Dollar deflating against Bitcoin.

DDoS = Distributed Denial of Selloffs

Here come the log chart trendlines again. It truly is 2011 all over.

Where are you shorting?

And what a Black Monday it is!

Quoted for tomorrow.

I am ready either way. Bring it on.

3. is interesting, but I don't think it is significant considering people only can part with some of their income and I don't see it being many people doing that. If you are up for it, you could simply mark it on a chart for a couple months and see.

About the "Weekend Dip Myth" thread that I created some time ago, I have to say that I've actually been believing in it the past few weeks/months. Particularly Tuesday has been "rally day" in my experience. Perhaps this works better in bull markets where we keep making new highs?

Agreed. In the short term, 120 has proven itself.

Most Bitcoiners don't hate the current system. They just hate not being on top of it. If they are the new masters, it's alright.

Most likely? Bad/emotional traders. But also a possibility is that they think they can turn things around by buying at market following a large sell, yielding them profit.

Come back when Bitcoin manages to stay above 185. Don't be bothered by the noise. Again:

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1367088631988.png

Normal retrace after a brutal 80% move within 3 days. I would've been surprised if it didn't at least bounce back to over 100.

Don't sweat it, nobody is constantly right. Or else that person could be infinitely rich.

I think in the end, this is all that counts, will the market be extracting BTC or USD in the coming weeks, or will it be doing not much of either? So far, it is hard to say because both USD and BTC levels have risen since 266. It'll be interesting to see whether it can establish a new high >166 next week, or if it has found a trading range.

It's my conviction that things are simply undetermined. A large USD player or a large BTC player or any large event can change everything at the current juncture. So to me, it's most prudent to wait with longer term positions until things crystalize.

Here's an interesting question: What will happen once Litecoin begins to trade on MtGox as they recently confirmed and share the same pool of USD that Bitcoin currently enjoys? Sure, they already trade on BTC-E, but that is a trivial amount of volume and attention compared to MtGox. Even trivially modified altcoins have grown immensely popular in a way I would have never imagined. What happens once the media starts to report on them?

I don't think I ever owned any Litecoins, but this will certainly be interesting to watch.

@arepo
I thought much the same near the bottom and I agree, we are at a crossroad. One thing to consider is that I believe the risk in Bitcoins is currently far higher than prices justify, in my view.


I'm ready to be proven wrong by the price action. I don't care much missing out here on a measly 20-50% as the immense risk no longer justifies it, I've already played the bottom.

A thought: If you are right and we are at the verge of the next bull market, how much does it really matter if one buys in at 137 at a rather high risk, rather than at 166, 200 or even 266 at a more reduced risk of being wrong?

I acknowledge the possibility, I just think the probability combined with upside is not worth it at the current stage. A good speculator sees that most of the easy money is most probably gone for a while.


Man, what a marketing language/buzzword bullshit, I thought better of you. Perhaps the thing to deflate will be the Bitcoin price.

PS: I hate to do ad hominems, but why are you getting so certain recently + on the verge of spam with the topics? To sell your reports? I remember you were wrong during the whole rally and then barely said anything. It would be too ironic if the same thing happened now.

Someone large moves his coins to another address of his, destroying lots of days. Manipulation may not be the right word for that. However, even looking at the graph taking it seriously, the current Bitcoin Days Destroyed peak is nearly identical to the one at the end of june in 2011 with 15 vs. 14 million.

The "weak hands, strong hands" thing is a fascinating new thing. You don't know how bearish I became with that sentiment being normal. I particularly liked the spartan 300 submissions on r/bitcoin that got to the top everytime the price declined. The people who most often cry it out are usually the ones to sell at the bottom. And once they capitulate, Bitcoin can resume its rise. Whether that really happened at 50 remains to be seen.

@arepo
Yes, Bitcoin has a great brand awareness going for it. I don't care for seeds that don't bear fruit. I don't think Seals with Clubs is anywhere as popular as SD or SR, but feel free to prove me wrong. Still, this is arguing over details. My main point is that there's no such thing as a Bitcoin economy, and there are only 2 truly successful Bitcoin businesses apart from exchanges, mining pools and other intermediaries like Bitpay. It's a commodity and a payment mechanism for fiat money, but certainly no currency so far.

This sounds quite sensible. Most importantly, the bottom should happen following a period of "despair" with very negative sentiment where every price increase is smacked down. First should probably come a period where pretty much nothing happens as price finds its bounds, and most newcomers get bored and go off to chase the next hot thing.

You have failed to read my post. I was talking about how a larger share of newly generated coins is provided to the market as profit margins go down and its effect on the behaviour of dormant supply.

Also, Bitcoin Days Destroyed is a usless metric that is easily manipulated.

Tend to agree with Maged. Unless we get lots of fresh money quickly and can decimate the Bitcoins from the order book causing a positive feedback loop, we are in for a bleeding.

An important factor during times of historical bitcoin scarcity in the markets (BTC on MtGox's book at the peak has been decimated to an unbelievable 30k, and it is still low with barely 130k): Miners still have unbelievable profit margins, and most probably most choose and chose not to sell most of their profits and speculate instead. As the profit margins go down due to difficulty increase and price decrease, they are forced to sell their Bitcoins to cover their running costs, providing the market with a larger share of the 3600 daily Bitcoins. They will also begin to sell their accumulated coins to take profits if sentiment worsens. Now speculators not only have to compete with other speculators, but miners, and a negative feedback loop can emerge. People find themselves having vastly underestimated both the available and the newly added supply.

The time to buy Bitcoins could be when difficulty begins to deflate again. Admittedly, that could happen much further up if another media hype starts, but the chances in my eyes are relatively small.

Further factors making me more bearish in the mid term: Bitcoin exchanges are being eliminated and MtGox is returning to its monopoly status from years ago. Bitcoin still extremely centralized through mining pools (2 people conspiring can do a 51% attack, and actually have done so during the coin fork), block size limit hindering growth (see SatoshiDice), altcoin popularity rising (LTC soon to be added to MtGox; Ripple emerging as possible alternative). Oh, and of course that there are no popular actually used (ie, by lots of people with lots of volume) economic applications I know of besides SatoshiDice and Silk Road. There is still no Bitcoin economy.

PS: Talking on a scale of weeks/months here, of course. Short term I guess I am mildly bullish.

Exactly, must be a hyperdeflation in the dollar. Bitcoins purchasing power can never go down!

When are the Hunt Bros 2.0 going to sell?

It was only a matter of time before proudhon was right. You should have listened.