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841  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2020, 09:12:55 PM

In 2021 for sure, I’m not certain of that in 2020 but would love to be wrong.

My feeling as well ... the increase in 2020 is probably modest, but I expect / hope that we reach a new ATH in 2021 or 2022.

Main reason; the cycles are getting more spread out, and the halving is probably more anticipated now than the last time (more energy efficient miners, and so on). So I don't expect any fireworks starting before Q3 / Q4 2020.

I'd love to be wrong as well though, of course!

It would be very nice to hit anywhere between 10-14K in 2020, with the first number being more likely, IMHO.

I think we’ll close 2020 somewhere between 12k - 14k.

I pulled that straight outta my ass though (not investment advice).

That would be more than fine to me. Even if just consistently over $10K would do.

In fact I would prefer some 2x every year than an unsustainable bubble pump like every other time. That way I wouldn't feel the need to sell too much in preparation for the subsequent dump.

Still 2x every year, even if conservative in comparison to previous years rise, is a bit too much of a dream at this moment. And also if Bitcoin were to make a 2x for two consecutive years, it would be unavoidable to experience some FOMO that would propel it even way higher.

Bleh, Bitcoin doesn't care what we do think or want anyways. Let's just hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. Or just don't expect anything and just let it be, which is what I try to do.
842  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Random Thoughts on: January 02, 2020, 08:33:17 PM

But that was TSA, right? Not CBP?

TSA only cares if you're carrying a bomb, a knife, or a bottle of Coke. They couldn't tell a hard drive from a dildo. CBP are the ones that you don't notice on departure and they ask stupid questions on arrival ("where you're going?" "how long is your stay?" "look at the camera").

BTW some airports have automated kiosks you answer stupid questions on a touch screen and just show a receipt to an agent (again, if you have the right passport / green card / visa waiver / etc).

Yup, I think it was TSA. I have never seen those CBP's do anything else than asking stupid questions like you say, except one that literally trolled me big time (a hilarious anecdote, but probably offtopic).

Anyway... I think the best advice is to just try to cooperate and never, ever, self-admit anything (such as if a headerless hard disk is encrypted or not) you know they could not really prove in a court. More so if we are talking about the US and you are not a citizen, don't dominate the language, and don't know all the rules such as LoyceV said.

Also... It is understandable they don't really care about data (or any digital goods) being "smuggled" into/out of the country in encrypted hard disks. It is not as if there were any difficulty in transferring that same data via other means (ie. Internet). And we are already in 2020, where everyone and their grandmother do have encrypted data and it is almost (if not more) as suspicious having a fully plaintext hard disk.
843  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Random Thoughts on: January 02, 2020, 04:47:36 AM
I always get nervous when crossing the US border, probably unjustified, but knowing they can ruin my travel without needing any real excuse makes me somewhat uneasy tbh.

But the reality is that, most of the time, they are not that strict as they seem.

I remember one time, coming back from Defcon I had my handbag filled with all sorts of very suspicious items and purchases.

After passing the handbag scanner one agent comes to me and ask me if I have a computer in the bag. I very convinced say no, thinking to myself "I am not stupid, I know I have to put the laptop separately and out the handbag". He asks me again, and again I say "NO".

He then goes and make me open it.

Well... first thing that pops up is a red bull can that I planned to drink before boarding but somehow had forgotten about. Then just under it, a repurposed desktop mini PC I also had forgotten was one of the stupid things I had bought at Defcon. Also the badge (which was somewhat suspicious in itself - google defcon 20 badge and you'll see what I mean), and an assortment of items including a rubber ducky, a couple throwing star lan taps, heaps of sd cards and usb flash, and even a wifi pineapple!

At that precise moment I thought that couldn't end well...

And what did it happen? He just shrugged it off, threw the red bull can in the trashcan, ran one of those test drugs stripe on the contents (cannot blame him, lol), put the mini pc on the scanner to check I wasn't hidding anything inside and just let me go.

Did I have my laptop searched? No
Was I questioned about the strange looking computer I "tried to smuggle" in my handbag? No
Did he question me about ANYTHING? No

He just seemed a bit bothered because my stupidity had made him work extra, but that's all.

So, even in the (very) rare case someone is questioned about the contents of an encrypted disk... It is just that, a hard disk wiped out with random data, that is all.

There's no need to overcomplicate it with additional explanations that could maybe get you in further problems.

Not consenting to a search, refusing to answer any questions, or trying to state your right for privacy over your self admitted encrypted disk is probably asking for unnecessary trouble.

I am sure every lawyer would tell you it is in your best interest to, at least, give the appearance of cooperating instead of trying to be an ass over your rights no matter how right you really are.
844  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: Afirmar que la computación cuántica va a destruir a Bitcoin es una gran tontería on: January 02, 2020, 02:50:47 AM
Recomiendo este artículo que creo que recoge muy bien la relación entre la computación cuántica y el posible impacto sobre bitcoin:https://seebitcoin.com/2018/08/the-great-p2pk-bitcoin-heist-millions-of-bitcoins-will-be-stolen-but-should-we-even-try-to-stop-it/

Está en inglés, pero vamos, que los puntos centrales son:

- Aún se está muy muy lejos de llegar a la capacidad necesaria para lanzar un ataque viable

- En principio sólo las direcciones cuya clave pública sea conocida sería vulnerable. Esto es, las que se haya reusado y sigan teniendo saldo así como las utilizadas en 2009 y parte del 2010 ya que la dirección de destino era realmente la clave pública en si misma, y no un hash como se comenzó a hacer posteriormente. Osea, mayormente las conocidas como "satoshi coins" y algún que otro "alijo" perdido de aquella época.

- No es que se vayan a "romper" todas de golpe, sino que cada dirección/clave pública que se ataque llevará tiempo y recursos. Posiblemente más costosos que la recompensa, al menos en un inicio.

Vamos que hay tiempo, MUCHO tiempo.

Bitcoin tiene otros muchos frentes mucho más importantes de los que preocuparse en la actualidad.
845  Other / Meta / Re: Impression counts for ads over years (Statistics) on: January 02, 2020, 12:19:31 AM
It's surprising how perfectly correlated both price and logged-in users were during 2017 (I guess that's how FOMO does look like) and 2018, and how the correlation got broken for most 2019. In fact it is the 2019 stats that are surprising with that continuous downtrend even during the $14K peak which only shows an almost unnoticeable correlation.
846  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: BPIP esta online de nuevo on: January 01, 2020, 07:31:51 PM
Así es, y posiblemente resulte muy sencillo correlacionar las IP's (aparte de almacenar/comparar otros datos del "fingerprint" como sistema operativo, navegador, resolución, fuentes instaladas, etc) con el usuario en el foro en un porcentaje muy alto de los casos.

Basta con listar las IP's que más frecuentemente han consultado un perfil concreto (que normalmente será el propio) y si uno no se ha molestado en enmascarar su IP (TOR, VPN, lo que sea) para acceder a BPIP, probablemente tampoco en intercalar un número elevado de consultas "dummy" para alterar los resultados.

Esto también se aplica a, por ejemplo, tu wohats Wink

Lo mejor es asumir que cualquiera, en un momento dado, puede llegar a saber quien está detrás de un perfil e intentar que nada de lo que escribas pueda perjudicarte llegado el caso. Eso es mucho más sencillo que conseguir una anonimización perfecta, que a largo plazo es casi una utopía.

Volviendo al tema del topic, para Theymos sería muy sencillo incluir algunos de los datos que proporcionan servicios como BPIP. Si no lo hace supongo es porque su política es la de no tocar nada que esté funcionando bien. Y la verdad es que el foro, digan lo que digan, funciona bastante bien.
847  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: Moderador del foro Español on: January 01, 2020, 07:12:12 PM
Un moderador de lujo sí señor!

Bienvenido @Welsh!
848  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2020, 06:34:36 PM
Now that I know how the feedback and trust system works I was waiting for the Q4 speculation game to finish and leave some more than deserved feedback for Mic. Something that it seems most of we WOer's usually can't be arsed to do... probably because we are too busy doing important stuff watching walls and posting memes lol

Anyway.... I then read his first received feedback, "long" time ago:

Last of the V8s   2017-08-05   Reference Newbie honoured his word

It's just funny how time has passed Smiley


P.S.: Also... is that a NEUTRAL!?
849  Other / Meta / Re: Impression counts for ads over years (Statistics) on: January 01, 2020, 03:44:03 AM
Nice!

Didn't knew about https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Would it be possible to see a graph with ONLY "unique logged in users" vs price (no need to multiply or maybe just 5x) for additional clarity?

I think that could be very interesting even if very correlated as expected.

Thanks!

P.S.: Also maybe a zoom in the period Q4 2017-Q1 2018
850  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2020, 03:05:06 AM

And it carried an astonishingly powerful message.


I am sure that when Bitcoin becomes the dominant world currency and Nostradamus is long forgotten, your message will still resonate and be revered for generations to come.
851  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2020, 02:57:06 AM
Time to HODLsleep!!!! cQ is knocked out and I’m hammered as well F*****************k
Night

Good 2020


........




...........




Woooooooow






..........

Happy first HODLSEEP of the new decade for both of you Mic!  Grin
852  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2020, 01:47:23 AM
So is anyone here planning to bag the first post of the new decade and are they carefully planning it?

I will abstain as mine would probably be 'bollocks' or 'fuck off'.

Big bouncy bollocks.

But no to fuck off.

Let us be positive.

Quote
Today at 12:00:00 AM

Such precision! Much Wow!
853  Economy / Speculation / Re: Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST on: December 31, 2019, 08:01:00 PM
Use the force




PUMP PUMP PUMP!

Oh wait, your bet is on the other direction WTF Tongue
854  Economy / Speculation / Re: Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST on: December 31, 2019, 07:25:24 PM
Are we shifting???

I'd be betting on these lot now, hopium isn't working.


C'on, you can still do it, still got plenty of time! Just try harder!
855  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2019, 07:16:49 PM
Gosh, I have just now realised I don't know much words for food.

Well, I'll try anyways.... it will be mostly: seafood (shrimps, crab legs, etc), assorted canapes (?), carne mechada rellena/meatloaf (?),
iberian ham and other assorted [embutidos], assorted cheeses, ensaladilla rusa (salad?), octopus with potatoes and don't know what else. I am not much into food, I will just pick some here and there.

For drink: Almost everything but I will probably just drink red wine, champagne/cava, gin tonic and maybe some shots.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2020 WO FRIENDS!


856  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2019, 04:15:16 PM

Indeed. Only 2018 was. We have had a nice 2x for 2019. Me is fine.
857  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2019, 04:08:58 PM
Dammit, today is the end of the year party or April Fools Day...

That account has long acted like several different people are using it.

One moment he's running his little fingers up and down his shaft at the prospect of BCH, a project with massive centralisation that has been 51 percented, and on the same day he's urging Bitcoin miners to change algorithm to save decentralisation.

Make up yer fuggin mind.

I can see why someone who's been around for so long will have gone mad, most seem to eventually, but I would expect him to be disenchanted by the tsunami of shit created rather than moaning about them not being taken seriously. There's still hardly anything that expresses the slightest interest in repeating BTC's principles.

Yeah, I have long said that either (twitter incarnation of) Cobra is a huge troll, or have some personality disorder, or he shares the account with multiple people. Pick any TWO.

My pick is that he is a huge troll AND shares the account with multiple people (which love to troll too).
858  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2019, 11:36:50 PM


What kind of fuckery that is?  Huh


Oh, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY RAJA!!
859  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! on: December 30, 2019, 10:28:16 PM
I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list.

For alts and all that stuff I am sure there will be people in the know that will voice it when/if that happens.

Other alternatives would probably put an additional and unnecessary work on you.
860  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2019, 08:52:06 PM
The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

And what if the halvening is priced in... but also a drop in price before the halvening is priced in too? I mean, if you were sure that the price after the halvening were to rally BUT, at the same time, you thought there is still a possibility for a lower price before the rally starts... Wouldn't it make sense to wait a bit before going all in even if you were expecting a rise after the halvening?

So the price of the halvening may be priced in and at the same time it may not be priced in (yet)... both at the same time! There's that!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat
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