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6341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Smoothie's take on price and people's emotions related to price on: January 14, 2015, 09:40:33 PM
Well, here's some food for thought:

We expect the world's populous to someday use bitcoin daily as both a transactional currency and a store of value, when its exchange rate is $50K/btc and its volatility is something like +/- 2% per year (so the theory goes).

But how else are we going to get there, without price increasing though greater demand?  And without retail investors going through all the pain?

We can't just sit back and rely on early adopters, deep pocket whale investors, exchange owners, $100M/year funded infrastructure companies, Wall Street, ETFs and big banks getting us there.  Otherwise they just become our new overlords in the future (just like the Diamond miners who control 90% of all the diamonds in the world, and national governments buying up all the available gold, letting us buy the scraps at $1300/ounce).
6342  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: January 14, 2015, 06:53:01 PM
Let's bump this thread in 2017, shall we? 

We can compare his bitcoin worth then, with what the house average appreciation would have been had he held on to it. Wink
6343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why I believe a beautiful and very bullish Bitcoin storm is forming on: January 14, 2015, 06:05:40 PM
It would be stupid to sell now I believe.  This is all just part of the "storm." The rebound will just be all the more exciting when it happens.  My husband isn't quite as bullish as I am though.  He was even talking about selling and walking away this morning.  That kind of talk just drives me crazy!  

A bull married to a bear is painful.   Cry



I know the feeling BitChick, my wife is the bear now.  What's worse is that she was the one screaming buy! buy! buy! when it was going up.   Roll Eyes

Gotta be in it for years to win it.
6344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 05:59:47 PM
Where the fuck is wall street?

I was promised wall street  Angry

They are absolutely dying to get in. But at the right price. When all the weak hands are shaking.

No according to Barry Silbert, Wall Street has been diving in since 3rd quarter of 2014.   Roll Eyes
6345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 05:58:00 PM
Bitcoin and stock market are both nose diving today.

Indeed, the resemblance is striking:
...
Dow-Jones Industrial Average, 1 year

Hardly.  Zoom out to 5-year troll, the DJI is still in the channel..

6346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are we being played? on: January 14, 2015, 05:30:08 PM
It looks like standard human emotions driving market behaviour. I don't think a nefarious manipulator is needed to explain anything, as tempting as it is to believe such things.
Thats just my 2bits.

The Average Joe pro-bitcoin investor may be emotional and twitchy, but traders and early adopters are not.  The Average Joe holders out there, even if there are tens of thousands of them, do not collectively have the extremely high volume of coins that we are currently seeing being dumped on the exchanges.  Only deep pocket whale traders and large miners would.  Some over-leveraged longs have been wiped out.  Also, we could still be seeing thousands of stolen coins from Mt. Gox and Bitstamp being liquidated.
6347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 05:22:01 PM
6 months ago half this sub was praying for coins this cheap. Because they would gobble them up and then the price would magically go to 1000 again and make you rich.
So what happened? Where is the cheap coins party? Where are all the people showing how they gobbled up tons of cheap coins?

Oh come on Shroomie, even you know that there are only about a dozen bulls total on this sub.  And they're all broke.   Cheesy
6348  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is really fucked up on: January 14, 2015, 04:55:43 PM
Safer? yes. No system is as safe as bitcoin. By comparison credit cards are a joke. There are scams everywhere but those who "invest" in scams are not exposing a bitcoin risk, they are the risk. The FDIC insurance does protect your money. However you could also insure your bitcoins. Like any insurance, you have to pay for it.  
I am on my third bank card in a year, but I still have bitcoins from 2011. If you do your job and secure your coins they are very safe from thieves.

Plus it is negligible to the economy for hackers to steal a few tens of millions dollars a year when Uncle Sam keeps printing $65 Billion of them a month.   Tongue
6349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Suicide / Kill ? on: January 14, 2015, 04:52:10 PM
At no point in the whole history there was a system subjected to such scams, thefts, sheer incompetence and stupidity.

You really don't do any research, do you?  Pirateat40

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/networks/sec-charges-texas-man-with-running-bitcoin-ponzi-scheme
6350  Economy / Speculation / Re: anybody just bought some. lets get a show of hands on: January 14, 2015, 04:36:28 PM
I'm going to increase the shit out of my long position in the coming months.  This is awesome.
6351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 03:30:36 PM
What's the most bullish thing imaginable? I would like some brainstorming please.

Gox reopens with LTC and Midas, gives everyone back their lost coins +50% for the trouble. Turns on the Willy.



And then a massive dump ensues.
6352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 03:07:40 PM
What will friday bring. Cheesy
https://twitter.com/AdamGuerbuez/status/555289659958628352
(guy who twitted about stamp problems 24h before stamp went down...)

More on Adam Guerbuez's background: here

Good to know.  Seems like a ruthless mindfucker.

Is this guy wealthy somehow?  Because how does someone pay Facebook $873 million in damages if they are not wealthy?  I thought only top celebrities and Kim Dotcom had that kind of money.
6353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 02:59:25 PM
What's the most bullish thing imaginable? I would like some brainstorming please.

I shudder to think, because traders have dumped on every major bullish Bitcoin announcement in 2014.  Don't see why this one would be any different.
6354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 02:19:29 PM

So, my guess is that the Chinese government does not care anymore about what happens on the exchanges, because it is no different than what was happening before bitcoin, with the speculation in those commodities.

The PBoC does not care any more, because bitcoin trading is confined to the exchanges, and cannot interfere with the role of the yuan in e-commece and with the banking and financial sectors -- which is what they care about.  Some other parts of the government were concerned with criminal use of bitcoin, but the exchanges got scared into fully cooperating with the police through AML/KYC.  I believe that they also got a scolding from some other sector of the government about their attempts to market bitcoin to the masses, so they pulled back on that too -- no more sponsoring of bitcoin conferences, and no more open houses featuring the Bitcoin Goddess.

In short, the Chinese government must now be worried about the fairness of bitcoin exchanges to the same degree that they worry about the fairness of the casino tables in Macau.  That is, not at all.

I'm quoting you on this Jorge, and I'm going to completely throw it in your face in the future during the next bubble when the Chinese Govt and the PBoC starts up again with more threats of banning and other such nonsense.  They only care about popping supposed bubbles in their crap shadow Ponzi economy, that is all.
6355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Did the Bitstamp fiasco kill Bitcoin? on: January 14, 2015, 02:15:02 PM
I agree with your sentiment. Exchanges that don't scam you are vital for price discovery, and IMO it's a big reason why MtGox and Bitstamp have been huge blows to the demand side.

Still the exchanges will avoid to even be properly audited, in this trustless climate, even though it would help them gain volume and raise the price (both increases income with % based fees). Because they are run by crooks and amateurs.

Hell, Bitstamp has been hacked recently and no audit is coming forth. How crazy is that?

Completely agree, and something needs to be done to give the public assurances that these exchanges are solvent and run by the book.

Unfortunately though, I'm not sure how this could be handled without a trusted third party entity that periodically runs audits and issues certifications.  Kind of like a worldwide Better Business Bureau for Cryptocurrency exchanges.  Perhaps this is what the Bitcoin Foundation could evolve into one day.  I'm not a fan of regulation per se, but I just don't see how exchanges can be trusted otherwise.
6356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 01:44:26 PM
Blood in the streets.
Is anybody going to buy?
I'm a lot of $ down but would anybody recommend buying now?

I've been looking at these chart patterns for years and this is not a trend reversal pattern. It may go up a little but then another wave of selling will bring it back.

Of course the opposite strategy may work: nobody (myself included) thinks this is a good time to buy, which is why it may be.

Well, I'm not sure that a trend reversal is going to happen anymore like it did back in the day, with a sharp high volume bounce and then sudden steady buying.  It could end up being a drift sideways and slightly up for months that finally signals that was the bottom.  Or no reversal at all, just sideways drift for months.

Another thing that has gone on with this downturn is the length of time, the longest in Bitcoin history.  After 14 months of down, even the hardcore bulls are skittish to start buying again.
6357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sold out after hodling for 1.5years on: January 13, 2015, 03:55:01 PM
I was acquiring monthly, so most of it came after ~600$.

I guess that was an epic fail. Still believe in bitcoin, but I aint investing/hodling/considering startup ideas until some consolidation and less volatility.
Boy I sure have some regrets, but thats life.

I hope thats a bullish sign for those of you left here grasping for straws

You've been invested for 1.5 years but your Bitcointalk account is only 9 days old?  Riiiight.  Troll detected.

/Ignore
6358  Economy / Speculation / Re: is anyone else as stupid as me to still hodl? on: January 13, 2015, 03:11:16 PM
I sold some, I bought some and I hodl the rest. Bitcoin needs all of these and I'm supplying it. Grin

Always keep some fiat powder dry to buy when it drops, my next buy orders are sitting around $200. I can't help but love the drama and emotions these drops are causing. People who really believe they can become rich here need a lesson in humility and Bitcoin is surely teaching it. Cheesy

Actually you can still become rich on bitcoin one day, you just have to invest enough to get there.  Most people don't have enough balls to take the risk.  

For example, in 2012 a risk-adverse guy with $50K to invest, looking at $10/bitcoin would have only likely invested a fraction of that, say 5-10%.  Because he would've been scared to lose it all.

But a risk taker would have dumped it all into bitcoin, and would have made 10X more than the risk adverse guy.  

There's a BIG difference between a payoff of $500K and $5M.  The guy that made $500K can maybe buy a nice house, cars, and/or live off of it for a few years.  The guy that made $5M can retire for life.

"Nothing ventured, nothing really gained."
6359  Economy / Speculation / Re: is anyone else as stupid as me to still hodl? on: January 13, 2015, 03:04:56 PM
If the OP is stupid to hodl, then I guess the owners of the top 100 bitcoin addresses are the dumbest guys/gals on the planet.  Actually they are increasing their positions, not decreasing.
6360  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: January 12, 2015, 06:12:13 PM
Risto, what's your opinion on the latest price declines?

I would be interested to know this as well.  Risto, are you a buyer at this level, or would you be if you had more funds to invest?

Btw, it's your thread so ignoring the detractors I think you have the right to give your opinion on price levels and investing strategy, whether you get it right or not (because no one truly knows 100% what the market will do).  I have always appreciated your insight on the market, one of the few in this subforum.  At this point I'm feeling the bitcoin price has overcorrected drastically, so personally I'm a buyer here even if we drift still lower in the coming months.

Hopefully a troll won't come in here and try to squash this exchange.
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