Sibos seems like a big deal. Organized by SWIFT.
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A few days ago: Why now?
I am curious to why the price is going down now? Was there any big thing that happened or is it just like a spur of the moment movement where it seems like the right move for people It’s because the price did not make a new low below the 4.18 capitulation selling with 220k BTC volume, the largest volume ever since the decline from 25 to 10 USD. The weaklings with 20k BTC each to dump are out now.
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Nagle, how do you feel about Gold? It doesn’t pay any dividend either, and its industrial and economic use is very limited.
Is this a pyramid scheme as well?
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And the fundamentals say that a price in the 10 - 20$ within a functional economy is a pure fantasy - it requires an equivalent GDP in the billions of dollars.
Ah, so how’s the gold economy doing?
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There can be no talk about stabilization until the recent speculative bubble defuses. Stabilisation could happen in the less than 1$ range. A functional bitcoin ecosystem will bring about much higher velocity of money that, counterintuitively, will further depress prices. If 5 million bitcoins worth 1$ each change hands once every week, the annual GDP of the bitcoin economy will be 250 million $. We're far, far from that.
So when has the bubble begun in your opinion? February? Or at the first price spike to 50 cents? Is it not possible that Bitcoin can simply evolve into a long term store of value, given its pre-defined, decreasing inflation rates?
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I wonder how many bitcoins has the richest bitcoin owner.
There are guesses that Satoshi owns 0.5-1.5 million BTC, as he mined from the beginning, and difficulty was 1 for a whole year.
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I do all my accounting for both of my businesses in bitcoin. I am literally using it as a unit of account. And not because I'm some kind if stubborn idiot. All of the money I have to invest and all of my revenue and most of my expenses are set in Bitcoin.
Nice. So are the expenses fixed and not subject to any exchange rate? I think that paying as much of expenses as possible in Bitcoins is one of the things that can really make it a currency. One area where I already see this being done a lot is domains, hosting etc.
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Price stabilization is key in BTC adoption, but artificially setting the price won't work. The market has to dictate the price.
I think a popular, mainstream BTC-only service will help stabilize the price. We need to work on creating valuable products/services that can't be purchased with USD.
I don’t think price stabilization is possible at all in the near future (it only will be once Bitcoins are worth a lot), and I don’t consider the example I gave "artificial price setting". It’s just an incentive for using Bitcoins, and if it is done enough, then the market will arbitrage the exchange rate if it falls too low. I agree that all it takes is such a service, a "killer app" we are searching for. Silk Road in my opinion is one, though it can’t really provide price backing.
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Currently, almost all shops and services tie their Bitcoin prices 24/7 to an exchange rate which changes every second. By doing this, the consumer cannot know how much a product generally costs in Bitcoins. He has no sense what a Bitcoin is at least minimally "worth". It results in what is a major problem with Bitcoin: it is not a unit of account. Merely a payment system or a Dollar proxy. Today, I have noticed that on what.cd, a private torrent tracker accepting Bitcoins for donations, it is cheaper to acquire a Bitcoin to be a donator than it is to pay with 5€. It is currently cheaper by more than 40%! Now everyone has an incentive to buy Bitcoins to pay with it. Imagine if everybody did that. Of course this is not feasible with most products/services, but there are examples in which it is possible due to low marginal cost. Or, if you have a monopoly and lots of demands for your product, you can simply make the other payment methods a bit more expensive. If we could achieve a sort of community agreement on a certain base price and have it for lots of things in demand, we could indeed have true backing for Bitcoin, as currency arbitrage will occur and influence the exchange rate. Thoughts?
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Thanks, cypherdoc. I hope to see soon whether we are right. At current prices + overall infrastructure and development, Bitcoin has become a splendid bet once again for investors who see things the same way. Netrin, the interview is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9MHp_dwFN0Well, the mood has changed because the people left are pretty much the core plus a few trolls/critics. Anyone who’s bought even at 10 has certainly been burnt if he didn’t actively manage the investment or at least averaged down.
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It’s not directly related to this thread, but I’m more interested to hear your thoughts on Bitcoins as I’ve been reading some of your posts. Interestingly, you seemed bearish on the PMs as well as Bitcoins in the beginning (April). you've been trading in gold for bitcoins !??! all i can say is you crazy fool ......................... so exactly how much money have you lost so far ?!?! haha not too much thankfully since i got into btc's quite early. hopefully my fundamental analysis on bitcoins will be correct. trying to be ahead of the crowd always involves risks and i'm always early but usually correct. my time frame is long (10 yrs on btc) and i can afford to wait it out. Basically my very compressed fundamental analysis is that as long as block chain technology is the only thing known to man which can enforce pre-defined monetary rules, and Bitcoin is the dominant block chain in terms of community and difficulty backing, then even one BTC unit is bound to be worth a whole lot eventually. Unfortunately I find it hard to predict if those conditions will apply in the future as well, and for how long. The infrastructure is doing better now, in terms of exchanges, mobile apps, etc., but the Bitcoin community and difficulty are on a slow decline. Also, the risk for competitors coming up with good branding, PR, financial backing exists. Do you have some reasons for Bitcoin being "the one" to take off in the next 5-10 years? It’s always interesting to have a look at the Bitcoin inflation: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_Currency_Supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Short_TermIf Bitcoin can dominate even until 2013, its yearly inflation rate would start to converge to those of fiat currencies, and with 12.5% would really be easy to surpass with more rising demand. I consider even the current inflation rate of 50% quite low when you look at how much growth has indeed happened alone from January (with price ranging from 0.3 to 0.95$) until now, justifying a significantly higher price.
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The funny thing is, if the price goes up to $20 then people will whine that the earlier adopters had an unfair advantage because they could buy at $5.
But when people actually can buy at $5, they don't necessarily choose to.
It’s the efficiency of the market; buy high, sell low.
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My bet is similar to the OP, but I wouldn't be surprised if we drop below the long term trend in proportion to the breakout that lead us to $32. For every crest there's a trough.
I have thought about the same thing ever since it became apparent to me that this correction is not a normal one. Here’s a try. The result is pretty terrifying, as it shows a potential to ~0.5. Thoughts?
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yeah I agree, this is what we need to bring it mainstream. Now if we can only convince people that bitcoin is a currency and not a stock.
Bitcoin is not (yet?) a currency, it is a payment method = USD proxy and a speculative commodity. Why? Because noone actually accepts Bitcoins, as people tie the prices to the current exchange rate in FIAT money, making it impossible to know how many Bitcoins a certain product is going to cost in a day or even in a few hours. A functional currency is also something you can hold to preserve most of your purchasing power for hours, days, weeks and months. This is not true for Bitcoin, counting since June. Problem?
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Hey, I'm black and I like bitcoin. I live in Iowa so I've never really been in touch with the urban culture, but I think the problem is just education. Public schooling is a terrible socialist idea that has done a lot of damage to the education level of a lot of kids in the cities. Theres a reason our founding fathers like Thomas Jefferson were so opposed to government schooling.
Bitcoin can be a tough concept to understand when you are used to cash and haven't really been taught about economics. I'm glad I was homeschooled instead, I went to public school for a few months and it was one of the worst things that ever happened to me.
More subtle next time please, this is no fun at all. Maybe a new account too, as this one generally hasn’t been subtle. You don’t really sound like the libertarians here, you’ll also have to try to speak more pretentiously.
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I mean, you could ask the same question for old people, women and poor people.
It’s true that the demographic of Bitcoiners is currently quite limited, and it is indeed an issue in that diversity could help us.
At least Bitcoiners are more diverse in political and economic ideology now, as far as I can tell.
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I guess it’s because nerds are dominated by white males?
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I would feel much calmer if withdrawals of BTC could be locked down by IP address and/or PGP key...
Good ideas. If you don’t have one yet, a MtGox Yubikey should do the same job.
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I know this sounds like I am reminiscing about the good old days but this was only like six months ago! I don't know what happened!?
I tell you what happened: MONEY happened! GREED took over, and ENVY. HATE surfaces, people RAGE, BITCH, MOAN, ACCUSE, INSULT. It plain sux. Haha, indeed. It happened when Bitcoins started being worth non-trivial amounts. Seeing how we are returning to past valuations, it will be interesting to see if the climate changes.
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What the fuck is "the manipulator" you people are afraid of? If someone buys up 15k of BTC, then he is a manipulator?
Are you afraid of ghosts too?
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