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This price behaviour is certainly reminiscent of July 2011 now.
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As much an effect as China had.
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Ultrabull is the default character selection in the Bitcoin MMO. Pretty much everyone starts out as one.  |
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Obviously, reptile is one of the smartest persons on the planet, so I'm afraid we will have to wait with 300k USD until next Easter, and not Christmas.
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If you find something that is worthy of deletion or belongs to another section, just use the report button in the lower right corner.
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Hello there. I've been back for a while now if you haven't noticed. I took over again from Yuhfhrh. |
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Yes, this thread is pretty worthless actually.
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My my, a non-ultra bullish smoothie?
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Considering what happened to MySpace and eMule, I'm not so sure. I believe that in the longer term, this will strongly depend on our ability to utilize it and create more value in form of "killer apps". You know, the things that when we speculators get bored are still used, because there is no good alternative. When the price declined from 32 to 2, Silk Road was still here, and people still bought their drugs there, providing some value.
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Gold is a barbarous relic. |
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The thing that I'm beginning to realize is, there may already be so much emotional and financial investment in Bitcoin that it's at a network effect/brand awareness tipping point so that even if there is a competitor that is technically superior, it may not substract from its value. MP3 for example is inferior to other compression algorithms, yet it's still what pretty much everyone uses because everyone uses it. And, if Bitcoin is to be displaced, it can take a long time to push it off its throne.
I'm only a little disappointed so far in that I only see work in the intermediaries (coinbase), nothing really revolutionary like Silk Road. Something that makes use of its properties that conventional currency cannot provide. While enforced monetary scarcity is the main thing going for Bitcoin, I would like to see more "killer apps" providing an underlying value in order to distinguish it more clearly from xyz scamcoins.
Sure, being able to buy gift cards for Burger King with Bitcoins in the US is nice. But let's not kid ourselves, it's only convenient if you already posess Bitcoins and happen to run out of USD. An unlikely scenario.
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Nagle, why did the 2011 bubble reinflate?
Explain the endgame.
dude, you've been a pretty big bear yourself. And it's helped me out a lot already. I could buy back at 266 and still have more BTC than before. I understand your strategy has worked brilliantly so far. I'm just doing what I can to manage my risk. Also, I'm turning more bullish if you noticed. Mildly bullish. |
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Nagle, why did the 2011 bubble reinflate?
Explain the endgame.
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i'd buy as much as you possibly can. take a few loans out if you can.
I would not do this. Whatever could go wrong? |
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Because the Humble Indie Bundle people have finally accepted Bitcoin thanks to Coinbase. No, just a hunch based on the continued high activity I'm seeing still in the Bitcoin community. I would have expected people to get bored. Same goes for the money on MtGox. I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.
That means that you weren't wrong. This is why crashes hurt so badly. You end up thinking that you were wrong, end up buying, see the price go down a bit, immediately realize that you weren't wrong, then sell at a loss. If you aren't thinking that you were wrong, that's when you should be worried. Yes, I realize that. I'm only holding a small part. I don't think there is a way to know which direction this market is headed until we see an actual breakout. And even then, we might be simply headed for a huge bull trap. It's true, the bear market is still a strong possibility. It's only been one month, and so we might be in July 2011 where after weeks of stagnation, the price broke down. I'm going to keep my eyes open and see if if this is the beginning of the "long, slow slide". |
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I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.
Either way, I believe we will get a very clear signal at the end of this stagnation.
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If we stay at the current price for a week don't we break the trendlines ?
We'll just draw new ones. On log charts, of course. |
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It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them. Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful. Not affecting it immediately and clearly perhaps but you can be sure it does affect it. As dull as it is, we need a period of nothing, calm, stability, no panics. If we manage that for a week or so we can skip the whole slow demise we saw in 2011. Price hovered around $14 for a month in July 2011. It didn't help. |
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29 days after the April 10 peakA bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete. Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ... https://i.imgur.com/Wqgpcu2.pngAnd for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ... https://i.imgur.com/X3C2OOp.pngAlthough the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1. Good job, very clean comparison. It will be very interesting to observe if we are indeed in July 2011. |
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That's great to hear from user "bitfan2013" on Reddit, an anonymous internet forum.
Seems legit.
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