not been met. and no, other networks are not the solution. they are the diversion

other networks only provide small niche sub services of options. and should not be thought of as the ultimate replacement utility.

its funny how those that support other networks are the solution where 'small' transactions should occur. but in same breath they dont want the 'small' transactions of bloat/spam to be stopped

anyone promoting to not censor junk, but to sensor genuine bitcoiner utility have thigns the wrong way round
bitcoin HAD rules to articulate every byte as having purpose. those rules have been softened and many transactions always have been:
'dropped', 'scrubbed', 'evicted', 'orphaned', 'pruned', 'unrelayed' and many other terms that made bitcoin clean and purposeful.
suggesting bitcoin should be filled with junk but actual use should be delayed/migrated elsewhere is a social-con, a social abuse of trying to suggest bitcoin shouldnt be used by bitcoiners

so if you use the main chain and do a 1 sat I think the lowest fee is 162 sats per tx.

which means at 100 mill a btc the fee would always be at least $162 usd.
at 10 mill a btc the fee would always be at least $16.20 usd
at 1 mill a btc the fee  would always be at least $1.62
at 100 thou a btc the would always be at least 16.2 cents

so we are pretty close to 100 k a coin  this means buying a 2 dollar item and paying at least 16 cents is pretty much going to be the lowest we ever pay.

and this means the main blockchain simply can’t work for small tranasctions.

who wants  to pay 16 cents on two dollars on a good day. no one really.

thus there are three realistic choices once btc gets to 100 k.

use doge
use ltc
use ln

it is simply not that the stats fees  are high this is that a sat has more and more value.

somewhere in the 100k to 1 million a btc smallest fee will be not practical.

I am not paying 16 cents to 1.62 for one or two dollar btc moves.


we are at 10-11 cents for the lowest chain fee of 162 sats.  I have zero desire to pay 10 cents to send 1 or 2 dollars.

I just sent 100 usd in LTC  to buy a Nano 3 my send cost was under 1 penny

if btc was letting 1 sat I would have spent 10 cents.
326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 12:35:43 PM
Coming down to the wire.



Daaaaamn at 50smerit per 30days atm 😬😬

I gave him some for you.
327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 12:25:53 PM
back over 65k.

½ ing in 10-13 hours time.

waiting on lyft to go do surgery.
328  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: April 19, 2024, 12:03:29 PM
Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?
I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow


we will get some low fees.  the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.



tick tock

Quote
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   839923  (37 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.1596%  (1268 / 1241.20 expected, 26.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Current Difficulty:   86388558925171.02                            
Next Difficulty:   between 88038950002524 and 88308275794963
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.9104% and +2.2222%
Previous Retarget:   April 10, 2024 at 5:09 PM  (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 10:03 AM  (in 5d 2h 1m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 11:02 AM  (in 5d 3h 0m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 53m 49s and 13d 17h 52m 29s



we are 77 from the ½ ing. 840,000 - 839,923 = 77

ugh
329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 19, 2024, 03:08:24 AM
Israel just airstriked Iran and Syria

 Who would have believed the WO was the quickest way to get breaking news?!


 Well, in case everything goes pear-shaped... I love you guys.  Stay safe.

 

Same here.

been a lot of fun.

lets hope its not the end.


below is my own saga. above ⬆️ is the worlds saga.



tomorrow I am going for minor surgery. one doctor is jewish is is muslim.

they are best of friends.

lets hope that others can learn from them..
also lets hope the surgery works.

With some approval from all the gods I hope to post back in about 24 hours.
330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: April 19, 2024, 01:06:40 AM
59th place oh well.  better than 101st place.
331  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: April 18, 2024, 10:45:20 PM
Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?
I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow


we will get some low fees.  the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.
332  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: How to spend a 100k right on BTC mining farm on: April 18, 2024, 10:41:09 PM
no no I understand that - but thats the point I was trying to make... its a very common practice to use 2P breakers. Just figured I'd mention it as most of us know, electricity is NOT to be trifled with. For the amount of money he wants to spend it just seemed like maybe not a bad idea from the safety perspective. Wasn't trying to say he should use larger asics.

FWIW: I love the single board setups - bought 2 pre-fabbed from Altair and built 3 (19K Pro boards). If I had a spare XP lying around I'd have tinkered with that board as well! (inspired by your other post lol)

I have been lazy but I think I could get my t21 to run one board at 120 volts.

I have epic controllers which are really good with the t21

I would need another loki chip but I think it will work..

I am still sourcing a good  psu for that build.

I am also looking to rebuild or mod the chimney design to cool better
333  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: CGMiner stealing serial ports on: April 18, 2024, 12:58:30 PM
try doing the other application first .

get it running.

then try to start cgminer and add the usb sticks

Since the other app is in operation it may keep working and maybe cgminer will start and skip the occupied




After closely reading what you wrote it looks as if you already had the first devices up and running and cgminer grabbed them and terminated the other app?

Is this what is happening?


1) None cgminer app working

2) Cgminer app offline all good

3) put cgminer app online it works but kills the none cgminer app


334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2024, 12:02:30 PM
Observing $62,000 on this fine, Spring morning.

Is that all you’ve got bears?



far too arrogant bro.
335  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: April 18, 2024, 11:54:22 AM
Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?


I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

I so agree with this.  I post a photo showing the last 7 years of the mempool over and over as it is clearly showing the spam is here to stay and slowly growing.



336  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: April 18, 2024, 01:06:39 AM
The thread will always be an active reference points but sufficient time must have passed by now for the message to have filtered through therefore the thread might better be served if it is locked. Several recent posts here certainly should not have been allowed to remain. The quality of some of the posts are of a sub-standard enough level to be called in to question.

To avoid disruption, there will be a grace period: Nothing will change until Jan 1, 2024.

Well theymos added jambler to the mix. So likely we need it to stay open in case more is added to ban mix.

With The activation of new federal laws in the USA 🇺🇸 theymos will need to step carefully.

Here is hoping that things go in a better direction sooner than later .

 The mixer ban cost me 6 or 7k as I lost that signature.
 The USA laws that activated this year cost me 40k mining income maybe less maybe more.
 It has been a difficult 2024 so far.
337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: April 18, 2024, 12:22:43 AM
ugh 67th place.
338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin's 4 year cycle only coincidence? (This could be actually good news.) on: April 17, 2024, 11:57:21 PM
this will effectively end the ½ down turn income for miners at this ½ ing or the next one.

which means even if you are not correct (now) you are headed to being perfectly correct in 1 week or 4 years and a week or truly 8 years.
I think I get what you mean: that if transaction fees will also be a more significant part of the coins miners are selling, this will level out changes by halvings, and mempool congestion thus could indicate a turn to bearish conditions. (Or do I interpret the idea with the congested mempool wrong?)

In the case we do not only look at rewards but also at transaction fees, I think we could also look at other related indicator: miners' BTC reserves. It seems they were selling more coins that they are holding for the last 6 months at least. According to the article it's about 20.000 BTC they sold in excess in the last 6 months, preparing for the halving accumulating fiat reserves (probably partly to diversify into other related areas like colocation, cloud, AI etc. if mining income gets too low). That's much less than the rewards (900 per day = 163000) but it's more than transaction fees (on average 4% of miner income, i.e. about 30-50 BTC/day).

As the incentives for the behaviour are quite logical for me, we could assume that this will occur at each halving from now on: in the previous months, miners could sell at least about as much as they get by transaction fees in addition to the amount of rewards and fees they get for found blocks. This would mean selling pressure actually before the halving and perhaps in the days immediately after it, but when difficulty has re-accomodated after halvings, I expect them to reduce these sales.

In the end this could mean that, if we sustain the "miner supply dictates price" theory, the the period before halvings (which were bullish in all "cycles" until now) could even become bearish over time, while the period in the middle of the halving cycle when miners accumulate most, most bullish conditions should be found.


< big snip>


Yeah that is close.

BTC could get price slotted for periods of time that reach out and beyond four year cycles.

gold from 1992 to 2003 stayed in a 200-400 dollar slot.

I could see some big players try to do this with BTC.

I do agree we don’t really do 4 year cycles 🔄

I don’t count 2009-2013.

I count 2013 to 2017
and 2017 to 2021

but 2021 on does not fit it is more like 2009 to 2013  with a few peaks and valleys
339  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: New Project. A 1 board s19 110 pro. Make it a s19xp Some photos to follow on: April 17, 2024, 11:28:37 PM
I have to play a bit more to perfect these.

I love the look of the red chimney model but it needs a ½ inch offset to cool correctly.

The 3d printer I have access to is just a bit too small to correctly build the newer case.

I do have an idea to offset the fans that should work.
340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2024, 09:08:49 PM
I did quite a few buys. the last couple of days.

still looking for more.

Selling off the mine's gear and grabbing cheap corn seems to be working.
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