Just want to post a sad brag.

I have mentioned my family is up against some medical issues right now.  The bills are eating us alive.  It is what it is.  I am trying to avoid putting too much strain on my corn horde, and am liquidating some other things as much as I can instead.  One thing was a small cadre of stocks that has done QUITE WELL over a short time as the markets have been irrationally going up as we all know.  Well... lol.  I think there is a great chance I sold these things at the tip top.  I am not a trader and usually if I try to make strategic moves any more complicated than DCA, or "buy when blood".  But I think the financial need of my circumstances just might have got me out right at the very moment that the US markets might just be peaking.  For now at least.

Now that I have said that the fed will announce negative interest rates and the rocket will keep going.

As to Bitcoin... I agree with bunny.  We could be in for a little nastiness as the markets start melting.  Ultimately we know where it goes though!

Not getting the joke, I think?

This is EXACTLY what I was talking about in my recent "The next XXX are critical" post.  

I think if we break down from here it just about locks in a cycle capitulation event.  I do not think it will be as low as many have called for...

Also the macro environment, and geopolitical scene and everything else is pointing towards rough waters.

And conversely if we DO bounce here.  PARTICULARLY against the market trends (doubtful).  Then I think we will see a strong movement back towards 48k.  I say we are 2:1 dogs at this point.

Bullish underdog fractal:

Yeah... this is a super tone deaf move on the part of the Haveno crowd.  Also possible they were paid to do it.  I also see the complaints from team Monero-fanboys to be fairly hollow as why shouldn't we offer X trading pairs?  If there is a market to and from XMR<>ZEC then why shouldn't the include it?  Let people who want to take on ZEC do so?

Anyway... they should have known this would blow up in their faces.

Totally agree with the assessment, and the first impulse has started.

My main issue is really that all of the markets look like ass right now, and Bitcoin seems to be tracking with the stocks.  I want to think this is a head fake, but I think we could be headed to a capitulation.

This really is kinda good.  Lol.  Took a sec to hit though!



We should add Bitcoin to the list I think?  At least Doge...

It has been said.  So many times.

The next XXX are critical!

At the crux of the two big model types for Bitcoin price. Bulls vs bears.  Each model has some interesting, even compelling sub varieties.  Some able to exist WITH the others, some invalidating the others one way or the other.  The point of this post is we are not going to have to wait TONS longer to kind of find out...  For example PlanB's model below has a real shelf life on it, and so do all the others based on the prevailing cycle theory.  We are at the halfway point in this 4 year cycle.  It will be under a year to really know what the overall direction is.  And that is the max, I think.  

The Bullish scenarios:
-PlanB's S2F model, and an average price of right around 100k this cycle (I think that's it?) meaning we should see a fairly good run in the near future.  And the a price oscillating around that ~100k locus for most of the remainder of this halving, and then the gears slowly turn for the next one.
-The Supercycle/S-curve and related theories (Preston Pysh, Dan Held, cAPSLOCK et al).  In this one adoption drives the price astonishingly higher at a crazy pace, most likely outpacing PlanBs 100k center and breaking it to the upside.  Things like Nation state adoption, and much greater institutional adoption (Spot ETFs, 401k allowing corn)  This could be about to happen, or we might have to wait one or more cycles further  before we see it.  I thin one interesting aspect of this idea is it can come at any time.  It is not dependent on the 4 year cycle.  It is more dependent on adoption, and a singularity of buying pressure.

The Bearish scenarios:
Modified cycle theory/standard TA (DaveTheWave? LFC).  We did not see the type of top we would thought possible based on past bullish multiples.  Instead we had a more reasonable downcurved log sort of function.  Similarly this cycles pullback will not be the 80-90% type but something more like what we have seen so far (40-50%) with the possibility of a capitulation phase that dips further.  Since this is part of a 4 year cycle it will take a little longer but when zoomed out look like one of the dips to 3k-ish during the end/middle of the last cycle.  A last shaking off of the weak hands before the next run.
Standard cycle theory  This one is already possibly invalidated for the top.  And actually we should see one more push really... to get Bitcoin to a higher multiple before we drop 80-90% again for the next run.  Interestingly many are still calling for the BIG BEAR part even though we never had the bull we would expect.  This continues to support the invalidation of this one since an 80% drop from 69k would put us WELL BELOW the last cycle top which has never happened in the history of Bitcoin.


Oh yeah let's not forget:
Bitcoin is a bubble! (Proudhon,  Various asschapped goldbugs, that weird dancing gay space man going blblblblblblb daht dah dah!  Bitcoin is a bubble!)  We are going to zero!  Soon!

I personally rank the possibilities with a bias towards the Supercycle, with the modified cycle theory being a fallback in case THIS TIME is not going to be the supercycle run.  I see the modified cycle theory as stronger at this point than I did 6 months ago.  But I have not heard any fat ladies yet...  And Bitcoin is nothing if not the master rug-puller of everyone's pet theories.  If we do not see a lot more adoption in the next year or two that drives price in a direction that breaks the cycle of the last 3 halvings, then I believe we will see it on one of the next ones.   And I am personally good either way.  I don't need any more value to be in Bitcoin for my own personal security, and that is nice.  I would really like for more recent adopters to also get a taste of that before we are all done... and frankly the possibility that we have seen most of Bitcoin's price appreciation already?  Seems like nonsense to me!

Hold!

Here's to hoping you are.  I will also be past my expected expire date.  So let's hope we get to argue about who was right over a smooth glass of rum.

This statement always boggles me.

LN may indeed begin to pay it's nodes more than a miner will make from the SUBSIDY.  But LN nodes along with every other form of L2+ will have to eventually settle on the chain.  And very large transactions will settle on chain.

Current Subsidy = 6.25BTC = $250,000
Number of transactions in a full block ~ 2500 (This may improve, but lets assume it does not)
Fee per base chain transaction to equal current block reward = 0.0025BTC = $100

Will fees be able to support the above?  Of course they will!  And the system will drive the technology of wasting the ABSOLUTE LEAST amount of base chain space possible,  Profitable businesses that use the base layer will consolidate as many meaningful transactions into a single BTC movement as they can.  And if not?  They will pay the going rate anyway.

Those numbers up there?  Pretty solid! But let do some math with the butt pencil.

Let's say the lightning network starts doing 1 million transactions a second worldwide at a SINGLE SAT per transaction (basically the worst case scenario for note operators).  Every second a million Sats would be charged for transactions on the network.  That means that in 100 seconds a WHOLE BITCOIN worth of fees would have been payed to the nodes.  And in the space of the average bitcoin block (600sec/100sec) we would see SIX bitcoins of fees be paid.

Then those nodes will have to compete for block space to settle on the base chain.  So a certain percentage of that earned income will go DIRECTLY TO THE MINERS.  And conveniently our butt pencil math has us at pretty much the current block reward!  6BTC/block.  And if we only pass half of that to the miners then they will make basically the amount of bitcoin they will earn after the next halving in fees!

Like I said these are not real numbers.  And the lightning network will not be the only source for competition for space on the base chain.  But i can most certainly imagine a world in which the miners would never want to go back to a paltry 6.25BTC Subsidy.

But cAPSLOCK now only the banks can transact on the base chain!!!

Nope.  That is wrong.  ANYONE can.  Anyone willing to pay the fees.  Or anyone with a miner willing to include their transaction in a block regardless of fees.  But in a free market the payment has to come from SOMEWHERE.  And it has to be fees eventually.  But did you ever think that miners might include their own transactions for nothing?  Think about that for a moment.  You own a huge mining farm, AND you have a lot of LN payment processors.  Next block you find?  The first 400 transactions are all yours.

And those fees will have to go up by two methods.  Value, or quantity.  Or both.  Either we increase the number of transaction a block can hold, or we increase the amount each transaction pays.  Or both.  And that balance will also be determined by the huge sea of nodes that validate transactions.  As tech gets stronger and the blockchain can remain decentralized but add blockspace?  We might just see increases to the block size.  But if not we will certainly see increases to the fees.

The lightning network will not kill mining.  And it might just end up being the biggest customer.

I am not sure what Elon's actual position on Bitcoin is.

There is the Doge red flag.  And at the same time I cannot imagine he has been without some tutelage.  Someone must have helped him understand the reason putting everything on the base layer is not a real possibility without centralization.  you know... the thing that Hal Finney got in 2010.

So taking this down Binary paths:

He has not realized that basic fact for L1  - then he is either a moron (unlikely) or arrogantly unteachable (quite possible).

He HAS realized that but either does not care, or wants the centralization which makes him evil.

He HAS realized it but is being very careful about what he promotes after having wrecked a bunch of his acolytes.

Between Jack, and Saylor it's hard to imagine they have not talked about it with him, and explained why scaling in layers is the optimal solution.  And also why Doge is probably doomed even worse than Bitcoin when it comes to bloat.  I also think there is a sincere chance he actually believes the "inflation is needed for velocity.  And he does not know that Bitcoin has solved this by reducing technical friction so much that we will see spending simply because of that.

So we will get to see which one of those categories he is in.  To be honest I would not place a bet for any of it yet.  And I pride myself in being a good people reader, and troubleshooter.  It is very hard to tell with him.  I do get the sense he isa bit of a narcissist.  And is also on the spectrum somewhat.  But he also seems to be an idealist.  It will be instructive to see what he does with twitter, and as we move forward with crypto.

I say "crypto" because I would be surprised if he did not do more things to support Doge, sadly.  Even if he has seen the light with BTC, I would expect a high possibility that he would try to make something good out of the giant mess he's made with Doge.  It would be better if he just stopped playing, but I think this is unlikely.

Agree generally.  But it will at least be interesting to watch it unfold.  

I think it would be easy to underestimate the magnitude of the Musk Twitter purchase.

Yes, we might have to go on a ridiculous Doge detour (I hope not).  But there are so many ways that this has the potential to go in a positive direction.

I am not really a Musk fan, for sure.  But it seems to me his reasons for doing this are going to shake some things up.

He has hinted on taking the whole thing private, and is claiming to do so for the sake of "free speech".  Such interesting times!

I would love to see him fire the effing board right away.

I think so.  And I thin little by little this will happen naturally.  I just don't see any way to really accelerate the process all that much.

As to speculation.  I see us likely bouncing off 6.



Ugly.  But a cooling off is in the cards.  Bitcoin looks awful right now too.  We will see!

Well.  I made a very black and white statement, and I think it's a matter of degrees like everything in life.  There are all kinds of people buying Monero.  LOTS of them just want to make a quick buck.  They saw some youtube video that hypes Monero for one reason or another and so they went to Kraken or Binance and bought a little bag and left it there on the exchange with the rest of their shitcoins.  And they wait hoping that one of them will turn out to be "the next Bitcoin".

Maybe they know Monero's reputation as the "Pravacy coin".  But just like all the people with "their" Bitcoin in "their" Coinbase wallet. They think of "crypto" as a riskier new techno version of stocks.

And so you have this little core of toxic bitcoinners running around saying NYKNYC etc, but the vast majority of people have not figured out what self custody is important, and why it's even moreso with Monero since BEACUSE so few are taking custody of it the exchanges can sell their reserves (that the hold on behalf of their customers) short, or loan those monero to others to sell.  And on top of that they can sell a predictable safe percentage of their customers Monero on paper only since they know they will never have to ship anything.

I do not see any easy way to get enough people to understand this for it to matter a lot.  I think it's astonishing the little grounswell that the monerun caused.  Imagine if it really started taking hold.  With the majority of the customers.  THEN we would see something.

Something is really off about this dude.  And it's not that he is just 110% full of shit.  Something is off.

I believe I foretold this possibility.  It could be a nasty speed bump along the way.  Though it will not succeed.

Here's the reasoning.  Eventually they will realize that there are ways they can collude to control Ethereum, but Bitcoin solves the problem that THEY ARE.  Eventually the strategy looks like "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em."  But they will figure out they can take enough control of ETH to be able to remain in control.  Particularly one the Ethereum foundation rolls out the red carpet for them.

These are all the things that centralization begets. 

But you can't stop the truth of Bitcoin.

Yeah.  I think you're right.

You know... It kinda stinks.  Retail is just not going to organize enough to do the very simple thing that is needed to punish the exchanges.  And I suppose if they did it would just shut one or two of them down for Monero.

I *think* if we really could get all the retail traders and "investors" to take custody of their coins it could have an amazing effect on the value of the coin.  Really this is just as true for Bitcoin.  But the effect would be much more extreme with Monero.  The exchanges would be forced to buy shit-tons to cover what they would need to honor the withdrawals, AND the short squeeze could be magnificent.

I have often thought if it was done well it would dwarf the Gamestonk move.  Basically the same thing, but imagine how hard Monero would move.  If the exchanges were not able to operate dishonestly it could absolutely CRUSH one or two of them.

But there are just too many folks who don't give a shit, and are just leaving their coins in the custody of the exchanges... and blah blah blah.

Frustrates me.  Not because I want the price to go up (which obviously I have nothing against).  But because the people buying monero do not even understand what they have.

My Monero has NEVER been on an exchange more that 45 seconds past when I bought it.  Sometimes for fun I look at my old wallet from a million years ago and look at all the dpepasits and w/ds just for memory lane.

And I have mineed over the years..  That Monero has never even touched a fucking exchange.

Not that it matters at all... it's exactly the same as what is sitting in Exchange wallets.  Lol.

Anyway.  I do still think we can keep this going in the right direction.  In a way if the world keedps burning down, and exchanges get less and less honest...  It will do it all on it's own.

One last thing.  Is it not amazing screwed up that Tradeogre is probably the most honest exchange of the whole bunch at this moment...  kudos, in case you read this thread.

Did this get posted already?  Do not see it.  Not lots of sauces, but a usually trustable one:

https://forbes.mc/article/first-african-country-adopt-bitcoin-legal-currency-central-african-republic

A little Elliot wave possibility?

Ok.  Yeah.  It's all just a simulation.  Uncle.  Ya got me universe..