there's no doubt that the volatility is hiding a midterm downtrend.
You learn quickly.  OP: Should bounce off from about $100. |
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Welche Ursachen hatte denn der Kursanstieg von 13 bis 266? Keine, purer Medienhype, pure Psychologie.
Die Leute suchen immer im Nachhinein nach Ursachen, aber in Wahrheit gibt es einfach keine echten, weil Bitcoin keine Fundamentaldaten hat, die die Valuierung unterstützen.
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There will be many bull traps, many "OH LOOK AT THIS NEWS THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING", many delusions about another bubble, but the 2011 survivors know exactly what's up.
The ride down will be full of epic bull traps.
The Great Dollar Extraction is not a matter of days. It is a relentless force exerting its power over months and possibly years, until there are no more bones to be broken.
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On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble.
That makes a whole lot of sense. I will have to think about the ramifications. On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.
The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all. I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts? |
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There will be countless bull traps along the long way down, and it will last many months. Only he who recognizes the Great Dollar Extraction can profit off the bounces.
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This time is different than 2011.
This time it's worse.
The Great Dollar Extraction is upon us.
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Confidence shatters. It's a long slide down folks.
Indeed. We've got a long way down. |
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Isn't it pretty much decided that the blocksize limit will be increased?
AFAIK, there is no consensus whatsoever amongst developers whether it should be done at all. We will likely hit the ceiling before anything is done. In terms of fundamentals, people are still zealously innovating/building services. I get the feeling there is a generally optimistic mid-term/long-term outlook in terms of bitcoin development/utility.
Judging from your account date, I'll just assume you weren't here in 2011. Back then, following the MtGox hack and some other exchanges failing, there have been good news all along with cool stuff being built. People just didn't care about them, in the same way they didn't care about bad news during the parabolic rise. This market likes to alternate between positive and negative feedback loops. It's not based on "fundamentals" but almost exclusively psychology. |
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There is nothing to be ashamed of, drug prohibition is the immoral thing. Silk Road is legitimate economic activity and I believe the center point of what others label the "Bitcoin economy".
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I would sell my kidney to buy $16 bitcoins (if I could do such a thing). I think we might approach $50 again, or even break it. But it won't last very long at all. New ATH in 2014. Unless of course, bad shit happens to the fundamentals. I'm assuming infrastructure/services growth of past several years continues, as well as increased understanding/appreciation from general public around the world.
I'm not one so bold to assume that the fundamentals will remain unchallenged within a new bear market. I don't know if Bitcoin really will emerge as #1 Digital Cash out of this, because it appears that xyz crapcoins are actually gaining in significance, and at least two of them will be trading on MtGox. Then, there is the tx/block scaling issue and there's the "cp in blockchain" thing. Basically, I have no idea if Bitcoin is MySpace or not. I'll let the market point that out as the Great Dollar Extraction proceeds. |
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Of course. Sentiment will have to be very bearish after a long period of the downtrend, and ideally, shorting will get popular somewhere and bring us a nice short squeeze to form a real capitulation bottom.
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2/32*266=16.625 For perspective. 80% is very large indeed in the short term. That's why I bought the rebound, as it was near certain to retrace a lot. But over the long term? Many people are still sitting on huge unrealized profits. A too bullish sentiment is well displayed by upvote ratio and abundance of posts like this one. "Just hold, it will go up again". Make no mistake, the Great Dollar Extraction is here, and it has come to consume us. |
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In 2011 Silk Road was about 80-90% of Bitcoin transactions. Today it is closer to 20-30%.
Source? I haven't heard about new numbers from SR. |
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A usual bullish divergence would be a lower low on price and a higher low in the RSI reading. Very well, we'll talk again in a few weeks. |
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I've been saying this for ages. Silk Road is the single most driver of REAL bitcoin trade there is.
Most other "businesses" that accept bitcoin are doing very little volume. Whereas SilkRoad is pumping massive amounts through.
Bitpays announcement of $5m is absolute horse shit lies.
That's right. It's been two years now, and the only widely used economic application for Bitcoins I see besides Silk Road is Satoshi Dice (obviously besides speculation+mining). I'm willing to be proven wrong, though. Is there anything with more users and volume? Most of Bitpay's claimed volume was due to Avalon's ASICs which were sold through them. |
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You wouldn't listen. How are things now, arepo? |
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Tell that to the Japanese.
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