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641  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 07:42:56 PM
https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Quote

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.


Just waiting for the day  Grin


Or, as history shows, will see a lot of Nimitz class aircraft carriers suddenly moving in its direction. But first one needs to take one for the team, then critical mass will follow, but we're few years from that

I seriously doubt it if China, Russia or EU do it.
Then again, if it is a country which starts with "I" and ends with "n" or another cough-NK-cough, then, sure, it's quite possible.

EU has the brrrrr printer, China is oppressing its citizens and fighting the capital outflow, Russia has the most to gain but anything that can be perceived as challenging current status quo would be fought against, so don't see any of them willingly accepting BTC anytime soon. It has to start with a small nation dipping their toe in first, floods always start with a drip first
642  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 06:34:02 PM
https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Quote

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.


Just waiting for the day  Grin


Or, as history shows, will see a lot of Nimitz class aircraft carriers suddenly moving in its direction. But first one needs to take one for the team, then critical mass will follow, but we're few years from that
643  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 06:30:14 PM
Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286 208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something
644  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 02:18:09 AM

Ahh that one hurt the most, hitting $2xx was painful. Can someone update it to reflect current reality?
645  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Happy π Day! No, a Bitcoin mining ASIC cannot calculate the digits of π. on: March 15, 2021, 02:10:21 AM
The Bitcoin network cannot calculate the digits of π.[/url]  Not at all.  Not even one digit.  That is the meaning of “ASIC”.  Furthermore, as I mentioned briefly, the algorithms used to set these pi calculation records are I/O-limited, not CPU-limited.

You know, while I'm sure you're completely correct, it wouldn't surprise me if some clever bod found a way to exploit some characteristic of hashing to be able to calculate PI using some tricky methodology.



*ahem* *ahem* primecoin anyone, but that's my wetdream, for BTC to switch POW to something useful instead of SHA256, like sequencing genes SETI etc...
646  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 10:15:03 PM
bitcoin down over $1000! is this the start of a bear market?


Quick search of post history & I can see the username matches (I’m not sure if you belong with elite gentlemen in the WO. The Altcoin sub called, it’s missing its brokedummy).

I’ve seen many of your kind come & go over the years. Trolling in this thread won’t make you happy after messing up the opportunity of the century by selling all your bitcoin too cheap & ending up as a sad, brokedummy.




Well I hope ya'll are proud of yourselves. down $5000 in 6 hours, of course one more tweet and you're all rekt again. we'll see tomorrow

I sold too early on the last bull run and never got to buy the coins back....

Hi guys I also need a loan of 500$ right now through paypal

Good find, LFC, good find. Observing those weak hands that sold their coins so low, coming over to WO to troll and play smart and know-it-all wise guys, is sad and amusing at the same time. That's why my Ignore List is, and always will be, empty. Guys like brokedummy, proudhon, r0ach, STRF, gembitz, are kind of like little clowns that cheer us up when corn is going sideways and things get a little boring.

I'd say, let them troll and enjoy the show. Just don't feed them, 'cause they're going to shit on you.

I mean I'm still hodling the second half of my stack after all these years. Yeah I sold early to make sure I was playing with house money and lost half my bitcoins that I'll never get back but I just posted that I sold puts and bought out of the money calls for this week. It's a bullish play. Why the hate?

Let's see:

Sodled half the stash at $1200 ✔
Dived into shitcoins ✔
31337 traded to a lower BTC stash ✔
Now selling BTC upside for premium (covered calls) ✔
Hodled 𐄂

Pretty much typical "trader"

Edit: No hate, just underlying lessons for other noobs "traders"
647  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 08:04:19 PM
bitcoin down over $1000! is this the start of a bear market?


Quick search of post history & I can see the username matches (I’m not sure if you belong with elite gentlemen in the WO. The Altcoin sub called, it’s missing its brokedummy).

I’ve seen many of your kind come & go over the years. Trolling in this thread won’t make you happy after messing up the opportunity of the century by selling all your bitcoin too cheap & ending up as a sad, brokedummy.




Well I hope ya'll are proud of yourselves. down $5000 in 6 hours, of course one more tweet and you're all rekt again. we'll see tomorrow

I sold too early on the last bull run and never got to buy the coins back....

Hi guys I also need a loan of 500$ right now through paypal




I usually reserve this for coinbase users but feels oddly appropriate here. To each his own i guess

Keep going brokedummy, we're all watching you
648  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 07:58:36 PM
-multisnips-
Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.


Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

Ahh leverage, good idea, as long as markets keep going up 10% every year. How many months would it take to completely loose everything once market starts moving against you? Get triple whammy lose premium, your collateral gets reduced, and you get slammed with a tax bill once you're liquidated. Leverage is no panacea, despite what YOLO generation might say.
649  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 07:28:29 PM
bitcoin down over $1000! is this the start of a bear market?

good thing I only bought 500 doggy coins

I got exercised on the calls I sold last week so I'm selling puts this week. Bought a few 70k calls too. I'll probably be eternally behind on this trade and never get my sold coins back but I needed to get some fiat for down payment. Kinda crazy to think I'm selling puts at the all time high but I think this could be a good week for it. We'll see how this ages.


ahh another elite trader, after hrs of trading down on BTC but up in fiat just because BTC is going up.

Perhaps listen to your own advice?  Roll Eyes
Yesterday was a sad day for me. I always hodl when I should have sodl, but onetime I sodl when I should have hodl. So hodl I must.
650  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 05:59:08 PM
The lack of CCMF trains here is disturbing.

Will bears ever learn to not get in the way

651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 09:49:30 PM
Drill, Baby, Drill. save my short calls

What's your short target? I see 55k is a good support but is it strong enough? Do you expect lower?
Big picture people, big picture!

I need to raise funds for a down payment. If it ends today much higher I'll probably end up selling for less than I could have gotten just waiting to market sell today. If it ends lower than 54k I'll collect all the premium without selling anything. If it stays under 56k and over 54k I'll sell some for a good price and have some contracts expire worthless. I guess I can sell puts next week because it looks like its going to stay above 56k.

Looks like someone lost some BTC today.
652  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: March 08, 2021, 06:56:53 PM
...

Let's be honest Here those fat cats got wealth by just inheritance...
Or Went in private schools on their young age just coz they from nobility and up class family...
What make them so Special or smarter?  Non!
Its just they play together against others.
And Bitcoin belong to them so no point about crypto anymore If I invest in btc im depend on those wealthy fat rich guys who never worked in their lifes and never need to proof themselfes coz they all ready from higher class.

Yes the life is easy and wealthy for them but their personal development is zero.
They Can stay Only Behind their private vip schools diplomas but are they really better?
I doubt that they not even smarter.
Now they own Bitcoin so we might just admit Right to way we are slaves of them with no options at all
What we Can do?  Nothing even You try to do Something the the tax and government Will stop You down.
So What's the point to continue to play game named as success If the game is rigged and scam anyways?  
If we all Know that someone got just More privileges then we should stop being critical about Our lifes even we try 10000000 times hard we end up just fully exhausted and empty of energy.

Its better to give up in life and stop trying so hard to be financially Independent and Succesful.
The game is not fair so its Impossible for Acerage person to reach anywhere in life.

I give up no point!


Ok, thanks for informing all of us. As a side note, just remember that unfortunately giving up is not really an option, as by default you're placed into the fiat system (so the choice has already been made for you) where you're guaranteed to loose. BTC is an option to exit that system and at least gives you a fighting chance, there are no guarantees but the more you educate yourself the better your chances become. But to each his own, now back to discussion on grayscale
653  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: March 08, 2021, 06:13:52 AM
<...>
Also from your other graph % of locked shares is currently at 36,5% which is at the same level as it was in Sept 2020 when BTC price was around $10k. Still high, but will keep going down everyday the primary is closed/fund is trading at discount. At this rate we should be under 25% of locked shares by May 10th, and under 20% by May 24th, so might see discount till May after that things should come back to normal


Very true. The selling pressure is going to be real. I am just curious how Grayscale is going to handle this new situation for them, as they have been riding the positive premium for years!

I say keep it inside their walled garden and let retirement funds enjoy the discount at the cost of arbitrageurs  i.e. don't offer redemption and let it trade at discount until all absorbed on the secondary. Allowing redemption will just bring in a ton of market makers forcing the fund to sell real BTC on the market, which might cause further price decrease causing more people sell their shares raising the discount again etc etc  at least until US ETF comes online

Are You part of grayscale?  Why Else You promote grayscale Here then?
And Why we should be grateful the Bitcoin is low Not even 100k 200k Price range.

If the Wall street are in at least they should send the Bitcoin Price Up Why else we need them in Bitcoin? 

Let the grayscale do Something useful for us

Yeah pretty much what JJG said, math is under no obligation to you or anyone, honey badger don't care about entitlements or your feelings. Grayscale is just one tool to own BTC indirectly, and it's the easiest way to get exposure to BTC in a US retirement account. Just as a hammer can't do anything useful to you, but if you know how to use it you can build great things with it. fillippone has done a great job collecting the knowledge, tracking performance of this fund and sharing it with everyone so people can better understand it and make more informed decisions. As far as "wall street" they're just a primitive "animal" they only have one function, if there's profit to be made, they'll come (for better or worse)
654  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: March 06, 2021, 07:53:22 PM
Negative premium is becoming a thing in GBTC: yesterday it hit -11%.



That makes the shares in the secondary market quite a bargain!
But I am a little bit worried by now: where this selling pressure is going to? Flowing to another "ETF"? outright selling?

Also, from the spreadsheet: what is going o happen when those massive quantities of locked shares become freely tradable?



Also from your other graph % of locked shares is currently at 36,5% which is at the same level as it was in Sept 2020 when BTC price was around $10k. Still high, but will keep going down everyday the primary is closed/fund is trading at discount. At this rate we should be under 25% of locked shares by May 10th, and under 20% by May 24th, so might see discount till May after that things should come back to normal
655  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 09:00:33 PM
I'm with the other guy who thinks we should be grounded in reality for now. Space elevators are fun and all, but we could still cover a lot of surface area on the planet, maybe even in the oceans, for plenty of solar panels / arrays to power the world (or a bitcoin miner.)

I found this before: https://landartgenerator.org/blagi/archives/127



So it's not updated, but you can line up a whole bunch of solar panels near the equator and not much is needed to power the world (not including bitcoin miners) ...

That article also discusses wind power and hydroelectric power.


Edit: here is another one just for bitcoin.

https://landartgenerator.org/blagi/archives/5697



Well I have been in similar discussion with friends who still didn’t accept Bitcoin yet. So one time we discussed that it’s a fact tha a SME (coronal mass ejection) is a serious threat to humanity. And if it happens it will be a complete blackout for days, months or may be years. In such a mass disaster what will happen to Bitcoin?? when this whole Bitcoin echo system needs so much energy and constant internet connection  how Bitcoin will survive? Whereas paper money or gold can still be valued and used in such scenarios like nothing happened.

Well lets see, assuming mass CME lasting 24hrs to cover all of earth, power grid is fried, nuclear power plants shutting down some blowing up cause their redundant safety mechanisms are fried, some nuclear weapons/ships/submarines/planes might go boom, satellites supposed to have some protection but chances are won't hold up to such massive CME so GPS and SAT communications are done, planes falling out of the sky, mass hysteria, supply chains disrupted shortages of food widespread, armies are reduced to few guys running around with guns, ATMs are used for target practice etc, etc, etc... and you think i'll accept your monopoly coupons or shiny metal for this chicken that i'm trying to sell because i need more ammo? If such major disaster happens BTC would be the last of your worries. On a bright side surviving society's priority would be restoring the internet, once that's back up BTC would be the first one to come back online before any bank or ATM will start working.
656  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 08:40:28 PM

Can't you just point it there, fire a thruster, and let it go it's course? (I mean, calculate where it should end up, but yeah, basically go towards the sun.)

Nope. I think Larry Niven covered this too, prolific guy. You either speed it up, which takes it to a higher orbit or slow it down which takes it to a lower orbit. To take it to an orbit low enough to burn up in the sun, you need to slow it down the whole amount that the earth is orbiting the sun (about 67000 mph). There's a little bit of fudge in this due to eliptical orbits and drag from the sun's atmosphere but that's the basic principle. Essentially anything you fire into the sun is going to get there on a spiral path.

Correct. I really recommend reading up on the Messenger probe that went to Mercury, it needed an insane amount of fuel and a number of earth and venus flybys to slow down enough to even get to mercury. In space speeding up takes energy, slowing down takes energy, everything takes energy :-)

So, that last part, spend a little energy to throw something to the sun, then let it be.. It's going to spiral and never really get there and just be some space debris / comet?

I'd imagine if we have like a bunch of stuff (remember very old superman movie with nuclear bomb rockets in a large bundle that he just threw to the sun), but then that whole thing must be very heavy.

I always thought that the challenge was to calculate perfect orbits without it getting pulled in and crashing. Now getting into an orbit around the sun is the easy part?
657  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 09:08:42 AM
As of March 4th Canada's BTCC (TSX) ETF is holding BTC11.352 https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/purpose-bitcoin-etf
Canada's EBIT (TSX) ETF has AUM of $50.680MM or at $46.500 thats BTC1089 https://evolveetfs.com/product/ebit/
they only started to trade like 2 weeks ago

Just those two Canadian ETFs are eating up all of the newly mined BTC900/day supply. Grayscale GBTC offers no redemption so their BTC655.732 are not for sale. Distribution is a beautiful thing, expecting lambo traffic jams soon

658  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: March 05, 2021, 08:15:48 AM
Here's a interesting comment on seekingalpha about the current GBTC discount:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669426-mulling-bitcoin-and-100k-is-grayscales-discount-a-buy-signal

"Three reasons Grayscale (GBTC) is trading at a whopping big discount to the bitcoin it owns: (1) New ETF products that don't charge a hefty 2% annual fee for holding your bitcoin may soon appear. (2) GBTC is not redeemable. If the GBTC discount becomes excessive, Grayscale still owns the bitcoin, but existing shareholders get nothing and can't get the bitcoin out. So far as I know, there is no mechanism to bring the share price into line with the bitcoin price, which is why Im not buying any more GBTC. (3) ARKK is likely being forced to liquidate its holdings due to redemptions. As ARKK holds its bitcoin in GBTC, forced sales into a declining market could be pushing down GBTC to a huge discount."

I had not considered the sale pressure from a possible ARK liquidation. I double checked ARK ETF's that have GBTC, and it is not ARKK. It is in ARKW (ARK NEXT GENERATION INTERNET ETF), where GBTC is the 3rd largest position (after Tesla and Square), at 8,309,914 shares with market value of  $344,030,439.60 for 4.77% weight of the fund.

GBTC has Shares Outstanding 692.3M, so ARKW holds 1.200% (8.309914M/692.3M). I'm not sure if ARKW selling a bit of their a little over 1% would cause such a large drop in GBTC premium.

But in any case, I think it might be a good time to add some GBTC!


I'm not sure why everyone leaves this out, but don't forget that you're comparing the spot price of the secondary market (closing price of BTC Trust shares at 4PM ET on OTCQX®) to the BTC's volume weighted average price for the last 24hr (based on a 24 hour VWAP of TradeBlock’s XBX Index) which is really not an ideal comparison. When markets go down during the day your spot at 4pm will almost always be lower than the average, same is true for the opposite, market sharply going up means your spot at the end of the day is likely higher then the avg for the last 24hrs (weighted by volume). Looks like spot TradeBlock’s XBX on March 4th 4pm was around $48.192 (https://tradeblock.com/markets/index conveniently they're also showing GDAXs discount at -8,01% today) with Bitcoin per Share at 0,00094685 that would put BTC's spot NAV at $45,63 vs  $46.83 (March 4th 4pm ET, based on a 24 hour VWAP of TradeBlock’s XBX Index). There's still a discount but it narrows the gap.

As far as speculating on the reasons, GBTC fees are 2% while Canada's ETF BTCC (TSX) appear to be 1% and EBIT (TSX) is at 0,75%, naturally once you have an option people would gravitate towards lower fee structures. I might be mistaken, but i don't think Canada's market are an option for US retirement accounts Huh so until US ETF comes around GBTC (or similar fund) is your only option. GBTC is now closed and doesn't issue new shares, so inflows from retirement accounts into GBTC must absorb temporary outflows from regular accounts leaving for Canada. But there's a lag of people who bought at the primary and are currently locked in for 6month, so as long as there's net demand from pensions  for exposure to BTC, discount might continue for the maximum of 6month (baring US ETF).

tl;dr without US ETF discount should be temporary for the max of 6m. With the fiat printer going full Brrrr i'd be surprised to see US approve ETF, I'd expect them to hold out for as long as possible.
659  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 03:07:34 PM
Good Morning WOvians ... So we had a huge dump from our friend the fuck2pool again this night to get the price down under 50k ... luckly we closed yesterday over 50k. We had a nice breakout to the upper side of the bull-flag ... and it seems to be goingupwarts until a bigger dump cam up. My suggestion is again a couple of thousands corns were dumped from fuck2pool ...

Where do you get the data for f2pool?

Also, don't be too worried, the market will eat up all their coins. In addition, I think they are a chinese pool right? this means if they say they have a million coins they actually have no more than 100k. The chinese are so full of shit, they big note themselves at every moment. It's for 'face' everything is about face for these tossers.

CryptosRus makes several videos about this. They aree the only once how has and bitcoin outflow since december. And maybe it'S because they have mining farms in regions, where they forbidd mining in the future. Nobody knows, why they doing it, but they doing it. Nevertheless the number of coins they are moving ... Add several thousend to the market and the price is suffering. The same, add fiat money to the market and the price will go up.

Cryptoquant is one source. You can see the daily outflow for free. The hourly outflow you have to pay for it.

https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/227?window=day

To be clear. We can trade millions of coins between us, there is not much price movement. You have to put in fresh (fiat) money, than the price goes up or you put "fresh" coins to the market and the price is going down.
In the long run they will loose and their coins will be eaten up. But they can cause movement around some key points and invalid outbreak on patterns for example or put us under a psychological barrier ... So don'T underestmated the force of 8400 addtional coins on the market... Yesterday, for example.

You are right, if we have a massive buyer market, then they coins will be eaten up very fast!

Thanks for the link.

Yeah, long term is the way. I'm not going to deny that the short term movements from these sort of things don't suck, but long term its upward with f2pool sliding into irrelevancy.


Btw. 8400 Coins sems small when you see the movment on the market. But these are 420.000.000$ .. these are 42% of what michael put in fiat on the market. So 400 M$ has an impact in both ends. In fiat also in coins ...

willy woo says that glassnode data that checks the pool sales on exchanges does not at all hint any big f2pool sell.

So if they're tracing the outflows of f2pool, why can't they show remaining balance? This is bitcoin we're talking here right?

Plus i doubt that it's them, shouldn't Gox be liquidating their coins to pay out  the claims that decided to be settled in cash soon?
660  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 08:00:37 PM

Money printer is going Brrrr and they're out there cheer leading, trying to convince everyone how somehow that should not cause inflation. Frankly they'd be shooting themselves in the foot (even more so) if they allowed ETF right now. Can you imagine the front page headlines Brrrr printer printed gazillion dollars, on separate and totally unrelated news, BTC ETF is the best performing ETF and saw a gazillion dollar inflow in the same time period  Roll Eyes 2+2=??
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