TL:DR.
People that don't do any research lose their money.
LOL...this. Also I chuckle when folks constantly refer to Mt. Gox as a "they" or "them". As if Mt. Gox is like this HUGE company of employees. It's basically just one guy: Mark. One guy, a glorified sysadmin, that thinks he's a god, totally infallible, and that his site's shit code is the shiznit. The fact is that he got lucky with purchasing that site when he did, as he couldn't run a successful company otherwise. He definitely lacks the PR and customer service skills needed to survive long term. |
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Based on the prior displays of Redditors comments to be immature, thoughtless, rude, and outright disrespectful to authority, am I the only one who feels this is NOT going to play out well?
Mr. Lawsky had good, positive, constructive debate with Bitcoin advocates at the NY hearings. Let's not completely erase his memory of that.
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OP, I don't see an option in your poll for "And not a single f*ck was given about Mt. Gox".
Also, a Goxcoin is not a bitcoin. It's an "IOU" for a bitcoin. BIG difference.
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Although I'd love to see coins that cheap so I could buy a boatload, I just don't see that happening. Why? Because anyone who has studied the Trendline theory and believes in it will see that a dip to the $150-100 level and stay there for a long time (without 2+ million bitcoiners and many whales scooping them up instantly) would be almost catastrophic to the overall trend. Might as well get out of the game completely if that happens. Which is why I'm pretty convinced it'll stay ~$500's, with perhaps a flash crash to a bit lower.
90% of the price during the 2011 bubble was WELL above the trendline support level for the number of users at the time. That's why it took so long for the price to recover to that ATH.
The price is just now just at the trendline support level, and the trendline average price is growing every day that passes. And I'm not just talking about the support bids you see on the exchanges. I'm talking about the 2+ million bitcoiners (+ 10,000 per day that are new to bitcoin) waiting off exchange with fiat in their banks, ready to come out of the blue and pounce the minute they see the support price drop below the expected "trendline" support price (that's in their head, of course).
Do you *want* it to stay $500's though?... I do. I think that's the best indicator as to why it will not. Everyone kept talking about wall st getting into the market, well here it is... not as rosy as everyone thought though... I hate the idea that it might go as low as $100. Its terrifying. I expect everyone else feels the same. Until we reach those levels, then despair truly has not set in. (Just in case anyone thinks I have turned bear, I haven't. Still HODLing! Still Buying...) Hehe, yeah I understand how you feel. On the one hand I don't want it to go below $500, for multiple reasons. Because for one thing I bought a few coins at $1000, ugh (newb mistake). I sold a bunch at $850 to buy back lower. So I'm trying to even the odds with a new position. Also, because if it ever reverted to pre-bubble levels I would seriously start to question if bitcoin's growth is truly exponential. But that being said, my only goal right now is to grow the number of coins I hold. I've got about $20K waiting in the wings to buy more. Looking at an entry point of around $550-500 or so, I'd be happy with that, even if it flash crashed a little lower. And honestly if it went to $150 I'd probably still buy like crazy, with whatever money I had, even though the trendline growth would be severly broken. I'm a short term bear, but truly a long term perma-bull. I believe in bitcoin for at least the next several years, and I think a lot of other people do too (just look at the user growth). |
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Although I'd love to see coins that cheap so I could buy a boatload, I just don't see that happening. Why? Because anyone who has studied the Trendline theory and believes in it will see that a dip to the $150-100 level and stay there for a long time (without 2+ million bitcoiners and many whales scooping them up instantly) would be almost catastrophic to the overall trend. Might as well get out of the game completely if that happens. Which is why I'm pretty convinced it'll stay ~$500's, with perhaps a flash crash to a bit lower.
90% of the price during the 2011 bubble was WELL above the trendline support level for the number of users at the time. That's why it took so long for the price to recover to that ATH.
The price is just now just at the trendline support level, and the trendline average price is growing every day that passes. And I'm not just talking about the support bids you see on the exchanges. I'm talking about the 2+ million bitcoiners (+ 10,000 per day that are new to bitcoin) waiting off exchange with fiat in their banks, ready to come out of the blue and pounce the minute they see the support price drop below the expected "trendline" support price (that's in their head, of course).
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Apologies for the dreadful typos and formatting but I'm ill.
1. Final Capitulation
Last year we were hearing all about 'capitulation' from the chartists, who insisted 266 could not be bettered until we had experienced this mythical state. Look how that turned out. Say wha? There definitely was a capitulation to ~$70 before the price moved up. |
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This article highlights that often the simplest answer is probably closest to the truth. I fully believe that Mt. Gox is insolvent, because their pattern of behavior and communication correlates EXACTLY to a company that precisely IS insolvent. And their recordkeeping of accounts and transactions probably sucks beyond belief, preventing them even further to sort out their own mess. So this begs the question, will they get a bail out? Could some early adopter or miner have complete mercy on them, and just donate them thousands of coins? Or cut them a big discount? Or even give them fiat, perhaps as an investment to own a percentage of the company? Who knows. Otherwise, expect an announcement from them in a few months that they are done and closing the doors. |
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Count me among the optimists. Here's something I've been considering lately. I learned my big lesson in not trusting 3rd parties with any significant amounts of bitcoin in 2012 with the bitcoinica fuck up. Many of us learned that lesson through that experience and others back then. But, there just weren't that many of us.
This go around there are a lot more people with a lot more money invested in bitcoin. And this most recent incident was enormous in scale, affecting multiple 3rd parties. Basically, everyone just got schooled in why you don't keep lots of bitcoin with 3rd parties, and I suspect over the coming months we're going to see the bitcoin supply on exchanges drop as people withdraw their bitcoins and learn to hold them themselves.
The whole infrastructure is still maturing and VC interest is clear. However, VCs won't tolerate the risk of investing in startups with inexperienced management teams, and, therefore, I think we're in the midst of seeing it change hands from business owners with little real business experience to more experienced managers. My thinking is that the infrastructure is moving forward and becoming more mature and robust and more usable and interesting for end users and business integration, and I think supplies on the open markets will decrease. Combine those two things and I think you have the ingredients for another strong bull run later this year.
Just some thoughts.
I agree. One serious question Proudhon, let's say in 2-3 years there are 10x the number of exchanges that we have today. Combine that with more folks holding their own bitcoins in personal wallets. When the supply drops on all the exchanges out there, what effect will that have on the bitcoin economy overall? Just a side note though: right now I actually trust Coinbase with my BTC, more so than I do myself on my home computer. And I'm an IT guy. But that may change in the future, dunno yet. |
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Hey, I'll be releasing my coin very soon as well. It's called TorqueCoin. Since there will only be 2 coins ever in existence, it'll be like x10,000,000 profit on the very first day of launch. Stay tuned for launch date.  |
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So far, bitcoin has had little competition from other crypto-currencies. This may change in the future, considering that
now it's worth a lot of money to have a successful crypto. Apple may launch one, Google may launch one, both could have cute mascots.
Bitcoin is just the first and a good one, but not perfect. And against the marketing power of Apple or Google, bitcoin would eventually lose.
Didn't answer my question, but ok. Maybe your answer should have been "because if bitcoin no longer appreciates in value, it would in that case no longer be a speculative vehicle, so all the speculators would sell their bitcoins and leave (to another alt coin)." But by the time bitcoin becomes THAT stable with very little gains (or loses), all the speculators would have already left. |
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The problem with the trendline is that if you follow it indefinitely, then the conclusion is that eventually BTC will have infinite value. Which is obviously not true.
It also changes over time. Its easy to take historical data and draw a line on it, but that doesn't necessarily predict what the line will look like in future.
If growth was to carry on at the rate in the trendline, in under 10 years BTC would be worth more than everything else in the world put together. Its not very realistic
That's because it's not really exponential, it only looks exponential. The real shape is probably a bell, so after an unknown future ATH, bitcoin will enter a bear market from which it will never recover. It will simply be replaced by something better. I hope it's not that buggy litecoin clone with a cute mascot. If at that point bitcoin is serving both as a valid store of wealth and and as a stable currency, why would it be replaced? |
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I agree, this guy is using FUD to rip people off. So we're still thinking that bitcoin exchanges and their operators don't need to adhere to some level of oversight regulation and audit?  |
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They'll be back as soon there is some green on the daily, shouting "CCMF".
I keep seeing this 'CCMF' and I still have no idea what it means. Google suggests it is Community Concern for Mental Fragility, which seems about right. I believe CCMF stands for "Check Cashing Mo Fo". Someone that keeps making money doing the same thing over and over. |
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If the devs rush out a fix and it fails, or take too long, I will have questions about bitcoins ability to compete long term, even with the head start. Bitcoins greatest enemy is not governments or a lack of usefulness, it is competing cryptos, and if a crypto exists with 10x more developers, it will win.
So you really think that alternate cryptos have larger, smarter, and more well funded development teams than bitcoin? And the Bitcoin protocol being real-world stress tested on a global scale for vulnerabilities for over the last 4 years, while almost all of the new alts have been around less than a year (in some cases < 6 months)? And some of them not even based on the bitcoin code, but some dodgy custom code written by obscure developers, that hasn't even been fully tested and vetted? Hmmm... yeah, competing cryptos will win. |
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I am not going to be one of those who will be likely to catch this bottom. This is a cornered market and only precious few people have any realistic idea of predicting where the reversal is going to be.
And that right there, is THE solid point that a lot of folks are missing. Everyone thinks that the price is going to hit a bottom of $400, and stay there for a long time so that everyone will have a chance to get coins at that price. But just like the flash crash to $102 on btc-e, the likelihood is that it will flash crash to $400-$350 for only a millisecond. Very few will be able to catch coins at that price. The majority of Joe Bitcoiners won't. So the realistic BOTTOM price that most will be able to catch coins at the stable price just before and right after it bottoms out. And I'm guessing we're nearly there.... my guess is between $550-500. |
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Sorry to be debbie downer, but I don't personally believe there is any super secret TA going here on that only one person is privy too (no offense rpietila, I believe that you are a pretty sharp person and of higher intelligence than a lot on this board, lol).
If one simply believes that this bubble rise-ATH-burst-consolidate-capitulate-newATH pattern is pre-destined and will play out similar to that of April 2013 and even July 2012, all one really has to do is extrapolate the previous bubble data from the charts using % ratios and relative time frames. Not really that hard. I believe that bubble rise/falls are macro patterns that are inevitable... but we participants don't have the foresight or knowledge to predict what will happen to cause the relative price swings and exactly when. But if you believe in patterns repeating, it's enough to just "know" that history will repeat itself.
Will there be a final capitulation? Sure there will, because there always has been in previous bubbles.
Did we just have it? No one knows for sure, only future data will bear that out in hindsight. But the timeframe just seems a little soon to call it the lowest low, and the ratio of the price fall compared to previous capitulation doesn't quite measure up. But who knows, the market might be a little more resistant than it was in previous bubbles. We could have very well seen close to the bottom.
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MattTheCat, I agree that the dump by a couple of whales seemed to be coordinated and well timed at the end, taking advantage of the FUD factor. The only plausible explanation.
Could they do it again? Probably, sure, but I'm wondering if it was really only one time thing. Especially if it had been planned for some time. But hindsight is always 20/20, and in a month or two we could possibly be looking back at this moment in the charts as the final capitulation.
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As much as I like his webcast, I think a Maxcoin is just a ridiculous display of hubris. I would no more buy a Maxcoin than I would buy a Coinye, GavinCoin, or an AndrewAntonopoulosCoin. Pure silliness.
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I second that Coinbase is a good choice. Whatever you decide to do, I would go ahead and get your account set up with them and buy a tiny bit of BTC NOW. The reason being, there is a waiting period of 30 days while they verify your account and KYC stuff. You start at level 1 and have a purchase limit of 10 BTC/day for the first 30 days. Then after that, once you reach level 2 verification, they raise the purchase limit to 50 BTC/day. If you have a lot of BTC that you want to buy, and want to get the price you want it at, then I would definitely get this process with them squared away FAR ahead of schedule. Ask me how I know this. |
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